Anutin's Bhumjaithai Defies Polls With Decisive Thai Election Win as Voters Also Back Charter Change

A Conservative Victory Alongside a Vote for Change

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's Bhumjaithai Party has won approximately 192 seats in Thailand's 500-member House of Representatives, according to preliminary results with nearly 95 percent of polling stations reporting. The result more than doubles its 2023 total, overturns opinion polls favoring the progressive opposition and puts Anutin in a commanding position to negotiate the next government.

Voters delivered another consequential decision alongside the parliamentary result: approximately 65 percent supported drafting a replacement for the military-drafted 2017 constitution. Thailand therefore faces two tasks at once, forming a government led by conservatives and beginning a process of constitutional change.

Bhumjaithai captured nearly 40 percent of House seats, while the People's Party finished second with approximately 116 and the Shinawatra-backed Pheu Thai fell to around 74. Anutin still needs coalition partners to reach the 251 votes required to elect a prime minister, but his lead gives him considerable bargaining power.

Anutin, speaking to reporters at his party headquarters in Bangkok, presented the victory as a responsibility to the whole country.

Bhumjaithai's victory today is a victory for all Thais, whether you voted for Bhumjaithai Party or not. We have to do the utmost to serve the Thai people to our full ability.

The outcome reverses the pattern of 2023, when the reformist movement won the largest number of seats but was blocked from power by unelected senators. It also marks the first decisive conservative electoral triumph in Thailand in years, after a volatile period that brought three different prime ministers in as many years.

Anutin dissolved parliament less than 100 days into his minority government. He now stands poised to become the first Thai premier voted back to office in two decades, although coalition negotiations and certification of the preliminary results still lie ahead.

How Anutin Timed His Election Gamble

Anutin called the snap election in December after his coalition collapsed, betting that worries about national security and political instability would carry more weight than demands for sweeping reform. Economic anxiety and deadly clashes with Cambodia late last year shaped the campaign.

The route to the election involved several turns in Thailand's struggle for political power:

• In 2023, Move Forward, the predecessor of the People's Party, won 151 seats, while Pheu Thai won 141. Unelected senators prevented the reformist movement from taking power.
• In late 2024, 20 MPs expelled from Palang Pracharath helped strengthen the bloc that became part of Klatham's electoral base.
• Last September, after courts had removed two Pheu Thai prime ministers, the People's Party supported Anutin's selection as premier. Thaksin Shinawatra was also jailed that month.
• In December, Anutin called a snap election following the collapse of his coalition, having dissolved parliament less than 100 days into his minority administration.
• Sunday's election gave Bhumjaithai a substantial preliminary lead, while the accompanying referendum backed the drafting of a new constitution.

Bhumjaithai's gains extended beyond its traditional strongholds into areas long dominated by rival political families. The party recruited established local politicians and respected technocrats, combining constituency connections with a promise of competence on economic and security issues.

Mathis Lohatepanont, an independent political analyst, linked the unexpected scale of the result to both the campaign climate and the party's success in bringing conservative voters together.

The scale of its victory was unanticipated, perhaps demonstrating that the more nationalist political environment and its ability to consolidate the conservative electorate all worked in its favour.

Border Fighting Changed the Campaign

Months of fighting along the Thai-Cambodia border gave Anutin an opportunity to present himself as a leader defending national sovereignty. Civilians died in the conflict, and the Thai military took control of disputed territories.

Anutin campaigned on building a border wall and expanding volunteer military programs. His combative message connected with voters worried about external threats, while Bhumjaithai positioned itself as a home for conservatives who had previously supported parties aligned with the military.

Tita Sanglee, an associate fellow at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, described a change in what voters wanted from government.

People's priorities have shifted from reform to the need for stability.

Tita also pointed to the erratic foreign policy of the United States under President Trump as an influence on Thai voters seeking continuity. Domestic uncertainty and an unpredictable international environment formed part of the same political appeal for steadier leadership.

Anutin described Bhumjaithai's identity through its blue party color, which also appears on Thailand's national flag.

Nationalism is in the heart of everybody in the Bhumjaithai party. You can look at the color.

Bhumjaithai's campaign joined that patriotic message to practical political recruitment. Experienced local figures brought networks in provincial constituencies, while technocrats helped the party project an ability to manage the economy and national security.

Why the People's Party Lost Ground

The People's Party entered the election expecting to build on Move Forward's 151 seats in 2023. Instead, under 38-year-old businessman Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, it secured approximately 116, a decline of 35 seats for the reformist movement.

