A Demographic Surprise in East Asia
South Korea has recorded its largest annual increase in births in 15 years, marking the second consecutive year of growth in a nation long considered the face of global demographic decline. According to provisional figures released by the Ministry of Data and Statistics, 254,500 babies were born in 2025, representing a 6.8 percent increase from the previous year and the sharpest rise since 2010.
The country total fertility rate, which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime, climbed to 0.80 from 0.75 in 2024. This marks the first return to the 0.8 range since 2021, though South Korea remains the only member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development with a fertility rate below the critical threshold of 1.0.
Despite this rebound, the nation continues to face stark demographic headwinds. Deaths exceeded births by 108,900 in 2025, meaning the population maintained its trajectory of natural decline for the sixth consecutive year. The United Nations classifies South Korea as an ultra low fertility country and estimates the probability of its rate recovering to the population replacement level of 2.1 at just 0.1 percent over the coming decades.
The Echo Boomer Generation Enters Its Thirties
Demographers attribute much of the current surge to a unique demographic cohort known as echo boomers. This group comprises approximately 3.6 million individuals born between 1991 and 1995, representing a temporary expansion in births that occurred when the government effectively ended its family planning policy. These children of Korea postwar baby boomers are now entering their early thirties, which represents the peak age for marriage and childbearing in contemporary Korean society.
The statistical impact of this bulge is significant. The population of women in their early thirties reached approximately 1.7 million in 2025, a 9 percent increase from 2020. Data from Statistics Korea shows that women aged 30 to 34 increased from 1.51 million in 2020 to 1.65 million by mid 2025. This demographic shift has created a temporary window of increased fertility potential.
Park Hyun-jung, director of the population trends division at the Ministry of Data and Statistics, addressed the factors behind the increase.
The increase reflected the demographic effect, alongside sustained growth in marriages as Covid-era delays unwound and improving attitudes toward having children.
However, she cautioned that this tailwind carries an expiration date. Once the smaller cohorts born after 1996 begin moving into their thirties around 2027, the demographic advantage will likely dissipate.
Unwinding the Pandemic Marriage Backlog
A significant driver of the birthrate recovery stems from the resolution of marriage delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Marriage registrations have climbed steadily since April 2024, with approximately 240,000 couples tying the knot in 2025, representing an 8.1 percent increase from the previous year. This marked the third consecutive annual increase in marriages, following a 14.8 percent jump in 2024.
The connection between marriage and childbirth remains particularly strong in South Korea, where single parenthood carries significant social stigma and fewer than 2 percent of births occur outside marriage. Consequently, the 21 consecutive months of marriage growth from April 2024 through December 2025 has created a predictable pipeline of future births.
Births within two years of marriage increased by 10.2 percent in 2025, continuing a recovery that began in 2024 after more than a decade of decline. This suggests that couples who married later in life are compressing their family formation timeline, having children more quickly after marriage than previous cohorts. Data from September 2025 showed marriages rising 20.1 percent compared to the same month in 2024, the highest September figure since 2015.
Government Incentives and Corporate Benefits
South Korea has invested hundreds of billions of dollars over two decades in pronatal policies designed to reverse the demographic slide. These measures include generous cash handouts, housing subsidies for newlyweds, extended parental leave allowances, and comprehensive childcare support. Some corporations now offer benefits reaching 100 million won (approximately £51,500 or $66,000) per birth.
The Lee Jae Myung administration has announced plans for a five-year policy roadmap to address demographic changes, including expanded support for childbirth and measures to attract skilled foreign workers. President Lee has proposed providing all newlywed couples with 100 million won loans featuring debt forgiveness based on the number of children born, expanding child allowances to age 18, and implementing family friendly tax reforms modelled on France family quotient system.
However, Park Hyun-jung acknowledged that officials cannot clearly analyze the correlation between specific policies and the birthrate increase. Research from the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs suggests that while incentives help, structural barriers persist. A survey of women who gave birth in 2024 found that the desire to bear children and spousal willingness ranked as the most important factors in their decision, followed by age considerations.
Changing Attitudes and the Zero or Two Mentality
Beyond demographics, researchers have identified a subtle but significant shift in reproductive attitudes among Korean couples. A study by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs found that the 2024 rebound was driven primarily by behavioral changes rather than simply having more women of childbearing age. Of the 10,924 additional births among women in their thirties, only 3.2 percent resulted from population increases, while 96.8 percent came from higher birth rates within that group.
