Tokyo Drives Japan's First Rise in First Half Births in 11 Years

Tokyo's 1,864 extra births lift the national total

Japan recorded 320,458 births among Japanese children born in the country between January and June 2026, an increase of 1,379, or 0.4%, from the same period in 2025. The figures released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on November 4 marked the first increase in the national first half total since 2015.

Tokyo supplied more than the entire national gain. The capital recorded 41,745 births, up 1,864, or 4.7%, while the other 46 prefectures together recorded 485 fewer births. Without Tokyo's increase, the national figure would have fallen again.

The improvement follows a decade of annual record lows and comes as Japan continues to lose far more people through deaths than it gains through births. Annual births in 2026 are expected to remain close to the roughly 671,000 recorded in 2025, leaving the country near its lowest annual level since comparable records began in 1899.

An official responsible for children's policy at the Tokyo Metropolitan Government described the capital's contribution:

[The increase in] births in Tokyo is driving the national trend.

Tokyo's figures also show a change in pace. Births there rose by just 0.3% in the first half of 2025, followed by 1.7% in the second half and 4.7% in the first half of 2026. Each increase compares with the corresponding six months a year earlier.

Three periods of growth in the capital

Tokyo's Child Policy Coordination Office recorded 39,881 births in the first half of 2025, an increase of 105 from a year earlier. It was the first increase for that period in 10 years. The second half brought 45,183 births, up 754.

January through June 2026 extended that improvement to three consecutive periods of six months. Births increased in each of the four months from March through June, giving the capital several months of growth behind its latest total.

Tokyo accounted for about 13% of Japanese births recorded nationwide in the first half of 2026, calculated from 41,745 out of 320,458. Its gain of 1,864 births was larger than the national increase of 1,379 because declines elsewhere absorbed part of the capital's growth.

The recent sequence shows how the recovery developed:

• January to June 2025: Tokyo recorded 39,881 births, up 105, or 0.3%, from a year earlier.
• July to December 2025: Tokyo recorded 45,183 births, up 754, or 1.7%.
• March to June 2026: Tokyo recorded increases in births for four consecutive months.
• January to June 2026: Tokyo recorded 41,745 births, up 1,864, or 4.7%.
• November 4, 2026: The health ministry released the national figures, and Tokyo announced its latest results.

Growth reaches 24 prefectures, with Tokyo leading

Births increased in 24 of Japan's 47 prefectures and decreased in 23. Several urban areas, including Aichi and Fukuoka, joined Tokyo in recording gains. Tokyo had the highest percentage increase among the prefectures.

The combined result outside the capital was still negative. The other 46 prefectures recorded 278,713 births, compared with 279,198 a year earlier, a decline of 485, or about 0.2%. Gains in some places were outweighed by losses in others.

Japan's national increase therefore brings together two developments: growth spread across slightly more than half of its prefectures, and an especially strong contribution from its largest city. A positive national total can exist alongside continued declines across substantial parts of the country.

Tokyo's concentration of births also fits a wider population pattern. The 2025 census, detailed in the latest population count, found that Tokyo was the only prefecture to gain residents over the preceding five years. Births, deaths and migration all contribute to how many people live in a place.

Why two national birth totals appear

The health ministry's demographic statistics include different counts with different coverage. The 320,458 figure covers Japanese babies born in Japan. A broader preliminary series recorded 342,068 births in January through June 2026, up 2,788, or 0.8%, from 339,280 a year earlier.

The broader preliminary series includes foreign nationals born in Japan and Japanese nationals born overseas. Its total is therefore larger than the count focused on Japanese children born domestically. Further official figures for that broader preliminary release are expected later, with no publication date specified.

Both measures recorded the first increase for January through June in 11 years. The broader preliminary count nevertheless remained below 400,000 for the fifth consecutive year.

The size of the increase depends on which population is counted: 0.4% for Japanese births within Japan and 0.8% in the broader preliminary series. Keeping those definitions attached to the figures helps explain why both totals appear in discussions of the same six months.

More marriages may be feeding into births

Marriages increased in 2024 and 2025, providing one possible explanation for the recent improvement in births. Marriage patterns can affect birth totals in later months as couples begin or expand their families.

The broader preliminary statistics recorded 238,979 marriages in the first half of 2026, compared with 238,561 a year earlier. That was an increase of 418, or 0.2%, much smaller than the percentage rise in births in the same series.

Births and marriages need to be read across different periods because a wedding and the birth of a child usually occur at different times. The increases in marriages during 2024 and 2025 offer a possible connection to the births recorded in early 2026.