The party advocates reducing military influence and breaking up economic monopolies. It retained a powerful base in Bangkok, sweeping all 33 constituencies, but lost ground in provincial areas and urban centers including Chonburi, Phuket and Nonthaburi.

Natthaphong conceded defeat at the party's headquarters in Bangkok's Bang Kapi district while asking supporters to remain committed.

Don't lose hope. We've come so far.

Natthaphong also said the People's Party would stay out of a Bhumjaithai government and accept an opposition role.

If Bhumjaithai can form a government, then we have to be the opposition. We stand by our principle of respecting the party that finishes first and its right to form the government.

The party's decision to support Anutin as prime minister last September became a political weakness. It gave him the advantages of holding office while weakening the reformists' claim to a distinct ideological position after two Pheu Thai premiers had been removed by courts.

Rural organization was another weakness. Eighty percent of House seats are decided in constituency contests through first-past-the-post voting, where the candidate with the most votes wins. Strong local networks therefore matter greatly, and the People's Party's grassroots organization remained weaker than that of established rivals.

Napon Jatusripitak, a political scientist at the Bangkok-based Thailand Future think tank, said the party's attempt to moderate its position during the campaign had weakened its identity among some supporters.

From a purely ideological standpoint, there has been a brand dilution. Its core supporters, primarily the youth, who were inclined to vote for the party on the basis of ideology, are just not as energized this time around.

Pheu Thai Loses Its Traditional Strongholds

Pheu Thai suffered its worst electoral performance in recent memory, falling from 141 seats in 2023 to approximately 74. The loss of 67 seats leaves it with little more than half its previous total.

The party, backed by the billionaire Shinawatra family that has dominated Thai politics for two decades, fielded Thaksin Shinawatra's nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat as its candidate for prime minister. Traditional strongholds in the north and northeast instead shifted toward Bhumjaithai and other rivals.

Pheu Thai carried the damage from the previous government's handling of the Cambodia conflict and from Thaksin's imprisonment last September. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin's daughter and the party's leader, had been removed as prime minister over ethics violations connected to the border crisis. Her removal helped set off the events that brought Anutin to power.

Julapun Amornvivat, Pheu Thai's current leader, accepted the result at a press conference.

We have to respect the voice of the people.

Yodchanan struck a more optimistic tone, saying he was encouraged by the support the party received. The result nevertheless leaves the Shinawatra political machine facing a potential end to an era in which six populist prime ministers from the family or its allies were removed through coups and court rulings.

Bhumjaithai drew local power brokers and political clans away from Pheu Thai, turning territory long associated with its red political identity toward Bhumjaithai's blue.

Klatham, led by Thamanat Prompow and aligned with conservative interests, also benefited from Pheu Thai's decline. It won approximately 56 seats across the south and north. Its growth partly reflected the absorption of 20 former Palang Pracharath MPs expelled in late 2024, which gave it a substantial bloc before the election.

Voters Back Replacing the Constitution

Approximately 65 percent of voters supported drafting a new constitution in the referendum held alongside the election, according to preliminary tallies. The margin was close to two to one, delivering a demand for constitutional change even as conservatives won the parliamentary contest.

The 2017 constitution was written under military rule following the 2014 coup. Critics argue that it places too much power in institutions that voters do not directly choose, including the unelected senate and the Constitutional Court. The court has dissolved political parties and banned politicians from office.

Thailand has had 20 constitutions since absolute monarchy ended in 1932, with most changes following military coups. The latest referendum begins a process that would require two further referendums before a replacement charter could be adopted.

Anutin campaigned on protecting traditional institutions, leaving his incoming administration to manage a rewriting process endorsed by voters. Progressive proposals concerning the senate and royal prerogatives are likely to become central points of disagreement between the government and opposition.

Natthaphong, the People's Party leader, called on the incoming House to respect the referendum result.

I urge all prospective 500 members of parliament to honor this decision by the people.

Napon, the Thailand Future political scientist, had said before the vote that the parliamentary winner would have considerable influence over how constitutional change developed.

I believe that the party that wins in the next election will have an outsized influence on the direction of constitutional reform, whether we move away from the junta-drafted constitution or not.

The election and referendum give the next parliament two responsibilities: assembling a governing majority and carrying out the public decision to begin replacing the charter. The party leading the government will have a central role in setting the direction of that process.

