Philippines and China Bring Deepening Maritime Rift to Manila ASEAN Summit

A regional summit faces a dispute far from settled

Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro says 80 percent of a proposed South China Sea code of conduct is finished. The remaining disputes, including which waters it would cover, threaten to keep the agreement out of reach as leaders gather in Manila for the 49th Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in November 2026.

The negotiations face a deadline set in 2023, when foreign ministers agreed to work toward completing the accord within three years. Philippine negotiators have met their counterparts at least monthly during Manila's 2026 ASEAN chairmanship, yet they have not secured consensus. Three regional diplomats expect the talks to remain unfinished this year.

At sea, the pressures are immediate. Manila has accused Chinese forces of obstructing supplies to Philippine troops, ramming vessels and firing flares toward an aircraft. Beijing has announced sanctions against Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and repeatedly asserted its authority around disputed Scarborough Shoal.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has moved closer to the United States since taking office in 2022. Joint exercises with American and Japanese forces now accompany diplomatic efforts to manage relations with China. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is expected at the Manila gathering, while a special US-ASEAN meeting is planned for November 17.

The dispute links several practical concerns: whether fishing and government vessels can operate safely, whether troops receive essential supplies, and whether energy cooperation can proceed in contested waters. ASEAN's proposed code aims to manage those encounters and prevent conflict, even while governments continue to disagree over maritime rights.

Scarborough Shoal becomes a recurring flashpoint

Scarborough Shoal lies about 124 nautical miles west of the Philippine province of Zambales, inside the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. Both Manila and Beijing claim the shoal. An exclusive economic zone gives a coastal country rights over resources such as fish and offshore energy; ownership of a disputed feature is a separate legal question.

On January 6, 2025, the Philippines deployed ships and aircraft to monitor China's largest coast guard vessel in that zone. Manila accused the Chinese navy of a dangerous flyby near Scarborough on February 18, an allegation Beijing disputed. Satellite images showed two Chinese H-6 bombers deployed around the shoal on March 28.

The confrontations continued that August. Manila said dangerous Chinese manoeuvres on August 12 led to a collision involving a Chinese ship. The following day, China said it had driven away an American destroyer near the shoal; the US Navy said its operation complied with international law.

China approved a national nature reserve at Scarborough on September 10, 2025. Six days later, Manila said Chinese coast guard water cannon injured one person during an encounter with Philippine ships. By October 30, 2026, China was conducting further Scarborough naval and air patrols, while Philippine authorities investigated a Chinese vessel carrying unidentified equipment inside the lagoon.

Aircraft encounters add another layer of danger

China said on January 20, 2026, that it had driven away a Philippine aircraft from airspace over Scarborough Shoal, describing its presence as illegal. On March 18, Beijing said it had expelled two more Philippine aircraft above the disputed feature.

Manila raised a different concern on March 20, accusing a Chinese navy vessel of directing its fire control radar at a Philippine ship. Such radar helps a weapons system track a target and calculate where to aim, making its use a particularly sensitive signal during an encounter.

The Philippine Coast Guard accused Chinese forces on April 9 of firing flares directly at one of its aircraft in the South China Sea. Flares are bright burning devices used for purposes including signalling and distracting heat seeking missiles. Sending them toward an aircraft creates a more immediate safety concern than monitoring it from a distance.

Naval, air force and coast guard operations increasingly overlap around the same disputed waters. Aircraft crews and ship commanders must make quick decisions while their governments give competing accounts of who has authority to operate there.

Fishing vessels and supply crews bear the pressure

Philippine accusations extend beyond military aircraft and warships. On October 12, 2025, Manila accused the Chinese coast guard of ramming and using water cannon against fisheries vessels near Thitu Island, which the Philippines occupies.

On July 20, 2026, Philippine authorities said Chinese coast guard personnel struck a Philippine navy sailor in the head with a wooden baton during an encounter in the South China Sea. Three days later, Manila said a Chinese coast guard vessel fired water cannon at a Philippine government fisheries vessel near Scarborough.

The Philippines reported another ramming on September 18, this time involving a Philippine boat on a refuelling mission. On September 25, it accused China of obstructing a resupply operation for troops at Second Thomas Shoal.

Those troops depend on deliveries to the BRP Sierra Madre, the Philippine ship stationed at the shoal. Food and other daily necessities make access a continuing operational need, rather than an occasional diplomatic issue.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said an October 21 supply delivery reached the Sierra Madre under Chinese approval, checks and monitoring. Beijing's description asserted its authority over the operation. The two countries have a provisional arrangement for humanitarian deliveries, allowing a practical supply channel while their wider disagreement continues.

Military partnerships widen the regional picture

The Philippines has expanded military cooperation as confrontations with China have continued. On August 4, 2025, the Philippine and Indian navies sailed together in the South China Sea for the first time.

Philippine and American forces held joint exercises near Scarborough Shoal on January 27, 2026. A month later, on February 27, the Philippines joined maritime exercises with the United States and Japan, while China conducted its own drills in the disputed sea.

The activity spread across several locations in April and May. China held exercises using live ammunition near Luzon on April 25 while Manila and Washington conducted war games. Philippine and American forces staged drills in Palawan province on April 27, then deployed a missile system designed to strike ships in a province near Taiwan on May 2.

