Uzbekneftegaz Forecasts 9.5% Gas Output Drop as Depleted Fields Strain Supply

Depleted Fields Put Annual Gas Target Out of Reach

Uzbekneftegaz expects to produce 22.8 billion cubic meters of gas in 2026, down from 25.2 billion in 2025, as heavily depleted fields lose output faster than repairs and new wells can replace it. The forecast is also 2.6 billion cubic meters below the minimum production target President Shavkat Mirziyoyev set for the company in January.

Nodir Mukhiddinov, the company's chief geologist, outlined the problem at an October 27 press conference: depletion exceeds 80% at some major fields, and measures to support production have left a daily shortfall of about 5 million cubic meters. Uzbekneftegaz and its subsidiaries produced about 17 billion cubic meters in January through September.

The pressure extends beyond the company. Uzbekistan's National Statistics Committee put national gas production at 27 billion cubic meters for the first nine months of 2026, down 16.4% from 32.3 billion a year earlier. Meanwhile, the country's spending on gas imports rose 50% to $1.4 billion, adding a growing trade bill to the production challenge.

Why Existing Wells Are Producing Less

Uzbekneftegaz began the year producing about 65 million cubic meters a day. The underlying decline at operating fields has since reached 12.6 million cubic meters a day. Repairs and new wells have replaced some of that lost output, leaving approximately 5 million cubic meters a day still to recover.

A gas field depends partly on underground pressure to move gas toward a well and up to the surface. As gas is extracted, that pressure falls. A field can still contain gas while becoming harder and more expensive to operate because each well delivers less than before.

Mukhiddinov said maintaining production requires geological and technical work, alongside well repairs. The scale of the underlying decline explains why adding wells does not automatically produce growth: new output must first replace the gas that older wells have stopped delivering.

Repairs May Restore Daily Output, Not the Annual Total

Uzbekneftegaz has carried out major and routine repairs on 79 wells since the start of 2026. Its next measures include more repairs, new wells, compressor stations at wellheads and the restoration of some wells previously taken out of service.

Compressors help gas keep flowing as reservoir pressure drops. The company also plans to use sidetracks, which are new branches drilled from existing wells to reach another part of a reservoir. Both approaches can recover production from developed fields while exploration continues elsewhere.

The company aims to restore daily production to its level at the beginning of the year by the end of 2026. Even achieving that goal would leave annual output below the 2025 total. Gas that was not produced during earlier months remains missing from the yearly sum, even if the daily rate later recovers.

The forecast decline of 2.4 billion cubic meters, or 9.5%, therefore reflects both the continuing weakness of mature fields and the time needed to bring replacement production into operation.

Production Has Fallen Far Below Earlier Levels

Uzbekneftegaz produced 32.2 billion cubic meters in 2022. Its current forecast of 22.8 billion for 2026 would mean a loss of 9.4 billion cubic meters, more than 29%, over four years. That comparison shows a sustained reduction in the company's production base.

January's presidential instruction called for at least 25.4 billion cubic meters in 2026 and an increase in daily output from 66 million to 70 million cubic meters. The current annual forecast is 10.2% below that minimum target.

Key dates show how the production challenge and the proposed response have developed:

• 2022: Uzbekneftegaz produced 32.2 billion cubic meters of gas.
• 2025: Company production totaled 25.2 billion cubic meters.
• January 2026: Mirziyoyev set a minimum annual target of 25.4 billion cubic meters.
• March 2026: Uzbekneftegaz announced plans to attract $1.2 billion for exploration and production on the Ustyurt plateau.
• October 27, 2026: Mukhiddinov described field depletion and efforts to recover lost daily output.
• End of 2026: The company aims to restore daily production to its level at the start of the year.

National Output Faces a Steeper Fall

Uzbekistan's national figures include producers beyond Uzbekneftegaz. The country's 27 billion cubic meters of gas in January through September represented a reduction of 5.3 billion cubic meters from the same period of 2025. Uzbekneftegaz and its subsidiaries supplied about 63% of that national total, based on their reported production of about 17 billion cubic meters.

Official annual statistics show national production falling from 53.8 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 51.7 billion in 2022 and 46.7 billion in 2023. Output reached a revised 41.3 billion in 2024 before rising to 42.3 billion in 2025. The latest nine months of figures put production back on a downward course.

The revised Uzbekistan 2030 Strategy sets national targets of 40.2 billion cubic meters in 2026, 42.9 billion in 2027 and 48.5 billion by 2030. Reaching the 2026 target would require 13.2 billion cubic meters in the final three months, almost 49% of the volume produced during the preceding nine months.

That calculation shows the scale of the required increase. The national target calls for substantially stronger production in the final quarter while the country's largest gas producer is still working to restore lost daily output.

