Japan’s debate on foreign labor enters a new phase
Public support for actively accepting more foreign workers in Japan has swung in the past year. A nationwide mail in survey conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun and Waseda University’s Institute for Advanced Social Sciences found that 59 percent of respondents oppose or somewhat oppose a policy of actively bringing in foreign labor. That reverses the balance seen in late 2024, when supporters of a more open intake outnumbered opponents. The new results, collected after the July House of Councillors election, point to a harder mood on borders and identity at a moment when the economy is under pressure and household budgets are tight.
Respondents cite two anxieties most often. Sixty eight percent believe public safety will deteriorate if the number of foreigners living in Japan rises. Sixty three percent anticipate trouble due to differences in language, culture, and customs. Yet the same survey shows ambivalence. A majority, 61 percent, say accepting foreign workers helps alleviate persistent labor shortages. The picture is of a country that recognizes the economic need, while becoming more cautious about how to manage social change.
Those cross currents are colliding with demographic reality. Japan’s foreign resident population hit a record 3.77 million at the end of 2024. Employers continue to recruit from abroad as the working age population shrinks. Unemployment remains low and there are still more job openings than applicants, even after a slight cooling. At the same time, politics around foreigners has sharpened. Younger respondents are more anxious about safety than older voters, and new conservative forces are making immigration control a centerpiece. The ruling party has leaned into order and compliance, reflecting public unease even as industry warns of labor gaps. The survey period, from late September to late October, spanned the transition to a new cabinet and captured a rise in country first sentiment.
What the new survey tells us
The headline number captures a reversal. Fifty nine percent oppose or somewhat oppose active acceptance of foreign workers. In late 2024, a larger share favored active acceptance than opposed it. The shift also comes with sharper views on the consequences of a larger foreign presence. The top two concerns, safety and social friction, dominate the list of perceived impacts. Yet a core economic benefit, easing labor shortages, ranks third and draws support from a majority. The data suggest that many voters hold both risk and benefit in mind.
When pollsters asked whether national interests should be prioritized over international cooperation, 70 percent agreed or somewhat agreed, the highest share since the question was first posed in 2017. On security, 67 percent support strengthening defense capabilities, down slightly from 2024. Dissatisfaction with national politics is unusually high. Eighty eight percent call themselves dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied, and for the first time since tracking began in 2018, a majority, 52 percent, say they prefer change over stability in national leadership. Despite that mood, the Liberal Democratic Party still tops the list of parties that respondents would like to see form a government, followed by centrist and reformist rivals.
The survey, administered by mail to 3,000 voters nationwide with 2,004 responses returned, covered the period from September 24 to October 31. That timing matters. It straddled the end of one cabinet and the formation of another, and it followed a summer campaign when opposition parties pressed for clearer positions on foreigners and public order. In that context, public attitudes registered a tilt toward caution and a preference for stronger control, even while acknowledging the labor market need.
Generational splits
Age differences run through the findings. Among those aged 18 to 39, 79 percent believe public safety will deteriorate if foreign resident numbers rise, compared with 72 percent of those aged 40 to 59 and 59 percent of those aged 60 and over. By contrast, older respondents are more upbeat about the benefits of accepting foreign workers. Among those aged 60 and over, 67 percent say foreign workers help alleviate labor shortages, compared with 60 percent of those in their forties and fifties and 53 percent among those 18 to 39. Younger Japanese are more likely to endorse national interest first positions as well, with a notable 54 percent in the 18 to 39 cohort expressing sympathy for an America First style stance, compared with 28 percent overall.
Academic research helps explain these patterns. A recent nationally representative study found that both economic threat, such as job competition and wage pressure, and cultural threat, such as fears about social norms and crime, are associated with negative feelings toward foreign workers. Concerns about the aging of the population softened resistance only slightly. The same research notes variation by worker type, with some survey respondents expressing warmer views of lower skilled workers, who are most visible in industries that face acute shortages. That mix of views echoes the national poll’s combination of worry about social friction with acceptance of labor market benefits.
