Half of Uzbekistan's Irrigated Land Affected by Salt as Water Losses Complicate Farm Climate Plans

Salt and leaking canals put agricultural gains under pressure

Half of Uzbekistan's irrigated land is affected by salt, and 37% of irrigation water is lost in canals before reaching fields, according to research by the Centre for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR). The findings place soil restoration and water management at the centre of three scenarios for reducing emissions from agriculture, forestry and land use through 2070.

Abdurashid Bozorov, a CERR sector head, presented the research at an international workshop held at the Ministry of Economy and Finance on October 19–20. Representatives of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations joined discussions about food production, natural resources and climate goals.

The centre also recorded substantial agricultural gains between 2017 and 2025: grain yields rose 48%, raw cotton yields increased 71%, and water withdrawals fell 22%. Technologies designed to save water now cover 2.6 million hectares.

Uzbekistan therefore faces two tasks at once: sustaining higher production while repairing the land and water systems on which that production depends. For farmers, salt accumulation can mean weaker crops even when irrigation water arrives. For water managers, losses along the delivery route make it harder to supply farms reliably.

Academic research and a World Bank assessment show how deeply these problems are rooted. They also explain why installing more efficient irrigation equipment needs to go together with drainage repairs, reliable water allocation and decisions about how saved water will be used.

Decades of measurements show where salinity has spread

A 2025 land degradation study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems provides a detailed historical comparison. Its table, using data from the Soil and Agrochemical Research Institute in Tashkent, records 2.1241 million hectares of saline irrigated land in 2020, or 49.1% of the irrigated area.

The national share increased from 47.5% in 2010 to 49.1% in 2020, a rise of 1.6 percentage points. The saline area grew from 2.0452 million to 2.1241 million hectares, an increase of about 78,900 hectares over the decade.

Regional changes were much sharper. Between 1990 and 2020, the share of irrigated land affected by salt rose from 30.6% to 63.6% in Jizzakh, from 18.9% to 35.1% in Namangan, and from 13% to 45.1% in Ferghana. Jizzakh's share more than doubled, while Ferghana's more than tripled.

The 2020 table also records particularly high salinity shares in Sirdarya, at 79.6%, Karakalpakstan, at 73.6%, and Khorazm, at 73%. These figures give planners a more precise map of need than the national average alone: the extent of damage varies greatly between regions.

The authors also report 21.507 million hectares of soils affected by salt across Uzbekistan. That broader inventory includes soils beyond irrigated farmland, showing that salt management extends across the country's dry landscapes.

Why irrigation also needs working drainage

Salt accumulates when water brings dissolved salts into the soil and evaporation leaves them behind. As salts build up around roots, plants have more difficulty taking up water. Drainage helps carry excess water and salts away from farmland.

The World Bank's irrigation and drainage assessment identifies insufficient drainage as a cause of both salinization and waterlogging. Waterlogging occurs when soil becomes too saturated, leaving roots short of air. Both problems reduce crop yields and damage ecosystems.

The assessment cites Ministry of Water Resources information from 2018 putting the affected share above 50%, compared with the Soil and Agrochemical Research Institute's 49.1% for 2020. CERR's latest finding places the scale at about half of irrigated land.

The Ferghana Valley offers a practical example of the role of drainage. The World Bank assessment describes deteriorated drainage facilities, rising groundwater, waterlogging and soil salinity there. Its review of the first Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Project recorded substantial reductions in groundwater levels, flooding and salinity following the work. The evaluation lacked a credible comparison showing what would have happened without the project, limiting how precisely its contribution could be measured.

Water losses occur along the whole delivery chain

CERR estimates that 37% of irrigation water disappears from canals before reaching farmland. Put simply, out of every 100 units entering that delivery route, about 63 reach the fields.

The 2025 academic study gives a broader estimate, citing Ministry of Agriculture figures of at least 18.2 billion cubic metres lost from a stated supply of 46.1 billion cubic metres, or 39.5%. That estimate covers poorly maintained infrastructure and inefficient irrigation practices, while CERR's figure describes canal losses.

The World Bank assessment identifies three connected causes of shortages: losses during delivery, poor irrigation planning and scheduling, and inefficient application in fields. A farm can therefore receive too little water because a canal leaks, because deliveries arrive at the wrong time, or because water is distributed poorly once it arrives.

A 2022 irrigation study published in Sustainability also puts agricultural irrigation losses at 37%. Its expert assessment estimated an irrigation water deficit of 20–30% nationally, varying by province and year. This helps explain why farmers may use efficiency gains first to give thirsty crops more water.

Higher yields have changed the starting point

CERR's figures for 2017–2025 show that Uzbekistan is tackling these problems after a period of rising output per hectare. Yield means the amount harvested from a given area, so the reported gains concern the productivity of land rather than simply the size of the harvest.

Using 2017 as a starting value of 100, the reported increases would put grain yields at 148 and raw cotton yields at 171 in 2025. Water withdrawals, after the reported 22% reduction, would stand at 78 on the same kind of index. These comparisons express the scale of the changes without requiring an assumed starting yield or water volume.

The 2.6 million hectares covered by technologies designed to save water represent another major change. CERR places better water management alongside more efficient agricultural land use and reduced food losses in its proposals.

