Hanoi's VND 2–4 Billion Apartments Almost Disappear as Sales Slump and Mortgage Costs Bite

Fewer sales, but few homes within reach

Hanoi's apartment market slowed sharply in the third quarter of 2026, yet buyers with VND 2 billion to VND 4 billion still faced an acute shortage of suitable homes. Savills Vietnam's market update, released on October 15, recorded apartment sales falling 48% from a year earlier and new supply dropping 51%.

The slowdown has exposed a mismatch between what developers sell and what households can afford. The Urban Affairs Committee of the Hanoi People's Council found that expensive apartments accounted for 78% of new commercial apartment supply in the first half of 2026. Apartments costing less than VND 25 million per square metre were almost absent from the market for homes sold directly by developers.

Falling sales have brought some price reductions and stronger bargaining power for buyers with cash. Families relying on mortgages face a different calculation: floating interest rates of 12–15% a year can make even a discounted apartment difficult to finance.

Savills expects about 7,000 apartments from 11 new projects to launch in the fourth quarter. Whether those homes ease the shortage facing ordinary buyers will depend on their prices, sizes and financing terms, rather than the number of launches alone.

How the affordable segment shrank

Savills says the supply of its more affordable Grade C apartments has declined by an average of 27% annually since 2022. The segment is expected to account for only 12% of future supply. Its latest assessment describes homes priced between VND 2 billion and VND 4 billion as almost unavailable.

The change predates this year's slowdown. In the first nine months of 2024, apartments costing VND 2–4 billion represented 29% of sales in Savills' figures, while homes below VND 2 billion accounted for just 1%. Apartments costing at least VND 4 billion made up 70%, compared with only 2% in 2020.

By the first half of 2026, the People's Council committee found that apartments represented about 70% of newly launched property supply and 73% of transactions. Within new commercial apartment supply, units priced at VND 50–80 million per square metre and those above VND 80 million dominated.

Apartments can therefore remain Hanoi's busiest property category while offering little choice to households with limited savings. More activity in the apartment sector does not automatically mean more homes at prices those households can pay.

What a VND 4 billion budget buys

Avison Young put Hanoi's average price for apartments sold by developers at about VND 108 million per square metre, or US$4,180, in the third quarter. At that price, VND 4 billion would cover roughly 37 square metres, before any additional charges. VND 2 billion would cover about 18.5 square metres.

CBRE's broader market assessment, which includes neighbouring developments, recorded a lower average asking price of VND 86 million per square metre, excluding value added tax, maintenance charges and discounts. Even at that level, an illustrative apartment measuring 60 square metres would cost VND 5.16 billion. Its average for projects within inner Hanoi was VND 102 million per square metre, putting the same area at VND 6.12 billion.

Older apartments offer a different price range. Homes completed five to 10 years ago, with ownership certificates already issued, were available at about VND 51–65 million per square metre. A hypothetical apartment measuring 60 square metres would therefore cost VND 3.06–3.9 billion, placing some existing homes within the budget increasingly missing from new supply.

Those calculations help explain why buyers are looking beyond new launches. They also show how an apartment's size matters alongside its advertised price per square metre.

Sales measures point to a broad slowdown

Savills recorded apartment sales falling 26% from the previous quarter, alongside its annual decline of 48%. Knight Frank recorded 2,960 sales, down 40% quarterly and 52% annually, while CBRE counted more than 3,900 sales, down 33% quarterly and 66% annually.

The firms track different market portfolios. CBRE's coverage includes large developments in Van Giang, Hung Yen province, beyond Hanoi's administrative boundary. Its figures show that more than half of new supply in the quarter came from that area, making geography an important part of comparisons.

Avison Young measured an absorption rate of about 31%, compared with 70–80% a year earlier. Absorption describes the share of apartments offered for sale that find buyers during a period. In simple terms, about 31 of every 100 available apartments sold, rather than 70 to 80.

Knight Frank recorded absorption of new supply and existing inventory at 38%, its lowest since 2024. Both measures describe a market where homes are taking longer to sell and buyers have become more selective.