Manila's closer partnerships bring more foreign military forces into the regional security picture. Beijing has consistently accused the United States and its allies of interference, while Washington supports the Philippines in its maritime disputes with China. The August 2025 destroyer encounter illustrated how an operation involving a third country can quickly become part of the bilateral confrontation.

Energy talks continue alongside disputes over research

Reed Bank, an area rich in gas resources, connects the maritime dispute to possible energy development. On May 7, 2026, the Philippines said a Chinese vessel had carried out illegal research near the bank.

The allegation followed a May 5, 2025, encounter off the Ilocos coast, where Philippine authorities challenged a Chinese research ship over what they described as an illegal marine survey. Surveys collect information about the sea and seabed, making permission to conduct them sensitive where governments disagree over resource rights.

Beijing and Manila nevertheless resumed talks on energy cooperation. On March 29, 2026, China conducted naval, air and coast guard patrols around Scarborough after those discussions restarted. Diplomatic contact and maritime pressure were proceeding at the same time.

The Philippines also took diplomatic action on June 9 over a floating structure in the South China Sea. Across these incidents, the recurring issue is who can authorize research, installations and resource related activity in contested areas.

An ambassador's remarks deepen the diplomatic rupture

China announced sanctions against Teodoro on June 11, accusing the Philippine defence secretary of repeatedly making erroneous remarks about China. Later exchanges became increasingly personal, with Philippine officials and the Chinese embassy publicly challenging each other.

Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan addressed the possibility of force while responding to a question about Teodoro calling China a troublemaker. Jing told reporters:

"we may easily win. But no, we will not choose force. We love peace".

Marcos said the remarks sounded like a threat. Manila rebuked the ambassador on October 16 and said on October 19 that it had summoned him over statements conveying a threat. Philippine senators also called for his expulsion.

The argument spilled into the Cebu defence meetings in late October. China said a late invitation left inadequate preparation time and sent its Manila defence attaché rather than its defence minister. Teodoro said China had been invited and its representative had been able to speak.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Lazaro and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi then held talks to calm relations on November 3. Wang urged Manila to restrain officials and present a unified policy toward China. Lazaro described the conversation as frank and constructive.

Why the unfinished code matters

ASEAN and China have discussed a South China Sea code of conduct for more than 20 years. The proposed agreement would set expectations for behaviour in disputed waters, with the aim of reducing tensions and preventing conflict.

Lazaro gave a numerical measure of progress while acknowledging that difficult points still required agreement. The Philippine foreign secretary said:

"I just want to say that at this point in time, 80 percent of the document itself is finished".

Geographical scope is among the contested issues. Before governments can agree on how ships should behave, they need to settle which waters the document addresses. Beijing asserts jurisdiction over nearly the entire South China Sea despite the 2016 international arbitration ruling rejecting the legal basis for its sweeping historic rights claim.

Philippine foreign affairs spokesperson Dominic Xavier Imperial said Manila also wants the accord to respect the rights of countries outside the region. That concern sits directly alongside Beijing's objections to American and allied operations.

The Philippines faces pressure both as a claimant and as ASEAN chair. Aries Arugay, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines, said a strong document could attract accusations that Manila had pushed its own interests, while a weak one could expose the Marcos administration to criticism at home.

Lucio Pitlo, past president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies, said the diplomatic effort helped secure Li Qiang's attendance. He nevertheless expected trade protectionism, supply disruptions and other economic concerns to compete for leaders' attention. No revised completion date for the code has been announced.

The dates that brought the dispute to Manila

The confrontations developed through repeated encounters rather than a single break in relations. The main turning points show military activity, practical supply disputes and diplomacy repeatedly crossing paths.

• January 6, 2025: The Philippines deploys ships and aircraft to monitor China's largest coast guard vessel in its exclusive economic zone.
• September 10 and 16, 2025: China approves a Scarborough nature reserve; days later, Manila says a water cannon encounter there injures one person.
• January 27 and February 27, 2026: Philippine forces exercise with the United States near Scarborough, then join maritime drills with American and Japanese forces.
• April 9, 2026: The Philippine Coast Guard accuses Chinese forces of firing flares directly at an aircraft.
• June 11, 2026: China announces sanctions against Teodoro.
• September 18 and 25, 2026: Manila reports a ramming during a refuelling mission and obstruction of a Second Thomas Shoal resupply operation.
• October 19, 2026: The Philippines says it summoned China's ambassador over remarks it considered threatening.
• November 3, 2026: Lazaro and Wang discuss managing differences before the Manila summit.
• November 17, 2026: A special US-ASEAN meeting is planned during the summit program.

Manila now has to host regional negotiations while managing its own active dispute with Beijing. Li's expected participation preserves contact at a senior level, even as disagreements over maritime operations and the code's remaining provisions continue.

Key Points

• Lazaro says 80 percent of the South China Sea code of conduct is finished, with geographical scope among the unresolved issues.
• The Philippines has accused Chinese forces of ramming vessels, obstructing supplies, firing water cannon and directing flares at an aircraft.
• China asserts authority around disputed shoals and has sanctioned Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro.
• Manila has expanded exercises with the United States and Japan, while also maintaining diplomatic and energy discussions with Beijing.
• Chinese Premier Li Qiang is expected at the Manila ASEAN summit, and a special US-ASEAN meeting is planned for November 17.