Russian Missile Strike Scenario for Japan Highlights Rising Tensions in Northeast Asia

A Hypothetical Campaign Names Japan's Bases and Shipyards

Russian military analysts have outlined a hypothetical missile campaign against Japan involving attacks on air defenses, radar stations, naval bases and shipyards. The scenario estimates a strike package of 200 to 250 Kh-101 cruise missiles and names facilities from Hakodate in Hokkaido to Nagasaki in southwestern Japan.

Published by the pro-Kremlin outlet Voennaya Khronika, the analysis describes several stages intended to weaken Japan's ability to detect attacks, intercept missiles, operate warships and maintain its naval strength. It also discusses critical civilian infrastructure. As of August 1, 2025, the campaign remains a theoretical scenario, with no date given for any such operation.

Japan's expanding missile capabilities and closer defense cooperation with the United States form the setting for the analysis. Moscow views those developments as threats to its eastern territories. Russian officials have warned of retaliation if American missiles are stationed in Japan, while Russian forces have conducted exercises near Japanese waters and the disputed Northern Territories, known in Russia as the Southern Kuril Islands.

The scenario has alarmed regional security specialists because of its technical detail and its discussion of offensive operations against Japan, a country aligned with NATO partners. Its publication also draws attention to older Russian military planning: leaked documents from 2013 and 2014 listed 160 potential targets across Japan and South Korea, including military facilities and civilian infrastructure.

For Japan, the concerns involve both military readiness and the functioning of everyday life. Radar stations help provide warning of incoming attacks, shipyards support naval operations, and transport routes and energy facilities keep communities and military logistics running. The locations named in the older documents show how widely disruption could spread during a conflict.

Why Japan's Missile Plans Have Drawn Russian Warnings

Japan's development and deployment of advanced missile systems are the immediate focus of the Russian scenario. The analysis points to Japan's domestically produced Type 12 missile and the American MRC Typhon system as part of a growing threat perceived by Moscow. Russian officials have separately framed their warnings around the possibility of future American missile deployments on Japanese territory.

Hokkaido has become a particular focus because Japan decided to conduct its first domestic missile firing tests there. Japan previously held such exercises abroad. Bringing them home represents a step toward greater military readiness and the ability to conduct training without relying on overseas ranges.

The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's planned exercise uses the Type 88 surface-to-ship missile, developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Its range is about 100 kilometers, and it is being succeeded by the more advanced Type 12. A surface-to-ship missile is launched from land against a vessel at sea, giving ground forces a role in defending coastal waters.

Russia has protested the drills as unacceptable and announced exercises of its own near the disputed islands. North Korea has also objected. Its state media described the planned missile drill as evidence that Japan was preparing for a surprise preemptive attack on neighboring countries.

Tokyo's military changes are taking place amid pressure from China's military expansion, North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, and Russia's renewed assertiveness in Northeast Asia. Japan's response includes higher defense spending, new weapons and deeper cooperation with the United States and other partners. Those same measures have sharpened mistrust among its neighbors.

How the Three Stages Would Unfold

The Russian analysts describe a campaign that would first attack Japan's defenses, then its naval operating bases, and finally facilities supporting the production and maintenance of warships. The proposed sequence aims to reduce Japan's ability to protect itself before attacking the infrastructure needed to sustain military operations.

The first stage names Patriot PAC-3 air and missile defense batteries at Hakodate, Iruma and Gifu. The analysts estimate that disabling each site would require 25 to 45 cruise missiles or 10 to 12 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, with the aim of getting enough weapons past interception.

Simultaneous attacks would target early warning radar stations. The scenario identifies J/FPS-3UG installations at Tobetsu and Kyogamisaki and the J/FPS-4 radar at Mt. Tokao, assigning approximately seven Kh-101 missiles to each site. Radar provides the information needed to detect approaching threats and organize a defensive response.

The second stage would strike the naval bases at Maizuru and Ominato. The analysts assign 20 to 25 Kalibr cruise missiles to each base, seeking to cripple Japan's ability to conduct operations at sea.

The third stage names Mitsubishi Heavy Industries shipyards in Nagasaki, Kobe, Shimonoseki and Yokohama. The facilities are described as important to Japan's maritime strength and support for American naval assets in the region. Damage there would affect the industrial work that helps keep ships available for service.

