Visayas Faces 177 MW Power Deficit Ahead of Undas as Major Plants Stay Offline

Evening Power Shortfall Threatens Holiday Preparations

The Visayas grid faces a projected electricity shortage of 177 megawatts on Friday, October 30, 2026, with major coal plants unavailable and imports from Mindanao constrained ahead of the All Saints' Day holiday. The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) scheduled a Red Alert from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., when available supply would be insufficient to cover demand and the grid's regulating requirements.

NGCP put available capacity at 2,359 megawatts (MW), against an expected peak demand of 2,536 MW. Yellow Alerts were scheduled from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. and again from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m., extending the period of tight electricity supply across six hours.

The projected shortage amounts to about 7% of peak demand, calculated from NGCP's figures. For households and businesses preparing for Undas, the holiday when Filipinos visit cemeteries and remember deceased relatives, the immediate concern is possible power interruptions during the late afternoon and evening.

The alerts follow similar warnings on Thursday, October 29. Three major generating units remain unavailable: Therma Visayas Inc. Units 1 and 2 and KEPCO SPC Power Corp. Unit 1. Electricity from neighboring Mindanao offers limited relief because two generating units there are also unavailable.

What Red and Yellow Alerts Mean

A Red Alert means available electricity cannot meet consumer demand and the transmission grid's regulating requirement. Regulation helps keep electricity supply and consumption balanced as both change throughout the day. When that balance becomes too tight, operators may need to interrupt supply to some areas to protect the wider network.

A Yellow Alert means the operating margin is too small to meet the grid's contingency requirement. Put simply, the system lacks enough spare power to comfortably absorb an unexpected problem, such as another large generator suddenly stopping.

NGCP's alert schedule identifies periods of risk. Local interruption schedules depend on operating conditions and any instructions to reduce demand. Consumers were urged to monitor official NGCP advisories and reduce electricity use during peak hours.

No confirmed locality by locality interruption schedule or restoration date for the three major unavailable Visayas units was given in the October 30 update.

Two Days of Alerts Before Undas

NGCP's advisory issued at 8 a.m. on Thursday, October 29, listed 2,408 MW of available capacity against projected demand of 2,555 MW. That left a gap of 147 MW, with a Red Alert scheduled for 5 p.m. to 6 p.m.

Friday's projected gap widened to 177 MW. Available capacity fell by 49 MW from Thursday, while expected peak demand fell by only 19 MW. The resulting shortage was 30 MW larger, and the scheduled Red Alert lasted two hours instead of one.

The sequence of warnings and regulatory action stretches back several months:

• Since May 2026: The Visayas grid has experienced Red and Yellow Alerts as generating capacity became unavailable.
• September 2026: The Energy Regulatory Commission ordered the secondary price cap applied retroactively to August electricity trading in the Visayas and Mindanao, and thereafter.
• October 12, 2026: At the Cebu Energy Summit, NGCP said Cebu accounted for 42% of the Visayas allocation for manual load dropping.
• October 29, 2026: Yellow Alerts were scheduled for 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. to 9 p.m., with a Red Alert between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m.
• October 30, 2026: Yellow Alerts were scheduled for 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. to 9 p.m., with a Red Alert between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m.

Outages Extend Beyond the Largest Plants

NGCP's October 30 figures showed 782.2 MW unavailable, with 20 plants operating below their normal capacity. Eight plants entered forced outages during October. Other outages had begun in September, August, June and May, while some units had been unavailable since earlier years, including 2021.

A forced outage is an unexpected shutdown. A plant operating at reduced, or derated, capacity can still supply electricity, but less than it normally could. Both conditions reduce the amount of power available when demand rises.

Thursday's advisory listed 25 plants on forced outage and 18 operating at reduced capacity, with 796 MW unavailable. Its more detailed breakdown included 10 plants on forced outage since October and others dating to 2025, 2024, 2023 and 2021. Friday's update recorded eight October outages and 20 plants at reduced capacity.

The repeated absence of Therma Visayas Units 1 and 2 and KEPCO SPC Unit 1 leaves the grid without several large sources of generation at once. Mindanao's ability to export electricity is also limited by planned outages at GNPower Kauswagan Unit 4 and Therma South Inc. Unit 2.

Earlier Shutdowns Show Months of Pressure

The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) identified lengthy shutdowns at several coal units during the months before the latest alerts. Its September assessment listed Therma Visayas Unit 1, rated at 150 MW, as offline for 125 days after a May 3 shutdown, with a September 15 return then expected.

Therma Visayas Unit 2, also rated at 150 MW, had been offline from March 24 to August 31 before another shutdown on September 9. The assessment gave no indicative return date for that later outage. Both Therma Visayas units remained on NGCP's unavailable list for the October alerts.

Panay Energy Development Corp. Unit 3, another unit rated at 150 MW, shut down on August 29. Its expected return moved from October 3 to the end of October. Cebu Energy Development Corp. Unit 1, rated at 82 MW, had an earlier outage lasting 42 days from July 24 to September 3.

ICSC, an organization working on climate and energy policy, attributed the recurring alerts to extended losses of large coal units:

"Unplanned and extended outages from coal power plants are the primary driver of these frequent grid alerts, particularly during peak demand hours when the system has the least room to absorb the loss of a large generating unit," the ICSC said.

