ASEAN faces pressure to stay united as US and China rivalry shapes Kuala Lumpur summit

Kuala Lumpur hosts a test of regional unity

ASEAN leaders are gathering in Kuala Lumpur with US President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Li Qiang as tariffs ranging from 10 to 40 percent, maritime disputes and Myanmar's civil war put pressure on Southeast Asia's ability to act together. The summit also brings two planned milestones: welcoming Timor Leste as the bloc's eleventh member and a ceremony marking a peace settlement between Thailand and Cambodia after deadly border clashes this summer.

As of October 27, 2025, the meetings place Malaysia at the centre of diplomacy involving countries that depend heavily on both Washington and Beijing. The United States is Southeast Asia's largest investor, while China is its largest trading partner. Regional leaders want to preserve both relationships without allowing competition between the two powers to dictate their choices.

Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned fellow leaders during a retreat session that ASEAN's relevance depends on its members remaining united. His message addressed the risk that outside pressure could deepen disagreements within the bloc.

Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said ASEAN will be finished if divided and that the bloc must stand together even as great power rivalry intensifies.

Trump and Li bring competing strategic and economic priorities to the summit's meetings and bilateral discussions. ASEAN must also address disputes among its own members, demonstrate progress on Myanmar and keep cooperation moving across countries with different security relationships and economic needs.

The gathering therefore combines opportunities for agreement with unresolved tensions. Timor Leste's planned admission signals ASEAN's growing weight, while the Thailand Cambodia arrangement offers relief after violence. Neither removes the difficult decisions facing leaders over trade, maritime rights and regional crisis management.

Why Southeast Asia wants both powers engaged

ASEAN has spent decades trying to organise regional cooperation while maintaining relationships with all major powers. Its preferred approach is inclusive: countries should be able to work together without joining opposing camps.

Washington describes its Indo Pacific policy in terms of an international order governed by rules and freedom of navigation. Freedom of navigation means ships and aircraft can operate lawfully under the rules that apply to the waters and airspace they use. Beijing stresses economic growth and noninterference while extending its influence through trade, investment and an increasingly capable military.

Southeast Asian countries depend on the United States for investment and security relationships, and on China for trade and growth. Choosing one at the expense of the other would complicate national priorities that often require cooperation with both.

The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo Pacific reflects this preference. It calls for openness, transparency and dialogue without excluding any partner. ASEAN leaders favour practical work on health, climate, infrastructure and digital trade over rigid alignments that divide countries into rival groups.

Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand seek Chinese investment and technology while maintaining security and training links with the United States and its partners. Vietnam and Singapore strengthen defence and economic cooperation with Washington and other regional partners while keeping their economic relationships with China open.

Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar depend more heavily on China, particularly for financing and infrastructure. The Philippines is strengthening security cooperation with the United States under its mutual defence treaty while managing a difficult relationship with Beijing. Those different priorities make agreement inside ASEAN harder, even when members share a desire to avoid being forced to take sides.

Maritime disputes put legal rights under pressure

The South China Sea remains a central security issue in Kuala Lumpur. China's coast guard and maritime militia operate near disputed features, while Southeast Asian countries with competing claims press their rights under international law.

The Philippines faces near daily friction in its exclusive economic zone. Vietnam and Malaysia monitor frequent incursions near their waters. Indonesia has increased patrols north of the Natuna Islands to deter illegal fishing and unauthorised drilling.

An exclusive economic zone extends up to 200 nautical miles from a country's shore and gives it rights over resources in those waters. Most Southeast Asian states cite the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, known as UNCLOS, as the basis for their maritime rights.

China's sweeping map claims, recently updated to a ten dash line, overlap with those zones. A tribunal ruling under UNCLOS rejected China's sweeping claims in 2016. The continuing disagreement over legal rights affects encounters at sea and negotiations between ASEAN and Beijing.

ASEAN and China say they want to accelerate talks on a code of conduct for the South China Sea. The proposed code would establish common rules intended to reduce danger and manage incidents. Negotiations have moved slowly for years, and the gap between the parties' legal positions remains wide. No completion date was given.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang has called for dialogue to manage differences and warned regional leaders against allowing competition to harden into opposing camps.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang told regional leaders that countries should oppose taking sides, oppose bloc confrontation, and avoid a new Cold War.

US security ties and Manila's balancing act

Washington is signalling that it intends to remain present in the region and support its allies. Its stated priorities include freedom of navigation, lawful operations by ships and aircraft, and resistance to efforts to change existing arrangements through coercion.

The United States is strengthening defence and coast guard relationships with several Southeast Asian partners and conducting joint patrols and exercises. US officials describe this engagement as a commitment to international law rather than an attempt to force countries to choose between Washington and Beijing.

