A difficult demographic milestone
In October, Taiwan recorded its 22nd straight month of population decline, reinforcing a trend that is reshaping the island’s society and economy. Ministry of the Interior data show 9,458 births and 15,908 deaths for the month. The gap between those figures, a natural population decrease of 6,450 people, was only partially offset by a small net migration gain of 272. Taiwan’s total population fell by 6,178 from September to 23,310,853 at the end of October.
Births were 22 percent lower than in the same month last year, even though they rose modestly from September. Deaths edged up from both the prior month and the previous October. The monthly figures translate into a crude birth rate of 4.78 per 1,000 people and a crude death rate of 8.03 per 1,000. The balance keeps pushing the population downward, a pattern that began in 2020 and has persisted with only brief pauses.
The age structure underscores the shift. People aged 65 and older now account for 19.9 percent of the population, just shy of the 20 percent threshold used by the United Nations to define a super aged society. Children 14 and under are 11.55 percent, while those 15 to 64 stand at 68.55 percent. Taipei City has the highest share of older residents at 24 percent. Hsinchu County has the lowest at 14.95 percent.
Family formation is also slowing. In October, 10,735 couples married and 4,511 divorced. The crude marriage rate was 5.42 per 1,000 people and the crude divorce rate was 2.28. Same sex couples accounted for 307 marriages and 77 divorces within the month’s totals.
What the latest numbers show
October’s headline figures reveal three forces moving in tandem, fewer births than a year ago, a stable but high level of deaths, and migration flows that are positive yet small. The natural decrease of 6,450 in October mirrors patterns seen across 2025. For context, Taiwan registered 134,856 births in 2024, the lowest annual total on record, and the direction in 2025 remains weak despite a temporary pickup from September.
Births at historic lows
Taiwan’s fertility rate is among the lowest in the world. Estimates place it around 0.85 to 0.9 children per woman in recent years, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. The monthly count of 9,458 births in October equals roughly one baby every 4.7 minutes. Seasonal and timing effects can move monthly data, but the broader trend is flat to lower even in years considered auspicious in the lunar calendar.
Deaths are steady at a higher baseline
Deaths totaled 15,908 in October, about one death every 2.8 minutes. Life expectancy is high by global standards and medical care is broadly accessible, yet Taiwan has a rapidly growing senior population. As the population ages, the number of deaths tends to remain elevated relative to births. That structural reality makes it harder for any single month of baby arrivals to change the national trend.
Why births keep falling in Taiwan
The reasons are familiar across advanced economies, yet Taiwan’s mix is acute. Later marriage, high housing costs in major cities, long work hours, and intense education spending weigh on family decisions. Many women report that career penalties and uneven household responsibilities make parenthood less feasible. Couples who want children often delay a first birth and then have only one child or none.
Costs and housing
Home prices in Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung, and Hsinchu outpace wage growth. Mortgage or rent burdens consume a large share of income for young adults at the stage when they might otherwise start families. Childcare spots can be scarce in popular districts, and private daycare and after school programs add significant monthly expenses. Financial support schemes exist, but out of pocket costs remain a deterrent.
Work, family and gender norms
Long hours culture, rigid schedules, and limited flexible work options make it difficult to combine a demanding job with caregiving. Even with legal protections, mothers face a higher risk of stalled earnings and slower promotions. Fathers take less leave than policy allows, which leaves more of the burden on mothers. Changing the workplace to support family life is a slow process, and social expectations evolve gradually.
Infertility treatment has become more common as couples start families at later ages. Public subsidies for assisted reproduction have expanded, and clinics report rising demand across East Asia. Cost, access, and success rates still vary, so many couples face a complex and time consuming path to parenthood.
Super aged threshold is near
Taiwan sits on the cusp of super aged status. The share of residents 65 and older reached 19.9 percent in October. The UN benchmark for a super aged society is 20 percent. Taiwan is likely to cross that line soon, given the steady pace of aging and the low number of births. The working age share, now 68.55 percent, will shrink over time as larger cohorts retire.
The shift changes daily life. More long term care, assistive services, and age friendly housing are needed in every county and city. The urban rural gap in elderly share is already visible, with Taipei at 24 percent and Hsinchu County below 15 percent. Planning for transportation, health care capacity, home care training, and elder friendly public spaces is now a core function of local government.
Demographers track the dependency ratio, the number of children and older adults relative to the working age population. Taiwan’s ratio is rising as the young cohort shrinks and the elderly cohort grows. Without a rebound in births or a sustained lift from immigration, the number of workers per retiree will keep falling, which complicates funding for pensions and health care.
