Government forecast puts overseas cuts far below the goal
South Korea may secure just 6.58 million tonnes of greenhouse gas reductions overseas by 2035, leaving roughly four fifths of the international reductions envisaged under two proposed national climate plans unfilled, according to an internal government assessment.
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The National Climate Crisis Response Committee's international reduction expert committee prepared the August report, titled International Greenhouse Gas Reduction Results and Outlook. It projects enough overseas reductions to meet only 22.1% of the 29.8 million tonnes included in a proposal to cut national emissions by 53% from 2018 levels. Against a more ambitious proposal for a 61% national reduction, the projected supply would meet just 19.4% of the planned 34 million tonnes.
The consequences extend beyond the overseas part of the plans. Even if South Korea completes its planned domestic reductions, the assessment projects a national reduction of only 49.9% under the first proposal and 57.3% under the second if international reductions remain at the forecast level.
Seo Wang-jin, a Rebuilding Korea Party lawmaker on the National Assembly's Climate, Energy, Environment and Labor Committee, obtained the report through his office. He called for the government to redesign domestic targets for electricity, industry, transport and buildings so that more emissions are cut inside South Korea.
What South Korea is counting overseas
International reductions are cuts in greenhouse gas emissions achieved in another country that South Korea secures and counts toward its own national climate goal. The domestic part of the plan covers reductions within South Korea; the international part relies on reductions abroad.
A national climate pledge is known as a nationally determined contribution, or NDC. In this case, the proposed percentages describe how far South Korea aims to reduce emissions by 2035 compared with its 2018 level. A larger percentage means a deeper reduction.
The two proposals both assign some of that task to international reductions. The practical question is how much South Korea can actually secure, rather than how much its planning documents assign to overseas activity.
The committee's forecast puts that obtainable amount at 6.58 million tonnes. Because both proposals rely on considerably more, the same forecast leaves a gap under either level of ambition.
How large is the missing amount?
The proposal for a 53% national reduction includes 29.8 million tonnes of international reductions. Subtracting the projected 6.58 million tonnes leaves 23.22 million tonnes still to be secured, or 77.9% of the international target.
The proposal for a 61% national reduction includes 34 million tonnes from overseas. Against the same forecast, its missing amount is 27.42 million tonnes, or 80.6% of the international target.
- 53% proposal: 29.8 million tonnes planned overseas, 6.58 million tonnes projected, and a gap of 23.22 million tonnes.
- 61% proposal: 34 million tonnes planned overseas, 6.58 million tonnes projected, and a gap of 27.42 million tonnes.
The more ambitious proposal therefore requires another 4.2 million tonnes of international reductions compared with the lower proposal. Yet the projected amount available to meet either target remains the same. Raising the overseas allocation increases the amount that must be found.
Put simply, South Korea expects to secure about one tonne for every five tonnes assigned to international reductions. The exact share varies between the proposals, but both place a substantial part of their planned climate effort beyond the volume currently projected.
Why domestic success would still leave a gap
South Korea's national target combines domestic reductions with reductions secured abroad. Completing the domestic portion would therefore leave the international portion to be met before the full target could be reached.
The committee's assessment calculates what would happen if domestic plans were carried out as intended while international reductions stayed at 6.58 million tonnes. Under the 53% proposal, the national reduction would reach 49.9% from the 2018 baseline, a gap of 3.1 percentage points. Under the 61% proposal, it would reach 57.3%, a gap of 3.7 percentage points.
Percentage points describe the distance between two percentages. Here, the first calculation means that a planned reduction of 53% becomes a projected reduction of 49.9% once the missing overseas contribution is taken into account.
The domestic measures would still deliver their planned contribution in that scenario. The remaining task would be to secure additional international reductions or assign more of the reduction effort to activities within South Korea.
Warnings from inside the climate committee
The committee secretariat has repeatedly called for realistic international targets and annual implementation plans, according to the August assessment. Its concern is about matching the target to a credible sequence of reductions that can be secured over time.
An annual implementation plan would break the task into yearly amounts. That would make it possible to compare the reductions expected in each year with the amount needed for the 2035 goal, rather than relying only on a total at the end of the period.
The report says the international reduction target may need to be reassigned to other sectors. If making those adjustments proves difficult, it calls for comprehensive reform of the system. From 2031 onward, annual plans should reflect the quantities that can actually be secured.
The assessment does not specify which overseas projects account for the projected shortage, how much additional reductions would cost, or a deadline for deciding on a revised allocation. Those details matter to choosing between obtaining more reductions abroad and increasing the domestic contribution.
Seo calls for more reductions at home
Seo Wang-jin, the lawmaker whose office obtained the assessment, said the government should respond by revising the domestic parts of its climate plan. In comments translated from Korean, he said:
The government's domestic documents confirm that even its own 2035 national greenhouse gas reduction target will be difficult to achieve under the current outlook for international reductions.
Seo identified electricity, industry, transport and buildings as the sectors whose targets should be redesigned. His proposal would shift more responsibility toward reducing emissions within South Korea, rather than trying to fill the entire shortfall through additional overseas projects.
For electricity suppliers, manufacturers, transport operators and building owners, such a revision would mean changes to the amount of emissions their sectors are expected to cut. The report does not assign new figures to those sectors, so the distribution of any additional domestic effort remains undecided.
The dates that shape the decision
The assessment connects an immediate planning problem with two later milestones: the annual plans beginning in 2031 and the national target year of 2035.
- August 2026: The international reduction expert committee prepared International Greenhouse Gas Reduction Results and Outlook.
- 2031 onward: The report calls for annual international reduction plans based on quantities that can actually be secured.
- 2035: The target year for the proposed national emissions reductions of 53% or 61% compared with 2018.
The central choice is how to close the gap between the international reductions written into the proposals and the much smaller amount forecast. The committee secretariat's recommendations and Seo's call both point toward revisiting the allocation of responsibility, with domestic sectors potentially taking on more.
Key Points
- South Korea is projected to secure 6.58 million tonnes of international greenhouse gas reductions by 2035.
- That would meet 22.1% of the overseas target under the 53% proposal and 19.4% under the 61% proposal.
- The missing international reductions total 23.22 million tonnes and 27.42 million tonnes respectively.
- Even with planned domestic reductions completed, the assessment projects national reductions of 49.9% or 57.3% from 2018 levels.
- The climate committee secretariat has called for realistic targets and annual plans, while Seo Wang-jin wants more reductions assigned to domestic sectors.
