Tajikistan Child Marriage Study Finds Decline, but Families Still See Few Alternatives for Girls

Fewer girls marry early, yet the pressure persists

In Tajikistan, 8.8% of women aged 20 to 24 married before their 18th birthday, even though 96% of parents and caregivers surveyed say child marriage should stop in their communities. A national study published by UNICEF in October 2026 identifies the gap behind those figures: 58% of parents and caregivers still believe marriage is the best option available for girls.

The findings connect that lack of alternatives with interrupted education, early motherhood and poorer health outcomes for children. Child marriage is associated with an 11% reduction in women's educational attainment. Children whose mothers gave birth before age 18 face approximately four times higher odds of stunting before their fifth birthday.

UNICEF and the Strategic Research Centre under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan conducted the study, with support from the UN Resident Coordinator's Office, UNDP, UNFPA, UN Women and the World Food Programme. It combines national survey data, economic analysis and qualitative research to examine why the practice continues and what ending it could achieve.

UNICEF's national study report defines child marriage as a formal or informal union before age 18. That definition matters because a religious ceremony or an unregistered union can place a girl in marriage even without a civil marriage certificate.

The study estimates potential annual economic gains of $19.4 million from ending child marriage. Its central finding, however, goes beyond money: opposition to the practice does not necessarily translate into confidence that girls can remain in school, find decent work and shape their own futures.

What the decline actually measures

The 2023 Demographic and Health Survey found that 8.8% of women aged 20 to 24 had married before 18, compared with 10.7% of women aged 25 to 29 and 13.9% of women aged 30 to 34. The youngest group's figure is 5.1 percentage points below that of the oldest group, approximately 37% lower relative to 13.9%.

These are comparisons between age groups, not measurements taken in three separate years. They suggest that women who reached adulthood more recently were less likely to have married as children. They do not establish the current annual number of child marriages or show that the practice has declined evenly across districts.

The study describes Tajikistan as having one of Central Asia's higher prevalence rates. A useful comparison beyond that region comes from Afghanistan, where 28.7% of women aged 20 to 24 married before 18, according to the survey discussed in the Afghan child marriage findings. That is 19.9 percentage points above Tajikistan's 8.8%, although the surveys cover different periods and national circumstances.

Tajikistan's longer record also requires care. An older UNFPA overview cites the 2012 Demographic and Health Survey, which found that 15% of women aged 25 to 49 had married before 18. That much wider age range includes older marriage histories, so it cannot be treated as directly comparable with the latest figure for women aged 20 to 24.

Families reject child marriage but still favour marriage

The new findings show that recognizing harm and choosing an alternative are different things. While 89% of parents and caregivers consider child marriage a form of violence against children, 31% agree that securing a good marriage opportunity can be more important than continuing a girl's education.

Almost half believe boys' education should take priority when household resources are scarce. This helps explain how families can oppose child marriage in principle while making decisions that narrow a daughter's options. If education is interrupted and employment seems inaccessible, marriage may become the only future they consider realistic.

The study identifies several pressures operating together: girls have limited influence over marriage decisions, expectations favour motherhood over education and careers, and families worry about economic security, honour and reputation. It does not identify one cause that explains every marriage.

That distinction changes the policy response. Information about harm addresses only part of the problem when most parents already say the practice should end. The findings support action that makes staying in school and preparing for employment credible choices, alongside efforts to give girls a stronger voice in decisions affecting them.

Earlier evidence shows why poverty is not the whole explanation

UNFPA's Tajikistan marriage overview describes poverty, male labour migration, social expectations and religious influences as drivers. Interview participants linked migration to Russia and Kazakhstan with parental fears that daughters would be left unmarried. These were explanations offered during that earlier research, rather than measured estimates of migration's effect.

The overview also records how the civil war of 1992 to 1997 shaped some families' decisions. Respondents recalled marriage being used as a supposed protection against rape and damage to a girl's reputation. Some described forced marriages to combatants. Such accounts explain particular experiences without establishing the national frequency of those events.

Historical survey findings complicate the idea that poverty alone determines marriage patterns. In the 2005 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, 8.8% of rural girls aged 15 to 19 were married or in a union, compared with 5.1% in urban areas. Yet the figure was 4.4% among girls in the poorest fifth of households, compared with 9.2% in the fourth wealth quintile and 6.3% in the wealthiest fifth.

Those figures are old and measure marriage status among teenagers, not marriage before 18 among adult women. They nevertheless show why a simple relationship between lower income and higher marriage rates cannot be assumed. The same overview associated lower prevalence in some areas with stronger support for girls completing secondary education.

A legal threshold with exceptions and gaps

Tajikistan raised its minimum marriage age from 17 to 18 in July 2010. The UNFPA overview explains that the Family Code nevertheless permits a court to reduce the threshold by one year. The new study's recommendation to remove legal exceptions shows that court permission remains a concern in efforts to prevent marriage before 18.

The earlier overview also identifies Criminal Code Articles 168 and 169 as prohibiting forced marriage of underage girls and marriage contracts with girls younger than 18. It describes weak enforcement and says that cases were often punished with fines. Those observations should be read as historical findings, not as a current assessment of every court or prosecution.

Unregistered unions present another problem. The overview describes couples using religious ceremonies when they could not register a civil marriage, leaving brides with few legal rights without a registration certificate. The new study similarly identifies informal and unregistered marriages as factors sustaining the practice.

