ttb BEV Lending Surges 133% as Thailand Prepares for EV Tax Change

Electric cars drive a bigger share of bank approvals

Thailand's ttb says its new lending for battery electric vehicles grew 133% during January to September 2026, with the vehicles accounting for 44% of all approvals for new car financing. The bank aims to raise that share to 50% in 2027, as a tax change encourages buyers to bring purchases forward and manufacturers to expand production in Thailand.

The growth puts electric cars close to the centre of ttb's new car lending business. Battery electric vehicles, or BEVs, run entirely on electricity stored in a battery. They differ from conventional hybrids, which combine an engine with an electric motor, and plug-in hybrids, which can recharge from an external power supply but also carry an engine.

Chatcharit, ttb's head of auto lending, said the bank had financed roughly 60,000 EV customers, exceeding its target. The bank estimates that it holds at least a quarter of Thailand's EV financing market and expects its outstanding BEV loans to rise from about 65 billion baht to more than 70 billion baht by the end of 2026.

The next test comes on January 1, 2027, when excise tax on certain fully imported BEVs is scheduled to rise from 10% to 35%. Buyers face pressure to decide before the change, while lenders must prepare for both a busy closing quarter and potentially weaker demand early next year.

For ttb, the challenge extends beyond financing new purchases. A growing population of electric cars approaching their first resale is making reliable valuations, affordable used car loans and repayment quality central to its strategy.

What the 133% increase means

ttb's increase of 133% means its new BEV lending reached 2.33 times the level recorded a year earlier. The bank compared that expansion with market growth of 99%, although lending growth and vehicle sales measure different activities.

The 44% figure refers specifically to the number of approvals for new car financing. In practical terms, roughly 44 out of every 100 new car loans approved by ttb were for BEVs. Reaching the 2027 target of 50% would require an increase of six percentage points, putting battery cars at half of approvals.

ttb attributes its growth partly to the arrival of more vehicle brands and the expansion of dealerships selling them across Thailand. More models and more sales locations give the bank additional opportunities to finance purchases, while its digital systems help process applications.

The bank also plans to keep its share of the wider new car financing market near its current level in 2027. Its strategy therefore combines a broadly steady competitive position with a changing mix of vehicles inside the lending business.

Thailand's market is changing, with several measures to track

ttb expects total new vehicle sales in Thailand to reach 670,000 to 700,000 in 2026, an increase of about 13% from the previous year. Its registration estimates put the combined share of BEVs, conventional hybrids and plug-in hybrids at 61%, compared with 6% in 2021. Vehicles powered solely by combustion engines account for the remaining 39%, down from 94%.

The increase from 6% to 61% is a rise of 55 percentage points. Because the category includes hybrids that still burn fuel, the shift covers a broader range of technology than cars running entirely on batteries.

The Federation of Thai Industries puts BEV passenger vehicle sales at more than 161,000 in the first nine months of 2026, nearly double the previous year's level. ttb's market breakdown lists about 160,000 BEVs among 560,000 total vehicle sales over ten months and assigns BEVs a 33% share; those totals calculate to about 29%, and the period and category definitions need clarification.

ttb also lists approximately 130,000 hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales, up 17%; 110,000 combustion passenger cars, down 17%; and 100,000 combustion pickups, down 5%. Its figures point to stronger demand for vehicles using electric motors while traditional passenger cars and pickups face pressure.

A tax deadline could bring purchases forward

Thailand's Cabinet approved the tax change on November 3, 2026. Covered imports of BEVs will move from a 10% excise rate to 35%, while imported vehicles with range extenders will move from 15% to 35%. A range extender uses a fuel powered engine to generate electricity that adds driving range.

The decision follows the government's push to turn vehicle demand into domestic investment, outlined in the earlier tax decision. Qualifying BEVs manufactured in Thailand currently receive a 2% excise rate, creating a much larger tax advantage for eligible local production.

Excise is a tax on a particular product. On an illustrative taxable value of 800,000 baht, a 10% charge is 80,000 baht and a 35% charge is 280,000 baht. The final retail price also depends on manufacturer margins, discounts and how the vehicle is taxed.

ttb expects EV financing applications in the fourth quarter to rise 30% to 40% from the third quarter; Chatcharit also described a similar expected increase in the EV market. The bank sees the tax deadline and the Motor Expo as reasons for stronger activity, while warning that purchases made early could leave fewer buyers at the start of 2027.

• January to September 2026: ttb's new BEV lending rises 133%, and BEVs reach 44% of new car financing approvals.
• November 3, 2026: the Cabinet approves higher excise rates for covered electric vehicle imports.
• December 2 to 13, 2026: Motor Expo takes place at IMPACT Muang Thong Thani.
• January 1, 2027: the new 35% excise rates are scheduled to take effect.
• April 1, 2027: China's export VAT rebate for new energy vehicles is scheduled to fall from 13% to 9%.

