Seoul Gains from Tokyo’s Pain: How Lunar New Year Travelers Redrew Asia’s Tourism Map

The Unexpected Journey: One Family’s Pivot

When Tang Junjie booked flights to Japan months in advance, he envisioned showing his family the neon-lit streets of Tokyo and the ancient temples of Kyoto during China’s record breaking Lunar New Year holiday. The 22-year-old from Sichuan province had already visited Japan three times solo, making it his preferred destination for overseas travel. Yet diplomatic storms have a way of disrupting even the best laid plans.

By February 2026, Tang found himself standing in Incheon International Airport with his family, their luggage still packed for a Japanese adventure that would never happen.

“The original plan was to transit through Seoul on our way to Japan. But the airline could not refund the tickets at the time, so we decided to stay in Seoul and not continue on to Japan.”

His family joined thousands of Chinese tourists who unexpectedly found themselves exploring South Korea instead, transforming what began as a travel inconvenience into an unintended windfall for Seoul’s tourism industry.

Tang’s story illustrates a broader regional realignment. During the nine day Lunar New Year period beginning February 15, Chinese travelers faced a stark choice: proceed with Japan itineraries against official warnings, or pivot to alternatives. The answer became clear as booking data revealed a seismic shift in regional travel patterns, with South Korea emerging as the unexpected victor in a high stakes geopolitical contest.

A Diplomatic Spark Ignites Travel Chaos

The roots of this travel upheaval trace back to November 2025, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made statements in parliament suggesting that Tokyo could respond militarily to a potential conflict involving Taiwan. Characterizing such a scenario as a “survival-threatening situation,” Takaichi signaled a hardening Japanese stance that immediately triggered a fierce reaction from Beijing.

Within days, China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued an advisory urging citizens to avoid traveling to Japan “for the time being.” The Ministry of Education followed with a parallel warning for students considering study arrangements in Japan. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning explained that Takaichi’s “wrongful remarks” had “seriously hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and poisoned the atmosphere for people-to-people exchange between China and Japan.”

The diplomatic fallout proved swift and severe. Chinese airlines including Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, Hainan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Sichuan Airlines announced special ticket-handling policies allowing free changes and refunds for Japan-bound flights. While these policies offered relief to travelers, they also effectively dismantled months of tourism planning, forcing thousands to seek alternatives.

By the Numbers: The Great Shift Eastward

Data from travel platforms and government agencies paints a stark picture of the redirection. According to online travel agency Qunar, South Korea overtook Japan to become the top outbound destination for Chinese travelers by flight ticket volume during the November 15-16 weekend, marking the first time in months that Japan had lost its leading position. Seoul consistently ranked first in flight search volume throughout the period.

The Lunar New Year holiday amplified these trends dramatically. Travel analytics firm China Trading Desk estimated that between 230,000 and 250,000 visitors from mainland China would arrive in South Korea during the nine day holiday, representing a 52% increase from the previous year’s celebration. Conversely, Japan braced for a devastating 60% drop in Chinese arrivals during the same period.

Flight statistics reveal the structural transformation of regional air travel. Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium showed that scheduled flights between mainland China and South Korea surged nearly 25% year over year to more than 1,330 for the holiday period. In contrast, flights from China to Japan plummeted 48% to just over 800. According to Flight Master, weekly flight volumes on China-South Korea routes reached 1,012 by early January 2026, recovering to 97.2% of 2019 levels, the highest recovery rate among major international routes.

Hotel booking data confirmed the surge. Tongcheng Travel reported that reservations for Seoul jumped more than 240% year on year in late November, while demand for rooms during the New Year holiday period increased threefold compared to 2025. The Korea National Tourism Organization reported that South Korea received 17.42 million foreign visitors between January and November 2025, up 15.4% from the prior year, with mainland Chinese visitors accounting for nearly 30% of the total.

Why Korea Won the Lottery

Several converging factors transformed South Korea from a backup option into a premier destination. Economic fundamentals played a decisive role. The Korean won has become Asia’s worst-performing currency in recent months, weighed down by interest rate gaps with the United States and equity outflows. Between July and December 2025, the Chinese yuan gained 9.4% against the won, making South Korea significantly more affordable for budget-conscious Chinese travelers.

Subramania Bhatt, CEO of travel marketing firm China Trading Desk, captured the dynamic succinctly. The weaker currency combined with political tensions created a unique opportunity for Seoul.