The summit's US messaging echoes past statements about defending legal rules at sea. US Vice President Kamala Harris previously set out Washington's commitment to working with Southeast Asian countries on maritime security.

US Vice President Kamala Harris reaffirmed that the US will work with Southeast Asia to uphold the rules based international order, including in the South China Sea, and will respond to unlawful maritime claims and provocative actions.

The Philippines has expanded access for US forces under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement and increased joint patrols. Manila has also reiterated that its mutual defence treaty with Washington applies to armed attacks on Philippine forces or public vessels in the South China Sea.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has sought to defend Philippine maritime rights while avoiding conflict. His position reflects the difficulty of maintaining economic relations with China when confrontations occur at Second Thomas Shoal or near Scarborough Shoal.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the Philippines does not seek conflict, but has a duty to meet any challenge to its sovereignty.

For Manila, security cooperation and trade relationships must be managed at the same time. Its closer relationship with Washington sits alongside its desire to keep economic ties with Beijing, making each maritime confrontation a diplomatic challenge as well as a security concern.

Tariffs reach across regional factories

ASEAN's economic concerns are closely connected to the trade dispute between the United States and China. Tariffs and export controls affect supply chains that stretch across several Southeast Asian countries before finished goods reach overseas buyers.

A tariff is a tax on imported goods. Higher US tariffs can make products shipped from Southeast Asia more expensive in the American market, weakening demand and complicating decisions about where companies should invest.

ASEAN economies depend heavily on exports and are integrated into global manufacturing networks. Restrictions on advanced semiconductors and key equipment affect businesses that assemble or test components in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Export controls limit which goods or technologies can be sold abroad, affecting access to inputs as well as finished products.

The Kuala Lumpur summit includes an unusual joint economic session examining trade exposure and the effects of tariff measures ranging from 10 to 40 percent. Several ASEAN governments have pursued bilateral agreements to soften the shock of those measures.

Such agreements can give individual countries some breathing room, but ASEAN leaders are also considering how to protect trade and investment across the region. A factory's decisions can affect suppliers and workers in several countries, so changes in one trade relationship can travel through an entire production network.

Many members want Washington to match its security engagement with a constructive economic agenda. Digital trade standards, access to services markets and infrastructure finance have emerged as areas where cooperation could support growth without requiring countries to align with one major power against another.

RCEP and rare earths shape the trade discussion

The first in person gathering of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership participants since 2020 is taking place alongside the summit. RCEP brings together ASEAN with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

The agreement aims to harmonise tariffs and rules of origin. Rules of origin determine where a product counts as having been made, which matters when parts come from several countries and businesses seek the tariff treatment available under a trade agreement.

Chinese Premier Li has used the meetings to argue for open trade, resistance to protectionism and further work to implement and expand RCEP. Protectionism involves measures that shield domestic businesses from foreign competition, including restrictions that can make international trade more difficult.

China's control over rare earth supplies adds another pressure point to trade negotiations. These materials are essential to electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing, giving Beijing influence over industries that depend on a reliable supply.

Regional partners want to diversify their supply chains, improve transparency and reduce dependence on a single supplier while keeping markets open where possible. For manufacturers, that means trying to secure dependable access to materials and components without losing the benefits of existing trade relationships.

ASEAN's trade arrangements, including the ASEAN Free Trade Area and RCEP, provide ways to keep commerce moving as protectionism grows. The summit's economic discussions connect those regional tools with the immediate problems created by tariffs, technology restrictions and uncertainty over future investment.

Myanmar tests ASEAN's crisis response

Myanmar's civil war is destabilising border areas, displacing civilians and fuelling criminal networks that extend into neighbouring countries. The conflict puts ASEAN's ability to manage a crisis within its own membership under sustained pressure.

ASEAN's Five Point Consensus calls for an end to violence, humanitarian assistance and inclusive dialogue among all parties. Implementation has lagged, and frustration has grown across regional capitals as the conflict continues.

Singapore has urged ASEAN to maintain a principled approach. Prime Minister Wong has called for a reduction in violence, access for humanitarian assistance and continued engagement with all key stakeholders in Myanmar.

Wong also supports extending the mandate of the ASEAN Special Envoy so diplomacy can continue. Sustained engagement matters because efforts to deliver aid and bring parties into dialogue require contact across a deeply divided conflict.

ASEAN's tradition of avoiding interference in members' internal affairs makes these decisions sensitive. Myanmar's war nevertheless affects people beyond its borders through displacement, insecurity and crime, creating pressure for a regional response.

The Myanmar discussions connect directly to Wong's warning about unity. Members must find enough common ground to maintain diplomacy and humanitarian efforts while differing over how far ASEAN should go in responding to a member's internal crisis.

