China and the United States Race Toward the Moon’s Most Valuable Ground

A contest focused on the lunar south pole

China and the United States are preparing for a new phase of lunar exploration, with both countries targeting the moon’s south pole as the likely site of future bases. The region contains deep craters that never receive sunlight, creating extremely cold areas where water ice may have survived for billions of years.

That ice could become the most valuable resource in space. By heating lunar soil, astronauts may be able to extract water for drinking, split it into oxygen for breathing, and produce hydrogen and oxygen propellant for spacecraft. A usable supply would reduce the need to launch every kilogram of water and fuel from Earth.

The competition is gaining urgency because China has set a goal of sending its astronauts to the moon by 2030 and has spent years developing a coordinated lunar program. NASA’s Artemis program also aims to return astronauts to the lunar surface, with current plans targeting the south pole. Repeated changes to the American schedule, along with technical problems affecting private lunar landers, have raised concerns in Washington about whether the United States can arrive first.

The issue is larger than a single landing. The country that gathers the best data, develops reliable transport systems and establishes a lasting presence could gain influence over how lunar activity is organized for decades.

Why Chang’e-7 matters

China’s Chang’e-7 mission is expected to be the next major test of its lunar ambitions. The mission is designed to send an orbiter, lander, rover and a small hopping vehicle to the south polar region. Its planned target is near Shackleton Crater, a 21 kilometer wide formation whose high rim reaches close to the lunar south pole.

No spacecraft has yet landed directly at the moon’s south pole. Chang’e-7 would therefore enter largely unexplored terrain, where steep slopes, deep shadows and limited lighting make navigation difficult. The mission is expected to spend time in lunar orbit before attempting a landing, then deploy surface vehicles to study the ground and search for ice.

The rover will use cameras, radar and scientific instruments to examine the surface and subsurface. The hopping vehicle is designed to use rocket thrust to travel between locations, potentially reaching permanently shadowed craters. It may cover distances of up to 15 kilometers in separate jumps and carry a drill for testing soil that has never been exposed to sunlight.

Norbert Schorghofer, a senior scientist at the Planetary Science Institute, described the mission as a first in lunar exploration because no landed spacecraft has previously been sent specifically to locate water on the moon. A successful mission could give China the strongest available set of measurements about the amount, depth and distribution of polar ice.

The water may be useful, but it is not easy to reach

Scientists have detected signs of hydrogen and possible water deposits at the lunar poles, yet the size and form of those deposits remain uncertain. Ice could appear in relatively accessible layers, though researchers also believe it may be mixed into lunar soil at low concentrations. Extracting it would require machines that can operate in darkness and temperatures only a few dozen degrees above absolute zero.

Permanent shadows create a difficult working environment. Solar panels cannot produce power in the dark craters, communications can be blocked by crater walls, and equipment must survive severe cold. A base would likely need to operate from a nearby ridge or sunlit area while sending robotic tools into the cold traps.

The science also matters beyond settlement plans. Ancient ice may preserve information about how water reached the moon, whether from comets, asteroids or particles carried by the solar wind. Samples could help researchers study the history of water in the wider Earth and moon system.

China’s mission will carry instruments from several partner countries, including Thailand, Egypt, Switzerland, Bahrain and Italy. A small telescope built by institutions connected to the University of Hong Kong and an observatory group in Hawaii is also scheduled to photograph the Milky Way from near Shackleton Crater. The international equipment shows that China’s lunar program is attracting partners even as cooperation between Beijing and Washington remains restricted.

Two different ways to reach the moon

The United States is using NASA, commercial companies and a series of increasingly difficult Artemis missions. Artemis II carried four astronauts around the moon in April 2026, marking the first crewed journey to lunar distance in more than half a century. The flight tested the Orion spacecraft and key systems needed for later surface missions.

NASA still lacks a crewed lander that has carried astronauts to the lunar surface. The agency has hired SpaceX and Blue Origin to develop Starship and Blue Moon landers. Both designs face major engineering tasks, including the need to transfer large amounts of cryogenic fuel between spacecraft in Earth orbit before a lunar landing. That process has never been completed in space.

NASA is also relying on commercial companies for robotic missions. Astrobotic Technology’s Griffin lander is planned for a south polar mission in late 2026, after earlier American landers experienced trouble during lunar touchdowns. NASA has also planned the VIPER rover to search for polar resources, although its schedule depends on a lander and launch systems that still require testing.

China is pursuing a more centralized design. Its planned human lunar architecture uses two launches, one for a crew spacecraft and one for the Lanyue lander. The two vehicles would meet in lunar orbit, without the in space refueling required by NASA’s current approach. China has not yet flown all parts of that system, though tests of navigation, propulsion and sensing systems have already taken place.

Patrick Besha, a former NASA strategic adviser who studies China’s space program, has said that the remaining Chinese technical problems appear manageable. The country has maintained a steady focus on lunar exploration since the Chang’e program began in 2004, while NASA’s priorities and budgets have shifted across presidential administrations.

Prestige, security and national identity

A human landing would carry scientific value, though it would also serve as a major display of national capability. The United States used the Apollo program to demonstrate technological strength during the Cold War. China now links its space program to a wider national goal of becoming a leading power in science and technology.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called the creation of a strong space power an eternal dream. Chinese officials have also said they intend to achieve the first landing of Chinese astronauts by 2030. The country’s lunar program takes its name from Chang’e, a moon goddess in a story that has been part of Chinese culture for thousands of years.

