A Show of Force Unfolds in the Taiwan Strait
The waters surrounding Taiwan became a zone of high tension this week as the Chinese military launched its most extensive war games in decades. Codenamed “Justice Mission 2025”, the exercises involved the deployment of air, navy, and rocket forces by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to encircle the self-governing island. The Eastern Theatre Command announced that troops, warships, fighter jets, and artillery units were conducting joint live-fire drills designed to simulate a comprehensive blockade and strikes on key maritime and land targets. According to Taiwan’s defense ministry, the PLA fired 27 missiles from the Chinese coastline into waters near the island on Tuesday morning, with some landing in Taiwan’s 24-nautical mile contiguous zone, a significant escalation compared to previous drills.
The scale of the operation was unprecedented in recent years, with seven designated exercise zones established by China’s Maritime Safety Administration. Taiwan’s military tracked at least 70 Chinese war planes, 11 navy ships, and 14 militarized coast guard vessels operating near the island since early Tuesday. The drills included simulations to seal off Taiwan’s vital deep-water ports, specifically Keelung in the north and Kaohsiung in the south, effectively demonstrating Beijing’s ability to cut off the island from the outside world. The live-fire exercises disrupted civilian life, forcing the cancellation of over 80 domestic flights and affecting more than 100,000 passengers on international routes as airlines were forced to navigate around temporary danger zones in the airspace.
Taiwan’s government responded by placing its armed forces on high alert. President Lai Ching-te strongly condemned the actions, stating that China was failing to act as a responsible world power. He emphasized that Taiwan would defend its sovereignty but pledged to act responsibly without escalating conflict unilaterally. The island’s defense ministry described the drills as a disregard for international norms and accused Beijing of engaging in cognitive warfare to deplete Taiwan’s combat capabilities and create division within Taiwanese society.
Trump Downplays the Escalation
As missiles landed near Taiwan’s shores and military aircraft buzzed the island’s airspace, United States President Donald Trump offered a surprisingly relaxed assessment of the situation. Speaking to reporters in Florida, Trump said he was “not worried” by the live-fire drills and that he maintains a “great relationship” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The President noted that while he had seen reports of the exercises, Xi had not informed him of them in advance. Trump suggested he did not believe an actual invasion was imminent.
“I have a great relationship with President Xi, and he hasn’t told me anything about it. I certainly have seen it … I don’t believe he is going to be doing it. Nothing worries me. Nothing. They’ve been doing naval exercises for 20 years in that area.”
This stance highlights a complex dynamic in US foreign policy. While the US maintains its “One China” policy, which acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, Washington is also legally bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to provide the island with the means to defend itself. The Trump administration recently approved a record $11 billion weapons sale to Taiwan, a move that drew sharp protests from Beijing. This package included advanced systems such as High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which Taiwan showcased in a video during the drills as a display of its own deterrent capabilities.
Analysts have noted that Trump’s rhetoric often oscillates on the issue of Taiwan. During his first term, he deepened ties with Taipei, including a landmark phone call with then-President Tsai Ing-wen and significant arms sales. However, his public comments sometimes suggest a transactional view of the relationship. His current refusal to be alarmed by the drills contrasts with the view of many security experts in Washington and the region, who view these exercises as rehearsals for a potential military conflict that could draw the US into a war with China.
Warnings to ‘Separatist’ Forces and External Interference
Beijing framed the “Justice Mission 2025” drills as a necessary response to what it terms provocations by “separatist forces” in Taiwan and interference from external powers. China’s foreign ministry explicitly cited the recent US arms sales and a statement by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as catalysts for the military display. Takaichi had recently suggested that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a military response from Japan, a comment that infuriated Beijing. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, stated that the drills were a forceful counter to these provocations.
“In response to the continuous provocations by pro-independence forces in Taiwan and the large-scale US arms sales to Taiwan, we must of course resolutely oppose and forcefully counter them.”
The rhetoric from Chinese state media was equally aggressive. An editorial in the official state outlet Xinhua described the drills as a “clear reminder for the DPP that the trend of national reunification is unstoppable.” It accused the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan of relying on US support to pursue independence, which it argued would only push the region toward the brink of conflict. The Eastern Theatre Command released propaganda posters featuring the “Shield of Justice” and warned that any foreign interlopers or separatists would be eliminated. The military even released a video depicting futuristic technologies such as automated humanoid robots, microdrones, and weaponised robotic dogs attacking the island, showcasing new capabilities not previously displayed.
This week’s drills mark the sixth major round of war games China has conducted around Taiwan since 2022. The previous significant exercise took place in response to a visit by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. While such exercises often require extensive planning, the PLA frequently links them to specific political events to justify their timing. The current drills follow a pattern of Beijing using military pressure to signal its displeasure with Taiwan’s diplomatic engagements and US support.
