Uzbekistan's Growing Population Puts Jobs, Schools and Migration Policy Under Pressure

More people, fewer births and a growing need for work

Uzbekistan's population reached 39.535 million on October 1, 2026, according to figures attributed to the National Statistics Committee, while more than 600,000 young people enter the country's labor market each year. By 2030, the annual number seeking work could approach one million.

The population is growing even as births fall. During January to September, 638,600 children were born, 26,000 fewer than in the same period of 2025. Births still exceeded deaths by 515,200. For families and public authorities, that means continued demand for classrooms, healthcare, housing and, eventually, jobs paying enough to support a household.

Migration already provides work on a large scale. Migration Agency figures cited in a Central Bank review put the number of Uzbek citizens employed abroad at about 1.4 million across nearly 40 countries. Russia accounts for 834,200, or about 60%, but employment in Europe and East Asia is expanding as destination countries seek workers.

Uzbekistan therefore faces two connected tasks: creating more opportunities at home and helping citizens find reliable employment abroad. Overseas earnings support families and reduce pressure on the domestic job market. Recruiting nurses, engineers and other trained workers for foreign employers also creates a difficult choice when those skills are needed inside Uzbekistan.

What the population figures show

The National Statistics Committee's first quarter demographic release recorded 38,382,700 permanent residents on April 1, 2026. That was an increase of 684,900 people, or 1.8%, from a year earlier. The October figure also gives annual growth of 1.8%, alongside a reported census adjustment adding approximately 810,600 residents to earlier estimates.

A reconciliation of the April population estimate, the October total and the census adjustment is still needed to explain precisely how the statistical revision and population growth fit together. A census can change the starting number used in population estimates by counting residents who were previously missed.

The committee's quarterly figures give a detailed picture of continuing natural growth, meaning births minus deaths. Uzbekistan recorded 191,100 births and 43,500 deaths in January to March, producing a natural increase of 147,600 people. Births were down by 7,000 from the same quarter of 2025, while deaths rose by 2,100.

The quarterly birth series also shows why comparisons need a defined period. First quarter births fell from 215,000 in 2022 to 203,600 in 2023, rose to 205,700 in 2024, then declined to 198,100 in 2025 and 191,100 in 2026. The latest quarterly total was about 11% below the 2022 figure.

How the census changes planning

Presidential Decree No. UP-173, dated September 19, 2025, ordered a combined population and agriculture census. The government's 2026 census page sets out a registration period from January 15 to February 28 and a questionnaire containing 71 questions, including 54 on population and 17 on agriculture.

The timetable connects several stages of Uzbekistan's demographic and employment planning:

• July 10, 2025: published details of Uzbekistan and Russia's recruitment talks described cooperation with the Work in Russia platform.
• September 19, 2025: Decree No. UP-173 ordered the population and agriculture census.
• January 15 to 31, 2026: residents could register online through OneID.
• February 4 to 28, 2026: members of the Mahalla Seven neighborhood teams were assigned to visit homes with tablets.
• April 1, 2026: the quarterly demographic release recorded 38.383 million permanent residents.
• October 1, 2026: the later population figure reached 39.535 million.

The government says census information is confidential and questionnaire responses are not shared with other agencies. For planning, a more accurate count helps identify how many people need services and where they live. That matters when population estimates feed into decisions about school capacity, clinics and local infrastructure.

Schools show where pressure is already visible

Tashkent faced a shortage of 141,000 school places in the 2025/2026 academic year. Falling births today offer little immediate relief for children already reaching school age or for teenagers preparing to enter employment.

The capital is also attracting residents from elsewhere in Uzbekistan. During January to March 2026, Tashkent city registered 27,698 arrivals from other parts of the country and 20,378 departures to other regions. That produced a net internal inflow of 7,320 people in just three months.

Uzbekistan's population is spread almost evenly between urban and rural areas. The April release counted 19.541 million urban residents, or 50.9% of the total, and 18.841 million rural residents, or 49.1%. Employment policy therefore has to reach beyond the capital and other large cities.

Authorities are developing industry, services and information technology to absorb new workers. The practical test is whether opportunities are available where young people live, whether their training matches the vacancies, and whether pay can cover family expenses. Building classrooms addresses one stage of that process; graduates then need a route into paid work.

Where Uzbek workers are finding employment

Russia remains Uzbekistan's largest foreign labor market, with 834,200 workers in the Migration Agency figures cited by the Central Bank. European countries together account for 258,000, followed by Kazakhstan with 84,400, Türkiye with 72,100 and South Korea with 46,400. Another 97,700 workers are in other countries.

Europe's total is equivalent to roughly 31% of the number working in Russia, using the two destination figures. Russia still dominates, but Uzbek workers now have a wider set of destinations than the traditional regional routes.

The Central Bank review describes a 29% decline in the number of migrants in Commonwealth of Independent States countries, alongside increases of 42% in Europe and 26% in East Asia. Women account for 398,900 workers abroad, or 28.6%, while young people account for 402,100, or 28.9%.