A border settlement and an eleventh member

Thailand and Cambodia's planned peace ceremony provides a more hopeful element of the summit after their deadly border flare up this summer. Malaysia is serving as a convenor, using personal relationships at the highest level to help guide the arrangement.

Trump's presence at the signing is expected to give the occasion greater visibility. The ceremony places a dispute between ASEAN members alongside the broader talks on competition between major powers.

Timor Leste's formal welcome as ASEAN's eleventh member is another planned milestone. Its admission underscores the bloc's growing regional weight at a gathering where leaders are trying to show that ASEAN can remain cohesive despite different national interests.

The main sequence of developments surrounding the summit is:

• In 2016, a tribunal ruling under UNCLOS rejected China's sweeping South China Sea claims, a legal dispute that continues to affect maritime tensions.
• In 2020, RCEP provided the reference point for the first subsequent in person gathering of its participants alongside the Kuala Lumpur summit.
• This summer, deadly border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia preceded the peace arrangement being marked in Kuala Lumpur.
• As of October 27, 2025, the summit agenda includes Timor Leste's formal welcome, the planned peace ceremony, maritime negotiations and talks on trade pressures.

Malaysia's role connects these developments with its wider effort to keep ASEAN engaged with both Washington and Beijing. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has described neutrality as a deliberate choice grounded in the region's interests.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said ASEAN will engage with both the United States and China and is not tilting in any way, adding that maintaining good relations with both powers makes sense for the region.

Different national interests shape a shared position

Indonesia works with the United States on defence capacity and training, supports freedom of navigation and promotes processes led by ASEAN. It also cooperates with China on infrastructure and trade, while seeking foreign investment for its electric vehicle and battery industries.

Malaysia follows a similar approach, signalling neutrality while expanding trade and investment with both powers. Thailand also combines economic engagement with China with security and training relationships involving the United States and its partners.

Vietnam is expanding defence dialogue with the United States, Japan, India and Australia, engaging European partners and building its domestic industrial base. At the same time, it manages a complex relationship with China involving both extensive trade and maritime disputes.

Singapore sees a strong US presence as important for regional balance and continues to welcome trade and investment from China. Cambodia and Laos rely heavily on Chinese financing and political support, while Myanmar's dependence on China has increased as its relationships with Western countries have weakened.

Geography, history, economic ties and domestic politics help explain these different positions. ASEAN members are making practical national calculations rather than following a single ideological divide. Their shared challenge is to preserve cooperation across those differences.

Regional influence depends on practical results

ASEAN centrality means the bloc seeks to set the regional agenda and bring outside partners together around common interests. Trump and Li's presence shows its continuing value as a meeting place, while the summit tests its ability to manage internal disagreements and keep rivals talking.

Scholars and practitioners in Kuala Lumpur have identified two requirements for ASEAN's continuing relevance: unity around basic principles, including international law at sea and peaceful dispute resolution, and practical results that matter to citizens.

Connectivity, the green economy, digital standards and public health are among the areas where leaders face calls to turn discussions into action. These priorities connect diplomacy with how people travel, work, trade and access services.

Malaysia's chairmanship theme of inclusivity and sustainability points towards that practical agenda. The summit's success depends on more than bringing powerful visitors into the same room; members also need to keep their own cooperation functioning across security disputes and economic pressures.

Professor Zainal Abidin Sanusi framed ASEAN's value around its ability to bring countries together while maintaining unity and shared principles.

Professor Zainal Abidin Sanusi said ASEAN's strength lies not in taking sides, but in building bridges, and that its unity and values based leadership will determine its relevance for the next generation.

Kuala Lumpur brings those priorities together. ASEAN is trying to preserve relations with its largest investor and largest trading partner, respond to conflict within its membership and protect the economic networks on which its countries depend.

What to Know

• Donald Trump and Li Qiang are attending the Kuala Lumpur summit as ASEAN faces pressure from US China competition.
• Timor Leste is to be welcomed as ASEAN's eleventh member, alongside a planned ceremony marking the Thailand Cambodia peace settlement.
• South China Sea talks focus on maritime rights, international law and a code of conduct whose negotiations have moved slowly.
• Tariff measures ranging from 10 to 40 percent and technology export controls are affecting regional manufacturing and investment decisions.
• RCEP participants are meeting in person for the first time since 2020 to discuss regional trade cooperation.
• Myanmar's civil war continues to test ASEAN's Five Point Consensus and its efforts on humanitarian aid and dialogue.
• ASEAN members pursue different relationships with Washington and Beijing while seeking to avoid a forced choice.
• Regional unity and practical progress on trade, connectivity, digital standards, the green economy and public health remain central to ASEAN's role.