Why a fragile truce is reshaping the critical minerals trade
China has moved to suspend a swath of export controls on critical minerals and rare earth related technologies for shipments to the United States, a pause that officials say will last one year. The decision, announced by the Ministry of Commerce, follows high level talks in Busan on October 30 between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. It opens a narrow window for American manufacturers to obtain materials used in semiconductors, defense systems, batteries and advanced manufacturing, while a broader tariff truce takes hold.
- Why a fragile truce is reshaping the critical minerals trade
- What changed in Beijing’s export policy
- The deal in Busan, what both sides gave and got
- Why these minerals matter to chips, defense and clean tech
- What is still restricted, and where confusion remains
- How quickly will supplies resume for U.S. companies
- Global ripple effects for automakers and energy projects
- Risks that could break the truce
- How industry is reducing exposure
- Key Points
The pause covers new rules rolled out on October 9 that would have restricted exports of certain rare earth elements, lithium battery materials, magnet and processing equipment, and other inputs across high tech supply chains. Beijing has also reversed previous retaliatory limits on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and industrial super hard materials such as synthetic diamonds and boron nitrides. In parallel, China is suspending stricter end user and end use verification for shipments of dual use graphite to the United States.
In exchange, Washington agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods by ten percentage points and to pause a planned escalation of reciprocal tariffs until November 10, 2026. The United States also said it would postpone a rule announced on September 29 that would have added majority owned subsidiaries of Chinese firms to a trade blacklist. The moves mark a de escalation after months of tit for tat measures that rattled suppliers, automakers and defense contractors around the world.
What changed in Beijing’s export policy
China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would suspend for one year a group of export controls that were set to tighten through December. Those October 9 measures targeted a long list of rare earth related products and manufacturing tools, lithium battery inputs and technologies used in semiconductor and solar production. The ministry also said it would reverse earlier curbs imposed in December last year on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and several super hard materials used for cutting, polishing and thermal management in chipmaking and aerospace.
Officials classify many of these minerals as dual use items, meaning they can serve both civilian and military purposes. Gallium is essential for gallium nitride and gallium arsenide chips found in radio frequency components and power electronics. Germanium is used in fiber optics, infrared optics and some solar applications. Antimony strengthens alloys and appears in munitions and in some rechargeable batteries. Synthetic diamonds and boron nitrides are building blocks for cutting tools and heat spreaders. China also softened an extra layer of checks for exports of graphite, a key anode material in lithium ion batteries.
The one year pause, not a permanent removal
Despite the fanfare, the relief is temporary. The ministry suspended the new October rules for a year, it did not announce a permanent rollback. Chinese officials have signaled that they will issue licenses for some shipments, but have not specified how long those licenses will last or what technical details companies must submit. A separate set of restrictions unveiled on April 4 remains in force, including tight licensing for seven rare earth elements and high strength magnets made from them, and an outright ban on exports for military applications.
The deal in Busan, what both sides gave and got
Negotiators framed the mineral reprieve as part of a broader package. On the Chinese side, the one year pause on the October rules, a reversal of the December limits on gallium, germanium, antimony and super hard materials, and a softening of graphite checks were bundled with commitments to curb shipments of certain fentanyl precursor chemicals to North America and to ease bottlenecks that had held up legacy auto chips tied to a Chinese owned supplier. On the American side, the tariff reduction, the suspension of a planned tariff hike through late 2026 and a delay to a rule that would have expanded the entity list were central concessions. Chinese customs also reinstated permissions for several American agricultural exporters, including soybean shippers and log exports.
The White House cast the truce in sweeping terms, saying China would lift export restrictions on rare earths and issue general licenses covering gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite for American end users and their suppliers.
In a public fact sheet, the administration used emphatic language about the outcome.
The agreement is a massive victory that safeguards U.S. economic strength and national security.
Why these minerals matter to chips, defense and clean tech
Critical minerals sit at the core of modern production. A single fighter jet contains hundreds of kilograms of rare earth compounds. Electric vehicles need rare earth magnets in motors and graphite rich anodes in their batteries. Smartphones, data centers and 5G base stations draw on gallium, germanium and high performance ceramics to process signals and manage heat. Constraints on any of these inputs force manufacturers to rework designs, change suppliers or slow production. China processes most of the world’s rare earths and supplies a large share of the magnets used in electric motors, while the United States still imports the bulk of its rare earth feedstocks from China.
Semiconductors and telecom
Gallium enables high efficiency power electronics and radio frequency chips, underpinning fast charging, radio units and radar. Germanium appears in fiber optic systems and in certain advanced photonics. The resumption of steady flows of these elements can ease pressure on chip foundries and telecom gear makers. Licensing and customs reviews still matter. Companies will watch closely to see whether Chinese officials issue broad licenses that cover routine shipments or whether officers handle approvals on a case by case basis.
Batteries and clean energy
Graphite is the dominant anode material in lithium ion batteries. China dominates processing of natural and synthetic graphite, and had recently added onerous reviews on end users, which slowed transfers. By suspending the extra checks for shipments to American customers, Beijing may speed up movement of battery materials across the Pacific. Any meaningful disruption in graphite supplies would ripple through electric vehicle manufacturing and grid scale storage projects. Rare earth magnets also sit inside wind turbines and electric drivetrains, so a pause in broader rare earth controls can help maintain clean energy deployment schedules.
Defense and aerospace
Rare earth elements are used in small amounts in a wide range of defense systems, from precision guided munitions to avionics. Super hard materials, including synthetic diamonds and boron nitrides, are fundamental to machining advanced alloys and protecting sensitive electronics from heat. Antimony is used in some ammunition and in flame retardants. The military relies on commercial supply chains for many of these inputs. Any new license rule or export curb can constrain programs quickly, given long qualification cycles for new materials.
