Thailand Tourism Slowdown: The 9.2% Quarterly Decline Forecast and the Pressures Behind It

A sharp reversal in Thailand's tourism recovery

Thailand's tourism slowdown brought together several pressures: more expensive flights, disrupted aviation routes, weaker demand from China and growing concern about travel safety. Bangkok-based Kasikorn Research Center forecast a 9.2 percent fall in foreign tourist arrivals for the second quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, with arrivals expected to reach about 6.49 million.

The forecast marked a retreat from the 9.32 million foreign visitors recorded during the first three months of 2025. Tourism is a critical engine of Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, so fewer arrivals affect far more than hotels. Restaurants, attractions, transport providers and small businesses also depend on visitor spending.

Between April 1 and 5, Thailand received approximately 430,000 foreign visitors, down 2.4 percent from the same period a year earlier. That early April decline interrupted the recovery momentum described for February and March, although the March monthly total also showed a substantial fall compared with the previous year.

Natthriya Thaweevong, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, warned that a Middle East conflict lasting six months could cost Thailand as many as three million visitors in 2025. Under that scenario, annual arrivals could fall to approximately 28 million, returning to 2023 levels and falling well below the government's target of 35 million.

As of April 16, 2026, the picture described here combines forecasts and indicators from 2025 with expectations for 2026 and 2028. The central concern is how a disruption in travel demand can spread through an economy already facing pressure from household debt and weakness in other industries.

How conflict made the journey more expensive

Middle East tensions escalating from March 2025 disrupted aviation networks connecting Europe and Asia. Airspace closures over conflict zones forced airlines to reroute flights around the Strait of Hormuz region, increasing the distance aircraft had to travel and the fuel they consumed.

Airlines faced a difficult choice: operate longer and more expensive journeys, raise ticket prices, or reduce services. Fuel accounts for a substantial part of airline operating costs, and the industry works with thin margins. Higher oil prices linked to geopolitical risk, including disruption to tanker traffic around Hormuz, added to the cost of those longer routes.

Flight data analysis indicated that the volume of planned services to Thailand from several European countries in the second quarter fell by more than 10 percent compared with levels before the conflict. Some airlines canceled routes entirely instead of absorbing the extra operating costs. Fewer services also meant fewer seats available to travelers.

Thailand's tourism sector has historically benefited from affordability and easy access. Higher fares weaken both advantages: a holiday becomes more expensive, while fewer flights can make the journey less convenient. Airlines passing fuel costs to passengers and airlines withdrawing capacity can therefore produce the same result for a destination, fewer potential visitors.

Early April arrivals from the Middle East fell 33.3 percent, while arrivals from Africa declined 6.3 percent. European and Middle Eastern markets faced direct disruption from the conflict. Higher fares also affected travel from other distant markets, including Oceania and North America, spreading the pressure beyond the routes closest to the fighting.

The earthquake added another safety concern

Thailand also faced disruption in late March, when a significant earthquake struck near Bangkok, causing building collapses and temporary concern about safety. The physical damage was localized, but anxiety about visiting the country reached beyond the affected areas, particularly among Chinese travelers.

March foreign arrivals fell 8.8 percent compared with a year earlier, reaching only 2.72 million, the lowest monthly total in five months. The earthquake contributed to that decline while concerns associated with Middle East tensions were already building.

The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Report for the second quarter cited safety concerns and logistical disruptions as primary reasons for lowering its forecast for tourist arrivals in 2025. The two pressures worked through different channels: safety concerns affected people's willingness to travel, while flight disruption affected the cost and availability of reaching Thailand.

Kevin Clayton, Chief Brand Officer of Galaxy Entertainment Group in Thailand, described how travelers weigh those considerations:

Affordability and accessibility will always be key considerations for many travelers before making a decision on a vacation, but safety will always rank above all else.

Clayton's observation helps explain why lower prices alone may struggle to restore demand when visitors are worried about security. A traveler can compare fares and hotel rates, but concern about personal safety can determine whether the trip happens at all.

China's retreat deepened the downturn

China, Thailand's largest source market, presented a particularly severe challenge. Maybank Securities reported an 18 percent decline in Chinese arrivals in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Chinese arrivals fell 48 percent in March alone, a much steeper contraction than the 8.8 percent decline in total foreign arrivals that month.

