Vietnam Passes $1 Trillion in Goods Trade as October Surplus Narrows Deficit

A record month brings a trillion dollar milestone

Vietnam's goods trade passed $1 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, reaching about $1.0106 trillion as exports from factories and rising imports pushed commerce up 32.3% from a year earlier. October brought a second consecutive monthly trade surplus, helping reduce a deficit accumulated earlier in the year.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade's Import-Export Department estimated October trade at a record $122.2 billion, up 47.6% from October 2025. Its estimates put exports for January through October at about $499 billion, an increase of 27.4%, well above the government's target of 15% to 16% export growth for the full year.

The department estimated October's surplus at $6.8 billion and the cumulative deficit at about $12.7 billion. Preliminary statistics put those balances at a $7.31 billion monthly surplus and a $12.07 billion cumulative deficit, with exports of $499.24 billion and imports of $511.31 billion.

Trade turnover means the combined value of goods entering and leaving the country. Vietnam crossed the trillion dollar threshold through both stronger overseas sales and faster growth in purchases from abroad. Imports rose 37.4% in the preliminary figures, compared with export growth of 27.5%.

That combination captures the central challenge behind the milestone: Vietnam is moving more goods through global supply chains while seeking to keep more production, business income and technical expertise at home.

Can the final two months bring the deficit down further?

October's preliminary exports reached $64.67 billion, up 8.7% from September, while imports fell 1.4% to $57.36 billion. The resulting $7.31 billion surplus followed a surplus of $1.30 billion in September.

Two months of surpluses have improved the balance, although Vietnam remains behind its position a year earlier. The first 10 months of 2025 produced a $19.49 billion surplus. Against the preliminary deficit of $12.07 billion in 2026, that represents a deterioration of $31.56 billion.

Trinh Thi Thu Hien, deputy director of the Import-Export Department, said the peak production and export season could help reduce the deficit below $10 billion if exports continue growing faster than imports. Using the preliminary balance, Vietnam would need a combined surplus exceeding $2.07 billion in November and December to reach that level.

Orders placed months earlier and consumer demand toward the end of the year are expected to support shipments, particularly to the United States. The ministry's immediate task is to sustain those sales while helping companies meet the requirements of their destination markets.

China supplies goods while the United States leads purchases

The United States was Vietnam's largest export destination during January through October, buying $159.40 billion of goods. China was its largest source of imports, supplying $212.46 billion. Those amounts represented about 31.9% of Vietnam's exports and 41.6% of its imports, respectively.

Vietnam recorded a $140.10 billion surplus with the United States, up 26.2% from a year earlier, alongside a $134.94 billion deficit with China, up 43.2%. The country also ran a $40.84 billion surplus with the European Union and a $3.42 billion surplus with Japan.

South Korea and ASEAN were substantial sources of net imports. Vietnam's deficits with them reached $48.63 billion and $16.93 billion, respectively. ASEAN is the regional grouping Vietnam joined in 1995.

China and the United States together accounted for more than $410 billion in trade through September. Trade with China reached $253.24 billion, including $65.9 billion in Vietnamese exports and $187.34 billion in imports. Commerce with the United States exceeded $157 billion, comprising about $140 billion in exports and $17 billion in imports.

Combined trade with the two partners is expected to exceed $500 billion by the end of 2026. Their different roles help explain Vietnam's trade pattern: factories buy substantial quantities from Asian suppliers while selling large volumes to American consumers and businesses.

Exports expand beyond the two biggest partners

Vietnam also recorded export growth across the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and ASEAN. Exports to Japan increased 18.6%, shipments to South Korea rose 19.1%, sales to Canada grew 14.4%, and exports to Mexico advanced 42.5%.

The figures support the ministry's push to broaden export destinations. With nearly a third of export revenue coming from the United States, growth elsewhere gives businesses more customers to draw on when demand or trade policies change in a major market.

National Assembly deputy Tran Hoang Ngan of Ho Chi Minh City pointed to Vietnam's 18 signed free trade agreements as a basis for expanding market access. Economic expert Dinh Trong Thinh also credited government export policies with helping trade grow.