Prices are moving in different directions

Savills found that average primary asking prices, meaning prices sought by developers, declined for a third consecutive quarter. CBRE recorded a quarterly fall of 9% and an annual fall of 6% in its broader market, while inner Hanoi prices dropped 6% quarterly and 3% annually.

Avison Young recorded a quarterly increase of 1.5–2.3%, with growth slowing from the pace seen since late 2025. Knight Frank put its average at US$4,349 per square metre, approximately VND 114 million, down 0.15% quarterly but still 25% above a year earlier.

Location and the mix of apartments entering each dataset help explain the range. Avison Young recorded prices of US$3,300–4,500 per square metre for new expensive apartments in eastern and western satellite areas, compared with US$5,500–9,800 in the urban core and West Lake West area.

Savills Vietnam research and consulting deputy director Cao Thi Thanh Huong attributed high primary prices to new supply concentrating in expensive segments while affordable housing remained scarce. The People's Council committee's finding that 78% of new commercial apartments were expensive or luxury units gives that explanation a concrete foundation.

Mortgage costs keep buyers waiting

Floating mortgage rates of 12–15% annually are a major obstacle for households that need substantial loans. A floating rate can change during the loan term, unlike a rate fixed for an agreed period.

For illustration, a VND 2 billion loan at those rates would generate VND 240–300 million in interest over a year if the balance stayed unchanged. That equals VND 20–25 million a month in interest alone, before repayment of the borrowed money. Actual payments depend on the loan agreement and how quickly the outstanding balance falls.

Developers have responded with financing support. CBRE says some offer fixed interest rates for as long as five years, including periods after handover. Other incentives include longer payment schedules and extended periods before buyers must start repaying principal, the original amount borrowed.

Le Huu Nghia, general director of Le Thanh Construction and Trading Company Limited, identified financing costs and bank rates of about 15% as major pressures on housing prices. Developers pay interest too, and long approval or construction periods add financing, management and other costs before homes reach the market.

A survey of 530 brokers by property platform Batdongsan.com.vn found that 63% said customers were continuing to observe the market and weigh their choices. Some 48% reported transaction volumes falling by more than half from the previous quarter.

Cash buyers gain ground in existing homes

Owners under repayment pressure have become more willing to negotiate. Avison Young recorded reductions of 8–12% in negotiations involving some sellers whose principal repayment grace periods had expired. Broader observations put negotiated reductions on certain existing apartments at 5–12%.

CBRE recorded average secondary asking prices of about VND 60 million per square metre, down 5% quarterly and 8% annually. Savills recorded a quarterly decline but prices still above a year earlier within its coverage. Savills also found gaps between developer and resale prices of 28% for Grade A apartments and 17% for Grade B.

Batdongsan.com.vn estimated that existing apartments accounted for 54% of apartment transactions in the quarter. Demand for homes to live in represented 83% of demand in that segment, compared with 17% for investment. Its resale asking price index fell 15% from the beginning of the year to September, against 9% for apartments sold by developers.

Avison Young, the property services company tracking buying behaviour, described a move away from hurried purchases driven by rising prices:

"Homebuyers have deliberately abandoned the urge to chase rising prices, shifting instead to careful calculations and a search for real value," Avison Young said.

Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, director of residential services at CBRE Vietnam, expects developers to rely heavily on incentives rather than broad reductions in advertised prices. He forecast early payment discounts of 8–15% and said the combined value of incentives could bring effective transaction prices 7–12% below initial list prices. Buyers able to pay quickly are best placed to use those discounts.

New supply is moving outward

Avison Young counted more than 3,200 new apartments in the third quarter, bringing total primary inventory on offer to nearly 11,500. More than 80% of new supply was in expensive and luxury segments, mainly in eastern and western areas.

CBRE counted about 6,200 launches across its wider market, down 28% quarterly and 40% annually. Van Giang supplied more than half of those launches and about 40% of the total for the first nine months.

Across those nine months, CBRE recorded approximately 22,820 launches, up 8% from 2025 and 20% from 2024. The quarterly retreat therefore followed a longer period of increased supply. Some developers postponed launches as sales weakened.