Airlines adjusted their schedules as demand weakened. Seat capacity on routes between China and Thailand was projected to fall 25 percent in the third quarter, and carriers cut services throughout 2025 as advance booking data continued to show weakness.

July and August arrivals from China reached only 43 percent of their levels in 2019, before COVID-19. That left the market well below its earlier size and below already subdued expectations. A destination can receive visitors from many countries and still face a serious shortfall when its largest source market recovers this slowly.

Thailand's difficulties with Chinese demand went beyond the global pressures affecting travel destinations. The kidnapping of Chinese actor Wang Xing in January 2025 generated intense negative publicity on Chinese social media. He was abducted from the Thai border region and later found forced to work in a scam center in Myanmar.

Reports of scam centers near the border added to concern about security. Safety concerns in Thailand's southern provinces also affected Malaysian visitors. Together, these issues prompted what analysts described as a fundamental reassessment of Thailand among Chinese travelers.

Rivals gained ground as confidence weakened

Japan, South Korea and Singapore attracted portions of the Chinese outbound market that had previously favored Thailand. Competition increased at the same time that Thailand's appeal weakened, giving travelers alternatives when deciding where to spend their holiday budgets.

Maybank analyst Boonyakorn Amornsank said Chinese tourists were increasingly choosing other destinations offering comparable experiences without the perceived security risks. Airlines responded to sustained weak bookings by cutting capacity on routes between China and Thailand.

Vietnam and Japan also captured market share through targeted infrastructure investment and marketing campaigns. Thailand therefore faced two linked challenges: restoring confidence in its own destinations and competing with countries actively improving their appeal.

Fewer airline seats can make a recovery harder to translate into actual arrivals. Travelers need both the desire to visit and a flight that fits their budget and schedule. The projected 25 percent reduction in capacity between China and Thailand showed how weakness in bookings was feeding into the transport network itself.

How the pressures developed across 2025

Several events and indicators shaped the slowdown at different points in 2025. The sequence helps explain how a safety problem in one market combined with wider disruption to flights and costs.

• January 2025: The kidnapping of Chinese actor Wang Xing generated negative publicity and concern about travel safety.
• March 2025: Escalating Middle East tensions disrupted aviation routes, while a late March earthquake near Bangkok added to safety concerns.
• March 2025: Foreign arrivals totaled 2.72 million, down 8.8 percent from a year earlier; Chinese arrivals fell 48 percent.
• April 1 to 5: Approximately 430,000 foreign visitors arrived, a decline of 2.4 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.
• Second quarter of 2025: Kasikorn Research Center forecast approximately 6.49 million arrivals, down 9.2 percent from a year earlier. Maybank Securities reported an 18 percent decline in Chinese arrivals.
• Third quarter of 2025: Seat capacity between China and Thailand was projected to fall 25 percent.
• July and August: Chinese arrivals reached only 43 percent of their 2019 levels.

The figures describe different parts of the same problem. Total arrivals measure the scale of tourism, Chinese arrivals show the weakness of a major market, and airline capacity shows how much transport remained available to support a recovery.

Forecast cuts reached the wider economy

The Bank of Thailand progressively reduced its forecast for foreign arrivals in 2025 from 37.5 million to 35 million and then to 33 million. Each revision reduced expectations for the spending that international visitors would bring into the economy.

The National Economic and Social Development Council lowered its projection for economic growth in 2025 to 2 percent. The Thai Chamber of Commerce's Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking cut its forecast for growth in 2026 to a range of 1.2 to 1.6 percent. These estimates concern different years, with the cited growth projections spanning 1.2 to 2 percent.

The joint committee also warned that foreign arrivals could fall by one million over the following three months if the trends continued, potentially pushing the 2025 total below 33 million. Its warning added further pressure to expectations already reduced by the central bank.

Household debt stood at 86.8 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP, the value of goods and services produced by the economy. High debt leaves households with substantial repayment obligations at a time when weaker business activity can put incomes under pressure.

Agriculture and industry were also facing contraction. Thailand therefore had limited alternative sources of growth to offset the tourism decline. When visitors spend less, businesses serving them earn less, and the effect reaches suppliers and workers whose livelihoods are tied to that spending.