Former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine has pointed to a lack of transparency in China’s space program while also saying that Chinese agencies have generally met the milestones they announce. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman has called China a major competitor across space and other areas. He has expressed confidence that the United States can meet its current lunar target, even while warning that China is capable of reaching the moon first.

Clayton Swope of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies has described the deeper goal as a future in which people are born, work and die away from Earth. That would make a lunar settlement more like a small city than a short scientific expedition.

"The long term vision will take generations to execute on," Swope said. "There are people being born, people dying, their families, children growing up in a place that is not Earth."

That vision explains why lawmakers and defense officials view lunar activity through a security lens. A base would require power, communications, landing areas and transport routes. Even a facility created for science could become part of a broader national infrastructure network.

Rules for lunar resources remain unsettled

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits countries from claiming the moon as national territory. It says outer space and celestial bodies cannot be appropriated through sovereignty, occupation or other means. The treaty does not provide equally precise answers about mining, power plants or protected operating areas.

The United States promotes the Artemis Accords, a set of principles signed by 70 countries. The accords support the use of space resources and allow temporary safety zones around operations, provided those zones are presented as measures to prevent harmful interference rather than territorial claims. China, Russia and several close partners have not signed the agreement.

That distinction may become difficult to maintain if several missions seek the same crater, landing site or ice deposit. A spacecraft could damage another mission with engine exhaust, dust or a collision during descent. Space lawyer Michelle Hanlon has said that the treaty requires nations to act with due regard for other activities. NASA recommends that spacecraft land at least two kilometers apart, though a recommendation is not the same as a binding global rule.

Mining could create a sharper dispute. Water ice may support life and fuel production, while lunar soil contains materials such as silicon, aluminum and titanium. Helium-3 is also discussed as a possible resource for future energy or computing technologies, though commercial use remains far beyond current capabilities.

"If you can’t appropriate it, how do you own it?" Swope said, describing the tension between the treaty’s ban on territorial claims and the practical need to protect a working facility.

China generally states that its lunar activities will serve peaceful purposes and comply with international law. Chinese researchers have also spoken about using lunar minerals. The difference between legal resource use and an unofficial claim of control may depend on how nations behave on the ground, especially if one country arrives first at a valuable site.

Competition may draw in more countries

The lunar contest is not limited to Washington and Beijing. China’s planned Chang’e-8 mission is expected to carry Pakistan’s Jinnah-1 rover to the lunar south polar region around 2029. The roughly 35 kilogram rover is intended to study lunar soil, radiation, plasma and terrain. Pakistani specialists are expected to control it after landing.

Chang’e-8 is also expected to test the use of lunar soil in construction, including techniques related to three dimensional printing. Russia, Türkiye, South Africa, Italy and other partners are expected to participate. China has described a future International Lunar Research Station as a science facility that could begin with robotic operations and later support people.

Russia has discussed a possible role in providing nuclear power for that station. Nuclear systems could supply steady energy in places where sunlight is limited, though the technical, political and transport challenges are substantial. China has also discussed a human landing in 2030, followed by increasingly capable robotic and crewed missions.

The United States has its own network of commercial and international partners. NASA’s approach gives private companies a larger role in building landers, delivering cargo and eventually supporting a lunar economy. That model could move quickly when a company succeeds, though it can also produce delays when a vehicle fails or funding changes.

Space policy experts caution that a first landing will not decide who controls lunar exploration for generations. Building reliable power, transport, habitats and scientific facilities will require repeated missions and stable budgets. Competition may speed up those efforts, while communication between rival programs could reduce the risk of accidents.

What the next milestones will show

Chang’e-7 will be the clearest near term test of China’s ability to operate several robotic vehicles in one of the moon’s hardest environments. Its findings could guide landing site choices for later missions and reveal whether polar ice is concentrated in useful deposits or scattered through difficult soil.

For NASA, the key tests will include the performance of commercial landers, the readiness of Starship and Blue Moon, and the agency’s ability to keep Artemis on schedule. A successful crewed flight around the moon is a major achievement, though reaching the surface will require a safe landing, reliable spacesuits, surface power and a plan for returning astronauts home.

The two countries may eventually operate in separate areas, since the south pole is large enough to contain several missions. That arrangement would still require shared procedures for landing distances, radio interference, emergency assistance and the protection of scientific sites.

The first space race ended with a flag and a return trip. The current contest is aimed at creating infrastructure that can remain active after the first astronauts leave. Water, power and access to safe terrain will matter more than a single photograph of a crew standing on the surface.

Key Points

• China’s Chang’e-7 mission is designed to search for water ice near the lunar south pole.
• The mission will use an orbiter, lander, rover and hopping vehicle to study difficult polar terrain.
• NASA’s Artemis program also targets the south pole, though its crewed landing schedule faces technical risks.
• Lunar ice could provide drinking water, breathable oxygen and rocket fuel.
• The Outer Space Treaty bans national ownership of the moon, while rules for mining and safety zones remain disputed.
• Pakistan and other countries are joining China’s wider lunar program through future missions.
• The contest will be decided by sustained infrastructure and cooperation as much as by the first human landing.