South Korea's University Crisis: Falling Births Put Dozens of Campuses at Risk

298,178 First Graders Signal a Smaller Future for Universities

South Korea's Ministry of Education projects that just 298,178 children will enter elementary school this March, taking the number below 300,000 for the first time in recorded history. For universities already struggling to recruit students, that smaller class points toward a deeper contraction as those children move through school and eventually reach college age.

The country's universities and colleges offering courses lasting two years maintain annual admission quotas for 450,000 to 500,000 students. Yet only around 250,000 children are born each year, and the fertility rate has fallen to 0.7 children per woman, the world's lowest. The fertility rate describes the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime under prevailing birth patterns.

South Korea operates 331 universities and colleges. Since 2000, 22 institutions have closed permanently. At a recent general assembly of the Korean Council for University Education, a survey found that more than 60 percent of university presidents expected over 30 universities offering degrees lasting four years to close within the next decade.

Yi In-sill, president of the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future, described the current difficulties as the beginning of a much larger decline.

What we're seeing now is just the start,

Projections indicate that elementary school entry will shrink faster between now and 2030 than it did during the previous five years. That leaves universities facing two pressures at once: fewer students to recruit today and an even smaller pool moving toward their campuses in the years ahead.

The consequences reach beyond education. Regional campuses provide jobs, bring customers to nearby businesses and give young people a reason to stay outside Seoul. Their closure can weaken communities already dealing with aging populations and economic stagnation.

How Expansion Became Excess Capacity

South Korea's university network grew during the education fever of the 1980s and 1990s, when families placed enormous importance on academic credentials. Demand for higher education rose rapidly, and the government encouraged private institutions to expand because it lacked the resources to meet that demand through public universities alone.

South Korea now has one of the highest rates of participation in higher education among countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. An extensive university network once helped accommodate that demand. As younger generations become smaller, the same network leaves institutions competing for students who are no longer there in sufficient numbers.

The Korean Council for University Education's Research Institute of Higher Education projects a 39.1 percent decline in university entrants by 2040, from 460,000 in 2020 to approximately 280,000. If admission quotas remain unchanged, its projection would leave 200,000 university places unfilled nationwide.

Deputy Education Minister Jang Sang-yoon offered an even lower estimate last November, putting the prospective student pool at roughly 170,000, or about 320,000 when international students and adult learners are included. His figures show how much the recruitment outlook depends on whether universities can attract people beyond the traditional group of recent school graduates.

The main dates and milestones trace a long expansion followed by a growing contraction:

• 1980s and 1990s: Education fever drove rapid growth in university capacity, supported by private institutions.
• Since 2000: Twenty-two universities and colleges have closed permanently.
• 2020: University entrants numbered 460,000, the starting point for the research institute's projection.
• 2025: Forty-nine school closures were scheduled across 17 cities and provinces.
• This March: The ministry projects 298,178 children entering elementary school.
• By 2030: Elementary entry is projected to decline faster than during the previous five years.
• By 2040: The research institute projects approximately 280,000 university entrants.

Why Regional Campuses Face the Greatest Pressure

Universities in greater Seoul can admit approximately 180,000 students each year. That capacity gives the capital region a powerful advantage as the national student population contracts, while institutions elsewhere face a much more difficult struggle to fill classrooms.

Lee Sang-lim, a demography expert at Seoul National University's Population Policy Research Center, described a scenario in which 70 percent of a generation of 250,000 goes to college and those students concentrate in the capital region. That would mean about 175,000 students, fewer than the roughly 180,000 places available around Seoul.

Lee warned that this concentration could leave regional institutions without enough students to survive.

If 70% of students go to college and they all flock to the capital region, that's it,

Regional universities will simply vanish.

Lee forecasts that some provinces may eventually retain only three to five universities. Such a reduction would narrow local education choices and increase pressure on young people to move to the capital.

Ministry of Education figures already show a geographic divide at school level. Seoul has no schools facing closure, while rural areas account for 88 percent of the 49 closures scheduled across 17 cities and provinces in 2025. North Jeolla Province has the largest number, with 16, followed by South Jeolla Province with 15.