“The weaker won has made South Korea a better-value destination for Chinese travellers at the same time Japan has become politically ‘expensive’.”

This currency advantage combined with South Korea’s aggressive visa policies to create a compelling value proposition. While Japan required visas for most Chinese tourists, South Korea extended visa free entry arrangements for Chinese group tourists, removing a major friction point.

Cultural factors also drove the shift. The global phenomenon of Korean pop culture, from K-dramas to K-pop music, has created what industry observers call “cultural resonance” that encourages repeat visits. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung noted at a recent business forum that “finishing work on Friday and flying to China is becoming a new trend among young Koreans,” highlighting the two way nature of the tourism revival. Additionally, the enduring popularity of destinations like Zhangjiajie in Hunan province among Korean tourists, and the celebrity of giant panda Fu Bao in Sichuan, creates mutual tourism interests that strengthen bilateral travel flows.

Geographic proximity further cemented South Korea’s advantage. For travelers from northern and eastern China, Seoul represents a shorter flight than Tokyo, with minimal time zone differences. The combination of visa free group travel, weak currency, cultural familiarity, and short flight times created what Wu Liyun, a professor at Beijing International Studies University, described as a “decisive” policy effect that pushed two way tourism into a new phase.

Beyond Air Travel: Cruises Chart a New Course

The travel shift extended far beyond commercial aviation, fundamentally restructuring Northeast Asia’s cruise industry. An escalating diplomatic rift between China and Japan redrew cruise routes across the region, diverting vessels that traditionally called at Japanese ports toward South Korean destinations. Industry players have dubbed 2026 the “Korea Season,” marking an unprecedented consolidation of cruise capacity on Korean itineraries.

Cruise lines sailing from mainland China pivoted almost exclusively to South Korean ports including Busan, Jeju Island, and Incheon. This created an unusually high density of ships offering similar four to six night itineraries. Royal Caribbean International redirected its Spectrum of the Seas to emphasize onboard entertainment including amphitheater shows and robotic bartenders, while MSC Cruises highlighted partnerships with pastry chefs and LEGO experiences aboard MSC Bellissima to differentiate their Korean routes. Adora Cruises shifted deployment entirely to South Korea for the first quarter of 2026.

The initial Lunar New Year period saw strong demand for these Korea-focused sailings, with family cabins selling out rapidly and prices reaching seasonal peaks. However, industry data reveals early signs of strain as the market transitions into spring. Interior cabin rates on some mainstream ships have dropped to approximately CNY 1,799 per person ($260) for March and April departures, suggesting that while the “Korea Season” solved the immediate problem of avoiding Japan, it may face sustainability challenges if too many vessels chase the same limited port capacity.

Tokyo’s Pain: Empty Streets and Canceled Plans

While Seoul celebrates its windfall, Japan faces its first tourism decline since the pandemic recovery began. According to Japan National Tourism Organization data, overall foreign visitor arrivals fell 4.9% in January 2026 compared to the previous year, marking the first year on year decline since January 2022. The drop was driven almost entirely by a 61% collapse in visitors from mainland China, which fell to just 385,300 arrivals.

The economic impact extends beyond raw numbers. Chinese visitors accounted for 21.2% of Japan’s total inbound spending in 2025, making them the largest source of tourism revenue by nationality. With Chinese travelers staying away, Japanese retailers and hospitality businesses face a significant revenue gap. Shoji Imai, who manages a kimono rental shop in Tokyo’s Asakusa district, noted the falloff in Chinese tourists but expressed cautious optimism. “We still have customers from countries like Thailand and Singapore so overall sales have not changed much,” he said.

However, broader economic indicators suggest deeper challenges. Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, predicted the decline in Chinese visitors would persist, drawing parallels to the 2012 diplomatic chill between the two nations, which required 15 months for recovery.

“If this situation drags on, the impact on the Japanese economy could be substantial.”

Major travel agency JTB forecasts that Japan will see its first decline in foreign tourist arrivals since the pandemic in 2026, with numbers dropping 2.8% to 41.4 million.

The timing exacerbates the pain. The Lunar New Year shift to mid-February in 2026 (rather than late January in 2025) compressed the traditional peak season, while Chinese airline policies extending free cancellation through March 2026 suggest the downturn will continue through the first quarter. Japan Tourism Agency Commissioner Shigeki Murata acknowledged cancellations by Chinese tourists during the New Year period, though he maintained that visitors from other countries were offsetting the losses.

