Pakistan Worker Departures Fall a Third as Gulf Migration Faces War and AI Pressures

A sharp fall behind the remittance warning

Pakistan recorded 50,506 workers leaving for overseas jobs in March 2026, down from 75,663 in January, according to a Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme factsheet based on government data. The decline of 33.2% gives a concrete measure of the disruption behind a warning delivered in Lahore: strong remittance inflows may conceal a weakening market for the next generation of migrant workers.

The May publication, written by Nasra Shah, the programme's scientific director and a professor at the Lahore School of Economics, placed the decline after the US and Israeli attack on Iran. Its figures show departures falling across occupations and destinations, with particularly steep reductions in several Gulf states.

By November, researchers gathered at the Lahore School of Economics were discussing a wider threat. Conflict, tighter immigration rules and artificial intelligence were changing both the number of workers countries wanted and the skills they required.

Dr Nasir Iqbal, an economist and policy researcher at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, warned that AI and changing Gulf labour policies could affect seven out of ten jobs traditionally held by migrants. His assessment concerned potential changes to employment opportunities; the measured January to March decline concerned workers leaving Pakistan.

The warning came at the fourth international conference organised by the Centre on International Migration, Remittances and Diaspora (CIMRAD), under the theme Future Drivers of International Migration from Asia. The two days of discussions connected the immediate disruption to deeper changes in recruitment, migration routes and household dependence on earnings from abroad.

How exposed is Pakistan to the Gulf?

Pakistan's dependence on Gulf employment is visible in the destination figures. The GLMM programme's May 2026 factsheet, drawing on Pakistan Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment datasets, recorded 762,499 worker departures in 2025. Saudi Arabia received 70%, other Gulf Cooperation Council countries received 23%, and destinations outside the GCC accounted for 7%.

Together, the Gulf destinations therefore accounted for 93% of recorded departures. Saudi Arabia alone received seven out of every ten workers. A change in hiring across that region reaches directly into Pakistan's main overseas employment market.

Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait together recorded an almost 60% fall in incoming Pakistani workers between January and March 2026. Departures to destinations outside the GCC fell by 15%, showing that the contraction was sharper in those three Gulf markets.

The main developments unfolded across the year:

• In 2025, Pakistan recorded 762,499 workers leaving for overseas employment, with 93% heading to GCC countries.
• In January 2026, recorded departures stood at 75,663.
• In March, the month after the US and Israeli attack on Iran, departures fell to 50,506.
• In May, the GLMM factsheet warned of consequences for family incomes, remittances, unemployment and recruitment costs.
• On November 3 and 4, the Lahore conference examined how conflict, technology and migration policies could reshape future employment.

Skilled workers also felt the immediate shock

General labourers, described in the factsheet as about half of Pakistani migrant workers, saw departures fall from about 46,000 to 32,000 between January and March. Departures among drivers and construction workers declined by 35%.

Skilled and highly skilled workers experienced a decline of about 40%, compared with about 30% among unskilled workers. The immediate disruption therefore reached workers across the skills ladder, including people whose qualifications might otherwise give them access to a wider range of jobs.

Françoise De Bel-Air, a senior fellow at the GLMM programme, described a longer trend at the conference: opportunities for skilled professionals were expanding across North America, Europe and the Gulf, while traditional routes for workers with low or intermediate skills were becoming more restricted.

The two developments can occur together. A destination may increasingly favour particular qualifications while hiring fewer people during a conflict. For workers, having a sought skill and finding an employer ready to recruit are two separate requirements.

What could change in Gulf recruitment?

Iqbal said Gulf states were increasingly selecting workers according to specific skills, occupations and migration pathways. Countries sending workers were also becoming active partners in screening candidates and preparing them for employment abroad.

Artificial intelligence adds another source of change because it can alter the tasks employers need people to perform. Iqbal linked its rapid adoption with changing labour policies and geopolitical conflict in his warning that seven out of ten traditional migrant jobs could be affected. No timetable or detailed occupational breakdown accompanied that estimate.

For someone planning to migrate, a more selective system makes the match between training and a particular vacancy more important. A qualification, work experience and permission to use a migration route may all matter in securing employment.

Froilan Malit, an Asia and Middle East labour migration specialist, described the Asia to Gulf corridor as among the most resilient labour migration systems in the Global South. He called for greater attention to systems that recognise skills and for their inclusion in foreign policy arrangements governing labour migration between developing countries.

Skill recognition means that a destination country accepts a worker's training or qualification. Malit's proposal would make that acceptance part of cooperation between governments, connecting worker preparation at home more closely with employment requirements abroad.

Why remittances can hide a weakening jobs market

Remittances are money migrants send home. They help families pay everyday expenses and bring foreign currency into the country. Worker departures measure something different: the flow of people leaving to take employment overseas.

People already employed abroad can continue sending money while fewer new workers obtain jobs. That explains the concern raised in Lahore that strong current inflows may coexist with a decline in future employment opportunities.