Crime, safety and the perception gap
Public safety tops the list of concerns in the new poll. Yet official statistics and independent analyses have not shown a surge in crime by foreign residents in recent years. Researchers who track government data point out that the share of welfare recipients who are foreigners, roughly 3.2 percent, is close to their share of the population. They also note a decline in reported crimes involving foreign nationals. The perception of rising danger does not align perfectly with the evidence.
There are plausible reasons for the gap. A post pandemic tourism boom has flooded popular destinations and transit lines, making foreign visitors and residents much more visible. Social media amplifies violations of norms and isolated incidents into national talking points. Policymakers have responded when specific problems grab attention. Rules for converting foreign driver licenses are being toughened, with a new 50 question knowledge test and a higher pass mark from October 1, 2025, and temporary visitors will no longer be able to convert. The government also created the Office for the Promotion of an Orderly and Cooperative Society with Foreigners to coordinate responses across ministries.
Attitudes toward fairness shape the debate too. A recent public broadcaster poll found a majority agreeing with the statement that foreigners are favored in Japanese society. That sentiment, combined with tight budgets and a sense of national risk, gives traction to enforcement first policies. Closing genuine loopholes helps. So does publicizing how most foreign residents work, pay taxes, send children to school, and follow the rules.
The labor market reality
Japan’s labor market remains tight by global standards. The unemployment rate rose to 2.6 percent in August, with the job to applicant ratio easing to 1.20, its lowest since 2022 but still indicating more openings than job seekers. Chronic shortages are widespread, especially outside big cities and in physically demanding or lower wage sectors. From January to August this year, 237 companies filed for bankruptcy citing lack of labor, up about 22 percent from a year earlier. Employers have raised pay, and minimum wages are climbing, but some firms cannot match rising costs.
Policymakers acknowledge the limits of mobilizing domestic labor alone. The central bank has signaled that expanding the workforce through higher participation by women and older people is reaching its ceiling. With domestic pools near their limits, employers lean more on foreign hires to keep factories running, care homes staffed, and crops harvested.
Senior economist Masato Koike of Sompo Institute Plus has argued that demand for foreign labor will remain even if hiring cools at the margins. He sees a constrained but still tight market and points to the tension between public caution and business need.
‘The strong labor market might be starting to lose some steam. Public opinion may make it difficult to actively open the door to more foreign workers, but there is also strong demand from industry.’
Companies in care, construction, food processing, manufacturing, agriculture, logistics, and hospitality rely heavily on foreign staff. Government figures show a record 2.3 million foreign workers in the job market as of last October. That is separate from the broader foreign resident population, which includes family members, students, and long term residents not in employment. Employers are adjusting with more training, higher pay, and better housing to attract and retain international staff, but many say they still struggle to fill shifts.
Policy after the 2018 reform and what is changing now
Japan’s immigration framework underwent a major shift in 2018, when lawmakers created the Specified Skilled Worker (SSW) categories and opened defined pathways for less qualified workers to take jobs in shortage fields. That reform broke decades of deadlock by centralizing decision making in the prime minister’s office. It allowed employers to recruit more systematically while keeping strict caps and screening. Yet integration policy has lagged admission policy. Municipal services, schools, and workplaces have had to improvise.
The political vocabulary reflects that caution. Leaders rarely use the word immigration. They speak about foreign human resources, trainees, and high skilled specialists. The approach emphasizes temporary labor, even as Japan’s demographic math points to a lasting foreign resident presence. The foreign population is growing and diversifying, with more people from Southeast and South Asia and a mix of students, trainees, and highly skilled professionals. Naturalization remains strict, and many long term residents choose permanent residency instead of citizenship.
Since 2024, the policy mix has tilted toward tighter compliance while sustaining the economic role of foreign workers. The ruling party promoted a Zero Illegal Foreign Residents initiative. Officials are tightening the rules for driver license conversion, proposing limits on certain property purchases by foreign buyers, and moving to share information across welfare and immigration agencies to identify residents who are behind on taxes or health insurance premiums. The government also launched a cross ministerial office to respond to issues that arise from a larger foreign resident population, from traffic to neighborhood disputes to hospital access.