Walking the Tightrope: Seoul’s Diplomatic Balancing Act

South Korea’s tourism bonanza arrives amid complex geopolitical maneuvering that requires careful navigation. While the China-Japan spat delivers economic benefits, Seoul finds itself walking a diplomatic tightrope between its security alliance with Tokyo and its economic relationship with Beijing.

President Lee Jae-myung has moved to strengthen ties with China, meeting with President Xi Jinping twice in approximately two months, including a visit to Beijing that marked the first by a South Korean leader since 2019. China has reciprocated with unusual gestures, including Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning publicly criticizing Japan over the Dokdo islets territorial dispute, effectively siding with Seoul against Tokyo. This represents a departure from Beijing’s previous stance of avoiding direct comments on the sensitive issue.

Analysts view these moves as Chinese efforts to prevent the Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral security framework from advancing too far. Kang Jun-young, a China expert at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, observed the strategic implications.

“By publicly criticizing Japan over the Dokdo issue, Beijing appears to be signaling subtle support for Seoul’s position. China is expected to continue making similar gestures to draw Korea closer, as it worries that prolonged tensions with Japan could undermine its influence in East Asia.”

Yet Seoul must avoid appearing to exploit Tokyo’s difficulties or align too closely with Beijing against Washington. Yang Ki-ho, a professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University, warned that the tensions, currently centered on tourism, are likely to spill over into trade and economic issues.

“Boosted by strong approval ratings early in her term, Takaichi is unlikely to back down. Both countries appear to be preparing for a prolonged standoff.”

For South Korea, maintaining strategic ambiguity while capitalizing on the tourism influx presents a delicate challenge.

The New Rules of Chinese Outbound Travel

The dramatic shift from Japan to South Korea reveals evolving priorities among Chinese travelers that will reshape regional tourism for years to come. According to Dragon Trail Research surveys of mainland Chinese travel agents, three factors now dominate destination selection: safety, visa accessibility, and direct flight connectivity. These pragmatic concerns have overtaken traditional motivators such as sightseeing, shopping, and cultural appeal.

Safety ranked as the single most decisive factor, with nearly four in five agents saying it has an “extreme impact” on customer decision-making. Visa free or visa friendly entry policies followed closely, cited by more than half of respondents. The findings point to a more risk-aware Chinese outbound market, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and shorter booking windows.

This explains why destinations beyond Korea have also gained traction. Thailand continues to attract visitors with visa free access, though safety concerns following recent incidents have tempered growth. Russia introduced visa free entry for stays up to 30 days, prompting sharp increases in flight bookings. Even distant destinations like Germany and Spain saw hotel booking increases exceeding 300% compared to the previous year, as travelers seek geographic diversification.

For South Korea, the challenge now lies in converting crisis-driven demand into sustainable growth. Industry experts have called for longer term bilateral visa free arrangements beyond the current group tour limitations, deeper regional cooperation, and better promotion of cultural heritage through modern marketing channels. As Professor Wu Liyun observed, “Further policy coordination and product innovation would be key to sustaining the momentum.” The tourism map of Asia has been redrawn, but whether the new borders remain depends on diplomatic developments and Korea’s ability to maintain its newfound appeal.

Key Points

• South Korea overtook Japan as the top destination for Chinese tourists during the Lunar New Year 2026 holiday, with arrivals expected to increase 52% year over year to 230,000-250,000 visitors.
• Chinese visitor arrivals to Japan plummeted 61% in January 2026, marking Japan’s first tourism decline since 2022 and costing the country its largest source of inbound spending.
• The shift was triggered by diplomatic tensions following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 remarks regarding potential military response to a Taiwan conflict, prompting Chinese travel advisories against visiting Japan.
• A weak Korean won, which fell 9.4% against the Chinese yuan between July and December 2025, combined with visa free policies for Chinese group tourists, made South Korea a cost effective alternative.
• The cruise industry has consolidated routes into a “Korea Season,” redirecting capacity from Japan to South Korean ports including Busan, Jeju Island, and Incheon.
• South Korea faces diplomatic complexities in balancing its economic gains from Chinese tourism against its security alliance with Japan and relationship with the United States.
• Chinese travelers now prioritize safety, visa accessibility, and flight connectivity over traditional tourism attractions when selecting international destinations.