Japan's Rising Food Prices Push Inflation to the Top of Household Concerns

Rising prices put pressure on the family table

Roughly 73 percent of adults in a Cabinet Office survey want Japan's government to prioritize measures to curb rising prices, up from 66.1 percent in the same survey last year. The survey covered 2,729 adults from August 7 to September 14, capturing mounting concern about the cost of daily life as food prices climb faster than consumer prices as a whole.

The increase amounts to about 6.9 percentage points. Anxiety about the general price level and dissatisfaction with the household food situation are at, or close to, historic highs last seen after the 1973 oil shock. For families trying to keep meals affordable, inflation is becoming a question of what they can put on the table.

Consumer prices are rising by more than 3 percent a year. Wages have improved in some sectors, yet many households say their take home pay cannot keep pace with the checkout total. The gap is especially painful for necessities such as groceries, which families must keep buying even when their budgets are stretched.

Two years of energy and import shocks, a weaker yen and an uneven recovery in domestic demand help explain the growing appetite for government action. A weaker yen makes commodities bought abroad more expensive in Japanese currency, adding costs that can travel through the food supply chain to supermarket shelves.

The concern also reaches beyond today's shopping bill. When households expect prices to keep rising, they may change when they buy, how much they save and what pay increases they seek. Those responses can help temporary price pressures last longer, particularly when food, transport and utilities become more expensive together.

What the inflation figures show

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications recorded a 3.2 percent increase in consumer prices excluding fresh food in January 2025 compared with a year earlier. By May, that measure had reached 3.7 percent, its fastest pace in about two years. A separate measure excluding both fresh food and energy stood at 2.9 percent in March.

These measures remove selected categories to help track price movements across the rest of the economy. Japan's measure excluding fresh food still includes energy, so changes in household energy bills can affect it. The fading of some temporary support, including subsidies that restrained those bills, helped push inflation higher.

Rice recorded one of the sharpest increases: its price more than doubled in May compared with a year earlier. Service prices rose 1.4 percent, a slower rate than the broader measure but still faster than a year earlier. Food was again a central driver of inflation.

The developments unfolded across several months:

• January 2025: Inflation excluding fresh food reached 3.2 percent, and the Bank of Japan raised its short term policy rate to 0.5 percent.
• February 6 to March 4: The Bank of Japan conducted its nationwide survey of household opinions, including expectations about future prices.
• March: Inflation excluding both fresh food and energy stood at 2.9 percent.
• May: Inflation excluding fresh food reached 3.7 percent, while rice prices more than doubled compared with a year earlier.
• July: Food makers planned increases for 2,105 products, averaging about 15 percent.
• August 7 to September 14: The Cabinet Office surveyed 2,729 adults about their concerns and priorities.

Why food companies are raising prices

A Teikoku Databank survey of 195 major food makers recorded planned price increases for 2,105 items in July, five times the number a year earlier. The average planned increase was about 15 percent. Companies cited higher raw material, utility, transport and labor costs.

The products affected included foods made from rice, chocolate, chewing gum, potato chips and pasta sauce. The breadth of that list shows why switching away from one expensive product may leave a household facing increases elsewhere in its basket.

Ajinomoto AGF said it would raise retail coffee prices by roughly 25 to 55 percent. Meiji planned increases of up to 11 percent for cheese and milk. These company changes sit alongside the wider pressure on staple foods, making the squeeze visible across drinks, dairy products, snacks and ingredients for meals.

Weather also contributed to supply pressures. Strain associated with weather reduced harvest quality in parts of Japan last year, while a rebound in tourism increased demand for restaurant staples. Together, supply and demand pressures added to the expenses companies were already facing.

The weaker yen raised the local currency cost of imported grain, cooking oil and animal feed. Animal feed is an expense further back in the food chain, but an increase there can add to the cost of producing food. A sustained rise in crude oil prices could also increase packaging, shipping and fertilizer expenses, creating the conditions for another round of price increases.

What dissatisfaction with food means

The Cabinet Office's food situation measure asks households how satisfied they are with the quality, quantity and variety of meals they can afford. Dissatisfaction is hovering around record levels, giving a more personal picture of inflation than a national price index alone.

Families are trimming portions, moving to cheaper brands and dropping favorite items to make their budgets work. A shopping bill can stay within its usual limit while the food it buys becomes less varied or the quantities become smaller. That helps explain why household discomfort can grow even when people find ways to control spending.

Persistent high prices also bring concern about whether basic diets will become less nutritious and less varied. Single parent households and elderly people living alone are among those facing this worry. For them, the pressure involves both paying for today's meals and maintaining an affordable diet over time.

Low income families face the sharpest squeeze

A Save the Children survey found that more than 90 percent of low income households struggled to afford food for their children. About 60 percent reported cutting back on, or stopping, purchases of staples such as rice.

The survey covered 7,850 households, including roughly 14,000 children. Monthly incomes were around 112,200 yen for a family of two and 151,000 yen for a family of four. At those income levels, increases in essential food costs quickly reduce the money available for other household needs.

