Southeast Asia Faces Heat, Haze and Water Risks as Powerful El Nino Threatens in 2026

Fire warnings arrive before the dry season peaks

Indonesia had recorded 32,637 hectares of burned land by February 2026, roughly 20 times the area recorded during the same period in 2025. With Pacific Ocean temperatures climbing, Singapore Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu warned on May 7 that a potentially powerful El Nino could bring more intense forest fires and smoke across Southeast Asia later this year.

Fu addressed more than 230 representatives from government, business and civil society at the annual Singapore Dialogue on Sustainable World Resources. She described a perfect storm of climate change and geopolitical tensions, with hotter, drier weather threatening crops and water supplies while conflict in the Middle East raises energy, fertilizer and shipping costs.

As of May 14, the developing climate threat remains a forecast. The World Meteorological Organization says El Nino could emerge between May and July 2026. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 60 percent chance of it forming during that period and continuing through at least the end of the year. Some models put the probability of a super El Nino at roughly 25 percent.

A particularly intense episode, popularly called a Godzilla El Nino, could rival some of the most destructive events in modern history and potentially push global temperatures to records in 2027. Southeast Asia would face the prospect of prolonged drought, dangerous heat, agricultural losses and smoke from burning forests and peatlands.

Indonesia and Malaysia are already reporting thousands of hotspots and hectares burned, months before the traditional dry season peak. Governments are preparing firefighting aircraft, cloud seeding operations and heat protection measures, while Singapore is studying risks to regional agriculture and scientists prepare a coral experiment in its Southern Islands.

What makes an El Nino especially powerful?

El Nino begins when trade winds over the Pacific weaken, allowing warm water to move east toward the Americas. During a typical episode, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average. That change alters rainfall and temperature patterns far beyond the ocean.

A strong El Nino involves a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The super or Godzilla description refers to warming above 2 degrees Celsius in the central equatorial Pacific. A NASA climatologist coined the Godzilla term in 2015 after judging that the developing event would surpass the infamous episode of 1997 and 1998.

Koh Tieh Yong, a climate scientist and adjunct associate professor at the National University of Singapore, expects a strong El Nino during the final quarter of 2026. He explained that the transition from neutral conditions could be followed by rapid strengthening.

Presently, it is still in the neutral phase, which means the event will emerge in the next one to two months and intensify rapidly, as strong El Ninos tend to do.

Previous super El Ninos occurred in 1982 and 1983, 1997 and 1998, and 2015 and 2016. The 2015 episode brought the worst haze crisis in recent memory, including daylong school closures in Singapore. The last strong episode, in 2023 and 2024, helped make 2024 the hottest year on record, with the global annual average exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above levels typical before industrialization for the first time.

The World Meteorological Organization says there is no evidence that climate change increases El Nino frequency. A warmer ocean and atmosphere nevertheless supply more energy and moisture to intensify the extreme weather associated with it.

When could the region feel the effects?

Singapore can expect hotter weather from July 2026 onward, according to the Meteorological Service Singapore. El Nino typically suppresses regional rainfall during the southwest monsoon. Koh expects precipitation to fall sharply between June and October 2026 and again between February and May 2027, periods that already include drier months in the southern ASEAN region.

The calendar brings several stages of preparation and risk:

• February 13 to November 30, 2026: Riau province is under an emergency alert for forest and land fires.
• Late May 2026: Researchers plan to transplant corals that resist heat into reef areas in Singapore's Southern Islands.
• May to July 2026: Forecasters identify a possible window for El Nino to emerge.
• June to October 2026: Koh warns of sharply reduced rainfall, with hotter Singapore weather expected from July.
• August to November 2026: Singapore and neighboring countries face heightened heat, reduced rainfall and haze risks.
• Final quarter of 2026: Koh expects El Nino to reach strong intensity.
• February to May 2027: Another period of reduced rainfall and heightened regional heat and haze risk is anticipated.

The strength of the event remains uncertain. Preparations must therefore address a range of outcomes, including the possibility that Pacific warming develops quickly before the end of 2026.

Reservoirs, electricity and daily heat exposure

Singapore's water experience during earlier super El Ninos illustrates the pressure a prolonged dry spell can bring. Rainfall between February and May reached historic lows in 1983, 1998 and 2016. In 2016, the Linggiu Reservoir in Johor, which supplies Singapore with imported water, fell to a record low of 20 percent capacity.

