Japan's July 20 Election Puts Immigration, National Identity and Ishiba's Future in Focus

A Majority at Risk as Immigration Takes Center Stage

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) face a precise electoral target on July 20: their coalition with Komeito must win at least 50 of the 125 seats being contested to retain a majority in Japan's Upper House, which has 248 seats. With the government already lacking a majority in the Lower House, another defeat could deepen political deadlock and put Ishiba's leadership under greater pressure.

As of July 4, 2025, the campaign is bringing together several sources of public frustration: rising living costs, political funding scandals, a shrinking workforce and growing arguments about the place of foreigners in Japanese society. The election is becoming a contest over how Japan should respond to population decline while protecting the customs and institutions that voters value.

A Weekly Fuji survey found that 61% of respondents considered the "foreigner issue" the most important election topic, ahead of tax cuts or government handouts. The term brings together different concerns, including immigration enforcement, foreign ownership of land, tourism, cultural friction and claims that foreigners receive unfair advantages through public programs.

Sanseito, a populist party founded in 2020 and led by Sohei Kamiya, has made those concerns central to its "Japan First" campaign. Its rapid rise is pushing established parties to respond, even as Japan's aging population and record low birth rate increase pressure to accept foreign workers.

For voters, the debate connects national identity with practical questions about jobs, household budgets and public services. For Ishiba, it adds another challenge to governing after the ruling coalition's major defeat in last year's snap Lower House election.

Ishiba's Language Remarks Draw a Rebuke

Ishiba sparked controversy during a televised debate ahead of the election when he described Japanese language and customs as "very tedious" while discussing how foreigners should learn to live in Japan. His remarks combined an offer of government support for learning with a demand that those entering the country obey its laws.

Ishiba, the prime minister and LDP leader, described his proposed approach in these words:

We want foreigners to properly learn the 'very tedious' Japanese language and customs—even at the expense of the Japanese government—and allow in only those who follow Japan's laws.

Veteran opposition lawmaker Ichiro Ozawa of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) objected to the way Ishiba spoke about the country's language and traditions. Ozawa said the remarks showed a lack of respect for Japanese culture:

I cannot sense any reverence for the Japanese language, traditions or culture. These remarks will offend many citizens and are completely unbecoming of a prime minister.

The exchange shows how sensitive the wording of immigration policy has become. Ishiba was discussing integration, meaning the process through which newcomers learn a country's language, customs and rules. Ozawa focused on whether the prime minister's description respected the society into which foreigners were being asked to integrate.

The backlash arrives while Ishiba is dealing with dissatisfaction over living costs and political scandals. It gives his opponents another point of attack during a campaign in which both economic competence and national identity are under scrutiny.

Japan Needs Workers but Faces Resistance to Immigration

Japan's shrinking and aging population is central to the policy dispute. A record low birth rate means fewer young people are entering a society in which older people account for a growing share of the population. A smaller workforce makes it harder to fill jobs, putting pressure on the government to relax immigration policies.

Foreign workers offer a response to those shortages, but greater immigration also requires decisions about language learning, access to public services and relations between newcomers and established residents. Ishiba's proposal to support learning Japanese language and customs addresses part of that practical task.

National identity makes the debate more difficult. Japan has long presented itself as a "homogenous" society and an "island nation," ideas that can make greater openness feel like a challenge to familiar ways of life. Concerns about security, cultural friction and perceived abuse of social systems sit alongside the economic case for accepting more workers.

Kawaguchi City in Saitama illustrates how these arguments reach local communities. Tensions between residents and foreign communities, including Kurdish migrants, have become a flashpoint. The campaign's broad promises therefore concern places where people are already navigating disagreements about living together.

Political choices about immigration will affect both the businesses seeking workers and the communities receiving them. The central disagreement is how to combine the need for labor with rules that residents and newcomers can understand and follow.

Sanseito Builds Its Campaign Around Japan First

Sanseito has grown quickly since its founding in 2020. Kamiya's party draws on dissatisfaction with economic stagnation, excessive tourism and the perception that foreigners receive "preferential treatment." Its message presents stronger limits on foreign influence as a response to pressures felt by Japanese households.