Rice is particularly important in this picture. Its price more than doubled in May compared with a year earlier, while about six in 10 low income households in the charity's survey were reducing or stopping purchases of staples such as rice. Those figures show the pressure from rising prices alongside the changes vulnerable families are making to their food spending.

The survey gives a concrete view of the burden at the lower end of the income scale. For households already struggling to feed children, a price rise is a decision about which foods remain affordable and how far each purchase must stretch.

Why better wages have not ended the pressure

Japan's labor market remains tight, and wage settlements have improved compared with the years when inflation was near zero. The OECD projects that wage growth will gain momentum. Many families nevertheless continue to find that prices are increasing faster than their pay.

Purchasing power is the amount a household can buy with its income. A pay rise improves that power only when it is sufficient to cover the increase in the cost of what the household needs. Families whose grocery bills rise faster than their wages can feel poorer even as their earnings increase.

The Bank of Japan's nationwide opinion survey, conducted from February 6 to March 4, found that respondents expected inflation to average 12.2 percent over the coming year. That was up from 11.5 percent three months earlier. About 86.7 percent expected prices to be higher a year later.

The 12.2 percent figure describes respondents' expectations, while the ministry's consumer price figures measure recorded changes in prices. Expectations matter because households may bring purchases forward and workers may seek higher wages. Firms also adjust their decisions as expectations rise, potentially keeping inflation elevated.

How the government and central bank are responding

The government moved to release 210,000 metric tons of stockpiled rice to ease distribution problems and stabilize prices. Making stored rice available is intended to relieve pressure on supply and help stabilize the price of packaged rice.

Utility support programs and temporary tax relief have offset part of the increase in household costs. Local authorities have also directed extra assistance toward residents with low incomes. These measures address different parts of the squeeze: the supply of an essential food, energy bills and the budgets of people with the least room to absorb higher prices.

The Bank of Japan raised its short term policy rate to 0.5 percent in January. It has signaled that further moves will be gradual until inflation is supported by stronger consumption and steady wage gains rather than shocks to imported costs.

The central bank is trying to keep inflation near its target while avoiding a sharp blow to growth. A rise in prices driven by more expensive imported food and fuel places households under pressure; stronger wages and consumption would provide a different basis for sustained inflation. No date was given for a further rate move.

Policymakers are also watching volatile energy markets and the possibility of new trade barriers, both of which can raise import costs. A weaker yen adds to that exposure by making foreign goods and production inputs more expensive in Japanese currency.

How households are stretching their shopping budgets

Households are changing shopping and cooking habits to keep meals affordable and balanced. Adjustments visible in supermarkets and surveys range from choosing cheaper brands to changing the ingredients used in everyday meals.

• Moving to private label goods and larger value packs.
• Buying seasonal produce and locally sourced items when they are cheaper.
• Stocking up during promotions and using loyalty points.
• Choosing more frozen or canned foods to reduce waste.
• Cooking at home more often and planning menus for the week.
• Shifting protein choices toward eggs, tofu and chicken.
• Mixing rice with other grains to manage the cost of each serving.

These changes tackle several pressures at once. Choosing a cheaper product addresses its price, while reducing waste helps a household get more meals from the food it has already bought. Menu planning and changes in protein choices are further ways families are adjusting their spending.

What could make food more affordable

A firmer yen would lower the local currency cost of imported food and fuel. Better harvests would help ease pressure on rice and vegetables, while the planned release of government rice stocks should help stabilize packaged rice prices.

Companies that made price increases earlier may slow the pace of further rises as previous cost shocks fade. That would reduce the speed at which household bills grow, although families would still have to manage the prices already in place.

Faster wage growth would also improve purchasing power. If incomes continue to gain momentum, households could feel less pressure even with inflation near current levels. The central issue is whether pay stretches far enough to cover necessities, especially food.

As of September 28, 2025, the Cabinet Office survey shows how strongly that concern is shaping public priorities. Roughly three quarters of respondents want action on rising prices, while the figures on rice, planned food increases and low income families explain why household kitchens are at the center of the debate.

Key Points

• Roughly 73 percent of 2,729 adults surveyed by the Cabinet Office wanted action on rising prices, up from 66.1 percent last year.
• Concern about prices and dissatisfaction with household food conditions were at, or close to, historic highs last seen after the 1973 oil shock.
• Inflation excluding fresh food rose from 3.2 percent in January to 3.7 percent in May 2025.
• Rice prices more than doubled in May compared with a year earlier.
• A survey of 195 food makers recorded planned July increases for 2,105 items, averaging about 15 percent.
• More than 90 percent of low income households surveyed by Save the Children struggled to afford food for their children.
• Bank of Japan survey respondents expected average inflation of 12.2 percent over the coming year; 86.7 percent expected higher prices.
• The government moved to release 210,000 metric tons of stockpiled rice and provided support through utility programs, temporary tax relief and local assistance.
• The Bank of Japan raised its short term policy rate to 0.5 percent in January and signaled a gradual approach to further moves.