Savills' Grade B category accounted for 73% of apartment sales in the quarter. Its classification differs from the price groupings used by other firms, which describe most new stock as expensive. Across those measures, the central problem remains the limited supply at the lowest prices.

Infrastructure brings projects, but sales stay slow

Hanoi's villa and townhouse supply rose 5% from a year earlier in Savills' assessment. Projects were positioning themselves around Metro Line 5, Hoa Lac Hi Tech Park and the planned VinFast–Trong Dong stadium area.

Buyers remained cautious about planning directions and borrowing costs. Savills recorded high primary prices and annual increases in resale prices for villas and townhouses. CBRE's coverage recorded only slightly more than 500 sales, equivalent to about 30% of new supply, and average resale asking prices of VND 183 million per square metre of land, down 6% quarterly and 4% annually.

The People's Council committee linked property values increasingly to local economic activity and actual infrastructure progress. Its monitoring also identified lengthy investment procedures, land clearance difficulties, land valuation problems and inconsistent coordination between agencies.

Those delays affect housing costs as well as delivery dates. Projects can accumulate financing and management expenses while waiting for approvals, making it harder to bring cheaper homes to market.

Social housing plans face a delivery test

Hanoi has approved 158 social housing and armed forces housing projects comprising about 139,000 apartments, according to the People's Council committee. That represented 11 more projects and roughly 7,000 more apartments than the figures recorded at the end of July 2026.

The committee also recorded construction starting on 33 social housing projects with about 30,000 apartments during the year, exceeding the assigned target for starts. At an October 13 national housing policy meeting, however, the Ministry of Construction listed Hanoi among six localities considered unlikely to meet their social housing targets. The figures cover different stages of delivery: approval and construction starts come before completed homes become available.

Standing Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Tuc called at that meeting for stalled projects to be resolved and more housing priced within people's means. Deputy Construction Minister Nguyen Van Sinh said roughly 5,012 property projects nationwide still faced obstacles, while inventories in 27 reporting localities totalled about 51,950 units and plots.

The People's Council committee also identified risks involving premature fundraising, improper use of customer money, mortgaged projects and delayed handovers or ownership certificates. It proposed closer sharing of notarisation, tax and land records to flag transactions declared at unusually low values, a practice that reduces tax receipts and distorts price data.

What comes next for buyers

Savills Hanoi research and consulting senior director Do Thi Thu Hang said genuine housing demand remained supported by urbanisation, rising incomes and improving infrastructure, despite affordability pressures. The next supply milestones extend from the final quarter of 2026 to the end of the decade:

• Fourth quarter of 2026: Savills expects about 7,000 apartment launches from 11 new projects.
• Through the end of 2027: Knight Frank forecasts roughly 35,000 additional apartments, with more than one third in western areas.
• 2027: Hanoi expects 27 social housing projects providing 28,696 apartments.
• 2028–2030: The city's social housing plans include 101 projects with approximately 86,216 apartments.

The price breakdown of the anticipated fourth quarter launches has not been specified. For households with VND 2–4 billion, the immediate opportunities are more likely to come from selected existing apartments and negotiated sales, while access to social housing depends on eligibility and project delivery.

CBRE Hanoi senior director Nguyen Hoai An described the market as rebalancing after about two years of continuous growth. For buyers, the practical change is more time to compare homes and negotiate. For developers and officials, the test is whether the next wave of supply reaches households currently priced out.

Key Points

• Savills recorded Hanoi apartment sales falling 48% annually and new supply declining 51% in the third quarter of 2026.
• Homes priced at VND 2–4 billion have become extremely scarce in new supply.
• Expensive and luxury apartments represented 78% of new commercial supply in the first half of 2026, according to the People's Council committee.
• Floating mortgage rates of 12–15% continue to restrict buyers who need loans.
• Some existing homeowners accepted negotiated reductions of 8–12%, favouring buyers with cash.
• About 7,000 apartment launches are expected in the fourth quarter, alongside a larger social housing pipeline for subsequent years.