Japan and Taiwan Sign Rare Immigration Pact to Prepare for Possible Crisis Evacuations

A confidential agreement prepares for a sudden movement of civilians

Japan and Taiwan have signed a rare immigration information agreement intended to help Japanese authorities screen people arriving from Taiwan during a possible emergency. About 21,700 Japanese nationals were living in Taiwan as of October 2024, according to Japan's Foreign Ministry, while a wider evacuation could also bring large numbers of Taiwanese and other foreign nationals to Japan.

The Japan Taiwan Exchange Association and the Taiwan Japan Relations Association signed the accord on December 18. Formally titled a memorandum of cooperation on sharing information regarding matters related to immigration control, it provides a channel for exchanging information about foreign nationals seeking entry into Japan from Taiwan.

The memorandum's contents remain confidential. Multiple Japanese sources describe its purpose as preventing spies and violent actors from entering Japan among evacuees, while helping people seeking safety move through border checks in an orderly way. The arrangement also provides for checks before departure at Taiwanese airports for passengers traveling to Japan during normal times.

Japan and Taiwan have no formal diplomatic relations, making the agreement unusual. Tokyo recognized Beijing in 1972, and its practical dealings with Taipei run through a private association that functions as a de facto embassy. The two representative organizations allow cooperation on border procedures without changing either side's political position.

The pact forms part of broader preparations for a possible Taiwan emergency. Japan is planning how to evacuate its own southwestern islands, coordinate transport with partner countries and manage arrivals from across the East China Sea. Each task involves different authorities, but all depend on advance decisions about who can travel, where they can go and how officials will check their identities.

What the immigration memorandum would change

Japanese authorities would receive information from Taiwan to help identify foreign nationals who may present a security risk before they reach Japan. During an evacuation, this could allow officials to direct flagged passengers into additional screening while processing other travelers more quickly.

Screening generally involves checking passenger information against watchlists and immigration records, confirming identities and examining travel documents. People whose details trigger a warning may face further questions or a secondary inspection. The precise information to be exchanged and the detailed procedures under this memorandum have not been made public.

Checks before departure move part of the work to Taiwanese airports. Japanese planners want to reduce congestion at arrival halls if airlines rapidly add flights during a crisis. A wider evacuation could also involve ferries, increasing the number of people reaching Japanese entry points over a short period.

During normal travel, the checks are expected to be light and targeted. Comparable arrangements focus on identity verification, document checks and the advance transfer of passenger information. Establishing a routine procedure would give authorities experience working together before they face the pressure of an emergency.

Japan's Immigration Services Agency already maintains technical memorandums with partners including Australia and New Zealand. Those arrangements address matters such as overstayers and document fraud. The Taiwan agreement is unusual because it anticipates a sudden movement of evacuees, including Japanese nationals, Taiwanese residents and other foreign nationals.

Why officials are concerned about infiltration

Japanese officials fear that a hurried evacuation could provide cover for intelligence agents or people planning violence. Large movements of civilians can be difficult to organize, particularly when authorities must balance urgent departures with identity checks.

A Japanese government source described the concern about Chinese agents entering alongside people escaping danger:

Chinese agents could enter Japan by concealing themselves among Taiwanese nationals.

The memorandum is intended to give border authorities information they can use to identify people considered a security risk. Its other practical purpose is to preserve orderly routes for civilians who need help. Most evacuees would be seeking safety, while officials would need a process for examining the smaller number of cases that raise concerns.

Intelligence services and violent actors have exploited population movements during past conflicts by blending into vulnerable crowds. Japan's preparations seek to address that possibility before officials face crowded departure areas, rapidly changing transport schedules and pressure to admit people quickly.

Military pressure gives the planning urgency

China has increased air and sea activity around Taiwan and expanded military exercises that simulate blockades. Recent large drills have also practiced encirclement and missile strike scenarios, drawing concern in Tokyo and Washington.