The estimated package totals 200 to 250 Kh-101 missiles, although the analysts suggest that using Kinzhal missiles could reduce the number required. They draw on Russia's experience in Ukraine, claiming that methods developed to overwhelm modern missile defenses could be applied in a conflict with Japan. The estimates are the analysts' proposed requirements for the hypothetical campaign.

Older Documents List 160 Potential Targets

Leaked Russian documents dating from 2013 and 2014 describe preparations for a potential war with Japan and South Korea. The leaked Russian target lists identify 160 locations across the two countries, selected to disrupt troop movements and logistics.

The military targets include headquarters, radar installations, air bases and naval facilities. Civilian targets include nuclear power plants, road and rail tunnels, and energy complexes. Attacks on those facilities would reach beyond military units to the transport and power networks used by the wider population.

The documents discuss the Kh-101 cruise missile equipped with a conventional, non-nuclear warhead. They also contain precise measurements and photographs of Japanese radar bases, indicating detailed reconnaissance and preparation. Although the records are more than a decade old, their relevance has attracted renewed attention as Moscow's concerns about its eastern border have intensified during the Ukraine war and expanding American cooperation with Japan.

William Alberque, a former NATO arms control official, connected the documents with the deployment of North Korean troops in support of Russia's war in Ukraine:

The leaked documents and the recent deployment of troops from North Korea prove that the European and Asian theaters of war are directly and inextricably linked. Asia cannot stand aside from a conflict in Europe, nor can Europe stand by and watch if war breaks out in Asia.

Japan's Defense Changes Reach Beyond Missile Tests

Japan updated its National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program in 2022. Together, those policies mark a shift toward a more proactive defense posture, the acquisition of counterstrike capabilities and closer integration with American and allied forces.

The new national security strategy places those changes within Japan's response to a worsening security environment. Counterstrike capabilities give Japan the means to respond to an attack by striking targets farther away, rather than relying solely on intercepting weapons approaching its territory.

Japan is acquiring 400 American Tomahawk cruise missiles. Its longer range missile plans also include an upgraded Type 12 and new ballistic missiles capable of traveling at high velocity. These programs expand the distances at which Japanese forces could act.

The government has committed to doubling defense spending by 2027, with the defense budget set to reach 2 percent of gross domestic product. That spending level is expected to make Japan the world's third largest military spender after the United States and China. Gross domestic product measures the value of goods and services produced by an economy, providing a way to compare defense spending with national economic size.

Japan's military transformation also includes agreements with the Philippines, the United Kingdom and Australia, along with joint projects such as the Global Combat Air Programme. In October 2024, Japan signed a tailored partnership program with NATO, bringing its defense planning into closer contact with Western allies.

Russia Couples Exercises With Official Threats

Russian military activity near Japan gives the diplomatic warnings a practical setting. Exercises have included launches of Kalibr cruise missiles from submarines in the Sea of Japan. A submarine missile exercise involving the Ufa forms part of that pattern of demonstrating capability and sending a signal to Tokyo and its allies.

Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for Russia's Foreign Ministry, warned that American missiles in Japan would force Moscow to strengthen its defenses. Her missile deployment warning on November 27, 2024, framed the possible deployment as a direct security threat:

If American medium-range missiles appear on Japanese territory, it would pose a real threat to Russia's security and force Russia to strengthen its defense capability.

Zakharova referred to Russia's updated nuclear doctrine, which includes more circumstances in which nuclear weapons could be used. She also suggested that Moscow would respond symmetrically to American missile deployments in Asia, meaning it could answer a deployment with a comparable military move.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia would consider deploying its own missiles of short and intermediate range in Asia if the United States did so. He declined to identify possible locations. The official warnings therefore describe a conditional response to American deployments, while the analysts' scenario sets out hypothetical attacks on Japanese facilities.

Missile Numbers Meet the Limits of Defense

The Kh-101 cruise missile is central to both the recent scenario and the older planning documents. With a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, it has been used extensively in Ukraine. A cruise missile travels toward its target under powered flight, while defending forces must detect it, track it and attempt interception before it arrives.

