Global Expansion of Japanese Cuisine Stumbles
For the first time since Japan began tracking the global spread of its cuisine, the number of Japanese restaurants operating overseas has declined, according to a government survey released in late November. This historic shift marks a significant moment in the culinary globalization that has seen Japanese food establishments expand from 55,000 locations in 2013 to a peak of 187,000 just two years ago. The new data shows approximately 181,000 Japanese restaurants operating abroad in 2025, representing a notable reversal in what had been a consistent upward trajectory for more than a decade.
The decline, while modest at just over 3% compared to 2023 figures, reflects deeper economic and geopolitical trends affecting international business and cultural exchange. Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has compiled this biennial survey since 2013, using it as a key indicator of Japanese food products’ international uptake. The data serves as a crucial reference point for Japanese government efforts to expand food exports globally, with the number of overseas establishments serving as both a marker of cultural influence and a distribution channel for Japanese ingredients.
China’s Economic Downturn Drives the Decline
The decrease in Japanese restaurants overseas is primarily concentrated in China, which still holds the distinction of having the largest number of such establishments outside Japan. The survey revealed that China saw a dramatic reduction of approximately 15,260 Japanese restaurants over the two-year period, bringing the total down to 63,500 locations. This represents a nearly 20% decline in just 24 months, signaling how deeply China’s economic challenges are affecting foreign businesses operating in the country.
China’s recent economic struggles have been well documented, with the country facing a combination of weak domestic demand, a prolonged property industry crisis, and high levels of local government debt. These challenges have created a difficult operating environment for restaurants catering to international tastes, as Chinese consumers increasingly tighten their spending and prioritize domestic alternatives. The property crisis, in particular, has had ripple effects throughout the economy, reducing household wealth and dampening consumer confidence.
The economic impact on Japanese restaurants in China coincides with broader trade tensions between the two nations. Earlier this year, China implemented a blanket suspension of Japanese seafood imports following the release of treated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. This move, which began in August 2023, contributed to a 14.6% decline in Japanese food exports to China that year, despite record overall food exports from Japan. The combination of economic headwinds and political tensions has created a perfect storm for Japanese restaurants operating in China’s major cities.
Chinese Consumer Behavior Shifts
Economic data from China suggests that the decline in Japanese restaurants reflects broader changes in Chinese consumer behavior. According to recent economic indicators, retail sales in China rose by just 1.3% in November compared to the previous year—the slowest increase since December 2022. Sales of automobiles fell by 8.3%, while appliance and audio-visual equipment purchases dropped by 19.4%. These figures paint a picture of a consumer base that is increasingly cautious about discretionary spending, with dining out at foreign restaurants often being among the first luxuries to be cut.
The challenges facing Japanese restaurants in China are not unique to the culinary sector. Fixed asset investment in China fell by 2.6% in the first 11 months of 2025, with property investment declining by 15.9% from the previous year. These investment figures represent the weakest performance since June 2020, indicating that businesses across sectors are pulling back on expansion plans. For Japanese restaurant operators, who had been aggressively expanding in China during the previous decade, this economic environment has forced difficult decisions about location closures and operational downsizing.
Growth in Unexpected Markets
While China’s Japanese restaurant sector contracted significantly, other regions showed remarkable growth that helped offset the Asian decline. Central and South America emerged as a surprising growth market, with Japanese restaurant numbers increasing by approximately 20%—or about 2,400 new establishments. Ministry officials attribute this expansion to growing interest in Japanese anime and other pop culture phenomena, which has created new appetite for Japanese cuisine among younger demographics across Latin American countries.
The Middle East also demonstrated strong growth in Japanese dining establishments, with numbers rising by about 20% or approximately 300 locations. According to the ministry’s analysis, this expansion has been driven by increasing health consciousness among Middle Eastern consumers, with Japanese cuisine perceived as a healthier alternative to other international dining options. The region’s relatively affluent consumer base has shown growing appreciation for Japanese cuisine’s emphasis on fresh ingredients, lean proteins, and vegetables.
“The growing popularity of Japanese culture and cuisine in European countries like Germany, France, and Italy has resulted in record sales, with exports to the EU and Britain combined increasing by 16.2%,” according to recent export data.