Some analysts in Japan say Beijing could be prepared for an attack as early as 2027. That assessment has added urgency to discussions about civilian protection, transport capacity and border management.

A blockade would create its own evacuation problems. If access to air and sea routes narrowed, governments would have fewer ways to move people out, even as demand for seats increased. Preparations therefore extend beyond arranging aircraft or ships to include coordination over the routes those aircraft and ships would use.

Think tank reporting in early 2025 noted that Beijing had criticized parts of Japan's evacuation planning for its southern islands. Civilian preparations have consequently become part of the region's political tensions as well as its emergency planning.

Japanese officials have presented the Taiwan memorandum as a safety and border control measure. Japan's official position on Taiwan's status remains unchanged. The practical aim is to prepare for civilian movements while maintaining the diplomatic framework Tokyo has followed for decades.

Japan plans to move 120,000 people from nearby islands

Japan has announced a plan to evacuate about 120,000 people from Okinawa Prefecture's Sakishima island group if armed attacks are predicted. The total comprises roughly 110,000 residents and 10,000 visitors.

The plan covers Ishigaki, Miyako, Taketomi, Yonaguni and Tarama. Aircraft and ferries would move people off the islands within six days. That timetable amounts to an average of about 20,000 people a day, calculated from the planned total of 120,000.

Evacuees would initially travel to Kyushu, including through Fukuoka and Kagoshima airports, and by sea to Yamaguchi and other destinations. They would then move to designated accommodation across eight prefectures in southwestern and western Japan.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi described the outline as a practical basis for further discussions about moving residents safely. He said the government prepared it under a particular assumption:

on the assumption [Japan will encounter] a situation where armed attacks are predicted

The island plan and the Taiwan immigration memorandum address different movements of people. One concerns moving residents and visitors away from exposed Japanese islands. The other concerns screening people arriving in Japan from Taiwan. Both would place demands on transport, reception facilities and government coordination during a regional emergency.

Local preparations include shelters and longer stays

Yonaguni lies only about 100 kilometers from Taiwan and has a Self Defense Forces base. Temporary underground shelters stocked with food and water are being built there, while Japan has also discussed new missile deployments across its southwest.

Okinawa hosts a large United States military presence, described as almost 50,000 troops. That presence would be central to logistics and deterrence during a Taiwan emergency, alongside Japan's own preparations for protecting civilians.

Evacuation drills in Okinawa are planned for fiscal 2026. The government intends to prepare for different needs, from quickly transferring healthy residents to supporting people who require accessible transport, medical care or other assistance.

Leaving an island would be only the first stage. Japan is also considering how to provide food, medical services and accommodation if people remain away from home for longer than a month. A short journey to safety could therefore lead to a much longer period of support in receiving communities.

The figures illustrate the scale of that responsibility. The plan must account for residents and visitors, several departure islands, flights and ferries, and onward travel to accommodation across eight prefectures. Delays at any stage could affect the pace at which people leave the islands.

Australia and South Korea feature in wider evacuation cooperation

Tokyo and Canberra plan to sign a memorandum allowing Japan and Australia to accept each other's citizens during evacuations from third countries. The arrangement would include sharing emergency information and coordinating plans during normal times.

Australia would become Japan's second partner after South Korea in this type of evacuation cooperation. The approach would let each country use spare seats on chartered aircraft or buses to carry the other's citizens.

An aircraft departing with empty seats represents transport capacity that may be difficult to replace during a crisis. Advance agreements can help officials decide how to use those seats while passengers still have a chance to reach the departure point.

Japan's wider preparations involve cooperation with the United States, Australia, South Korea and Southeast Asian partners. Air and sea corridors depend on regional consent and available capacity, making coordination between governments part of the evacuation process itself.

A Singapore exercise examined a much larger evacuation

A war game held over two days in Singapore brought together officials and security scholars to simulate a blockade around Taiwan. Participants examined how Southeast Asian governments might evacuate their nationals if transport routes came under pressure.

