Nanya Gets NT$570 Price Target as DRAM Price Surge Drives Record Profit

Higher memory prices power a sharp earnings jump

Nanya Technology posted third quarter revenue of NT$133.649 billion and net profit of NT$87.627 billion in 2026, as a steep rise in memory prices outweighed a decline in shipments. The Taiwanese DRAM manufacturer, listed under stock code 2408, earned NT$25.40 per share during the quarter, with a gross margin of 85.7%.

A domestic institutional investment forecast maintained a buy rating and set a target price of NT$570, projecting further price increases in the fourth quarter and stronger demand from servers running artificial intelligence applications. The bullish case rests on a shortage of conventional memory as major manufacturers direct more production toward advanced products.

Nanya's revenue rose 61.9% from the previous quarter and 611.7% from a year earlier. Net profit increased 74.6% from the preceding quarter. Across the first nine months, revenue reached NT$265.284 billion, net profit totaled NT$163.877 billion and earnings per share reached NT$49.28.

The original market account put the shares at NT$477, up NT$36, or 8.16%; another October 27 market account listed NT$440.50 and explicitly marked the closing price as awaiting confirmation. An exchange confirmed closing price and the institution behind the NT$570 target were not identified.

The company's official financial documents linked below cover the third quarter of 2025, while the much larger earnings figures concern 2026. Keeping those dates separate shows the scale of the reported change: Nanya moved from an early recovery in 2025 to exceptionally high profitability a year later.

What Nanya's official results show

Nanya's 2025 earnings release, published on October 13, 2025, recorded revenue of NT$18.779 billion for the quarter ended September 30. Revenue rose 78.4% from the previous quarter, while net profit reached NT$1.563 billion and earnings per share were NT$0.50. The figures were unaudited.

The company's 2025 investor presentation, presented by president and spokesman Pei-Ing Lee, put annual revenue growth at 130.9%. Gross margin was 18.5%, compared with a negative 20.6% in the second quarter, and operating profit reached NT$1.119 billion.

The later 2026 revenue figure of NT$133.649 billion is about 7.12 times the official NT$18.779 billion recorded a year earlier, matching the reported annual increase of 611.7%. Gross margin rose from 18.5% to 85.7%, a gain of 67.2 percentage points.

Gross margin measures the share of sales left after manufacturing costs. At 85.7%, Nanya retained about NT$85.70 from each NT$100 of revenue before research, administration, other expenses and taxes. Its reported 2026 operating margin was 80%, and its net margin was 65.6%.

Prices, rather than shipments, drove the latest growth

Nanya's third quarter average selling price in 2026 increased by more than 60% from the previous quarter, while the volume of memory shipped fell by a percentage in the middle single digits. Some existing supply contracts expired and were replaced with contracts carrying higher prices.

Memory shipments are commonly measured in bits, the basic units of digital information. Measuring bits rather than the number of chips helps account for products with different storage capacities. A manufacturer can therefore ship fewer chips while supplying more memory, or record higher revenue even when total bit shipments fall.

Nanya's 2025 recovery had a broader base. Its official presentation said average selling prices increased by a percentage in the forties from the previous quarter, while bit shipments rose by a percentage in the middle twenties. Both price and volume supported that earlier revenue increase.

The 2026 pattern puts greater weight on the next round of contract negotiations. September revenue reached NT$45.091 billion, up 0.9% from August and 576.6% from a year earlier. It was the company's 11th consecutive monthly revenue record, although the monthly increase was small.

Fourth quarter forecasts call for another price rise

The domestic institutional forecast projects a further 15% to 20% quarterly increase in Nanya's average selling price during the fourth quarter of 2026. It estimates revenue of NT$151.246 billion, up 13.2%, and earnings per share of NT$28.42, an increase of about 11.9% from the third quarter.

Gross margin is projected to reach 86.1%, a rise of 0.4 percentage points. The forecast assumes higher prices can keep revenue growing despite another decline in shipment volume.

A broader industry estimate puts the fourth quarter increase in conventional DRAM contract prices at 10% to 15%. Nanya's projected 15% to 20% rise concerns its own product mix and contracts. The company declined to comment on market talk that some of its contract price increases could reach 20%.

President Pei-Ing Lee said at the October 12, 2026 investor conference that DRAM remained severely undersupplied and that fourth quarter selling prices were expected to rise further. The investment forecast puts annual earnings at roughly NT$75 per share, with one detailed estimate of NT$75.93.

AI creates two routes to stronger demand

Nanya says applications connected to AI infrastructure already account for more than 20% of revenue. That category includes servers, networking, storage and system management equipment, giving the company several routes into spending on computing infrastructure.

DRAM provides temporary working space for electronic devices. AI servers need large amounts of memory to keep data moving between processors, while the networks and storage systems supporting those servers also use memory.

Nanya is reported to have entered Nvidia's SOCAMM2 supply chain with LPDDR5/5X products. LPDDR is memory designed to use relatively little power; SOCAMM2 is a module format that brings such memory into server systems. The investment case anticipates rising demand as Nvidia expands production of Vera Rubin.

