South Korea weighs 2035 emissions cuts as climate ambition meets industry concerns

Two targets, one demanding decade

South Korea is weighing two options for its 2035 climate pledge: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 60 percent, or by 53 to 60 percent, from 2018 levels. As of November 7, 2025, the proposal still needs review by the Presidential Commission on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth and the Cabinet before submission to the United Nations.

The difference between the two options is their minimum commitment. Both retain a ceiling of 60 percent, but the second would require a larger reduction even if the country falls short of that upper goal. The decision carries consequences for electricity generation, factories, vehicles, investment, jobs, constitutional rights and exports.

South Korea emitted 742.3 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2018. A reduction of 50 percent would bring that figure to roughly 371.2 million tons by 2035, while a reduction of 60 percent would bring it to about 296.9 million tons. Estimated emissions of about 691.6 million tons in 2023 illustrate the distance still to travel.

The country already committed in 2021 to cut emissions by 40 percent by 2030, a target that has proved difficult to meet. Its next pledge would extend that effort while requiring a faster transformation over the following five years.

Environmental organisations want a minimum reduction of 61 percent by 2035, arguing that South Korea should do more than the global average because of its wealth and emissions history. Business groups warn that even a target in the high 40 percent range would be difficult without financing, practical sector plans and regulatory changes. The central dispute is therefore about both the size of the promise and the means of delivering it.

What the proposed range would mean

The government's proposal is a nationally determined contribution, or NDC, the formal climate plan a country submits under the Paris Agreement. Officials describe the common upper limit of 60 percent as demanding but potentially achievable if technologies spread quickly enough and supporting policies arrive on time.

The government has also outlined how different sectors could contribute. Draft figures circulated during the public hearing process point to power sector reductions of roughly 69 to 75 percent by 2035, transport reductions from about 50 percent into the low 60 percent range, and industrial reductions in the mid to high 20 percent range.

Electricity would take the largest early share of the effort. Heavy industry would face smaller percentage cuts, reflecting concerns about international competition and the readiness of cleaner production technologies. The proposals envisage more renewable energy, faster expansion of electricity networks, wider use of electric and hydrogen vehicles, and investment in efficiency and technologies that reduce emissions.

Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan said the range was intended to accommodate competing demands from civil society and business while moving the economy toward net zero by the middle of the century. Net zero means balancing remaining greenhouse gas emissions with removals.

We presented it in the form of a range, rather than a single target, to find a balance between civic groups and industry.

Kim also described the scale and urgency of the reductions needed over the next decade.

We must cut greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade by an amount three to four times what we have reduced so far. With the sense of urgency that the remaining ten years are our golden time for survival, we will accelerate a major transition across all sectors.

Officials note that several economies have used ranges in their next climate pledges, presenting them as a way to accommodate uncertainty while retaining ambition. Critics fear that the minimum will become the target pursued in practice, making the choice between a 50 percent and 53 percent floor especially consequential.

Why environmental groups want at least 61 percent

Environmental organisations, including the Korean Federation for Environmental Movements, are calling for a minimum reduction of 61 percent from 2018 levels by 2035. Some civil society platforms propose 65 percent.

Their argument draws on the first Global Stocktake, completed in 2023. This assessment of collective progress under the Paris Agreement concluded that global net greenhouse gas emissions must fall by about 60 percent by 2035 from 2019 levels to keep a warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach.

South Korea's proposed target uses 2018 as its starting point, while the global figure uses 2019. Environmental groups also argue that a national contribution should reflect responsibility and ability to act. They describe South Korea as a high income economy with large historical and current emissions within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, and say fairness requires it to exceed the global average.

Civil society groups connect that demand to domestic and international legal developments. They argue that a floor below 60 percent risks falling short of constitutional protections and the international standard for ambitious climate action.

The range itself is another concern. Investors deciding where to build clean energy projects, and local governments planning infrastructure, need a clear understanding of the emissions limits the country intends to meet. Activists warn that a broad range could weaken accountability if policy settles around its lower boundary.

Courts add pressure to the decision

South Korea's Constitutional Court recognised a constitutional right to protection from the climate crisis in August 2024. It found the 2030 plan insufficient to safeguard fundamental rights and pressed the government toward targets grounded in science and fair sharing of the burden.

The ruling also shapes the debate over the years after 2030. Lawmakers are moving to legislate a national emissions reduction pathway for 2031 to 2049. That pathway will need to match or exceed the 2035 pledge and provide predictable annual milestones rather than leaving the intervening years without a clear direction.

The International Court of Justice added another legal reference point in a 2025 advisory opinion. It stated that countries have limited discretion when setting climate pledges under international law and must make them as ambitious as possible in line with the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal and national capabilities.

The opinion explained that insufficiently ambitious pledges can amount to an internationally wrongful act. It also described obligations to prevent serious climate harm and warned that weak contributions may breach legal duties and trigger responsibility to other states.