Divorces in the broader preliminary series fell to 90,177 from 93,755. Together, the marriage and divorce figures describe a modest shift in family formation, while the birth figures show a small national gain concentrated heavily in Tokyo.

What support does Tokyo provide?

Tokyo's child policy office pointed to measures including free childcare fees for first children aged zero to two and the 018 Support program, which provides ¥5,000 a month for children aged zero to 18.

The monthly payment amounts to ¥60,000 over a full year for an eligible child. Free childcare fees address another recurring expense for families using childcare, especially when parents return to work after a birth.

The metropolitan government places these measures within a broader policy covering relationships, marriage, childbirth, raising children and combining employment with family life. National measures have also expanded child allowances and financial support during parental leave.

Tokyo's recent growth gives those policies a concrete setting: more babies are arriving after a period of small gains. The figures released in November do not include a calculation of how much each program contributed. Marriage patterns, the number of potential parents and household circumstances also shape the number of births.

Family support also extends beyond money and childcare fees. In Hokkaido, nighttime crying cafes have offered exhausted mothers somewhere to rest while volunteers help with children. Those services address the daily strain of raising a baby, particularly during hours when ordinary support is unavailable.

Birth numbers rise while fertility remains low

Japan's total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.14 in 2025, down from 1.15 in 2024, according to the health ministry. The rate estimates how many children a woman would have over her lifetime if the birth patterns measured in that year continued.

A birth count and a fertility rate measure different things. The count tells readers how many babies were born during a particular period. The fertility rate relates births to women at different ages. Changes in the number of women at those ages, or in when they have children, can affect the two measures differently.

The 2025 fertility rate was well below the replacement level of 2.07 cited for Japan, the level associated with one generation replacing itself over time without migration. The gap was 0.93 children per woman.

The fertility figure covers the whole of 2025, while the latest increase in births covers only the first six months of 2026. A fertility rate for the full year of 2026 will provide a later measure of how childbearing patterns have changed.

Deaths still exceed births in every prefecture

Japan recorded 766,746 deaths in the first half of 2026 in the figures accompanying the domestic Japanese birth count, compared with 778,982 in the broader preliminary series. In the domestic figures, deaths exceeded births in every prefecture.

Using the domestic totals of 766,746 deaths and 320,458 births gives a gap of 446,288. In the broader preliminary series, 778,982 deaths exceeded 342,068 births by 436,914.

That gap is called natural population decrease: the number of deaths minus births. Migration is counted separately when calculating the total change in the resident population.

The broader preliminary series showed deaths falling 6.9%, from 836,818 in the first half of 2025. Its natural decrease narrowed from 497,538 to 436,914, a reduction of 60,624. Most of that improvement came from fewer deaths, with the increase of 2,788 births making a smaller contribution.

The longer population picture remains one of contraction and aging. Japan's 2025 census counted about 122.97 million residents, including foreign residents, down 2.5% from 2020. People aged 65 and older made up a record 29.4%, meaning nearly three in 10 residents were in that age group.

A small recovery after a much larger decline

Japan recorded approximately 2.09 million births in 1973. By 2025, births among Japanese residents had fallen to 671,236, the lowest annual total in the comparable record. Using those figures, the annual number was roughly 68% below the 1973 level.

Annual births fell below 800,000 in 2022 and below 700,000 in 2024. The first half improvement in 2026 follows those large losses, with the full year expected to remain close to the 2025 total rather than return to the levels of a few years earlier.

The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research projected in 2023 that annual births would reach the 670,000 range around 2040. The 2025 figure reached that range about 15 years earlier, showing how quickly the decline had advanced before the latest increase.

Authorities have described the period through the early 2030s as the last opportunity to address the birth crisis. For families, the practical issues include income, childcare costs, leave from work and help with everyday care. For Japan's population outlook, the next test is whether the growth recorded in Tokyo and other urban areas continues through the rest of 2026 and spreads more widely.

Key Points

• Japan recorded 320,458 births among Japanese children born domestically in January through June 2026, up 0.4%, the first increase for that period in 11 years.
• Tokyo recorded 41,745 births, up 1,864, or 4.7%. The other 46 prefectures together recorded 485 fewer births.
• The broader preliminary series counted 342,068 births, up 0.8%, and includes foreign nationals born in Japan and Japanese nationals born overseas.
• Births increased in 24 prefectures and decreased in 23, while deaths exceeded births in every prefecture.
• Japan's fertility rate fell to 1.14 in 2025, and annual births in 2026 are expected to remain close to the roughly 671,000 recorded last year.