These geographic shifts in Japanese restaurant expansion highlight how cultural factors can significantly influence culinary globalization patterns. While economic conditions remain important, the appeal of Japanese pop culture and cuisine’s healthy image have proven powerful drivers of growth in regions where Japanese businesses had previously maintained limited presence.
Broader Implications for Japan’s Food Export Strategy
The Japanese government has set ambitious targets for food exports, aiming for ¥2 trillion by 2025 and ¥5 trillion by 2030. These goals have been challenged by China’s recent import restrictions and economic slowdown, particularly given that China had been Japan’s largest food export destination. In 2023, despite overall record food exports reaching ¥1.45 trillion, exports to China declined by 14.6% to ¥237.6 billion.
The decline in Japanese restaurants in China could have longer-term implications for Japanese food product exports, as these establishments often serve as important points of entry and distribution for Japanese ingredients. The survey data is particularly relevant because the number of overseas restaurants serves as a key reference for the uptake of Japanese food products in foreign markets. Fewer Japanese restaurants in China could mean reduced demand for authentic Japanese ingredients, from premium soy sauces and miso pastes to specialty seafood products.
However, Japan’s food export strategy is showing resilience through diversification. In 2024, Japanese sake exports increased by 6.4% to ¥43.5 billion, with the United States seeing a substantial 25.9% jump to ¥11.4 billion—nearly matching China’s ¥11.7 billion in exports. This growth in other markets demonstrates how Japanese food producers are successfully adapting to changing global conditions by finding new consumers in different regions.
Diplomatic Tensions Compound Economic Challenges
The decline in Japanese restaurants in China cannot be viewed solely through an economic lens. Diplomatic tensions between Tokyo and Beijing have reached concerning levels in recent months, with experts pointing to political factors as contributing to the challenging business environment. These tensions have particularly affected Japan’s tourism sector, which relies heavily on Chinese visitors who are typically the country’s biggest spenders.
Recent data shows dramatic impacts on Japan’s tourism industry, with over 500,000 flight bookings from China to Japan canceled and Chinese travel agencies halting group tours. The disruptions have been attributed to political and safety concerns, including controversial comments by Japanese officials and growing fears among Chinese citizens. Japan’s tourism sector, which derived approximately ¥8.1 trillion from tourism revenue in recent years with Chinese visitors accounting for about one-fifth of this total, faces severe economic losses if these tensions persist.
Osaka, Japan’s second-largest economic hub, has been particularly hard hit by the tourism decline. Denryu Lin, who operates about 80 vacation rentals in central Osaka, described watching his business evaporate since late November as tensions between Tokyo and Beijing escalated. “Over 600 bookings—more than 1,000 Chinese guests—have been canceled through year-end,” Lin reported, adding that “everyone I know in real estate and the travel industry is struggling.” This sense of sector-wide stress reflects how interconnected various Japanese industries have become with Chinese tourism.
The diplomatic rift appears to have been worsened by comments from Japanese politicians and escalating safety concerns in Japan, leading to increased cancellations and halted travel packages. Kansai International Airport has logged the steepest flight cuts nationwide, while hotels, retailers and restaurants face waves of cancellations. China has ordered the country’s airlines to reduce flights to Japan through March 2025, further constraining travel between the two nations.
Regional Shifts in Japan’s Culinary Globalization
Despite the setbacks in China, Japan’s culinary globalization story continues to evolve in positive ways across other regions. The United States remains the second-largest market for Japanese restaurants with approximately 26,360 establishments, showing relative stability even as China’s numbers declined. South Korea maintains the third position with 19,800 Japanese restaurants, followed by Mexico with 7,430 locations.
The growth in Central and South America is particularly noteworthy because it represents a cultural crossover phenomenon. Japanese anime and manga have gained significant popularity throughout Latin America, creating what some analysts call a “soft power” effect that drives interest in other aspects of Japanese culture, including cuisine. This cultural affinity has helped Japanese restaurants establish themselves in markets where they might otherwise face stronger competition from other Asian cuisines or local dining traditions.
European markets have also shown promise for Japanese food exports, with countries like Germany, France, and Italy experiencing record sales of Japanese products. The combined exports to the European Union and Britain increased by 16.2% to ¥2.7 billion in 2024, indicating that European consumers are developing more sophisticated palates for Japanese cuisine and ingredients. This diversification of markets helps reduce Japan’s vulnerability to economic or political challenges in any single country.