Environmental groups see these developments as grounds for a stronger minimum target. A floor aligned with the temperature goal and fairness would reduce litigation risk, while a lower floor could invite further domestic lawsuits and international scrutiny.

The legal and policy sequence spans several years:

• 2018: South Korea emitted 742.3 million metric tons, the baseline for its national reduction targets.
• 2021: The country pledged to reduce emissions by 40 percent by 2030.
• 2023: The first Global Stocktake called for global net emissions reductions of about 60 percent by 2035 from 2019 levels.
• August 2024: South Korea's Constitutional Court issued its climate ruling.
• 2025: The International Court of Justice issued its advisory opinion on climate obligations.
• November 7, 2025: South Korea was considering the two target ranges before commission and Cabinet review and submission to the UN climate secretariat.
• 2026: The European Union's carbon border mechanism is scheduled to begin applying a charge based on emissions associated with covered imports.
• 2031 to 2049: Lawmakers are preparing an emissions pathway for the period leading toward net zero by the middle of the century.

Industry asks how the cuts would be delivered

Automotive, steel, petrochemical and business associations across sectors warn that a stronger target could put production and jobs at risk if policy, finance and infrastructure fail to keep pace. They point to the difficulty of meeting the existing 2030 pledge and ask for detailed plans before another steep reduction is added.

Automotive groups focus on the speed of vehicle replacement. Industry projections circulated during the debate estimate that a national target in the mid 50 percent range for 2035 would require cumulative registrations of nearly 9.5 million vehicles with zero emissions by 2030, roughly one third of the country's fleet.

Domestic electric vehicle sales have slowed in recent years. Industry groups say charging networks, electricity connections and the time it takes owners to replace vehicles are lagging behind the pace assumed in the scenarios.

Steelmakers face a different challenge. Blast furnaces produce steel through a process that generates substantial carbon emissions. Alternatives include electric arc furnaces and direct reduced iron made using hydrogen, but changing production capacity requires large investments and time.

Steel and petrochemical companies want clear guidance for their sectors, predictable deadlines, tax credits, concessional finance, faster permits for clean energy and infrastructure, and support for early projects that demonstrate new processes at commercial scale. Concessional finance provides more favourable borrowing terms to help investments proceed.

A senior business official discussing the balance between climate targets and competitiveness urged the government to moderate the pace.

There is no need to move ahead of others and face a headwind in environmental regulation. We need to adjust the pace.

Business groups also warn about supply chain strain and the risk of losing margins if domestic firms move faster than competitors without adequate support. Their position puts the design of government assistance alongside the headline reduction figure as a central issue in the negotiations.

Models identify routes to a 60 to 61 percent reduction

A joint study led by Solutions for Our Climate, with partners at the University of Maryland, used the Global Change Analysis Model to examine South Korea's options. It found that a reduction of 61 percent by 2035 was technically feasible through a conservative pathway centred on proven measures.

The scenario phases out coal power, avoids construction of new power plants using liquefied natural gas, expands solar and wind with energy storage, electrifies transport and moves steelmaking away from blast furnaces. It deliberately limits reliance on technologies with greater uncertainty, including carbon capture at large scale and burning hydrogen or ammonia alongside other fuels in power generation.

A separate assessment using an integrated model compared current Korean policies with a more ambitious package. Its current policy scenario produced only a reduction in the mid 30 percent range by 2035 relative to 2018, below even the existing pledge of 40 percent by 2030.

The stronger policy package produced a pathway to roughly 60 percent by 2035 without international offsets, which are emissions reductions outside the country counted toward a national target. Faster deployment of offshore wind, a firm end to coal generation, restrictions on extending blast furnace capacity, and stronger building efficiency and electrification standards were central to that result.

The studies identify speed and coordination as the practical challenge. Their routes rely on equipment and policy tools already used in other markets, while requiring South Korea to install them and organise investment much faster.

The measures span the economy:

• Retire all coal power plants by 2035 and cancel proposed new gas capacity, alongside rapid expansion of solar, wind and energy storage.
• Invest in electricity networks, shorten connection queues and use storage and demand response to manage changing renewable output.
• Expand electric arc steelmaking using scrap, begin hydrogen direct reduced iron pilots and create demand for steel produced with lower emissions.
• Electrify passenger vehicles, buses and delivery fleets, with charging networks, fleet targets and fuel efficiency standards for vehicles that still burn fuel.
• Strengthen building codes, fund substantial renovations and expand heat pumps in homes and commercial buildings.
• Upgrade emissions trading and carbon pricing to encourage reductions at the lowest cost and finance support for workers and communities.

Electricity networks sit at the centre of the transition

The power sector's proposed reduction of roughly 69 to 75 percent makes electricity the backbone of the wider plan. Cleaner electricity would also support emissions cuts as vehicles, buildings and industrial equipment switch away from fuels burned on site.