Uzbekistan has 48 agreements with 23 countries covering organized labor migration. During 2025 and 2026, it signed 18 agreements with 14 countries and developed cooperation with more than 325 major employers and recruitment companies across 36 countries. The Migration Agency says 124,500 citizens have entered jobs abroad described as highly paid since the beginning of 2026.

Why foreign employers want more workers

The Central Bank links expanding opportunities abroad to aging populations and shortages of workers in destination countries. Its review cites an estimate that Europe could face a shortage of between 7.5 million and 10.5 million workers by 2030, with demand spanning engineering, manufacturing, transport, agriculture, healthcare, technology and tourism.

Germany illustrates the scale of that demand. Estimates cited in the review suggest it needs to attract at least 400,000 skilled migrants annually to protect economic growth. The number of people requiring care could reach 5.7 million by 2030, creating a potential need for nearly 500,000 additional healthcare and care workers. The United Kingdom could need another 90,000 care workers.

Japan could face a shortage of between six million and seven million workers in healthcare, agriculture and construction. South Korea's projected shortfall ranges from 1.2 million to 1.5 million in sectors including shipbuilding, metalworking, electronics and manufacturing.

The Gulf offers another set of opportunities. The review cites potential additional demand for between 1.5 million and two million workers in Saudi Arabia and about one million in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi demand includes construction, technical work and healthcare, while the UAE's needs include hospitality, aviation and logistics.

These projections help explain why Uzbekistan is expanding recruitment partnerships. An employer's need for staff still has to be matched with an applicant's qualifications, language skills and ability to meet immigration requirements before a vacancy becomes an actual job.

Different destinations require different preparation

Germany's nursing route requires applicants to have their qualifications recognized and demonstrate German at B2 level. B2 generally means being able to understand complex discussions and communicate independently, including in a professional setting.

Japan's Specified Skilled Worker program requires applicants to pass professional and language examinations. Uzbekistan is preparing candidates through vocational and language courses, while foreign employers have requested more than 100,000 qualified specialists.

Russia offers a more accessible route for many workers with less formal training, particularly those who speak Russian. Uzbek citizens can enter without a visa, although employment generally requires a labor patent, a permit allowing eligible foreign citizens to work. Many vacancies require no specialist education.

The choice is therefore about more than the advertised wage. A worker must consider the cost and duration of training, examination requirements, recruitment arrangements and the employment terms offered. Uzbekistan's agreements seek to connect applicants with employers before departure, making preparation more closely tied to a particular job.

Russia and Uzbekistan seek more organized recruitment

Uzbekistan and Russia have discussed linking recruitment systems with Russia's Work in Russia platform. Details published on July 10, 2025, described plans for an official account for the Uzbek migration agency's representative office and a shared information tool explaining employment procedures.

The talks covered simpler recruitment procedures, the selection of reliable employers and joint checks on employer integrity. The Russian side indicated technical readiness to connect the systems, while Uzbekistan expressed interest in expanding legal employment channels.

September discussions also covered checks before departure, including medical examinations, document verification, biometric registration and Russian language tests. Under the proposed approach, migrants would know their employer and hiring conditions in advance. The two countries also agreed to develop information explaining the stages and requirements of employment.

For workers, the value of organized recruitment lies in concrete details: who will employ them, what work they will do and what conditions apply. For Russian businesses, it offers a way to recruit for known vacancies. A larger labor supply can also reduce pressure to raise wages in some sectors, while arrivals increase demand for inexpensive housing and, when families move, schools and clinics.

Remittances help families, while skills are needed at home

Uzbek labor migrants sent home $18.9 billion in 2025. These transfers, known as remittances, give households money earned outside the domestic economy and help support spending on everyday needs. Employment abroad also provides an outlet when local vacancies fall short of the number seeking work.

Uzbekistan must balance those benefits against the departure of trained staff. A nurse working abroad may send money to relatives, while a clinic at home still needs someone qualified to care for patients. The same tension applies to engineers and other specialists whose training takes time and resources.

The statistics describe different kinds of movement. The National Statistics Committee recorded 721 people arriving from abroad to live in Uzbekistan and 2,277 leaving to live abroad in the first quarter of 2026. Labor migration figures count citizens working overseas, many of whom retain their home and family connections in Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan's growing young workforce gives it a substantial pool of potential employees. Whether those workers choose Russia, Europe, East Asia or employment at home will depend on wages, qualifications and hiring conditions. The immediate task is to turn population growth and training into dependable jobs while keeping essential services staffed.

Key Points

• Uzbekistan's population reached a reported 39.535 million on October 1, 2026, alongside a census adjustment to earlier estimates.
• Births fell to 638,600 in January to September, but still exceeded deaths by 515,200.
• More than 600,000 young people enter the labor market annually, with the number potentially approaching one million by 2030.
• About 1.4 million Uzbek citizens work abroad, including 834,200 in Russia and 258,000 in Europe.
• Uzbekistan and Russia are discussing digital recruitment, employer checks and preparation before workers depart.
• Migrants sent home $18.9 billion in 2025, while Uzbekistan continues to need skilled workers for its own economy and public services.