For farms, the next gains depend on conditions beyond equipment in the field. A more efficient watering system still needs dependable deliveries, soil that supports healthy roots and an outlet for excess salts. The research points towards treating those needs as parts of one agricultural system.

Why efficient equipment may lead to more water use

The Sustainability study, published on July 8, 2022, examined a problem known as the rebound effect. This happens when a technology saves water for one task, but people then use some or all of that saving for more production.

Researchers used two rounds of structured expert interviews in 2020 and 2021 to assess how this might happen in Uzbekistan. They identified several possible responses: providing more water to crops currently receiving too little, expanding irrigated land, switching to crops that need more water, and growth in demand elsewhere in the economy.

A farmer who can irrigate the same field with less water may use the remaining supply for a second crop. That can increase food production and income, while leaving less water available for other farms or natural ecosystems than a purely technical calculation would suggest.

The study also explains that some water seeping from canals or fields returns to streams or shallow groundwater. Water accounting therefore needs to follow what happens across the wider river basin, including where water returns and where it is consumed.

The researchers discuss policy options including limits on the expansion of irrigated land, adjustments to water allocations after efficiency improvements, and reserving part of the savings for environmental needs. Choosing how to divide saved water is a central part of making irrigation investment deliver its intended benefits.

Livestock is central to the emissions challenge

Agriculture accounts for 17.5% of Uzbekistan's total greenhouse gas emissions, according to CERR. Nearly two thirds of agricultural emissions are methane, with livestock identified as the main source. Methane is a gas that traps heat in the atmosphere.

CERR's modelling identifies higher livestock productivity, more efficient fertilizer use, pasture restoration and forestry development as ways to cut emissions. Decarbonization here means reducing the climate warming gases associated with producing food and managing land, including methane as well as carbon dioxide.

Higher livestock productivity can increase the amount of food produced relative to the resources used and reduce pressure on pastures. Restoring grazing land and using fertilizer more carefully connect the climate plan directly to the condition of soil.

The 2025 land study describes overgrazing, loss of vegetation and erosion as major pressures on Uzbekistan's landscapes. It also cites Presidential Decree No. PP-277 of June 10, 2022, and a Cabinet of Ministers decree on pasture protection dated March 12, 2024, placing land restoration within an existing policy setting.

Three scenarios extend to 2070

CERR examined three possible routes for agriculture, forestry and land use through 2070. The first continues current trends. The second implements existing government programmes. The third adds measures intended to raise productivity and reduce emissions.

The scenarios compare different levels of action over the same period. Continuing current trends provides a reference point, while the other routes examine what existing commitments and further measures could change.

No numerical emissions reduction target, scenario cost or implementation deadline was given in the presentation details. The 2070 horizon is the endpoint of the modelling, while the policy proposals focus on water management, food losses, land productivity, livestock, fertilizer, pastures and forests.

Reducing food losses has a practical connection to resource use: food that reaches consumers makes productive use of the land, water and other inputs already spent growing it. Combining that approach with healthier soils and better irrigation links the climate plan to the everyday task of producing enough food.

How the evidence and policies developed

Uzbekistan's current debate brings together decades of soil measurements, earlier irrigation assessments and a new set of agricultural scenarios. The main dates show how the focus has widened from managing damaged land to coordinating water, food production and emissions.

• 1990–2020: Soil institute data track national and regional changes in irrigated land salinity, including sharp increases in Jizzakh, Namangan and Ferghana.
• 2017–2025: CERR records higher grain and raw cotton yields, alongside a 22% reduction in water withdrawals.
• 2020–2021: Researchers conduct expert interviews on how irrigation efficiency could change water use in Uzbekistan.
• June 10, 2022: Presidential Decree No. PP-277, cited in the land degradation study, is issued.
• July 8, 2022: Sustainability publishes the assessment of potential irrigation rebound effects.
• March 12, 2024: A Cabinet of Ministers decree addresses pasture protection.
• October 19–20: CERR presents its findings at the Ministry of Economy and Finance workshop.
• 2070: The endpoint for CERR's three agricultural, forestry and land use scenarios.

For farmers and water managers, the common task across these dates is concrete: deliver water reliably, remove excess water and salts, protect productive soil, and decide how efficiency gains will be shared. CERR's scenarios bring those decisions into the same discussion as food security and emissions reduction.

Key Points

• CERR estimates that half of Uzbekistan's irrigated land is saline and 37% of irrigation water is lost in canals.
• Soil institute data record 2.1241 million hectares of saline irrigated land in 2020, equal to 49.1% of the irrigated area.
• Between 2017 and 2025, grain yields rose 48%, raw cotton yields increased 71%, and water withdrawals fell 22%, according to CERR.
• Poor drainage contributes to salinity and waterlogging, making drainage repairs an essential partner to irrigation improvements.
• Agriculture produces 17.5% of national greenhouse gas emissions; methane accounts for nearly two thirds of agricultural emissions.
• Three scenarios through 2070 examine current trends, existing programmes and additional measures to improve productivity and reduce emissions.
• Research warns that expanded farming or more intensive production can use up water savings from efficient equipment.