Nvidia's Vera Rubin production launch also brings demand for HBM4, an advanced form of stacked memory. HBM sits close to powerful processors and moves large amounts of data rapidly. LPDDR products and conventional server memory meet other needs within the wider system.

Why older DDR4 memory remains valuable

Nanya can also benefit indirectly from AI investment. Its official 2025 presentation said major suppliers were reducing DDR4 and LPDDR4 production while shifting capacity toward HBM, DDR5 and LPDDR5. At the same time, Nanya planned to increase DDR4 and LPDDR4 shipments to meet customer demand.

DDR4 is an older generation of mainstream memory, but equipment already designed around it continues to require supplies. Consumer products, communications equipment and parts of server infrastructure still use it. Moving a factory toward newer products can therefore tighten the supply of an older product that customers still need.

The domestic institutional forecast estimates that the DDR4 supply shortfall could exceed 20% in 2027. It also projects that server applications will account for more than half of total DRAM bit demand, with a server memory shortfall above 20%, compared with about 10% for DRAM as a whole.

The same forecast expects monthly production capacity at the three largest DRAM manufacturers to increase by around 10% to 15% by the end of 2027 compared with a year earlier. Its positive view of Nanya depends on demand growing faster than that additional supply.

New factories will take time to contribute

Nanya's expansion plans stretch beyond the immediate pricing surge. Its new plant in Taishan is scheduled to begin equipment installation in the first quarter of 2027, with a target of processing 30,000 wafers a month by the end of 2028 and 50,000 by the end of 2030.

A wafer is a thin disc of semiconductor material on which many chips are manufactured. Monthly wafer capacity describes the scale of a factory's production, while the amount of usable memory it produces also depends on chip design and manufacturing performance.

The institutional forecast describes staged additions of about 35,900 wafers a month to an existing base of roughly 65,000, with contributions beginning in the second half of 2027. The factory schedule describes equipment installation and later production targets. Nanya's plans also include a facility for advanced packaging and testing in Pingtung.

The main milestones are:

• October 13, 2025: Nanya published its third quarter recovery results and technology update.
• October 12, 2026: Lee discussed continued memory shortages and further price increases.
• First quarter of 2027: Equipment installation at the Taishan plant and customer validation of the 1C manufacturing process are scheduled to begin.
• End of 2028: Taishan targets 30,000 wafers a month, while the Pingtung facility is expected to introduce silicon connections and wafer stacking technologies.
• End of 2030: Taishan targets monthly wafer processing of 50,000.

Technology spending supports the product shift

Nanya's official 2025 release said shipments of its 1B 16Gb DDR5-5600 product had reached a 10% share, while DDR5-6400 met design specifications. The company also said pilot work on its 1C and 1D manufacturing processes was proceeding as planned.

The release described development of customized HBM and TSV/DDP technologies as progressing on schedule. TSV technology creates tiny electrical connections through silicon, allowing memory layers to communicate in a stack. Such manufacturing and packaging work supports the move toward more demanding memory products.

Nanya's 2025 investment plan called for capital expenditure of up to NT$16 billion and annual bit shipment growth of about 50%, raised from an earlier plan above 40%. Spending on factories and equipment had reached NT$11.2 billion in the first nine months.

The official presentation also showed a stronger financial position during that recovery. Third quarter operating cash flow was NT$5.722 billion, compared with an outflow of NT$1.878 billion in the second quarter. Cash less short and long term debt rose to approximately NT$24.1 billion from NT$19.1 billion.

What sits behind the NT$570 valuation

The NT$570 price target uses projected 2027 book value of NT$230.70 per share and a price to book multiple of approximately 2.5. Book value is the accounting value of a company's assets after subtracting its liabilities. The forecast assumes that another year of strong profits will substantially increase that value.

The institution projects 2027 revenue of NT$694.617 billion, up 66.8%, and earnings per share of NT$128.01. Against the original account's NT$477 share price, the NT$570 target represents potential appreciation of about 19.5%.

Using projected 2026 earnings of NT$75.93 per share, NT$477 equates to a price to earnings ratio of about 6.3. Using the reported September 2026 book value of NT$118.99 per share, it equates to roughly four times book value. Those calculations use different measures: annual profit in the first case and accumulated net assets in the second.

Nanya's exposure to pricing is the central investment risk. Falling contract prices would reduce revenue per bit, while limited shipment growth would leave less room to compensate through volume. Additional industry capacity and slower AI spending could also ease the shortage that currently supports profits. The next tests are fourth quarter contract prices, shipment volumes and progress toward the 2027 factory milestones.

Key Points

• Nanya's reported third quarter 2026 revenue reached NT$133.649 billion, with net profit of NT$87.627 billion and earnings of NT$25.40 per share.
• Average selling prices rose more than 60% from the previous quarter, while bit shipments declined.
• A domestic institutional forecast sets a NT$570 target and expects fourth quarter selling prices to rise another 15% to 20%.
• AI infrastructure accounts for more than 20% of revenue, while reduced industry production of DDR4 supports conventional memory prices.
• Taishan factory equipment installation is scheduled for early 2027, with larger production targets extending to 2028 and 2030.
• The earnings outlook depends heavily on continued pricing strength as Nanya and its competitors add capacity.