This shift includes what experts term the zero or two mentality, where couples increasingly choose either to remain childless or to have two children immediately, skipping the intermediate step of having just one child. Second births accounted for a larger share of the overall increase than first births in 2024, a pattern researchers described as unprecedented in Korean demographic history. The number of second-child births fell from about 166,000 in 2015 to 74,000 in 2023, before rising to 76,000 in 2024.
Interviews with new mothers reveal changing workplace dynamics. Lee Soo Min, expecting her second child after six years of marriage, noted that parental leave policies have improved substantially. She explained that her husband has already used one year of leave, and the availability of up to six years total leave has made the burden of parenting feel lighter. Another mother, surnamed Kim, cited priority admission for her first child at daycare centers once she became pregnant with her second, alongside cash vouchers worth 2 million won ($1,380), as factors that reduced the perceived burden of expanding her family.
Government survey data supports this attitudinal shift. The share of respondents intending to have children after marriage rose 3.1 percent between 2022 and 2024. A survey by the Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy found that 62.6 percent of unmarried men and women view marriage positively, up 6.7 percentage points from March 2024.
Persistent Structural Barriers
Despite the statistical bright spots, experts caution that fundamental obstacles to family formation remain deeply embedded in Korean society. Persistently high housing costs in major metropolitan areas, particularly Seoul, continue to delay marriage and childbirth. The average age of mothers at childbirth reached 33.8 years in 2025, the highest among OECD nations, where the average stands at 30.9 years.
The country notorious private education spending and hyper competitive academic environment create additional financial pressure on families. Workplace stigma against parents, particularly mothers, and stagnant youth employment rates continue to deter family formation. The infrastructure supporting childbirth has deteriorated after years of ultra low births, with pediatric clinics closing faster than they open and many municipalities lacking adequate delivery facilities.
This infrastructure crisis has created unusual scenes in Seoul. On frigid January mornings, crowds gather outside popular obstetrics and gynecology clinics before opening hours, with locals referring to these as open run OB GYNs, borrowing a term used for stores that see customers line up before doors open. Yet these visible signs of demand mask a deeper supply problem. Paediatric clinics are closing nationwide, and many regions now lack sufficient delivery facilities to serve even the current modest birth levels.
Professor Cho Young Tae of Seoul National University Graduate School of Public Health noted that marriage no longer leads to childbirth as directly as it once did. He emphasized the importance of ensuring that social and policy environments support people who want to raise children, particularly as the echo boomer generation moves through its prime childbearing years.
The Long Term Demographic Outlook
Demographers warn that the current rebound represents a temporary reprieve rather than a fundamental reversal. The nation faces severe economic implications from its demographic trajectory. The public pension fund, currently the world third largest with approximately $1 trillion in assets, is projected to run out by 2071. Credit ratings agencies have warned of growing strains on public finances from welfare expenditure. The central bank estimates that potential economic growth, currently around 2 percent annually, could drop to 0.6 percent by 2045-2049.
President Lee has proposed regional cooperation on demographic challenges, including a potential Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation population policy forum and collaboration with China and Japan on aging population issues. During visits to China and Japan in January, Lee agreed with President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to seek collaboration on aging populations.
With the population expected to shrink from 51.8 million to 36.2 million by 2072, the scale of the challenge remains daunting. While the echo boomer effect provides a brief demographic respite, experts agree that without fundamental structural changes to housing affordability, education competition, and workplace culture, the birthrate will likely resume its decline once this cohort ages past peak fertility.
Key Points
- South Korea recorded 254,500 births in 2025, a 6.8 percent increase and the largest annual rise in 15 years
- The total fertility rate rose to 0.80, still the lowest among OECD nations and far below the 2.1 replacement threshold
- The rebound is driven by echo boomers, the 3.6 million cohort born between 1991 and 1995 now reaching peak childbearing age
- Marriages increased 8.1 percent in 2025 as COVID-era delays resolved, driving births within two years of marriage up 10.2 percent
- Researchers found 96.8 percent of the birth increase came from higher birth rates rather than simply more women of childbearing age
- A zero or two mentality is emerging, with couples choosing either no children or two children, skipping single-child families
- Demographers warn the echo boomer effect will fade around 2027 when smaller post-1996 cohorts enter their thirties
- Despite the birthrate increase, deaths exceeded births by 108,900 and the population continues to shrink naturally
