China’s Clean-Tech Boom: A Global Climate Game-Changer
In 2024, China’s exports of solar panels, batteries, wind turbines, and electric vehicles (EVs) are set to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions outside its borders by an estimated 1%—about 220 million tonnes. That’s nearly four times Singapore’s annual emissions, and almost equal to the annual emissions of Australia. Over the lifetimes of these products, the avoided emissions could reach a staggering 4 billion tonnes. These numbers, drawn from recent analyses by Carbon Brief and other research organizations, highlight a profound shift: China’s clean-tech manufacturing juggernaut is not just transforming its own energy system, but is also driving down global emissions and accelerating the world’s transition away from fossil fuels.
This positive impact comes amid a backdrop of trade tensions, tariffs, and geopolitical competition. Yet, the scale and speed of China’s clean-energy exports are reshaping global markets, supply chains, and climate trajectories in ways that few other countries can match.
How Do China’s Clean-Tech Exports Reduce Emissions?
China’s dominance in clean-energy manufacturing is the result of decades of industrial policy, investment, and innovation. Today, China holds at least 60% of the world’s manufacturing capacity for mass-produced clean technologies—such as solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, wind turbines, and batteries—and produces about three-quarters of the world’s EV batteries. In 2023 alone, China invested more in clean energy than the next ten countries combined, and clean-tech industries now contribute over 10% of its GDP.
When Chinese-made solar panels, batteries, EVs, and wind turbines are exported and deployed abroad, they displace fossil-fuel-based energy and transportation, leading to immediate and substantial reductions in CO2 emissions. The largest impact comes from direct equipment exports, especially solar panels, followed by batteries, EVs, and wind turbines. For example, the solar panels exported from China in 2024 alone are expected to cut annual CO2 emissions in recipient countries by 1%, or 220 million tonnes. When factoring in Chinese-owned overseas manufacturing plants and clean-power projects, the avoided emissions rise to 350 million tonnes per year—about 1.5% of global emissions outside China.
These benefits are not just theoretical. The emissions generated during the manufacturing of these products in China—estimated at 110 million tonnes of CO2 in 2024—are typically offset in less than a year of operation. Over their lifetimes, the products will avoid nearly 40 times the emissions generated during their production.
Where Are the Biggest Impacts Felt?
China’s clean-tech exports reach 191 of the 192 other United Nations member states, with particularly notable impacts in regions with high carbon intensity and growing energy demand. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are set to see the largest relative emission reductions, with annual emissions projected to fall by 3% and 4.5% respectively due to Chinese clean-tech imports and investments. In these regions, affordable solar panels and wind turbines from China are helping to address electricity shortages and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
South Asia, including countries like Pakistan, is another key market, where solar affordability and energy needs are driving rapid adoption. In Southeast Asia, nations such as Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam are importing Chinese solar and battery technologies to power their own clean-energy transitions. OECD Europe is the largest destination by value, but the CO2 savings are smaller due to already cleaner power grids.
China’s Role in the Global Clean-Tech Supply Chain
China’s rise as the world’s clean-tech factory is rooted in its ability to produce at scale and at lower costs than competitors. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China is the most cost-effective location for manufacturing key clean energy technologies, with production costs significantly lower than in the US, EU, or India. This cost advantage, combined with long-term government support, has allowed China to dominate global supply chains for solar panels, batteries, and EVs.
However, this dominance also creates vulnerabilities. The production of critical minerals—such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements—is highly concentrated, with China controlling much of the processing and refining. This concentration raises concerns about supply chain security, especially as geopolitical tensions rise and countries seek to diversify their sources of clean-tech components.
Economic and Trade Implications
China exported $177 billion worth of clean-energy products in 2024, about 5% of its total exports. Yet, the downstream value of these products—such as project development, installation, and services—abroad is estimated at $720 billion annually. While China captures most of the manufacturing value, much of the economic benefit from clean energy lies in the deployment and operation of projects in importing countries.
As global demand for clean-tech grows, China’s economic and diplomatic engagement in clean energy is increasing. The country is also investing in overseas manufacturing and clean-power projects, further expanding its global footprint. However, most financing for clean-energy development outside China is provided by other countries, with about three-fourths of the value from clean-energy projects and products being captured elsewhere.
Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Challenges
The rapid expansion of China’s clean-tech exports has not been without controversy. The US and EU have imposed tariffs and launched investigations into alleged unfair subsidies and overcapacity in Chinese clean-tech industries. These measures are intended to protect domestic industries and reduce dependence on Chinese imports, but they also risk slowing the global clean-energy transition by raising costs and limiting access to affordable technologies.
According to the World Economic Forum and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a balance must be struck between economic security and climate goals. Complete decoupling from China is neither feasible nor desirable if the world is to meet its emissions targets. Instead, experts suggest that international cooperation, joint ventures, and transparent supply chains are needed to ensure a fair and resilient global clean-tech market.
The Impact of Trade Friction
Trade tensions can have ripple effects across the global energy transition. For example, if tariffs and export controls disrupt the flow of Chinese clean-tech products, countries may face higher costs and slower deployment of renewables and EVs. This could make it harder for them to meet their climate goals and delay the global shift away from fossil fuels. At the same time, China’s own clean-energy industries could suffer from reduced export markets, potentially leading to overcapacity, lower profits, and slower innovation.
Some countries, like Brazil and Costa Rica, have benefited from Chinese clean-tech exports by rapidly expanding their own renewable energy and electric mobility sectors. Others, such as the US and EU, are seeking to build up their own domestic industries while still relying on Chinese components and expertise. The challenge for policymakers is to balance the need for economic security with the urgency of climate action.
China’s Triple Transformation: Decarbonization, Digitalization, and Reglobalization
China’s clean-tech revolution is not just about manufacturing hardware. The country is undergoing a “triple transformation”—decarbonizing its economy, digitizing its energy systems, and reconfiguring its role in global cooperation. Investments in artificial intelligence, big data, and smart grids are making China’s energy system more efficient and responsive. The integration of digital technologies with clean energy is enabling smarter resource management and optimizing the use of renewables.
China’s government has driven this transformation through bold policies, massive investment, and a focus on innovation. R&D spending and patent filings in clean energy have surged, making China a global leader in clean-tech innovation. The synergy between government, academia, and industry has enabled rapid deployment of renewables, batteries, and EVs at a scale unmatched by any other country.
Challenges and Opportunities
Despite its progress, China faces significant challenges. Coal remains dominant in its energy mix, accounting for 56% of primary energy consumption, though its share is projected to decline as renewables expand. The country must balance the need for energy security with the imperative to decarbonize, especially in coal-dependent regions. Overcapacity in some clean-tech sectors, such as solar panels, has led to falling prices and financial stress for manufacturers.
Internationally, China’s clean-tech boom is reshaping trade dynamics and raising questions about technology dependencies, fair competition, and the distribution of economic benefits. Some countries worry about becoming too reliant on Chinese imports, while others see opportunities for cooperation and joint development. The future of the global clean-energy transition will depend on how these challenges are managed and whether countries can work together to accelerate the deployment of affordable, advanced technologies.
Broader Implications: The Global Shift from Fossil Fuels to Renewables
The rapid growth of China’s clean-tech exports is part of a broader global trend: the shift from fossil fuels to renewables. As the cost of solar, wind, and battery technologies continues to fall, renewables are making up the bulk of new electricity capacity additions worldwide. According to the United Nations and the Financial Times, fossil fuels are “running out of road” as clean energy becomes increasingly competitive and accessible.
China’s leadership in clean-tech manufacturing has played a crucial role in driving down costs and making renewables affordable for countries around the world. This, in turn, is helping to accelerate the global energy transition and reduce greenhouse gas emissions at a critical moment for the planet.
In Summary
- China’s exports of solar panels, batteries, wind turbines, and electric vehicles are set to reduce global CO2 emissions outside China by 1% in 2024—about 220 million tonnes.
- Over the lifetimes of these products, the avoided emissions could reach 4 billion tonnes, with the manufacturing emissions typically offset in less than a year of operation.
- The largest impacts are felt in regions with high carbon intensity and growing energy demand, such as sub-Saharan Africa, MENA, and South Asia.
- China dominates global clean-tech manufacturing, but most economic value from clean energy is captured downstream in project development and services.
- Trade tensions and tariffs threaten to slow the global clean-energy transition by raising costs and limiting access to affordable technologies.
- China’s “triple transformation”—decarbonization, digitalization, and reglobalization—is reshaping its economy and the global energy landscape.
- The global shift from fossil fuels to renewables is accelerating, with China’s clean-tech exports playing a pivotal role in making clean energy accessible and affordable worldwide.