What is still restricted, and where confusion remains
The one year relief does not sweep away China’s broader control system. The April 4 regulations that added seven rare earth elements and some magnets to a control list are still active. Those rules require foreign buyers to disclose extensive technical information and restrict licenses to short windows, often six months. They also prohibit exports for military end use. Manufacturers in the United States and Europe continue to report tight supplies of high performance magnets for motors and robotics, despite the pause on the newer October rules.
A key point of ambiguity is licensing. American officials described China’s commitment as issuing general licenses that would, in effect, remove most day to day friction on shipments of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite. Chinese officials have said licenses will be issued, but have not detailed the scope, duration or the compliance burden. In past practice, export permits could take around forty five days and required substantial disclosures. Industry executives expect approvals to move faster under the truce, yet they remain cautious until they see permits arrive and cargo clear customs without delays.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who had warned that the October 9 controls were a severe threat to supply chains, praised the decision to suspend them for a year. He argued that the original package would have disrupted factories far beyond the United States.
The October rules were a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world.
How quickly will supplies resume for U.S. companies
For many American buyers, the first test comes with licensing queues. Exporters in China apply for permits, and officials review end users and end uses. During the height of the trade fight, approvals for U.S. customers were slow, and some applications had little chance of success. The truce changes that calculus. Chinese officials are expected to prioritize routine requests and shorten review times. Companies that prepared documentation in advance may see decisions within weeks rather than months.
Shipments will still need to move through logistics networks that remain stressed. Gallium and germanium tend to travel in small, high value shipments, while graphite and magnet inputs move in bulk. Freight costs and insurance are manageable compared with the risk of policy reversals. Many procurement teams will hedge by building buffer inventories and by qualifying at least one additional source outside China, even if prices are higher. A sustained decline in risk will depend on a clear, written licensing framework and consistent processing at provincial commerce offices and customs.
Global ripple effects for automakers and energy projects
The truce contains a chip specific clause with direct consequences for carmakers. Beijing agreed to take steps that would allow a Dutch owned semiconductor subsidiary with Chinese operations to resume exports of legacy microcontrollers and power devices used in vehicles. Automakers that had struggled to secure those parts during periodic shortages could benefit if the commitment results in uninterrupted shipments from factories inside China. That relief would complement the improved availability of gallium and germanium for telecommunications and power management chips.
Energy and industrial firms will also reassess project timelines. Wind turbine makers and electric drivetrain producers reliant on rare earth magnets may accelerate orders if they gain confidence that shipments will not be blocked at short notice. Battery makers will watch graphite rules closely, since any shift back to strict classifications would choke anode supply lines. Outside the United States, European companies face a similar challenge, and some continue to report difficulty sourcing magnets even with the latest pause in controls.
Risks that could break the truce
The package is fragile. Past episodes show that new controls can arrive with little advance notice, and that approvals can slow even without new rules. Any renewed escalation by either side on technology restrictions or sanctions would invite a response that targets sensitive materials. Chinese authorities recently issued a notice known as Announcement No. 62 that expanded rare earth oversight to products containing even small amounts of these elements by value, a reminder that the rulebook can change quickly and reach across global supply chains.
There are also signs that restrictions could shift to other materials. Policy chatter inside China has pointed to potential tightening on metals such as tungsten, silver and antimony in coming years. If the pause ends without an extension, or if controls migrate to adjacent inputs, American and allied manufacturers would again face difficult choices about pricing, design and inventory.
How industry is reducing exposure
Companies are not waiting for policy certainty. Some automakers and electronics manufacturers are striking long term supply agreements with miners outside China, including in Australia, North America and Africa. Others are redesigning motors to use fewer rare earths, or qualifying ferrite based magnets where performance allows. Battery producers are testing silicon rich anodes to reduce dependence on graphite. Recycling programs for magnets and electronics are expanding, though volumes remain small compared with demand.
Governments are also working to build resiliency. The United States is funding magnet, graphite and battery projects under recent industrial policy laws, while allies in Europe and Asia are mapping critical supply chains and setting procurement standards for vendors considered high risk. None of these efforts will remove China from the equation soon. They can, however, give buyers more options if controls snap back or if approvals slow.
Key Points
- China suspended for one year a set of October 9 export controls on rare earth related items, battery inputs and manufacturing equipment for shipments to the United States.
- Beijing also reversed earlier curbs on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and super hard materials, and suspended extra verification checks on graphite exports to the United States.
- The relief follows an October 30 meeting in Busan between President Trump and President Xi, and comes alongside a tariff truce.
- Washington lowered tariffs on Chinese imports by ten percentage points, paused a planned tariff hike until November 10, 2026, and delayed a rule that would have expanded the entity list to more Chinese subsidiaries.
- The White House described China’s move as issuing general licenses for rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite, while Chinese officials have not clarified the scope or duration of those licenses.
- Separate April 4 controls on seven rare earth elements and magnets remain in effect, keeping licensing requirements and an export ban for military end use.
- Industry expects faster approvals, possibly shorter than the roughly forty five day timeline seen during the trade fight, but is waiting to see how customs handles shipments.
- The truce also includes steps to curb fentanyl precursor exports to North America and to restore the flow of legacy auto chips from factories in China.
- Supplies to defense, chipmaking and clean energy could improve in the near term, yet the truce is vulnerable to new disputes or slow licensing.
- Manufacturers are diversifying suppliers, redesigning products and expanding recycling to reduce exposure if controls return.