Why the Pressure Varies Across Islands

The Department of Energy's list of existing power plants dated July 31, 2026, put dependable coal capacity in the Visayas at about 1,267 MW. Dependable capacity means the output a plant can reliably provide under normal operating conditions. The region's five island subgrids have very different mixes of generation.

Cebu's mix was listed as 82.03% coal, 12.94% diesel, 4.93% solar and 0.1% hydroelectric power. Panay also depends heavily on coal, which accounts for about two thirds of its mix. Three Panay Energy Development Corp. units provide a combined 317.4 MW of dependable capacity, while Palm Concepcion Power Corp.'s coal plant provides up to 135 MW.

Negros and Leyte-Samar draw more heavily on renewable sources. Negros has about 433.3 MW of dependable solar capacity, while geothermal plants in Leyte-Samar provide 634 MW. Solar output depends on daylight, making other available generation, stored electricity and transfers between islands especially relevant during an evening shortage.

Bohol relies primarily on diesel generation. Its listed dependable capacity includes 60 MW from Mapalad Power Corp.'s Bohol In-Island Diesel Power Plant, along with 16 MW from Salcon Power Corp.'s Tagbilaran plant and 29 MW from its power barge.

NGCP's October 12 presentation placed Cebu's share of the Visayas manual load dropping allocation at 42%. Manual load dropping means deliberately disconnecting selected electricity loads to keep the grid balanced during a shortage. That allocation makes Cebu a major focus of preparations for interruptions.

Reserve Procurement and Generator Accountability

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin has attributed the supply problem partly to inadequate planning and NGCP's failure to secure procurement agreements for 250 MW of ancillary services. Ancillary services provide reserves and other support needed to keep the electricity system stable.

NGCP's September situation report recorded more than 1,500 MW unavailable because of forced outages and reduced operating capacity, despite imports from Luzon. That earlier figure shows how much generation had been missing during another period of strain.

Garin said reserves are intended to help cover supply gaps and support stable operation, reducing the pressure on generating plants. Restoring unavailable generators and securing reserve services address different parts of the problem: one increases electricity production, while the other helps the grid respond when conditions change.

The Energy Regulatory Commission said earlier in October that it would investigate generation companies over disruptions in the Visayas and Mindanao. In Negros Occidental, the Alliance of Concerned Consumers in Electricity and Social Services called for public access to plant operating status and forced outage histories, along with administrative sanctions against generators found at fault.

The consumer group also urged NGCP to ensure adequate reserves and accelerate critical transmission projects. For electricity users, more detailed outage records would make it easier to track which facilities remain unavailable and how long shutdowns last.

Price Controls Address Another Cost of Scarcity

Electricity shortages have also increased pressure on prices. Spot market prices in the Visayas and Mindanao reached record levels after numerous generating plants shut down. The spot market is where electricity is traded to help match supply with demand beyond existing supply arrangements.

In September, the Energy Regulatory Commission ordered retroactive implementation of the secondary price cap for August trading in both regions and thereafter. The mechanism is triggered when the rolling average price across the Philippine grid exceeds a specified threshold.

A rolling average is recalculated as new trading periods enter the calculation and older ones drop out. Once the trigger is reached, the cap is calculated and applied separately for each region using that grid's own rolling average price.

The commission's intervention addresses unusually high trading prices while its announced investigation examines generator disruptions. Consumers face both concerns at once: whether electricity will remain available and how expensive purchases become when supply is scarce.

Storage and Diesel Capacity Are the Next Targets

Garin told a congressional hearing that insufficient baseload generation could leave the Visayas vulnerable through 2028, particularly during dry months and an anticipated El Niño. Baseload generation supplies electricity steadily over long periods. The Department of Energy expects new plants intended for that role between 2028 and 2030.

The department is pursuing nearer measures, including battery storage and power barges. It targets 253 MW of battery storage by the end of 2026 and expects another 293 MW from plants burning diesel in the first quarter of 2027.

Batteries store electricity generated earlier and discharge it when needed. Their usefulness depends on both their power output and how long they can sustain it. The 253 MW target gives the planned output rating; the accompanying figures did not specify the storage duration.

ICSC energy transition adviser Alberto Dalusung III advocated a different emphasis from adding more baseload plants. In an October 5 interview, he called for generation closer to consumers and a grid able to respond more flexibly to changing demand:

"We don't actually need more base load plants…The long-term solution is to have a decentralized, distributed and flexible grid," Dalusung said.

Dalusung proposed locating more batteries where they can discharge during demand peaks and developing local generation near the places consuming electricity. The immediate milestones are the department's storage target at the end of 2026 and expected diesel capacity in early 2027. Until more capacity becomes available, the return of existing plants and the availability of imports remain central to managing the evening shortage.

Key Points

• NGCP projected a 177 MW Visayas supply deficit on October 30, with 2,359 MW available against demand of 2,536 MW.
• The Red Alert was scheduled for 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., between Yellow Alert periods covering 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. to 9 p.m.
• Three major Visayas coal units remained unavailable, while outages in Mindanao limited imports.
• Friday's update listed 782.2 MW unavailable and 20 plants operating at reduced capacity.
• The energy regulator announced investigations into generator disruptions and ordered a secondary price cap applied to regional spot trading.
• The Department of Energy targets 253 MW of battery storage by the end of 2026 and expects 293 MW of diesel generation in the first quarter of 2027.