The party's platform combines restrictions on people entering Japan with proposals concerning property, constitutional rules and the country's food supply:

• Restrict immigration and foreign tourism.
• Ban foreign ownership of Japanese land and real estate.
• Rewrite the postwar Constitution to give greater weight to Japanese sovereignty.
• Promote traditional culture and food self-sufficiency.

Sovereignty means a country's authority to make its own decisions. Food self-sufficiency means producing enough food domestically to meet the country's needs. In Sanseito's platform, both ideas sit alongside a broader demand for Japan to reduce its dependence on outsiders.

At party gatherings, supporters have discussed reviving wartime slogans and proposed constitutional changes to enshrine the idea that "Japan belongs to the Japanese people." Those discussions connect the party's immediate immigration proposals with a wider effort to redefine national belonging.

Sanseito's appeal is especially strong among younger Japanese. Its use of social media and messaging against established politics gives frustrated voters a way to express dissatisfaction with parties that have long shaped national government.

Young Supporters and a Powerful Online Presence

An 18-year-old university student from Nara Prefecture explained support for Sanseito through the belief that Japanese citizens were struggling while outsiders received too much help. The student's account linked household hardship with resentment over spending abroad and the treatment of foreigners:

Japanese people are struggling, but they are giving money away to foreign countries and giving excessive preferential treatment to foreigners.

Kamiya's stage presence and emotional speeches have led to comparisons with a pop idol. Sanseito's YouTube channel is the most followed among Japanese political parties, giving it a large platform for reaching voters beyond traditional campaign events.

The party's online strength helps connect its leadership with a new generation of voters. Its message gathers economic frustration, concern about tourism and arguments about national identity into a single political appeal.

Supporters' complaints also show why immigration cannot be separated from the cost of living in this campaign. A voter who feels financially squeezed may judge government spending and public services through the question of who receives help first. Sanseito has placed that question at the center of its pitch.

Established Parties Tighten Their Positions

The LDP has toughened its immigration rhetoric as Sanseito gains attention. Traditionally cautious about immigration, the ruling party now advocates "zero illegal immigrants," stricter enforcement and action against foreigners who fail to pay taxes or social insurance contributions.

Social insurance contributions are payments into systems that support services and benefits. The LDP's position links permission to remain in Japan with meeting those financial obligations, alongside compliance with immigration law.

The LDP and its allies also support tighter controls on foreign land ownership and the use of social programs. Some members of the party's hawkish wing have called for abolishing duty-free shopping for tourists, extending the argument beyond immigration to the benefits available to visitors.

The Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) have also called for stricter controls on foreign land ownership and stronger enforcement of visa rules. Visas set the conditions under which foreigners can enter or stay in a country.

After accusations of xenophobia, or hostility toward foreigners, some parties have softened their wording and stressed "orderly" integration instead of outright exclusion. That shift shows the political pressure to address voters' concerns while avoiding language that treats foreigners as a single unwelcome group.

The CDP and Japanese Communist Party offer a different response. Both support multicultural coexistence and propose new laws to encourage integration and respect between Japanese and foreign residents. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda argues that welcoming more foreigners is necessary to address labor shortages and sustain Japan's economy.

Food and Fuel Prices Drive Dissatisfaction

Japan's economic difficulties provide much of the energy behind the campaign. Stagnation, rising prices and pressure on household budgets have made voters impatient with government responses. Immigration dominates much of the political debate, but the frustration beneath it often concerns the cost of ordinary life.

A recent "rice panic" saw the price of the staple food double before emergency reserves were released. A doubling means households faced a price twice its earlier level for an essential purchase. The episode made economic insecurity visible through a product central to everyday meals.

The yen's decline and global trade tensions, particularly with the United States, have added to the strain. Wage stagnation leaves households struggling to keep pace with higher prices, while concerns about the sustainability of social security add uncertainty about longer term support.

Ishiba's proposed "20 yen per citizen" initiative has been criticized as out of touch with ordinary people's needs. Voters are calling for deeper changes to address inflation, stagnant wages and the future of social security rather than relying on government handouts.

A resident of Kagawa Prefecture described how rising fuel costs affect people outside major urban centers, where a car is often necessary for daily travel:

People in regional areas are reliant on cars, and the soaring gasoline prices are being felt particularly hard.