National messaging vs local integration
Local leaders have asked Tokyo to think beyond enforcement. Mayors and governors run the programs that make coexistence work in practice, such as language classes, school counseling, community orientation, and help desks at city halls. All 47 prefectural governors have called for a Basic Law on Intercultural Coexistence to acknowledge that foreign residents are members of their communities and to set clearer responsibilities. National messaging tends to emphasize control, but on the ground the challenge is service delivery and inclusion.
Economics meets politics
Immigration has moved closer to the center of party politics. New conservative forces surged in the July 2025 upper house election by tapping dissatisfaction with living costs and frustration over public order. The ruling party also stressed tighter rules for foreigners to reassure wary voters. Inside the party, leadership contenders toughened their language on compliance while promising to keep the economy moving. That balance reflects the core tension of the moment, a tight labor market that needs foreign workers and a public wary of rapid change.
The new survey sits atop a wider political shift. Eighty eight percent of respondents are unhappy with national politics. For the first time since 2018, a majority say they favor change over stability. Even so, the LDP remains the first choice to form a government for the largest share of voters. Security concerns are running high, with 67 percent favoring stronger defense. On foreign residents, younger voters lean more toward nationalism than their elders. Fifty four percent of those aged 18 to 39 say they sympathize with a country first stance symbolized by America’s former president, compared with 28 percent overall.
Scholars caution that once immigration becomes a partisan wedge, policy can swing toward punitive measures that catch legal residents along with those without status. Japan’s experience already reflects strict attitudes toward unauthorized migration. Two decades ago, a government survey found a majority supporting deportation of those without status. With the economy under strain and migration more visible globally, hard line approaches gain traction. The risk is that short term political gains come at the expense of labor supply, social cohesion, and Japan’s international standing.
What could shift opinion
Trust is the missing piece. The gap between how many people think safety will deteriorate and what the data show has widened. That can change. Transparent, timely reporting on crime, welfare use, tax compliance, and school attendance by foreign residents helps crowd out rumors. Consistent enforcement against genuine violations, applied fairly to all residents, reassures voters that rules matter.
Integration reduces friction in daily life. Language access in hospitals and city offices lowers misunderstandings. Community policing that solves practical problems, such as noisy garbage disposal spots or cycling rules, builds confidence. Tourism management that spreads visitors beyond a few hot spots reduces crowding that fuels resentment. Companies can help by training managers and staff in cross cultural basics and by setting clear workplace standards.
Conditions at work shape public views too. International labor research finds strong support among the public for preventing violence and exploitation of migrant women and for improving conditions in domestic and care work. Policies that raise standards and protect rights can attract the talent Japan needs while assuaging fears that expanding foreign labor comes with disorder. Clearer pathways for skills development and recognition also reduce churn and help both employers and workers plan.
Demographics give this debate its urgency. Japan’s population is aging and shrinking. Even with higher wages and more flexible work, the domestic labor pool is not enough in many sectors. The choice is not whether to accept or reject foreigners in the abstract. The practical task is to make coexistence work, to enforce rules fairly, and to invest in services that allow communities and newcomers to settle into daily routines.
Key Points
- Fifty nine percent oppose or somewhat oppose actively accepting more foreign workers, reversing the late 2024 balance.
- Top concerns are safety and social friction, but 61 percent say foreign workers help ease labor shortages.
- Younger respondents are more anxious about safety, while older respondents are more positive about labor benefits.
- Seventy percent prioritize national interests over international cooperation, the highest since 2017.
- Dissatisfaction with national politics is 88 percent; 52 percent prefer change over stability; the LDP remains the top choice to form a government.
- The labor market remains tight, with a 2.6 percent jobless rate and a job to applicant ratio of 1.20; there are a record 2.3 million foreign workers.
- Japan’s 2018 reform opened pathways for specified skilled workers, but integration policy lags admission policy.
- Authorities are tightening compliance, including driver license conversion, tax and insurance checks, and a new cross ministerial office on coexistence.
- Researchers cite official data showing crime by foreigners has declined and welfare use aligns with population share, pointing to a perception gap.
- Experts expect continued reliance on foreign labor, even as public caution grows and politics emphasize control.