The main legal and research milestones are:

• 2000 and 2010: Censuses recorded marriage status among girls and boys aged 15 to 19, including registered and unregistered marriages.
• July 2010: The minimum marriage age rose from 17 to 18, with a court exception allowing a reduction of one year.
• 2012: The Demographic and Health Survey found that 15% of women aged 25 to 49 had married before 18.
• 2023: The Demographic and Health Survey recorded marriage before 18 among 8.8% of women aged 20 to 24.
• 7 October 2026: UNICEF published its announcement of the new national study and recommendations.

There is a discrepancy within the older overview: its narrative gives 13.4% as the share of girls aged 15 to 19 who were married, widowed or divorced in 2010, while a table prints 13.9%. The listed counts, 56,914 out of 424,996 girls, support approximately 13.4%. The corresponding figure for boys was 2.2%.

Education losses can extend beyond the wedding

The new study associates child marriage with an 11% reduction in women's educational attainment. That does not mean an 11 percentage point decline in school attendance. It describes lower educational attainment among women who married before 18.

Most girls who marry before 18 become mothers soon afterwards, according to the study. Marriage and childcare can then leave little opportunity to resume lessons, acquire qualifications or build skills. The loss can continue into adulthood through reduced access to employment and earnings.

The older UNFPA overview describes a relationship working in both directions: girls may leave education because they marry, or marry earlier because they have already left school. It documents concerns about school expenses, inadequate facilities and family fears about relationships between girls and male classmates.

The new recommendations address both prevention and recovery. They call for reducing barriers to education before marriage, while also helping married girls and adolescent mothers return to school. Treating marriage as the end of a girl's education would leave those already affected outside the response.

Early motherhood and children's growth

The 2023 survey found that 1.2% of women aged 20 to 24 reported a first birth before age 18. UNICEF says most early births occurred within marriage. The new study estimates that approximately three out of four births before 18 are associated with child marriage.

These measures answer different questions. The 1.2% figure describes the share of a particular age group who had an early first birth. The three in four figure describes how often births before 18 are associated with child marriage. Neither should be confused with the 8.8% marriage measure.

The study also finds that women who marry before 18 have 12% more children over their lifetime than women who marry later. This connects early marriage with both an earlier start to motherhood and higher lifetime fertility.

The reported link with stunting is especially concerning. Stunting means a child is too short for their age and reflects impaired growth associated with chronic undernutrition and other adverse conditions. Children whose mothers gave birth before 18 had approximately four times higher odds of stunting before age five. Odds are a statistical measure, so this should not be restated as four times the probability without knowing the underlying rates.

The finding is an association, not proof that maternal age alone causes stunting. It nevertheless supports a response that connects marriage prevention with nutrition and confidential reproductive health services for both married and unmarried adolescents.

Violence and insecurity after marriage

The earlier UNFPA research documents the vulnerability of girls within unequal marriages. A Khatlon crisis centre reported that 55 of the 361 women seeking help in the first six months of 2012 were child spouses, a share of 15.2%. Six of eight women interviewed who had married as children reported violence within their marriages.

These figures are not national estimates of violence. A crisis centre serves people seeking assistance, and eight interviews form a very small group. Their value lies in documenting harm that national marriage percentages alone do not capture.

The overview also describes limited options after divorce for girls who had not completed education or gained employment experience. Together with the new study's findings on schooling and decision making, this points to a need for support after marriage, rather than prevention alone.

What the $19.4 million estimate includes

UNICEF's study announcement, dated 7 October 2026, divides the estimated annual gains into $16.6 million from women's education, productivity and future earnings, and $2.8 million from reductions in child stunting and its lasting consequences.

The two components add to $19.4 million. Education and earnings account for approximately 86% of that total, with reduced stunting accounting for about 14%. Lower fertility could generate further savings by reducing pressure on education and health services, but the announcement gives no separate amount for those savings.

The report describes its economic calculations as approximate estimates of selected costs. They are not a guaranteed budget saving or a promise that every benefit would appear immediately. The published description does not establish the full cost of implementing the proposed measures.

UNICEF also cautions against making economic returns the main justification for protecting girls. Bodily autonomy, safety and rights matter independently of productivity or future earnings. Ending child marriage is an explicit Sustainable Development Goal target, yet the report says investment remains limited.

Recommendations extend beyond changing the law

The study calls for removing exceptions permitting marriage before 18, strengthening birth and marriage registration, and improving enforcement and institutional accountability. Accurate birth records help establish age, while marriage registration addresses unions that might otherwise remain outside formal protection.

Education, social protection, vocational training and access to decent employment form the other major part of the response. These measures address the contradiction at the heart of the findings: families may condemn child marriage while still believing marriage offers a daughter her best available future.

The study also recommends engaging families, religious leaders and communities to challenge harmful expectations and support girls' participation in decisions. Confidential reproductive health services should serve married and unmarried adolescents, with support for girls already married adapted to local circumstances.

The announcement sets out recommendations, not a confirmed implementation timetable. It gives no deadline for removing legal exceptions, no dated legislative vote and no funding commitment for the proposed measures. The next concrete test is whether the findings lead to changes in law, services and educational access that girls can actually use.

Key Points

• In the 2023 survey, 8.8% of women aged 20 to 24 had married before 18, below the figures for older age groups.
• Although 96% of parents and caregivers support stopping child marriage, 58% still see marriage as the best option for girls.
• Child marriage is associated with lower educational attainment, early motherhood and higher lifetime fertility.
• Children whose mothers gave birth before 18 face approximately four times higher odds of stunting before age five.
• Estimated annual gains total $19.4 million from women's education and earnings and reduced child stunting.
• Recommendations include ending legal exceptions, improving registration, supporting school return and expanding employment and health services.
• No implementation deadline or funding commitment is specified in the announcement.