Political funding scandals have added another layer of dissatisfaction. Calls for greater transparency and action against corruption reflect damaged trust in the ruling party, making economic promises harder to separate from questions about how political leaders conduct themselves.

What the July 20 Vote Could Change

The Upper House election tests whether the LDP and Komeito can preserve their majority in one chamber while governing without a majority in the other. Their target of at least 50 seats out of the 125 being contested is therefore a test of the coalition's ability to maintain parliamentary support.

Japan's parliament has two chambers, the Lower House and Upper House. Losing a majority in both would make it harder for the coalition to secure support for its program and could deepen political stalemate.

A defeat could also increase pressure on Ishiba to resign. The election is unlikely to immediately remove the government, but its outcome could set the stage for changes in leadership or new political alignments.

The opposition remains fragmented. The CDP, DPP and Sanseito are all competing for influence, and their positions on immigration differ. Their shared opposition to the government therefore does not translate into a single plan for governing.

The campaign's main developments span several years:

• 2020: Sanseito was founded.
• 2024: The ruling coalition suffered a major defeat in the snap Lower House election, leaving Ishiba heading a minority government.
• July 4, 2025: Immigration, living costs and national identity are central issues in the campaign.
• July 20, 2025: Voters will choose representatives for 125 Upper House seats.

The result will determine the coalition's parliamentary position and the strength of parties challenging it. It will also show how far dissatisfaction with established politics has translated into support for Sanseito.

History Shapes the Debate Over National Identity

Japan's relationship with immigration carries a long historical legacy. For centuries, the country followed sakoku, a policy of self-imposed isolation that limited contact with the outside world. After opening up in the late 19th century, it continued to maintain strict immigration controls and take pride in cultural homogeneity.

Only 17.5% of Japanese citizens hold passports. Many are taught from a young age that Japan is unique and needs protection from outside influences. Those beliefs provide part of the setting in which today's immigration arguments are unfolding.

Foreign investment in real estate and the influx of tourists into major cities make international connections visible in daily life. Economic anxiety can sharpen reactions to those changes, particularly when residents feel that their own financial security is weakening.

Population decline places a competing demand on the country. Japan faces pressure to bring in workers even as some voters seek stronger limits on foreign involvement. The election brings that tension between preserving familiar traditions and adapting to economic needs into the center of national politics.

Trump's Example and Japan's International Pressures

Kamiya has explicitly cited Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement as an example. Sanseito's "Japan First" rhetoric echoes that focus on defending national interests and appeals to voters who feel left behind by globalization or distrust foreign influence.

Japan's political establishment also faces pressure from international partners, particularly the United States, to open markets and take a more active role in global affairs. Trade tensions, defense spending and the status of U.S. military bases in Japan are sources of friction and political debate.

These pressures connect the domestic campaign with Japan's relationships abroad. Restrictions on foreign workers, tourists or property ownership concern how the country deals with people and investment arriving from elsewhere, while trade and defense arguments concern its obligations and choices as an international partner.

The campaign has prompted warnings about the growth of opposition to globalization and support for isolation, with possible consequences for Japan's economy, society and international standing. The immediate choice on July 20 is about parliamentary seats, but the competing platforms also describe different directions for Japan's relationship with the outside world.

Key Points

• The LDP and Komeito need at least 50 of the 125 seats contested on July 20 to retain their Upper House majority.
• Ishiba's description of Japanese language and customs as "very tedious" drew criticism from CDP lawmaker Ichiro Ozawa.
• A Weekly Fuji survey found that 61% of respondents ranked the "foreigner issue" as their leading election concern.
• Sanseito is gaining support with proposals to restrict immigration and tourism, ban foreign land ownership and rewrite the Constitution.
• The LDP, Ishin and DPP favor tighter controls, while the CDP and Japanese Communist Party support laws promoting coexistence.
• Rice and gasoline prices, stagnant wages and political funding scandals are feeding dissatisfaction with the government.
• Japan's shrinking workforce increases demand for foreign workers while national identity remains central to the debate.
• A coalition defeat could deepen parliamentary deadlock and increase pressure on Ishiba's leadership.