The Numbers Behind Coalition Talks

Bhumjaithai's approximately 192 seats leave it 59 short of the 251 votes needed to elect a prime minister in the 500-member House. Its commanding lead nevertheless puts Anutin in a stronger negotiating position than his rivals.

Smaller parties collectively won approximately 117 seats, including Klatham's 56. Those parties offer a substantial pool of potential partners. Pheu Thai also remains a possible ally, despite Anutin's maneuvers against it last year and the ideological differences that such an agreement would need to reconcile.

The People's Party has explicitly ruled out joining a Bhumjaithai government. With roughly 116 seats, it is instead preparing to become a vigorous opposition.

Chaichanok Chidchob, Bhumjaithai's secretary general, expressed openness to working with different parties but attached conditions when discussing the People's Party.

I like a lot of their ideas, but of course, we'll have conditions. For me, I want them to be clear about their standpoint about the royal family. All this anti-monarchy stuff, it has to stop.

The unelected senate no longer participates in selecting the prime minister, unlike in 2023. The choice now rests with the House, removing an obstacle that previously prevented the largest elected party from forming a government.

The Election Commission has 60 days to certify the results. Parliament must then convene within 15 days, with the election of a speaker and prime minister to follow. The final coalition has not yet been settled.

Napon said the combination of political groups behind Anutin could give the next administration enough authority to govern effectively.

For the first time in a long time, we will likely have a government that has sufficient effective power to govern. We are seeing what I would describe as a marriage of convenience between technocrats, conservative elites, and traditional politicians.

A Weak Economy Tests Campaign Promises

Thailand's economy expanded by just 1.5 percent last year, the weakest performance in the region. Once a growth engine of Southeast Asia, the country now faces stagnation, record household debt and tourism numbers below their peaks before the pandemic.

Household debt means money owed by families, including borrowing that must be repaid from future income. High debt, together with weak growth, formed part of the economic anxiety that influenced voters during the campaign.

Anutin promised consumer subsidy programs and lower electricity prices. He also pledged to break up economic monopolies controlled by conglomerates linked to powerful families, setting out an agenda that combines immediate help with changes to how major businesses operate.

His reliance on elite backers may make reforms against their interests difficult to deliver. Economists have warned that stronger measures are needed to prevent Thailand from becoming the "sick man of Asia," a description of persistent economic weakness.

The political strength created by Bhumjaithai's victory will therefore face a practical test in household finances and economic performance. Voters who chose stability will also expect the government to address the financial pressures that helped shape the election.

Unfinished Business at the Border and Beyond

Thailand's dispute with Cambodia remains unresolved despite a ceasefire. Land crossings are still closed, and tensions continue over disputed territory. Anutin has authorized the military to act independently at the border and promised retaliatory strikes if Thailand is provoked.

The security issue that helped his campaign will now remain a responsibility of government. Maintaining the ceasefire and managing the territorial dispute sit alongside his promises of a border wall and expanded volunteer military programs.

Thailand also has to manage relations with the United States, its oldest ally, and China, with which it has deep economic ties. Anutin has ancestral connections to China's Guangdong province and has said Thailand refuses to take sides between the major powers.

Anutin's stated approach combines support for a rules-based international order with pragmatic relations across partnerships. It places Thailand between its longstanding American alliance and the economic importance of China.

Transnational cyberscam networks operating from neighboring countries present another challenge. The incoming government must also respond to the crisis in Myanmar, where the ruling junta recently held elections widely condemned as illegitimate.

Anutin has indicated that Thailand will engage with all sides in Myanmar while prioritizing humanitarian access and regional stability through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN. Those commitments add humanitarian and regional demands to an administration already facing coalition talks, constitutional change and a weak economy.

Key Points

• Bhumjaithai won approximately 192 of 500 House seats in preliminary results, more than double its 2023 total.
• Anutin needs about 60 additional votes to reach the 251 required to elect a prime minister.
• The People's Party won approximately 116 seats, retained all 33 Bangkok constituencies and plans to enter opposition.
• Pheu Thai fell from 141 seats in 2023 to around 74, while Klatham won approximately 56.
• Approximately 65 percent supported drafting a replacement for the 2017 constitution; adoption would require two further referendums.
• National security concerns following fighting with Cambodia helped Bhumjaithai consolidate conservative support.
• The Election Commission has 60 days to certify results, after which parliament must convene within 15 days.
• The next government faces weak growth, record household debt, an unresolved border dispute and difficult regional diplomacy.