Armenia Targets Azerbaijan Peace Treaty Before 2031 as Border and Constitutional Disputes Persist

Pashinyan sets a deadline for turning an agreed text into a treaty

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has set a target of signing and ratifying a peace treaty with Azerbaijan before 2031, putting a timetable on an agreement that remains unfinished more than a year after the two countries initialed its text in Washington.

Speaking at a televised Cabinet meeting on October 15, 2026, Pashinyan described the treaty as a central task for his government and for him personally. His administration's program for 2026 to 2031 prioritizes giving peace between the neighboring countries a lasting institutional foundation and completing the agreement.

Pashinyan told ministers that he considered the timetable achievable:

"I have set myself a task, a specific timetable, to resolve the issue before 2031," he said.

The announcement brings together several unresolved questions: Azerbaijan's demand for changes to Armenia's Constitution, the practical work of defining the border, reopening transport routes and addressing humanitarian concerns after decades of conflict over Karabakh.

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought two wars over the region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan regained full control in September 2023, following a military offensive that prompted the departure of its ethnic Armenian population.

What the peace agreement would change

Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev initialed the agreement at a White House summit hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump on August 8, 2025. The text commits the countries to recognizing each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, renouncing territorial claims and establishing formal diplomatic relations.

Initialing a text records agreement on its wording. Formal signature and ratification are further steps, with ratification providing approval through each country's domestic procedures. Pashinyan's deadline covers both of those remaining stages.

For Armenia and Azerbaijan, the proposed treaty would create a formal basis for relations after years in which conflict over territory shaped their dealings. Diplomatic relations would give their governments an established channel for handling disputes and conducting regular business.

No date has been announced for a signing ceremony or an Armenian constitutional referendum. The 2031 target is Pashinyan's stated objective; a joint timetable for completing the treaty has yet to be announced.

Why Armenia's Constitution remains an obstacle

Azerbaijan wants Armenia to amend its Constitution before signing the treaty. Baku argues that the Constitution's reference to Armenia's declaration of independence, which calls for unification with Karabakh, amounts to a territorial claim against Azerbaijan.

Armenia rejects that interpretation. Yerevan maintains that the agreed treaty text already answers concerns about territorial claims by committing both countries to recognize each other's territory and give up such claims.

The disagreement concerns which guarantees are needed before the agreement can be concluded. Azerbaijan seeks a change to Armenia's constitutional framework, while Armenia points to the commitments written into the treaty itself.

Any constitutional amendments would require approval in a nationwide referendum. That places a major part of Azerbaijan's demand before Armenian voters, rather than leaving the decision solely to negotiations between the two governments. Completing the treaty therefore involves domestic political decisions as well as diplomatic bargaining.

A sequence from military victory to a peace deadline

The present negotiations follow a sharp change in control of Karabakh and a subsequent effort to turn that outcome into a formal settlement between states.

• September 2023: Azerbaijan regained full control of Karabakh in a military offensive, followed by the exodus of more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians.
• August 8, 2025: Pashinyan and Aliyev initialed the peace agreement at the White House summit hosted by Trump.
• October 14, 2026: Pashinyan published a video setting out his vision for borders, territorial exchanges and open transport routes after a treaty.
• October 15, 2026: Pashinyan set out his goal of signing and ratifying the treaty before 2031 and met UN Secretary-General António Guterres in Yerevan.

The next stage requires political decisions on the remaining disagreements, alongside the practical work of defining the border and restoring transport connections.

Pashinyan proposes a border without enclaves

Pashinyan's October 14 video went beyond the timetable for a treaty. He described a future in which Armenia would have a territory of 29,743 square kilometers and the border would be delimited and demarcated on the basis of the Alma-Ata Declaration.

Delimitation means agreeing where a border runs, usually through maps and legal descriptions. Demarcation means marking that agreed line on the ground. Pashinyan invoked the declaration as the basis for carrying out both tasks.

He also proposed eliminating enclaves and exclaves through reciprocal exchanges of territory with precisely corresponding areas. An enclave is a piece of one country's territory surrounded by another country; viewed from the country it belongs to, it is an exclave.

Such exchanges could remove isolated pockets of territory and simplify access for the countries concerned. They would still require agreement on the exact land involved. Pashinyan presented this arrangement as his vision for peace after signature and ratification, with implementation dependent on negotiations with Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan said his talks with Aliyev in Turkmenistan had left him with a preliminary impression that this form of settlement might be achievable. His language was cautious, describing an opportunity that the governments would need to turn into reality.