Free trade agreements can lower tariffs, which are taxes charged on imported goods. Businesses still have to satisfy the agreement's conditions, including rules about where a product was made and how much processing took place there. Turning access into actual sales therefore requires both competitive products and reliable records.

Foreign invested factories dominate exports

Businesses with foreign investment exported $405.31 billion of goods during the first 10 months, including crude oil, according to the preliminary figures. Their exports rose 33% and accounted for 81.2% of the national total.

Domestic businesses exported $93.93 billion, up 8.2%, giving them an 18.8% share. Both groups increased sales, but the much faster expansion among foreign invested companies widened their lead.

The balance of imports and exports also differed sharply. Domestic businesses recorded a $37.83 billion trade deficit, while the foreign invested sector generated a $25.76 billion surplus. Domestic companies imported $131.76 billion, compared with $379.55 billion for companies with foreign investment.

Industrial production rose 12.4% during the period, and registered foreign direct investment reached $54.85 billion. Registered investment covers commitments recorded by authorities; it is different from money already spent on factories, equipment or other projects.

For Vietnamese suppliers, the practical opportunity is to secure more orders for materials, components and services from the large factories operating in the country. The ministry's draft trade strategy makes a larger domestic export contribution an explicit goal, alongside greater processing and technology content.

What Vietnam sells, and what its factories buy

Processed industrial goods remained the dominant export group. The Import-Export Department put their share at 87.4%; the preliminary statistical breakdown put it at 90.7%, worth $452.74 billion. A reason for the difference was not specified.

The preliminary breakdown valued agricultural and forestry exports at $33.48 billion, fisheries exports at $10.36 billion, and fuel and mineral exports at $2.66 billion. Together, those categories accounted for the remaining 9.3% of exports.

Export earnings were concentrated in a relatively small group of major products. Thirty seven product categories each generated more than $1 billion and together accounted for 94.9% of exports. Eight categories exceeded $10 billion each and made up 73.4% of total export value.

On the import side, goods used in production reached $481.03 billion, or 94.1% of the total. Machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts represented 58.5% of imports, while materials and fuels accounted for 35.6%. Consumer goods made up the remaining 5.9%, worth $30.28 billion.

These purchases connect the import surge directly to production capacity and factory inputs. Building stronger local supply networks would give manufacturers more options for obtaining those inputs within Vietnam, while allowing domestic businesses to earn a greater share of the value created before a finished product leaves the country.

Trade investigations make documentation more urgent

Vietnamese products had faced 327 trade defence investigations across 27 markets by the middle of September 2026. Twenty seven new cases began during the first nine months, more than the total initiated during all of 2025.

Trade defence investigations examine complaints that imports are being sold unfairly or are harming domestic producers. They can result in extra duties, making affected goods more expensive for buyers and reducing an exporter's ability to compete.

The Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam identified 50 export product categories at risk of investigation, particularly concerning suspected origin fraud or illegal transshipment. Transshipment becomes a concern when goods are routed through another country to avoid duties or restrictions that apply to their actual origin.

The authority advised businesses to maintain consistent records of material purchases, import documents, production processes, material consumption, costs and factory capacity. Such records allow investigators to check where inputs came from and what work a Vietnamese factory performed.

Companies using imported materials from countries already subject to trade measures face particular pressure to document their production. Expanding into new destinations also requires checking local import rules, competitors and the risk of trade action, rather than relying on market size alone.

High logistics costs put pressure on export earnings

Standing Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Tuc told the Vietnam Logistics Forum 2026 in Gia Lai that logistics costs were about 16% to 17% of gross domestic product, compared with a global average of roughly 10% to 12%. Even the bottom of Vietnam's range exceeds the top of the global range by four percentage points.

Tuc identified fragmented connections between production areas, industrial parks, ports, rail stations and border gates. Goods spending long periods at collection and transfer points add warehousing and storage expenses, while transport and freight services remain insufficiently integrated.

