Chuo Shinkansen cost climbs to 11 trillion yen as JR Central plans for 2035 at earliest

A nearly doubled budget and an uncertain opening

Japan's planned maglev railway between Tokyo and Nagoya now carries an estimated construction cost of 11 trillion yen, nearly twice its original budget of 5.52 trillion yen. Central Japan Railway Company, known as JR Central, has raised the estimate from the 7.04 trillion yen figure published in 2021 as rising prices and difficult construction push the project further beyond its earlier timetable.

As of October 31, 2025, the company is using 2035 as the earliest opening year for its calculations, roughly eight years later than originally planned. JR Central describes that year as a convenient planning assumption rather than a confirmed launch date. The actual opening depends heavily on completing tunnels beneath the Southern Alps and resolving access to a disputed stretch in Shizuoka Prefecture.

The Chuo Shinkansen promises to reduce the Tokyo to Nagoya journey to about 40 minutes, compared with roughly one hour and 40 minutes on the fastest Tokaido Shinkansen services today. Its planned maximum operating speed is 505 kilometers per hour. Achieving that speed requires a largely underground route, sophisticated magnetic equipment and demanding construction beneath mountains and busy cities.

JR Central President Shunsuke Niwa addressed the higher budget at a news conference in Nagoya. He said management was responding to the increase while remaining committed to the project's goals.

I take the increase in the construction costs seriously.

The revised estimate brings together several pressures: more expensive materials and labor, difficult mountain and urban works, tunnel design changes and provision for further inflation. The company says it can finance the project through operating cash flow, bonds and loans, while retaining the option to adjust construction speed if financial conditions worsen.

Where the additional money will go

JR Central's new estimate adds around 4 trillion yen to the construction budget. Company figures attribute about 2.3 trillion yen to higher material and labor costs and roughly 1.2 trillion yen to difficult construction zones, including long mountain tunnels.

The revised planning also includes a buffer against future inflation and money for design refinements. Roughly 400 billion yen is tied to tunnel design revisions. All of these estimates use the provisional assumption that the railway begins operating in 2035.

The scale of the increase becomes clearer when the successive budgets are placed together. The rise from 7.04 trillion yen to 11 trillion yen is 3.96 trillion yen, or about 56 percent. Compared with the original 5.52 trillion yen projection, the latest estimate is 5.48 trillion yen higher, an increase of about 99 percent.

The 2021 revision had already identified expensive work at Shinagawa and Nagoya stations, stronger earthquake protections and the challenge of moving and disposing of excavated rock and soil. Those requirements remain part of a project whose route combines confined urban construction sites with deep mountain tunneling.

JR Central must also plan for costs that can change during a long construction period. A buffer for inflation sets aside money for possible future price rises, while design revisions reflect changes to how particular structures will be built. Both affect how much funding the company must arrange before passenger revenue begins.

Shizuoka remains central to the timetable

Shizuoka Prefecture has been the project's most persistent bottleneck. Local authorities have withheld consent for construction on a section of roughly 9 kilometers beneath the source area of the Oi River, citing concerns about river flow and local water resources.

Officials and residents are concerned that groundwater could enter the deep tunnel during excavation and after construction. Water diverted into the tunnel could reduce the amount reaching the river, which supplies people and agriculture. The question is therefore about both building the railway and protecting a water source used by surrounding communities.

Political leadership in Shizuoka has changed, but environmental review and negotiations continue. Until access is granted and tunnel boring begins in that section, a key part of the schedule remains uncertain. Work elsewhere cannot remove the need to finish this connecting stretch.

JR Central also has to bring several construction programs together. Mountain tunnels, station excavation, railway systems and safety certification must all be ready before passengers can travel. A completed tunnel alone is only one part of an operational railway.

The project's milestones show how its ambitions and planning assumptions have developed:

• Original projection: construction between Tokyo and Nagoya was estimated at 5.52 trillion yen.
• 2015: an L0 Series maglev train reached a world record speed of 603 kilometers per hour during testing.
• 2021: the construction estimate rose to 7.04 trillion yen, with station works, earthquake measures and tunnel spoil handling among the cost pressures.
• October 31, 2025: the latest estimate stands at 11 trillion yen, with 2035 used as the provisional opening year for financial calculations.
• 2035: the earliest year now used for planning, with the actual start of service dependent on construction progress and the Shizuoka section.