Hotels and attractions felt the strain

Pattaya and Phuket showed the pressure on businesses serving visitors with lower and middle budgets. Chinese and Russian travelers had helped fill hotels and restaurants in those resort cities, but businesses reported revenue declines exceeding 40 percent compared with 2024.

The Tourism Council of Thailand reported that the sector's Business Confidence Index fell from 83 in the first quarter to 70 in the second quarter. Analysts described the fall as abrupt. The index tracks the mood of businesses, so the decline reflected growing concern among operators about trading conditions.

Hotel occupancy averaged 48 percent in the second quarter, down from 56 percent in the first quarter. That was a fall of eight percentage points, with fewer than half of available rooms occupied on average during the second quarter.

Closures also spread through the visitor economy. Thirteen percent of entertainment venues and 9 percent of man-made attractions closed temporarily or permanently. Those closures reduced the range of businesses available to serve visitors and placed smaller operators under particular pressure.

Pakakrong Thepparak, a lecturer at RMUTSV, described the economic climate facing tourism operators as comparable to the peak of the COVID crisis. Across the sector, business revenues averaged only 45 percent of levels before the pandemic.

International tourism generated 1.75 trillion baht in revenue in 2024. The sector faced a projected revenue shortfall of 8.3 percent compared with 2019, even if recovery resumed later in 2025. For small businesses already earning far less than before the pandemic, prolonged weakness threatened survival and could permanently reduce Thailand's capacity to accommodate and entertain visitors.

Authorities turned toward spending per visitor

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports began reviewing the arrangements allowing citizens of more than 90 countries to enter without a visa for 60 days. Officials indicated a shift toward attracting visitors who stay longer and spend more, rather than concentrating on the number of arrivals.

The approach seeks to increase revenue per visitor while reducing pressure on infrastructure in popular destinations already showing signs of strain from excessive visitor numbers. A smaller number of travelers spending more can help support businesses without requiring the same increase in total footfall.

The review's final changes and implementation date were not specified. The policy discussion therefore centered on the direction of travel: longer stays and higher spending, alongside efforts to restore confidence and improve the conditions for tourism businesses.

The government also pursued short term economic support, including planned oil tax cuts and a program worth 10 billion baht to purchase bad debt from struggling households and businesses. Bad debt refers to borrowing that debtors are having difficulty repaying.

Those measures addressed immediate financial pressure, but the problems affecting tourism extended beyond cash flow. Disrupted flight routes, reduced airline capacity, security concerns and stronger competition all affected whether visitors chose Thailand and how easily they could reach it.

Recovery targets depended on restored confidence

The Tourism Council of Thailand maintained targets of 34 million to 35 million foreign arrivals for 2026 and a full rebound to 40 million by 2028. Those projections assumed that Middle East conflicts and problems with Chinese traveler confidence would be resolved, although both showed few signs of easing in the account of the slowdown.

Thailand's challenge was therefore larger than meeting a single visitor target. Restoring demand required affordable journeys, sufficient flights and confidence in safety. Supporting businesses also required spending to reach hotels, restaurants, entertainment venues and attractions whose revenues had fallen sharply.

The forecasts show why the composition of tourism mattered alongside its size. Weakness in China affected a major source of visitors, while rising fares placed pressure on distant markets. The policy shift toward longer stays and greater spending sought to protect revenue as the earlier volume targets became harder to reach.

The Bottom Line

• Kasikorn Research Center forecast a 9.2 percent annual decline in foreign arrivals for the second quarter of 2025, to about 6.49 million, compared with 9.32 million visitors in the first quarter.
• Middle East tensions increased flight distances and costs, while planned services from several European countries fell by more than 10 percent.
• Chinese arrivals fell 18 percent in the second quarter and 48 percent in March; projected seat capacity between China and Thailand fell 25 percent in the third quarter.
• The Bank of Thailand reduced its 2025 arrivals forecast from 37.5 million to 33 million. Economic growth projections were 2 percent for 2025 and 1.2 to 1.6 percent for 2026.
• Second quarter hotel occupancy averaged 48 percent. Thirteen percent of entertainment venues and 9 percent of man-made attractions closed temporarily or permanently.
• Authorities reviewed visa arrangements and prioritized longer stays and higher spending. The Tourism Council of Thailand targeted 34 million to 35 million arrivals in 2026 and 40 million in 2028.