Transport routes are part of the same negotiation

The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, known as TRIPP, is another priority on Pashinyan's agenda. The proposed transport connection would link mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan through southern Armenia.

Nakhchivan is separated from the rest of Azerbaijan. A route through Armenia would provide a connection between the two, making arrangements for travel across Armenian territory central to the project.

Pashinyan's wider proposal calls for roads and other transport links to operate beyond TRIPP as well. He described reciprocal access: journeys from one part of Armenia to another through Azerbaijan, and journeys from one part of Azerbaijan to another through Armenia.

Armenia has also promoted regional connectivity through its Crossroads of Peace initiative. Across these proposals, the practical aim is to reopen connections that could support movement, trade and economic cooperation.

For people and businesses, the value would depend on routes actually becoming usable under agreed arrangements. A treaty, border settlement and transport agreements would each address a different part of that task. The region also attracts competing interests from Russia, Türkiye and Iran, giving the reopening of routes a wider diplomatic importance.

Guterres backs the agreement in Yerevan

UN Secretary-General António Guterres voiced support for the peace process during his October 15 visit to Yerevan. He was in Armenia for the summit associated with COP17, the United Nations biodiversity conference hosted by the city.

Guterres met Pashinyan to discuss regional developments, completion of the peace agreement and TRIPP. Their talks connected the diplomatic process with efforts to reopen regional transport links and promote cooperation.

At a press conference, Guterres was asked about Armenian prisoners held in Baku and the prospects for peace while they remained detained. The UN chief responded by affirming his support for the agreement:

"I am a strong supporter of the peace agreement," he said.

Guterres also expressed hope that both the treaty and outstanding problems could be addressed quickly:

"I'm very hopeful that things will move fast in order to complete the peace agreement and in order to solve all those pending problems that are indeed regrettable," he added.

His response called for progress on unresolved issues, without an explicit demand for the release of the Armenian detainees.

Prisoners and displaced families remain central concerns

Armenian detainees in Azerbaijan include former political and military leaders of the Armenian administration in Karabakh. Their continued imprisonment remains a humanitarian concern alongside the negotiations over state relations.

More than 100,000 Armenians displaced from Karabakh in 2023 also remain affected by unresolved questions concerning their rights. The region, known to Armenians as Artsakh, had been home to an ethnic Armenian population before Azerbaijan's offensive and the ensuing exodus.

The question put to Guterres brought these human consequences directly into discussion of the treaty. For families awaiting the return of detainees and people displaced from their homes, progress involves specific outcomes as well as diplomatic commitments.

The planned treaty addresses sovereignty, territorial claims and relations between governments. Decisions concerning prisoners and displaced people remain part of the wider effort to settle the conflict's aftermath.

Ending mutual claims while keeping other priorities moving

Pashinyan's vision calls for both governments to stop making territorial or political claims against each other. He named Karabakh, Gardman, Shirvan, Nakhchivan and Western Azerbaijan among the terms that should no longer form the basis of such claims.

That proposal connects the treaty's promise to renounce territorial claims with the future conduct of both governments. A durable arrangement would require agreement on territory and a continuing commitment to handle relations within that framework.

At the Cabinet meeting, Pashinyan said pursuing the treaty should proceed alongside TRIPP, economic development, the opening of transport links and existing state programs. He described completion of the agreement as closing a major chapter in Armenian history and opening another.

The government now has a public target against which its progress can be measured. Reaching it will require agreement with Azerbaijan on the remaining conditions, approval through domestic procedures and practical arrangements that make the promised peace work beyond the treaty text.

Key Points

• Pashinyan aims to sign and ratify the Azerbaijan peace treaty before 2031.
• The agreement was initialed in Washington on August 8, 2025, but remains unsigned and unratified.
• Azerbaijan demands constitutional changes in Armenia, while Yerevan says the treaty already provides sufficient guarantees against territorial claims.
• Pashinyan proposes defined borders, reciprocal territorial exchanges and open transport routes, including TRIPP.
• Guterres supports completing the agreement and resolving outstanding problems.
• Armenian detainees in Azerbaijan and more than 100,000 people displaced from Karabakh remain major humanitarian concerns.