Singapore could need greater reliance on desalination plants and NEWater if similar conditions return. Desalination supplies water from the sea, while NEWater provides treated recycled water. During dry spells, NEWater is already added to national reservoirs to maintain adequate storage.

Reduced cloud cover also lets more solar radiation heat the land. Singapore defines a heatwave as three consecutive days with maximum temperatures of at least 35 degrees Celsius and daily mean temperatures of at least 29 degrees Celsius. Its last such heatwave occurred in April 2016. Meteorologists expect the coming months could bring more hot days and warm nights.

Electricity demand for air conditioning is expected to rise, adding pressure to power grids already dealing with greater cooling demand. Malaysia and Thailand are already experiencing intense heat. In Bangkok, the heat index climbed above 52 degrees Celsius earlier in May, creating risks of heatstroke and dehydration for vulnerable residents. The heat index describes how hot conditions feel when humidity is taken into account.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently announced cloud seeding operations intended to bring rain to rice growing areas affected by drought in the northern peninsula. Water shortages there connect the immediate problem of heat exposure with the longer task of protecting food production.

Why peat fires can become a regional emergency

Satellite monitoring put Indonesia's burned area at 32,637 hectares by February. Independent watchdog Pantau Gambut detected 23,546 hotspots in peatland areas from January onward, including 12,942 in March alone. March therefore accounted for more than half of that hotspot total.

Many hotspots were inside oil palm and timber concessions. Legal permission to operate on land has not ensured management that prevents fire. Farmers and plantation companies often use cheap slash and burn methods to clear land, while draining peatlands makes them highly combustible. Once ignited, peat can smolder for weeks and send toxic smoke across borders.

Riau provides examples of how a small intended burn can spread. A community fire intended to clear 4 hectares of peatland ultimately consumed 342 hectares. Another land clearing attempt in the Meranti Islands burned 632 hectares.

Bambang Hero Saharjo, a professor at Indonesia's IPB University, called for enforcement when responsibility for fires is established and checks on companies before the dry season.

If fires are proven, legal action must be taken. Corporations should undergo a compliance audit before the dry season, with action taken against those who use fire for land clearing.

Auriga Nusantara, a think tank based in Jakarta, reported that Indonesia lost 433,751 hectares of forest in 2025, a 66 percent increase from 2024 and the fastest pace since 2016. Nearly a fifth of the clearing was connected to government food and bioenergy estate programs. Converting peatlands can dry them out and create conditions favorable to fire.

Riau, the Indonesian province second closest to Singapore, has requested water bombing helicopters and aircraft for cloud seeding from Jakarta. Indonesia Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq has called for closer coordination between central and regional authorities, warning that forest fires cause trillions of rupiah in economic losses and chronic health damage.

Coral researchers prepare for renewed ocean heat

The strong El Nino of 2023 and 2024 triggered the fourth global mass coral bleaching event, affecting more than 80 percent of the world's reefs. In Singapore waters, about 44 percent of surveyed coral colonies had bleached by July 2024, and roughly 5 percent eventually died.

The stated mortality figures contain an inconsistency: mortality after that episode was also described as double the 2016 rate, although the figure given for coral deaths during the 2016 super El Nino was 10 percent.

Coral bleaching happens when stressed coral polyps expel the microscopic algae that supply their color and food. The corals turn white and, without recovery, can starve. Another widespread bleaching episode will depend on how quickly Pacific warming raises sea temperatures around Singapore, according to Huang Danwei, associate professor and deputy head of the National University of Singapore's Lee Kong Chian Natural History Museum.

Huang leads a project under the National Parks Board Marine Climate Change Science programme. In late May 2026, researchers plan to transplant corals that resist heat into reef areas in the Southern Islands, testing whether microbes that tolerate heat can help reduce bleaching.

Huang explained the potential use of the experiment if the transplanted corals fare better during the coming event.

If these test corals perform better during the El Nino event, this approach could be scaled up to mitigate bleaching on our reefs to some degree.

Warmer seas also change fish migration patterns and can reduce catches. A repeat of the 2016 marine heatwave could affect coastal communities that depend on seafood for both income and protein, extending the consequences beyond the reefs themselves.

Rice losses could meet higher farming costs

Indonesia's rice production fell by about 2.3 million tons during the first four months of the 2024 El Nino, a decline of 17.5 percent from the previous year. The 1997 and 1998 episode reduced output by up to 6 percent. A strong event in 2026 could bring similar shortfalls in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, creating risks for countries dependent on imported food.