Shah, the GLMM scientific director and author of the May factsheet, warned about the household consequences if the decline in departures continued:

Families will lose their survival income and their standard of living will decline; the country will lose much-needed foreign exchange if remittances drop; and unemployment may increase, placing additional burdens on the labor market.

The factsheet also warned that recruitment costs could rise if demand for workers in the Gulf shrank while the number seeking overseas jobs stayed unchanged. Families could then face both fewer openings and a greater expense in trying to secure one.

Europe offers a more restrictive alternative

Europe and other regions could receive more interest from Pakistani workers if Gulf opportunities contract, the factsheet said. It identified the possibility of movement through both legal and irregular channels.

Marco Mogiani, a researcher at the International Centre for Migration Policy Development, told the conference that stricter European Union border controls, biometric surveillance and return measures had already influenced migration patterns from Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Biometric systems use identifying features such as fingerprints or facial images to check identity. Return measures concern sending people back when they lack permission to remain. Together with border controls, these policies affect the routes people attempt and their chances of staying.

The conference also examined how measures against migrant smuggling and national migration policies affected departures, routes and migrant casualties. A shift away from the Gulf would therefore bring workers into another restrictive policy environment, rather than a straightforward replacement market.

Communities and gender shape migration choices

Dr Fareeha Zafar of the Lahore School of Economics identified political instability, economic insecurity, unemployment and limited access to quality education as major drivers of irregular migration from Asia. She also highlighted the greater risks women face along irregular transit routes, including human trafficking.

Irregular migration involves movement or residence outside the relevant legal requirements. Trafficking involves exploitation. Zafar's warning connected the pressure to leave with the danger that people seeking a livelihood may encounter during their journey.

Dr Shahida Aman, chairperson of the Department of Political Science at the University of Peshawar, urged researchers to examine social relationships and the influence of communities on migration ambitions and decisions.

Dr Gennaro Errichiello, an assistant professor at Habib University, examined social networks in the Pakistan to United Arab Emirates corridor. His presentation considered how those networks help migrants navigate employment opportunities and restrictions connected with temporary residence.

These discussions placed family and community connections alongside government rules and employer demand. People make migration decisions through relationships as well as formal recruitment systems, while their ability to remain abroad may depend on the terms of a temporary residence arrangement.

Nepal and the Philippines show the wider stakes

Nepal's experience illustrated how deeply overseas earnings can matter to a national economy. Dr Richa Shivakoti told the conference that remittances contributed about 33% of Nepal's gross domestic product, a measure of the value of goods and services produced in the country.

That share is roughly one third. Shivakoti identified unemployment, political and economic uncertainty, disasters associated with climate conditions and a growing culture of migration among young people as factors encouraging departures.

Dr Maruja M.B. Asis said migration from the Philippines was supported by limited decent employment at home and steady overseas demand. She also discussed the growing role of women and the widening range of migration patterns.

Population ageing, falling fertility and digitalisation were among the emerging forces Asis identified. Those changes affect both the people available to work and the kinds of work destinations need.

Dr G.M. Arif described Pakistan as experiencing continuity and change at the same time: traditional labour migration to GCC countries was continuing alongside rising skilled migration to Western countries. Economic instability and government policies promoting overseas employment remained drivers, while mismatches between worker skills and available jobs, together with geopolitical conflict, presented challenges.

Jobs at home and cooperation abroad

Lahore School of Economics Rector Dr Shahid Amjad Chaudhry opened the conference by calling for closer cooperation between countries of origin and destination to make migration humane, orderly and sustainable. He also urged Pakistan to diversify its economy and expand services that generate greater value.

Education, healthcare and information technology were the sectors he identified for improving employment and productivity at home. His proposals addressed the domestic side of the same pressure described by migration researchers: people continue seeking work abroad when local opportunities are limited.

Dr Naved Hamid called for an assessment of future global skills requirements alongside the development priorities of sending and receiving countries. He said demographic change and limited domestic opportunities were likely to keep migration pressure high in Pakistan and Nepal.

Dr Anna Triandafyllidou of Toronto Metropolitan University, who holds the Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration and Integration, argued for approaches that account for differences in people's choices, opportunities and constraints. Her keynote described migration decisions as increasingly complex and shaped by social, economic, political and technological change.

The conference concluded with a session on the potential effect of the US, Iran and Israel conflict on future migration from Asia, chaired by Dr Rashid Amjad. Dr Nasra M. Shah delivered the vote of thanks. Across the discussions, the practical priorities were connected: prepare workers for specific vacancies, improve recognition of their skills, protect people taking risky routes and expand employment at home.

Key Points

• Pakistan's recorded worker departures fell 33.2%, from 75,663 in January 2026 to 50,506 in March.
• GCC countries received 93% of Pakistan's 762,499 recorded worker departures in 2025.
• Departures to Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait together fell almost 60% between January and March.
• Skilled and highly skilled departures fell about 40%, compared with about 30% for unskilled workers.
• Dr Nasir Iqbal warned that AI and Gulf policy changes could affect seven out of ten jobs traditionally held by migrants.
• Conference speakers called for better worker preparation, recognition of skills, international cooperation and more employment opportunities at home.