The independent pathways call for binding coal retirement dates and financing for communities affected by closures. They also call for reassessing new gas projects so that investments in equipment expected to operate for many years fit the 2035 trajectory.

Solar and wind would have to expand faster than current plans envisage. Battery storage and demand flexibility would help the system manage periods when renewable generation rises or falls. Demand response means adjusting electricity use to help balance supply and demand.

Permitting, land use rules and transmission capacity are major constraints. Faster approvals, better sharing of benefits with local communities and upgraded networks would be needed to connect new projects at the pace implied by a national reduction of 60 percent.

Factories, vehicles and buildings need practical plans

Heavy industry accounts for a large share of South Korea's carbon dioxide emissions. Steel producers can expand electric arc capacity using scrap and prepare for hydrogen direct reduced iron where scrap supplies are limited. Public purchasing of materials produced with lower emissions could help create a market for those investments.

Chemical producers can reduce emissions through efficiency, electrified heat and changes to production processes. Government support could include loan guarantees and contracts for difference that bridge the price gap between cleaner products and conventional alternatives, sharing the financial risk of early projects.

Transport plans require charging expansion, electricity connections at depots and apartment buildings, and clear fleet requirements and incentives for faster vehicle replacement. Buses and delivery vehicles are part of the transition alongside private cars.

Hybrids can reduce fuel use during the transition, while the longer trajectory requires vehicles with zero emissions to take a large share of new sales well before 2035. Public transport, urban planning and more efficient logistics can also reduce travel and freight demand, easing the pressure on vehicle sales targets.

Buildings would need stronger standards for new construction, faster renovations of existing properties and wider adoption of heat pumps. Those steps would cut gas demand and peak loads. Cities could use public purchasing, district energy systems and building performance standards to guide investment and support suppliers of efficient equipment.

Lower energy demand across buildings and transport would make the electricity transition easier. The sector plans therefore need to work together rather than treating each emissions target as an isolated task.

Exports give clean energy an economic role

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism adds a trade dimension to the debate. From 2026, it will apply a charge to imports based on embedded emissions, meaning the emissions associated with producing the goods.

Korean companies selling into the European market face pressure to reduce the emissions in their products. Global buyers are also prioritising supply chains with lower emissions in batteries, steel and shipbuilding, all sectors in which South Korea seeks growth.

A credible target backed by delivery policies could attract private capital and support export opportunities. Recent polling of Korean business leaders indicates broad support for a rapid move to a power system based on renewables within a decade, suggesting that many firms view clean electricity as part of their competitiveness strategy.

Industry concerns and demand for cleaner power therefore exist together. Companies want access to electricity with lower emissions while also seeking financial and regulatory support to manage the cost of changing production.

Approval must be followed by delivery

The government plans to finalise the target after review by the Presidential Commission on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth and the Cabinet, then submit it to the UN climate secretariat. Public hearings are underway, and a choice between the two floors is expected soon. No exact approval or submission date was given.

The pledge will shape sector plans expected in the coming year, including updated power supply plans and transport road maps. National Assembly legislation for the 2031 to 2049 pathway will also need to align with the new commitment.

The first signal will be the minimum reduction chosen. A floor of 53 percent, combined with strong sector plans, would send a firmer commitment than 50 percent. Delivery would then depend on coal retirement schedules, decisions on new gas capacity and investment in electricity networks.

Transport details will matter just as much: excise tax policy, fleet requirements, charging funding, and rules for buses and trucks will determine how quickly electrification proceeds. Industrial finance, public purchasing standards and emissions trading reforms will influence whether cleaner factories move from planning to construction.

Annual budgets, public progress dashboards and contingency plans would make performance easier to track and help the country respond to economic disruption. South Korea's decision is about setting a destination and building a credible route to reach it within the remaining decade.

At a Glance

• South Korea is considering reductions of 50 to 60 percent or 53 to 60 percent by 2035 from 2018 levels.
• The 2018 baseline was 742.3 million metric tons. A reduction of 50 percent means roughly 371.2 million tons; 60 percent means about 296.9 million tons.
• Estimated emissions were about 691.6 million tons in 2023, and the existing pledge requires a reduction of 40 percent by 2030.
• Environmental groups seek at least 61 percent by 2035, with some proposing 65 percent.
• Industry groups warn about costs, jobs, infrastructure and technology readiness, and seek detailed plans and financial support.
• Modelling identifies pathways to reductions of 60 to 61 percent through cleaner electricity, industrial changes, transport electrification and efficient buildings.
• Domestic and international court findings add legal pressure, while the EU carbon border charge adds trade pressure from 2026.
• Commission and Cabinet review, UN submission, sector plans and legislation for 2031 to 2049 are the next steps.