How magnetic levitation changes the journey

The Chuo Shinkansen will use superconducting magnetic levitation technology, called SCMaglev in Japan. Superconducting magnets on the train interact with specially arranged coils in the guideway, the structure along which the train travels, to produce lift and forward movement.

The train initially runs on rubber tires. At about 150 kilometers per hour, magnetic forces lift it roughly 10 centimeters above the guideway. Removing contact between the train and its running surface greatly reduces mechanical friction, allowing very high cruising speeds and rapid acceleration.

The planned operating limit of 505 kilometers per hour is below the 603 kilometers per hour reached by an L0 Series train in 2015. The first figure describes the intended passenger service; the second is the world record achieved during testing.

Tokyo to Nagoya services are planned to take about 40 minutes. Against the approximately 100 minutes required by today's fastest Tokaido Shinkansen trains, that would save about an hour and reduce the rail journey time by roughly 60 percent.

The first stage will cover about 286 kilometers, with intermediate stations planned at Sagamihara, Kofu, Iida and Nakatsugawa. Around 90 percent of the route will run through tunnels. That alignment provides the straight route, gentle curves and steady gradients needed for very high speeds, while also supporting seismic safety.

The eventual extension to Osaka aims to bring the journey between Tokyo and Osaka, Japan's two largest metropolitan areas, to around 67 minutes. Additional stations are planned in Mie and Nara. That second stage will need its own environmental reviews, funding arrangements and construction timetable after the Nagoya opening.

Why the tunnels are so demanding

The Southern Alps tunnel places some of the railway's hardest engineering work deep beneath mountainous terrain. One section is expected to extend about 25 kilometers, reaching depths of roughly 1,400 meters below the surface. Construction at that depth is unprecedented in Japan.

Rock above a tunnel presses down on the ground around the excavation. At great depth, that pressure is high, while the strength and condition of the rock can vary along the route. Engineers must account for both as excavation advances.

Groundwater adds another challenge. Water entering the works must be managed, and changes to underground water movement matter to communities and ecosystems above. Ventilation and emergency escape facilities also have to be incorporated into long tunnels.

The maglev guideway requires precise construction. Its power supply and control systems must fit within constrained underground spaces, alongside the facilities needed to operate and maintain the railway. Small deviations in the structures supporting a train traveling at very high speed require careful control during construction.

Excavated material must then be removed through access routes in mountain areas or crowded cities. Those transport arrangements, together with geology, water management and underground equipment, add both time and cost. The same largely underground alignment that supports fast travel creates a substantial part of the construction burden.

Busy stations, earthquake protection and excavated soil

Shinagawa and Nagoya stations are among the project's most complex civil engineering sites. Construction takes place beneath active transport hubs and dense neighborhoods, where existing services must keep operating and disruption must be limited.

Crews often have only short working periods at night. Machinery and materials have to pass through narrow access points, making the movement of equipment another part of the construction challenge. JR Central has divided station contracts to manage risks and sequence activities, but those arrangements bring higher overhead and contingency costs.

Earthquake protection also contributes to the budget. Following vibration tests on the Yamanashi maglev test section and studies at the Komaki Research Center, JR Central strengthened countermeasures for structures including elevated sections and station boxes, the underground structures that contain station facilities.

The measures include reinforcement, added damping to reduce movement, and backup capacity in power and control systems. They raise construction costs while supporting safety and a quicker recovery after strong shaking.

Tunneling generates millions of cubic meters of rock and soil, known as spoil. That material must be transported, processed and either reused or disposed of. Cities and mountain valleys offer limited space for storing it temporarily and moving it away.

Part of the plan uses port reclamation sites, including work connected to Shinhommoku Pier in Yokohama. Reusing excavated material can reduce the need for landfill disposal and help limit truck traffic and dust in urban areas. Transport and handling still represent a sizable expense even when the material has a useful destination.

How JR Central plans to finance the line

JR Central says operating cash flow and external financing can cover the higher budget while maintaining financial stability. Operating cash flow is money generated by the company's existing business. External financing would include corporate bonds and loans, which must be repaid with interest.

The company's internal projections assume an interest rate of about 3 percent. Its model for the first full fiscal year after opening includes operating revenue of around 1.64 trillion yen, ordinary profit of about 65 billion yen and outstanding long term debt of about 7.1 trillion yen.

Those figures depend on the railway beginning service around the provisional year of 2035. The opening assumption matters because passenger income starts only after the line enters service, while construction requires spending beforehand.