Ustyurt Offers Potential at Greater Depth

Uzbekneftegaz identifies the Ustyurt region as its strongest prospect for finding new reserves. In March, the company announced plans to attract $1.2 billion for exploration and production on the plateau, placing it at the center of efforts to rebuild the resource base.

Exploration is becoming more demanding. Wells previously drilled to depths of 3,000 to 3,500 meters are now extending beyond 5,000 meters. At those depths, pressure can reach 1,000 atmospheres and temperatures can reach 200 degrees Celsius.

Such conditions require specialized drilling equipment and materials capable of handling extreme heat and pressure. Mukhiddinov said only a limited number of companies worldwide supply the necessary equipment. Finding gas deeper underground therefore brings a larger technical task as well as a greater expense.

Uzbekneftegaz is working with BGP, part of China's CNPC, and is holding talks with XIBU about drilling wells. It has also reached agreements with Shandong Molong and Hengyang Valin for pipes suitable for drilling to depths of up to 7,000 meters. Those arrangements address specific equipment needs as the company moves toward deeper targets.

New Reserves Need Time to Become Gas Supply

Uzbekneftegaz received licenses for 42 new investment blocks in 2026 and plans to increase seismic exploration nearly fivefold, to 11,900 square kilometers. Seismic surveys use sound waves to help map underground rock formations and identify places where drilling may find gas.

Exploration began in 17 new areas during the first nine months, with 22 planned by the end of the year. The company reported gas reserve growth of about 12.5 billion cubic meters over that period, against an annual target of 25 billion. By the end of September, it had reached half that target.

Reserves describe gas assessed as recoverable underground. Production measures gas actually brought to the surface during a given period. Turning newly identified reserves into supply requires drilling wells, confirming how much gas they can deliver and building the infrastructure needed to collect and transport it.

No schedule was given for when the newly reported reserves would begin contributing to production. That timing matters because mature fields are losing output now, while new discoveries must pass through several stages before they can replace it.

Import Spending Rises as Gas Exports Shrink

Uzbekistan's gas imports reached $1.4 billion by October 1, an increase of 50% from a year earlier. Gas export revenue moved in the opposite direction, falling 34.5% to $357.9 million.

The country consequently spent about $1.04 billion more on imported gas than it earned from gas exports during the period. Import spending was roughly 3.9 times export revenue. These figures measure money paid and received; the physical quantities of gas traded were not given.

The shift puts a larger external purchasing bill alongside falling domestic production. Gas serves households, electricity generation and industrial users, so the balance between domestic output and imports affects how much supply is available to distribute across the economy.

Uzbekistan also imported $1.5 billion of oil and petroleum products, up 6%, including $454 million of gasoline and $189.1 million of diesel. Exports of oil and petroleum products rose 44.4% to $672.5 million. The petroleum figures show trade expanding even as the country's own extraction of oil edged lower.

Fuel Production and Extraction Move in Different Directions

Uzbekistan's gas condensate output fell 14.1% in January through September, from 849,200 to 729,200 tonnes, according to the National Statistics Committee. Gas condensate is a liquid hydrocarbon recovered from some gas production streams and can be used in refining.

Oil production declined 1.6%, from 490,100 to 482,200 tonnes. Coal output fell 6.9% to 5.4 million tonnes. The reductions show that the weakness in fuel extraction extended beyond natural gas during the first nine months.

Refineries, however, increased production of finished fuels. Automotive gasoline output rose 2.6%, from 890,100 to 913,200 tonnes, while diesel production increased 11.8%, from 876,100 to 979,000 tonnes. Extraction and refining measure different activities: one brings raw resources out of the ground, while the other processes feedstock into usable products.

Uzbekistan's total industrial output reached 1,085.7 trillion soums, up 8.1%. Gas production was therefore shrinking during a period of broader industrial growth. For Uzbekneftegaz, the immediate task is to recover daily output by December while developing reserves that can support production in later years. The 2027 national target of 42.9 billion cubic meters will require an increase from the level targeted for 2026.

Key Points

• Uzbekneftegaz forecasts 22.8 billion cubic meters of gas in 2026, down 9.5% from 2025 and 10.2% below its presidential target.
• Depletion exceeds 80% at some major fields, and about 5 million cubic meters of lost daily output remain unrecovered.
• National gas production fell 16.4% to 27 billion cubic meters in January through September.
• Ustyurt exploration is moving beyond 5,000 meters, requiring specialized equipment for extreme pressure and heat.
• The company reported reserve growth of 12.5 billion cubic meters, but gave no schedule for bringing those reserves into production.
• Gas import spending rose 50% to $1.4 billion, while gas export revenue fell 34.5% to $357.9 million.