North Gyeongsang Province has 42 elementary schools with no first graders enrolled for March. South Jeolla Province has 32. For regional universities, empty entry classes in nearby schools are an early signal that their future recruitment base is shrinking.

Why Struggling Private Universities Stay Open

Eighty-four universities are described as zombie universities: institutions unable to recruit enough students and kept operating through government subsidies despite insolvency. Their continued existence reflects financial difficulties, legal restrictions and the resistance that accompanies any proposal to close a campus.

Private institutions make up the majority of South Korea's higher education sector. The private school law was enacted decades ago to prevent founders from abusing institutional finances. Under the legal arrangement described by university representatives, assets such as land and buildings become vested in the government when private universities close.

Kim Sung-ki, a professor at Hyupsung University, identifies that treatment of university foundations' assets as a central obstacle to reform.

According to the current law, the assets of university foundations become vested in the government [upon closure].

Foundations therefore face a strong financial disincentive to begin voluntary closure procedures, even when maintaining the institution becomes increasingly difficult. A campus may keep operating because the consequences of shutting it are unattractive to its owners.

Choi Kyu-bong, secretary general of the Korea Association of Private School Foundations, argues that the legal arrangement fails to account for the demographic forces behind falling recruitment.

The reason universities cannot recruit students is the demographic decline, and that is not a cause attributable to the universities themselves,

Faculty and staff also resist reductions in admission quotas and campus mergers because these changes threaten their jobs. Students worry that attending a shrinking institution will reduce the value of their degrees and damage their career prospects. Together, those concerns create political pressure that makes government action difficult.

Can International Students Keep Campuses Open?

Universities have increasingly recruited international students as domestic enrollment falls. The global popularity of Korean culture and the government's glocal university initiative have helped drive a substantial increase in foreign enrollment.

Yi In-sill sees international recruitment as a genuine opportunity for stronger institutions. She also argues that weaker universities should be allowed to close, rather than requiring every campus to pursue the same survival strategy.

Lee Sang-lim takes a more skeptical view, describing international recruitment as a temporary measure that postpones the underlying demographic problem. Universities may bring in more students from abroad, but the decline in the domestic student population continues.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed another vulnerability. Border closures disrupted international movement and showed the risks facing universities that depend heavily on students coming from other countries.

Some institutions have also admitted international students without adequate Korean or English language skills. Students who cannot follow the language of instruction face difficulties learning, while universities face problems maintaining academic standards.

International recruitment therefore offers different prospects for different campuses. A stronger university may be able to build a sustainable overseas intake, while an institution already struggling with finances and teaching quality faces a more difficult task. That uneven outlook sits behind Yi's argument for supporting viable institutions while allowing others to close.

Tuition Restrictions and Changes to Courses

South Korea's tuition freeze has remained largely in place for more than a decade following major student protests in 2012. The policy addressed concerns about the cost of university education, but it has also strained institutions' finances as enrollment falls.

Private universities are particularly exposed to the combination of fewer students and limited room to adjust fees. A shrinking intake reduces the number of people paying tuition, while maintaining classrooms, facilities and staff continues to cost money.

Yi In-sill argues for loosening tuition regulations so institutions can make necessary fee adjustments. She pairs that proposal with expanded scholarships for students from families with low incomes, rather than keeping tuition suppressed across all institutions.

Some universities have changed what they teach to attract applicants. Humanities and language departments have been closed in favor of artificial intelligence courses and vocational training. Other institutions have developed cooperation with industry and internship opportunities intended to make their courses more attractive to students.

Those changes address what prospective students want to study and how they hope to find work. They leave universities in remote regions facing the same demographic arithmetic: a more appealing course still needs enough students to fill it.

Empty campuses illustrate the limits of changes to fees, recruitment and course design when several institutions are competing for a steadily smaller local population. For those universities, the question of survival increasingly becomes a question of restructuring or closure.

What Closure Means for Students and Communities

Students enrolled at a closing university face uncertainty about completing their education. Government plans would transfer them to other regional institutions, but moving to a different campus may disrupt their studies and require them to adjust to a new academic environment.

Some students may drop out rather than relocate or make that transition. Their concerns are immediate: where they will study, whether they can continue their chosen course and how the closure will affect their prospects after graduation.