Fare planning uses a premium of 700 yen over the reserved seat fare on the Nozomi service of the Tokaido Shinkansen. The demand model anticipates passengers transferring from both the existing Shinkansen and domestic air services serving the same cities.

Management has said construction speed would be adjusted if changing conditions made it impossible to maintain sound operations and stable dividends. That gives the company room to respond to further changes in costs, the economy or the timetable, rather than treating the present spending pace as fixed.

What passengers and the wider rail network could gain

A journey of about 40 minutes between Tokyo and Nagoya would change how travelers schedule business meetings, day trips and journeys between home and work. The planned Osaka extension would extend those possibilities across a larger part of Japan's main urban corridor.

The new railway would also provide additional capacity alongside the Tokaido Shinkansen, one of the world's busiest high speed lines. Transferring some passengers to the maglev should free space for more frequent conventional bullet trains.

An inland route would give the network another option when weather or incidents disrupt the coastal railway. Its alignment through mountains is intended to improve resilience against tsunamis and coastal storms, although that choice also moves more construction into sensitive highland environments.

Domestic flights linking the same cities are another expected source of passengers. Rail journeys between city centers can reduce time spent on airport transfers and security procedures. For travelers comparing the complete journey rather than just time aboard a train or plane, those additional steps matter.

Energy consumption per passenger rises at very high speeds. Trains nevertheless use far less energy than aircraft, particularly over short and medium distances. The project therefore brings a speed advantage alongside the energy demands of running trains at more than 500 kilometers per hour.

JR Central's existing Shinkansen operations have recorded zero passenger fatalities from train accidents over six decades. The maglev is intended to meet or exceed that safety standard, making testing, protective systems and certification essential parts of the work before opening.

Water protection and the work still to come

JR Central has proposed sealing techniques, monitoring in real time, and measures to capture and return water where necessary to address concerns around the Oi River. The company has also laid out plans for independent oversight and disclosure of monitoring data.

Local authorities and communities are still negotiating their confidence in those measures. Construction noise, spoil disposal and effects on mountain ecosystems are also under scrutiny. Careful sequencing of work, monitoring and transparent reporting will be central to maintaining local support as building advances.

Tunneling and station excavation continue at several locations. The main tasks include securing access and permits in Shizuoka, completing the deep Southern Alps tunnels and advancing the complex underground stations at Shinagawa and Nagoya.

Once civil works are sealed and railway systems are installed, JR Central will integrate power, signaling and control equipment with the L0 Series trains. Lengthy tests at high speed on the new main line will follow, along with safety certification and government inspections before public service begins.

The 11 trillion yen estimate sets out the financial scale of the Tokyo to Nagoya stage. The provisional 2035 opening assumption helps JR Central arrange funding and sequence construction, while completion still depends on the most difficult tunnels, the Shizuoka section and the work needed to turn finished structures into a functioning railway.

What to Know

• The Tokyo to Nagoya Chuo Shinkansen budget has risen to 11 trillion yen, nearly double the original 5.52 trillion yen estimate.
• The previous estimate was 7.04 trillion yen in 2021. The latest increase is about 56 percent.
• Higher material and labor costs account for about 2.3 trillion yen of the increase, with difficult construction accounting for roughly 1.2 trillion yen.
• Planning includes a buffer for future inflation and roughly 400 billion yen tied to tunnel design revisions.
• JR Central uses 2035 as its earliest provisional opening year for calculations, roughly eight years later than the original timetable.
• Consent remains unresolved for roughly 9 kilometers beneath the Oi River source area in Shizuoka.
• About 90 percent of the 286 kilometer route will be in tunnels. One Southern Alps section is expected to extend about 25 kilometers at depths reaching roughly 1,400 meters.
• Trains are planned to operate at up to 505 kilometers per hour, bringing Tokyo to Nagoya travel to about 40 minutes.
• Financing plans combine operating cash flow, bonds and loans, with an assumed interest rate of about 3 percent.
• The first full fiscal year model includes about 1.64 trillion yen in operating revenue, 65 billion yen in ordinary profit and 7.1 trillion yen in outstanding long term debt.
• Fare planning assumes a 700 yen premium over the Nozomi reserved seat fare.
• The eventual Osaka extension aims for a Tokyo to Osaka journey of around 67 minutes and requires its own reviews, funding and timetable.