Fabian Hofman, a doctoral candidate at the University of Oslo, observed that the Kh-101 had proved less stealthy and accurate than anticipated and had struggled to penetrate air defenses arranged in several layers. His assessment adds a technical concern to the Russian analysts' claims about methods developed during the Ukraine war.

Japan's defense network includes American supplied Patriot PAC-3 batteries and advanced radar installations. These systems are designed to intercept incoming threats. A coordinated barrage involving hundreds of missiles could place heavy pressure on the network because many weapons would need to be detected and engaged within the same period.

Kinzhal missiles add another challenge to the scenario. They travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5, meaning more than five times the speed of sound, and are difficult to intercept. The Russian analysis proposes their use as an alternative that could reduce the number of missiles needed for some attacks.

Japan is upgrading missile defenses, acquiring new interceptors and connecting its systems more closely with American and allied networks. It is also investing in standoff strike capabilities, weapons that can act from greater distances, to deter threats or respond to them. Its military program therefore combines protection against incoming attacks with a wider ability to strike back.

The Dates Behind the Escalation

The developments span more than a decade, from Russian target planning to Japan's recent defense changes. The chronology helps explain why older documents have gained attention alongside new exercises and warnings.

• 2013 and 2014: Russian military documents identify 160 potential targets in Japan and South Korea, including military sites and civilian infrastructure.
• 2022: Japan updates its National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program, expanding its plans for counterstrike capabilities and defense spending.
• October 2024: Japan signs a tailored partnership program with NATO.
• November 27, 2024: Russia warns that American missiles deployed in Japan would prompt a response.
• 2025: Japan's plans for its first domestic surface-to-ship missile firing exercise in Hokkaido draw objections from Russia and North Korea.
• August 1, 2025: The hypothetical Russian campaign against Japan is being discussed amid missile modernization and regional military activity.
• 2027: Japan aims to reach defense spending equivalent to 2 percent of gross domestic product.

Japan's 2027 spending target is the next major deadline in this sequence. The military preparations and political warnings surrounding it reflect a gradual accumulation of tensions rather than a single isolated dispute.

Europe's War and Asia's Security Are Connected

Russia has deepened its military and economic ties with China and North Korea since its invasion of Ukraine. It has recruited North Korean troops for the war and coordinated exercises with China in the Pacific. Those developments connect Russia's activities in Europe with its military relationships in Asia.

Japan has joined sanctions against Russia led by Western countries, increased support for Ukraine and brought its security policies closer to those of the United States and NATO. The American alliance with Japan also includes joint operational planning for contingencies involving Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

Michito Tsuruoka, an associate professor at Keio University, described the particular difficulty Japan could face if a conflict spread from Europe:

A conflict with Russia poses a particular challenge for Tokyo if it results from a conflict spreading from Europe, as warning time would be shorter and Japan would have fewer options to prevent a conflict on its own.

The territorial dispute between Russia and Japan adds a local source of tension. About 20,000 Russians live on the islands captured from Japan at the end of World War II. Japan calls them the Northern Territories, while Russia calls them the Southern Kuril Islands. The dispute remains unresolved, and the two countries still lack a formal peace treaty.

The Russian strike scenario brings these pressures together: Japan's missile modernization, Moscow's objections to American deployments, older target planning, and the widening military connections surrounding the Ukraine war. For Tokyo, the concrete challenge is to strengthen defenses while managing tensions with a neighbor whose exercises and official warnings increasingly focus on Japan's security choices.

Key Points

• Russian analysts describe a hypothetical campaign against Japanese defenses, naval bases and shipyards, estimating 200 to 250 Kh-101 missiles.
• Leaked documents from 2013 and 2014 list 160 potential targets across Japan and South Korea, including civilian infrastructure.
• Japan is acquiring 400 Tomahawk missiles, developing longer range weapons and targeting defense spending of 2 percent of gross domestic product by 2027.
• Plans for domestic missile firing in Hokkaido have drawn protests from Russia and North Korea.
• Russian officials have warned of retaliation if American missiles are deployed in Japan.
• Japan is upgrading interception systems and working more closely with American and allied defense networks.
• Russia's ties with China and North Korea, Japan's support for Ukraine and the unresolved island dispute connect regional tensions with wider security pressures.