Faculty members, administrative employees and service workers also face job losses. In small cities where a university is a major employer, the loss of a campus can affect households and businesses far beyond the university grounds.

Dr. Jisun Jung of the University of Hong Kong notes that the disappearance of students from small university towns has economic effects beyond campus boundaries. Fewer students mean fewer customers for businesses that depend on the university population.

Closed institutions also leave substantial buildings and land behind. Dormitories, classrooms and research facilities can remain idle when there is no clear plan to put them to another use.

The experience of school closures shows the scale of that problem. Of the 4,008 elementary, middle and high schools closed since 1980, 376 remain unused, and 266 have been abandoned for more than a decade. The 376 unused sites represent about 9.4 percent of all those closures, while the 266 sites abandoned for over a decade account for roughly 71 percent of the unused total.

Communities face deterioration and wasted resources when former education sites remain empty. If provinces also lose most of their universities, young people will have fewer local study options and stronger reasons to leave for Seoul, further weakening areas already struggling with population decline.

Japan's Restructuring Approach Draws Attention

Japan faces similar demographic pressures, and South Korean researchers have pointed to its approach as a possible model for managing university contraction.

Japan's Grand Design for Higher Education toward 2040 established procedures for closing marginal universities. Those procedures include restructuring periods of approximately three years, followed by compulsory closure if an institution cannot revive.

Kim Jung-ho, a professor at Inha University, considers Japan's approach relevant to South Korea because the two countries share demographic challenges. A defined restructuring period gives a struggling university time to attempt recovery while setting a point at which its future must be decided.

Japan's strategy also includes different levels of support according to an institution's efforts to adapt, rather than treating all struggling universities alike. Lee Derk-nan, a researcher for the National Assembly Research Service, calls for consistent policy and graduated assistance based on how institutions respond.

The proposals point toward a more selective use of public support. Universities making credible efforts to adapt could receive assistance suited to those efforts, while campuses unable to recover would face an orderly closure process.

Proposals for a More Orderly Exit

Shin Sung-wook of the Catholic University of Pusan proposes direct financial grants to university foundations that voluntarily close their institutions. The idea addresses foundations' concerns about losing their assets, which currently discourage them from initiating shutdowns.

Other proposals draw on examples in Europe and the United States, where university facilities have been sold or repurposed for new commercial uses. South Korea would need changes to its legal framework to permit such conversions.

Nam Doo-woo, an assistant professor at Inha University, calls for a stronger division between institutions capable of growing and those that should close.

Rather than moderate restructuring measures, we need to implement a strong restructuring plan separating universities that can grow from those that should be closed,

His proposal would concentrate resources on stronger universities while helping others shut down in an orderly way, instead of spreading limited funding across failing campuses.

No date is given for adopting these proposed changes. Students, employees and communities would need arrangements that address transfers, job losses and the future use of university property as part of any closure process.

South Korea's challenge is to manage a university system built for much larger generations. The figures connect that task to decisions already being made in schools, campuses and provincial communities: how to support institutions with a viable future, how to close others and how to protect people whose education or livelihoods depend on them.

Key Points

• The Ministry of Education projects 298,178 elementary school entrants this March, the first total below 300,000.
• Universities and colleges maintain 450,000 to 500,000 annual admission places, while births total around 250,000 a year and the fertility rate stands at 0.7.
• South Korea has 331 universities and colleges; 22 have closed since 2000.
• More than 60 percent of university presidents surveyed expect over 30 universities offering degrees lasting four years to close within a decade.
• Research projects university entrants falling from 460,000 in 2020 to approximately 280,000 by 2040, a decline of 39.1 percent.
• Greater Seoul has capacity for approximately 180,000 entrants annually, leaving regional campuses especially exposed to falling student numbers.
• Eighty-four universities are described as struggling institutions kept operating through subsidies despite insolvency.
• Legal restrictions, tuition limits and resistance to job losses complicate mergers and closures.
• International recruitment and new courses offer opportunities, but regional institutions still face shrinking domestic demand.
• Proposals include restructuring periods, selective support, grants for voluntary closure and changes allowing university property to be reused.