The exercise concluded that those governments would probably rely on an airlift led by Singapore to evacuate up to one million people. The scenario pointed to the scale of aircraft, scheduling and cooperation that could be required.

Participants identified the value of arranging evacuation corridors in advance, with coordination involving the United States, Japan and China. Those arrangements would matter because a plane assigned to an evacuation still needs a usable route, access to an airport and a destination able to receive its passengers.

The exercise also illustrates why Japan's border preparations sit within a broader regional problem. Japanese residents in Taiwan would be one group needing help, alongside Taiwanese civilians and nationals of many other countries. Several governments could be seeking transport through the same limited routes at the same time.

What passengers could encounter at airports

Travelers departing Taiwan for Japan during a crisis could encounter additional identity verification, scans of travel documents and questions for some passengers. The most visible change would be that more checking takes place before departure.

Japanese authorities want to reduce pressure on arrival terminals and direct cases requiring closer examination into secondary screening. For other evacuees, completing some checks earlier could help keep the arrival process moving when passenger numbers rise sharply.

During ordinary travel, checks associated with the memorandum are expected to be limited and targeted. The associations have declined to release operational details, a practice commonly used in security programs that depend partly on keeping their methods confidential.

Japan's laws provide a framework for protecting personal information held by the government, and immigration authorities routinely handle sensitive data under statutory limits. Privacy will be a central concern as authorities put the procedures into practice, alongside the need to identify travelers and assess security risks.

For civilians, the practical stakes are access to transport and an orderly reception on arrival. Authorities would need to process people rapidly enough to support evacuation flights while retaining the ability to examine individual cases that require more attention.

The diplomatic channel and the planning timeline

The Japan Taiwan Exchange Association serves as Japan's channel for everyday relations with Taipei, while the Taiwan Japan Relations Association acts as its counterpart. Their agreements can reflect government policy while operating within the framework created after Japan ended formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1972.

The immigration memorandum uses that established channel for a different kind of preparation. Technical cooperation can give officials procedures to follow before a crisis, while leaving the broader diplomatic positions of Japan and Taiwan unchanged.

The key dates and planning milestones show how the border agreement fits alongside Japan's other preparations:

• 1972: Tokyo recognized Beijing and ended formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
• October 2024: Japan's Foreign Ministry recorded about 21,700 Japanese nationals living in Taiwan.
• December 18: The Japan Taiwan Exchange Association and the Taiwan Japan Relations Association signed the confidential immigration information memorandum.
• Early 2025: Think tank reporting noted Chinese criticism of parts of Japan's southern island evacuation planning.
• Fiscal 2026: Okinawa evacuation drills are planned.
• 2027: Some analysts in Japan identify this as the earliest year by which Beijing could be prepared for an attack.

Japan's preparations connect several concrete tasks: checking passengers before they travel, moving people away from exposed islands, finding accommodation after evacuation and sharing scarce transport with partners. The Taiwan memorandum addresses the information needed at the border, while the island plan and international arrangements address how people would reach safety and receive support afterward.

The Bottom Line

• Japan and Taiwan signed a confidential immigration information memorandum on December 18 through their representative associations.
• The arrangement is intended to support screening of foreign nationals arriving from Taiwan during a crisis and provide checks before departure during normal travel.
• Japanese officials want to prevent infiltration by spies or violent actors while maintaining orderly passage for civilians.
• About 21,700 Japanese nationals lived in Taiwan as of October 2024, according to Japan's Foreign Ministry.
• Japan plans to evacuate roughly 110,000 residents and 10,000 visitors from the Sakishima islands within six days if armed attacks are predicted.
• Receiving arrangements span eight prefectures, with preparations also covering medical care, accessible transport and stays lasting longer than a month.
• Okinawa evacuation drills are planned for fiscal 2026, while Japan and Australia plan further cooperation on evacuating each other's citizens.
• A Singapore simulation examined an airlift for up to one million Southeast Asian nationals, illustrating the wider regional demand for evacuation transport.