Farmers also face higher costs before crops reach the market. Fu said the Middle East conflict has increased fertilizer and shipping costs. Disruption to shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, together with higher energy prices and supply bottlenecks, compounds the threat from heat and drought.

Fu proposed converting palm oil waste and wastewater into organic fertilizer and biogas to reduce reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets. Crop rotation, regenerative agriculture and responsible land use were also identified as ways to maintain ecological balance and support stable yields.

Singapore has commissioned a study of climate change effects on regional agriculture, with findings expected later in 2026 for sharing with ASEAN. It has also launched Singapore Food Story 2 to deepen global partnerships and cushion supply shocks.

Indonesia's national food agency says it has prepared government rice reserves in anticipation of possible disruption. Campaigners warn that access and affordability remain concerns for families with low incomes. Reserve stocks and household purchasing power are both part of the region's food challenge.

Trade rules add pressure to agricultural supply chains

The European Union will impose rules against deforestation at the end of 2026, requiring companies to show that agricultural goods sold to the bloc did not destroy forests or degrade land. Agricultural commodities account for nearly 10 percent of ASEAN exports to the EU, leaving a substantial trade exposed to rising transport costs and changing market requirements.

Indonesia Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Arif Havas Oegroseno warned that palm oil faces intensive scrutiny and regulatory conditions, while other vegetable oils grown in Europe and other advanced economies receive less attention. He described uneven green standards as a thinly veiled trade barrier rather than genuine environmental protection.

Fu warned that trade barriers introduced alongside sustainability standards could restrict commerce and leave growers, exporters and importers worse off when coordination fails. She called for robust traceability, meaning the ability to follow goods through their supply chains, because a single supplier failing to comply can damage the reputation of an entire network.

Fu presented sustainability as protection against climate and economic shocks. Collective responsibility and coordinated action, she argued, are necessary to preserve market access and investor confidence. Her call to avoid wasting a crisis placed practical changes, including turning plantation waste into useful products, within the response to both geopolitical disruption and climate stress.

Singapore will assume the ASEAN chairmanship in 2027 and intends to advance the ASEAN Power Grid, a regional carbon neutrality strategy and a circular economy framework. The approaching El Nino and the Middle East conflict will feed into that agenda during the next two years.

How governments are preparing for heat and haze

Indonesia has prioritized fire control in border regions including Riau, Riau Islands and West Kalimantan. Authorities are using helicopters for water bombing and cloud seeding to encourage rain. Health officials have issued heat and haze protocols urging vulnerable residents to limit outdoor activity, wear masks and maintain clean living habits to reduce acute respiratory infections.

Singapore has activated a national heatwave response plan that includes cooling centers across the island at community centers and indoor sports halls. Additional fans are being installed in all classrooms by 2027, and breathable uniforms have been approved for students during hot spells.

The HTX agency has developed cooling vests with ventilation systems for frontline police officers and firefighters. Residents can check heat stress levels through the myENV application before going outdoors.

Malaysia has placed Kuala Lumpur under a Level 1 heatwave alert and encouraged civil servants to work from home where possible. Shopping malls are adjusting air conditioning and ventilation, while some shared offices report surging electricity bills from continuous cooling. The Health Ministry has advised avoiding outdoor activity between 11 am and 4 pm, when temperatures peak.

Drought preparations must also account for sudden heavy rain. Andy Smith, chief operating officer of Fathom, which analyzes water risk, explained that extreme heat can fuel intense localized downpours that overwhelm drainage systems.

Things get a lot hotter, nevertheless, and this is something that is kind of a little counterintuitive, but it can also mean that localised flooding increases.

Communities could therefore face low reservoirs alongside flash floods. ASEAN's preparations depend on timely data sharing, enforcement of fire bans and resources reaching vulnerable communities before the dry season intensifies.

Key Points

• NOAA estimates a 60 percent chance of El Nino emerging between May and July 2026; some models put the chance of a super event at roughly 25 percent.
• A strong episode is expected by Koh Tieh Yong in the final quarter of 2026, with regional heat, rainfall and haze risks extending into 2027.
• Indonesia recorded 32,637 hectares burned by February, roughly 20 times the area during the same period in 2025.
• Singapore faces pressure on water supplies and cooling demand, while researchers prepare coral transplants in late May.
• Crop losses could coincide with higher fertilizer, energy and shipping costs linked to the Middle East conflict.
• Governments are preparing firefighting operations, cloud seeding, cooling centers and other heat protection measures.
• Singapore expects to share a regional agriculture study later in 2026 and will chair ASEAN in 2027.