Japan’s Strategic Response to Changing Markets
Facing the twin challenges of China’s economic slowdown and diplomatic tensions, Japanese businesses and government officials are actively developing strategies to maintain culinary globalization momentum. At Stargate Hotel Kansai Airport in Osaka, director of rooms Jiro Kobayashi noted that Chinese customers have dropped 20 percentage points to 30% from pre-pandemic levels. The hotel is now targeting South-East Asia, Taiwan and South Korea to fill this demand gap.
This market diversification strategy is visible across Japan’s tourism and food export sectors. Retailers are adjusting their expectations and marketing approaches, with some chains seeing duty-free sales decline but maintaining overall revenue through domestic demand. Kyoto’s Yojiya cosmetics chain reported a 10% drop in sales to Chinese visitors in late November but offset these losses with increased domestic spending.
The Japanese government has been pushing regions to broaden their visitor mix since post-pandemic reopening, with uneven but visible progress. In Gifu, Chinese guests now make up 10% of stays, down from 41% in 2019. In Shizuoka, that number has fallen to 45% from 71%. While these declines represent lost revenue, they also indicate successful diversification that makes these regions less vulnerable to future disruptions in China-Japan relations.
“The abrupt decline in Chinese tourism may ultimately help accelerate Japan’s pivot toward a more diverse visitor base,” said Akiko Kohsaka, a senior researcher at Japan Research Institute. “It may prompt further shift in how regions position themselves in the market. It’s important to lay the groundwork for the future.”
The Future of Japanese Cuisine Abroad
Despite the current challenges, experts suggest that the long-term outlook for Japanese cuisine overseas remains positive, albeit with a different geographic distribution than previously anticipated. The nearly 20% decline in Chinese Japanese restaurants represents a significant correction, but the overall number of establishments worldwide remains more than three times higher than the 55,000 recorded in 2013.
Japan’s food export strategy is increasingly focusing on markets with stronger growth potential and more stable diplomatic relationships. The United States has emerged as a particularly promising market, with sake exports jumping 25.9% in 2024 and overall food exports growing by 6.4% to reach ¥206.2 billion in 2023. This growth has been buoyed by strong sales of buri (yellowtail) and green tea, indicating that American consumers are developing more sophisticated tastes for Japanese culinary products.
The recent inscription of traditional sake-making knowledge and skills on the UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage list in December 2024 is expected to further boost interest in Japanese culture and cuisine globally. The Japan Sake and Shōchū Makers Association is actively promoting sake to international visitors and engaging with sommeliers to expand its fanbase, suggesting that cultural prestige will continue to be an important driver of culinary globalization.
Chinese market challenges are expected to persist in the near term. China Trading Desk CEO Subramania Bhatt predicts that “Japan can claw back maybe half to two-thirds of the lost Chinese volume over the following 12 to 18 months, but the era of treating China as an endlessly reliable growth engine for Japan tourism and for places like Osaka in particular is over for now.” This assessment reflects a broader recognition that Japan must develop more diversified strategies for culinary and tourism expansion.
What to Know
- The number of Japanese restaurants overseas declined for the first time in 2025, falling from 187,000 to approximately 181,000 establishments.
- China saw the largest decline, losing approximately 15,260 Japanese restaurants (nearly 20% decrease) to reach 63,500 locations.
- Growth in Central and South America (up 20% or 2,400 restaurants) and the Middle East (up 20% or 300 locations) helped offset declines in Asia.
- The United States remains the second-largest market for Japanese restaurants with 26,360 establishments, followed by South Korea with 19,800 and Mexico with 7,430.
- China’s economic challenges, including weak domestic demand and a property crisis, have contributed to the decline in Japanese restaurants.
- Diplomatic tensions between Japan and China have exacerbated economic challenges, with over 500,000 flight bookings canceled and Chinese travel agencies halting group tours.
- Despite the decline, the total number of Japanese restaurants overseas remains more than three times higher than the 55,000 recorded in 2013.
- Japanese food exports reached a record ¥1.45 trillion in 2023 despite a 14.6% decline in exports to China.
- The Japanese government has set targets of ¥2 trillion in food exports by 2025 and ¥5 trillion by 2030.
- Japan is increasingly focusing on diversifying its export markets and tourism sources to reduce reliance on China.