Economic and social pressure grows
Long range projections by the National Development Council point to a much smaller society in the decades ahead. Forecasts indicate a population of about 15 million by 2070 if low fertility persists, and the share of residents aged 65 and older could approach one in two. That magnitude of change would reshape the labor market, raise pressure on pension and health insurance systems, and drive a sharp increase in demand for long term care. It would also alter where people live, with some rural townships facing steep depopulation while a few urban hubs remain magnets for jobs.
For employers, a shrinking pipeline of young workers means fiercer competition for talent, higher wages in key fields, and more investment in automation. Companies are already expanding the use of software and robotics to maintain output with fewer hands. Taiwan’s high digital adoption, fast fixed broadband, and growing use of cloud services can help raise productivity, but matching technology to care work and service jobs is more complex.
Public finances will need careful planning. Fewer taxpayers must support larger spending on health care, long term care, and pensions. Policymakers are weighing changes to retirement age, contribution rates, and benefit formulas, while encouraging lifelong learning and later career participation. The scale of adjustment will depend on how fertility, immigration, and productivity evolve in the next decade.
Migration helps, but cannot offset the decline
Taiwan recorded a net migration gain of 272 people in October, a positive, but small buffer against natural decrease. In some months earlier this year, emigration slightly exceeded immigration. Over a full year, inflows of students, professionals, caregivers, and family members can slow population loss, yet the numbers required to fully counter low births would be very large.
Immigration policy is a sensitive area, and successful programs rely on clear pathways for residency, protections for workers, and support for families. Taiwan has widened recruitment of caregivers and skilled workers in recent years. Long term impact depends on retention, integration, and how many migrants choose to settle permanently and raise families.
How Taiwan compares across East Asia
Taiwan is not alone. Fertility has fallen across high income East Asia to levels far below replacement. South Korea’s rate is near 0.7, Hong Kong is under 0.8, Taiwan sits near 0.85 to 0.9, Japan is around 1.2, and China is near 1.0. Every country in this group is aging quickly, and each has tried large scale incentives, tax breaks, housing support, or childcare expansion with limited effect on births.
Experience elsewhere shows that cash incentives can lift births for a short window, then the effect fades. Durable gains tend to come from deeper shifts, such as shorter work hours, more flexible jobs, reliable public childcare, and changes in norms around fathers taking leave. Even with progress, fertility often stabilizes near 1.4 to 1.6, still below replacement, which means population decline continues without immigration.
What leaders are doing now
The government is moving on several fronts. Measures under discussion or already in place include broader subsidies for assisted reproduction, an expanded maternity leave allowance, more affordable childcare, incentives for employers that adopt flexible schedules, and the use of artificial intelligence and automation to reduce manpower needs where possible. Fiscal planning is underway to stabilize health insurance and pension funds as the age profile shifts.
A senior economic planner has warned that the labor market effect of any rise in births will take time to arrive. National Development Council Deputy Minister Kao framed the challenge in practical terms.
Even if the government reverses the current low birth rate, children will take 20 years to enter the labor force after their birth, meaning that the government has to address issues in parallel.
That view underpins a twin track approach. One track supports families now, including fertility treatment subsidies, childbirth allowances, and childcare capacity. The other raises productivity and expands participation, bringing more older adults, women, and foreign workers into the workforce with training, protections, and fair pay. Cities are also testing age friendly design, from barrier free transit to safer sidewalks and community care centers.
Explaining the numbers
The crude birth rate and crude death rate are counts per 1,000 people in a given time period. They provide a simple view of how quickly a population is growing or shrinking. Natural population change is the difference between births and deaths. When deaths exceed births, the population declines unless immigration fills the gap.
The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime. Replacement level is about 2.1 in developed economies. Median age is the point where half the population is older and half is younger. A super aged society has at least 20 percent of people aged 65 or older. Taiwan is only a fraction below that mark.
Monthly numbers can bounce because of holidays, school calendars, and cultural timing. Some families aim for birth years considered lucky in the lunar zodiac. The multi year trend still depends on economic security, workplace norms, and practical support for raising children. Those forces change slowly, which is why demographic trends move gradually once they take hold.
Key Points
- Taiwan’s population fell by 6,178 in October 2025 to 23,310,853.
- Births totaled 9,458 for the month, down 22 percent from October 2024.
- Deaths reached 15,908, keeping the crude death rate above the crude birth rate.
- The natural population decrease was 6,450 in October.
- Net migration added 272 people, not enough to offset natural decline.
- People aged 65 and older are 19.9 percent of the population, near the super aged threshold.
- Children 14 and under are 11.55 percent, while 15 to 64 year olds are 68.55 percent.
- October saw 10,735 marriages and 4,511 divorces.
- Projections indicate a population near 15 million by 2070 if low fertility persists.
- Policy levers include fertility treatment subsidies, leave allowances, childcare expansion, flexible work, and targeted automation.