The Strategic Context of Blockade Simulations
Military analysts point out that the specific focus of these drills on blockading ports and encircling the island serves a distinct strategic purpose. A blockade would be a devastating tactic against Taiwan, an island economy that relies heavily on maritime trade for its survival. By simulating the closure of key ports like Kaohsiung, China is demonstrating its ability to strangle Taiwan’s economy without necessarily launching a full-scale amphibious invasion. This falls under what security experts call “gray zone” tactics, actions that fall between peace and open war to coerce an opponent.
China’s military modernization has focused heavily on developing anti-access and area-denial capabilities, often referred to as A2/AD. These capabilities are designed to prevent foreign militaries, particularly the US, from operating in the region during a conflict. The inclusion of drills to repel “external foreign interference” and “neutralize” submarines and maritime targets highlights Beijing’s intent to signal to Washington and Tokyo that intervention would come at a high cost. William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Crisis Group, noted that the explicit language regarding deterrence outside the island chain sends a very strong signal to Taiwan’s unofficial allies.
The drills also come at a time of heightened tension between China and Japan. Relations have plunged to their iciest in years following Takaichi’s comments. China has lodged heated protests and even issued warnings to its citizens to avoid travel to Japan. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian warned that external forces attempting to use Taiwan to contain China would only embolden pro-independence arrogance.
Domestic Reaction and Resilience in Taiwan
Inside Taiwan, the reaction to the drills has been a mix of condemnation and stoicism. While the government has strongly criticized the actions as irrational provocations, the general public appears to be adapting to the reality of increased military pressure. Taiwan’s transport ministry worked quickly to manage flight disruptions, and the stock market remained unaffected, even closing up slightly during the drills. This resilience reflects a broader trend in Taiwanese public opinion, where a majority of residents identify as exclusively Taiwanese and support the maintenance of the status quo.
Taiwan’s defense ministry has been vocal about the threat these exercises pose, not just to the island but to regional stability. Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Intelligence Hsieh Jih-sheng told reporters that the drills constitute military pressure and pose complex challenges for the international community. In response, Taiwan’s military has been conducting its own “rapid response exercises,” designed to move troops swiftly in case the Chinese drills turn into a surprise attack. The deployment of US-made HIMARS rocket systems in defense displays serves as a reminder of the island’s asymmetric warfare strategy, which focuses on making any invasion too costly to attempt.
President Lai has emphasized that peace relies on “real strength” and that his administration is committed to raising the difficulty of any potential invasion. In a recent interview, he stated that if China aims to be ready for an invasion by 2027, Taiwan’s goal is to raise the bar high enough that Beijing can never meet the standard. This commitment to strengthening indigenous defense capabilities has been a cornerstone of his administration’s policy.
Expert Analysis and the Path Forward
Experts disagree on the immediate implications of the current escalation. Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program, noted that while the drills are a form of punishment for the US arms sale, they also serve as essential practice for the PLA. She pointed out that Chinese President Xi Jinping has tasked the military with being prepared to take Taiwan by 2027. However, Glaser also observed that the shorter duration of these live-fire exercises compared to those in 2022 suggests they are performative, intended to demonstrate anger without derailing the improving US-China relationship.
Tom Shattuck, a senior program manager at Perry World House, offered a different perspective. He believes the region has entered a new phase where China will conduct regular exercises around Taiwan to simulate military contingencies. Shattuck predicted that China will hold at least three large exercises around Taiwan in 2026 and gradually increase the frequency to keep pressure on Taipei. This strategy of constant harassment and intimidation is designed to wear down Taiwan’s defenses and morale, a concept central to Beijing’s gray zone approach.
Ultimately, the situation remains volatile. The drills highlight the fragile balance of power in the Taiwan Strait. While Trump’s comments suggest a lack of immediate alarm in Washington, the commitment to arms sales continues. Beijing remains determined to assert its claims of sovereignty. As the PLA continues to modernize and conduct increasingly complex exercises, the risk of miscalculation or accidental conflict remains a primary concern for policymakers and security analysts around the world.
The Essentials
- China launched “Justice Mission 2025”, a two-day live-fire military drill encircling Taiwan involving missiles, warships, and aircraft.
- US President Donald Trump stated he was “not worried” by the drills, citing his “great relationship” with President Xi Jinping.
- The exercises were a response to a record $11 billion US arms sale to Taiwan and comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about potential military involvement.
- Taiwan’s government condemned the drills as “irrational provocations” and placed its military on high alert.
- Over 100,000 passengers were affected by flight cancellations and diversions due to the drill zones.
- Analysts view the drills as practice for a blockade and a method to normalize military pressure around the island.