Nguyen Xuan Thao, logistics director at Gemadept Corporation, described a target of bringing the cost ratio down to 12% to 15%. He said reaching that level would require changes in how transport and supply networks operate:

"This requires improvements in connectivity efficiency, supply chain optimization and national logistics capacity," he said.

Thomas Sim, president of the International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations, described a wider role for freight companies, covering transport, storage, customs, compliance, digital information and risk management. For exporters, obtaining those services together can simplify the movement of a shipment through several different stages.

Gia Lai offers a concrete example of the connection authorities want to strengthen: moving agricultural and other goods from the western highlands through the maritime gateway of Quy Nhon. The province has more than 300 exporting companies, reaches around 120 countries and territories, and generates annual exports exceeding $3.5 billion.

From $13.4 billion to more than $1 trillion

Vietnam's trade expansion has accelerated across successive milestones. Goods trade stood at $13.4 billion in 1995, the year it joined ASEAN, and reached $100 billion in 2007, when it joined the World Trade Organization.

The milestones show how quickly the scale of cross border commerce has changed:

• 1995: Goods trade reached $13.4 billion as Vietnam joined ASEAN.
• 2007: Trade reached $100 billion as Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization.
• 2011 to 2017: Trade passed $200 billion, $300 billion and $400 billion in 2011, 2015 and 2017.
• 2019 to 2022: Trade passed $500 billion in 2019, $600 billion in 2021 and $700 billion in 2022.
• 2025: Annual goods trade reached about $930 billion.
• January through October 2026: Trade exceeded $1 trillion for the first time.

Customs figures put total trade during 2016 through 2025 at $6.12 trillion, averaging $612 billion annually. Annual trade rose from $351.38 billion to $930 billion across that period, with average yearly growth of about 11%.

Vietnam now ranks among the world's 20 largest trading economies, standing 18th in exports and 20th in imports. The forecast for 2026 is more than $1.2 trillion in total goods trade, compared with the $930 billion recorded in 2025.

The draft strategy seeks more value from larger trade

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is drafting a goods import and export strategy through 2030, with a vision to 2045. It proposes average annual export growth of 15% to 16% and import growth of 12% to 13% during 2026 through 2030, alongside a sustainable surplus averaging 3% to 6% of export value.

The draft sets three export scenarios for 2030: $765 billion under the low scenario, $953.7 billion under the medium scenario and $1.0411 trillion under the high scenario. These are proposed planning scenarios, with the strategy still being drafted.

Domestic businesses would account for 28% to 30% of exports by 2030, rising to 38% to 40% by 2045. Compared with their current 18.8% share, the 2030 goal requires an increase of 9.2 to 11.2 percentage points.

Processed or refined goods would represent 89% to 90% of exports by 2030 and more than 92% by 2045. Products using high technology would account for about half of processed and manufactured exports by 2030, rising above 55% by 2045. Vietnam also aims to enter the world's top 10 for both exports and imports by 2045.

The immediate work is more practical: improve product quality, make supply chains transparent, meet environmental and origin requirements, and expand agricultural exports through formal customs channels. The ministry also plans to pursue plant and animal health agreements, invest in refrigerated transport and storage, and standardize growing areas and packing facilities for destination markets.

For factories, farmers and logistics businesses, the next stage of trade growth therefore depends on more than finding buyers. It requires producing goods that meet their rules, documenting each stage and delivering reliably at a competitive cost.

Key Points

• Vietnam's goods trade exceeded $1 trillion in January through October 2026, rising 32.3% from a year earlier.
• Preliminary figures put exports at $499.24 billion, imports at $511.31 billion and the cumulative deficit at $12.07 billion.
• October produced a second consecutive monthly surplus, with preliminary statistics putting it at $7.31 billion.
• The United States was the largest export market, while China was the largest source of imports.
• Foreign invested businesses generated 81.2% of exports; domestic businesses contributed 18.8%.
• Trade investigations, high logistics costs and documentation requirements are pressing concerns for exporters.
• The draft strategy through 2030 seeks faster export growth, a sustained surplus and a larger role for domestic companies.