Buyers face different price forecasts

Kasikorn Research Centre estimates that imported BEV retail prices could rise by an average of about 25% in 2027. Kaushal Ladha, head of Thailand research at Macquarie Capital, expects increases of up to 10%, as manufacturers absorb part of the additional tax through lower margins.

Krisda Utamote, an honorary adviser to the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand, expects manufacturers to clear imported cars through customs before the deadline. Vehicles entering under the earlier tax structure could then be sold from existing stock in 2027, delaying some price increases.

Pichai Phungmai, a 66-year-old Grab driver in Bangkok, is considering an EV for its running costs, comfort and performance. His budget leaves little room for a higher purchase price:

If the price of a car increased by 100,000 baht or more, I wouldn't be able to afford it.

Motor Expo organiser Kwanchai Paphatphong expects intense competition through promotions at the event. The exhibition will include 46 car brands from eight countries, 14 motorcycle brands and three used vehicle brands, making it an important sales opportunity before the tax deadline.

Local factories gain an advantage, while suppliers seek orders

Thailand imported nearly US$2.4 billion in electric passenger cars during the first nine months of 2026, with China accounting for 96% of the value. Industry estimates put imported vehicles at around 70% of EV sales during that period. Brands relying entirely on imported BEVs account for a narrower group, about 23% of the market, according to Kasikorn Research Centre.

Excise Department figures put the imported share of EV registrations at 63%, using a different measure from sales. The department says obligations to produce locally under the EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 support programmes amount to around 240,000 vehicles by 2026 and 360,000 by 2027, with about 15,000 vehicles already counted towards those obligations.

Existing factories give some manufacturers a stronger position. BYD's Rayong plant has annual capacity for 150,000 vehicles, while MG's Chonburi plant can produce up to 100,000. Other Chinese manufacturers with production bases in Thailand include Great Wall Motor, GAC Aion, Changan and Chery Group. A company can produce some models locally while continuing to import others.

Thailand wants locally produced vehicles to reach 70% of the EV market in 2027, with imports at no more than 30%. Its broader goal is for vehicles producing zero emissions to account for at least 30% of domestic vehicle production by 2030. Proposed sourcing rules and import quotas remain unsettled, and parts suppliers are seeking requirements that direct business to Thai manufacturers at several levels of the supply chain.

Loan growth brings a larger repayment responsibility

ttb says its EV borrowers generally make down payments of at least 20%, often choosing to contribute more than the minimum. A larger initial payment reduces the amount borrowed and gives the customer a greater financial stake in the vehicle.

The bank describes EV loan quality as better than the industry average and says nonperforming loans, meaning loans with serious repayment problems, show no worrying signs. It has not published an EV specific bad loan ratio in these statements.

ttb uses data analysis, credit scoring and repayment records to assess applicants. Credit scoring brings information about a borrower together to help estimate whether that person can meet the monthly payments. The bank says repayment ability remains its main consideration for used EV lending, as it is for other used cars.

The bank puts its outstanding vehicle financing portfolio at roughly 300 billion to 400 billion baht. Its approximately 65 billion baht in BEV loans would represent around 16% to 22% of that range. Those balances measure money still owed by existing borrowers, while the 44% BEV approval share measures the mix of new lending decisions.

Financing reaches importers, dealers and digital customers

ttb says its support across the EV business exceeds 83 billion baht. That includes more than 8 billion baht for vehicle imports, more than 10 billion baht for dealers and more than 65 billion baht for consumers.

The three types of financing serve different stages of a car's journey. Importers need funding to bring vehicles into the country, dealers need money to hold stock, and buyers need loans to spread the purchase cost over time. A change in imports or sales can therefore affect several parts of the bank's business.

Digital channels account for 85% of EV loan applications, and 58% receive approval without paper documents, according to ttb. The bank says its investment in data and technology has reduced waiting and simplified processing as demand grows.

For 2027, ttb plans to match lending expansion to market conditions while following government support measures, eligibility rules and quotas. A busy final quarter could raise new business quickly, but the bank will also need to manage repayment quality and the value of the cars securing its loans.

Used EV values become the next test

ttb expects as many as 279,000 EVs to be at least three years old around 2027, with roughly 10,000 to 25,000 entering the used market annually. A wider estimate places the population of older EVs between 250,000 and 279,000. These vehicles create a growing need for prices that buyers, sellers, insurers and lenders can use with confidence.

The bank has developed an EV Used Car Ecosystem and its ttb Bluebook reference pricing service, covering more than 36 EV brands and over 900 models. It is working with used car businesses, insurers and other participants to broaden the database and reflect market conditions.

ttb says demand for used EVs has increased and prices have begun to stabilise after an earlier period of sharp falls. It attributes some of the demand to fuel costs and insufficient deliveries of certain new vehicles. Manufacturers cutting new car prices can also affect what owners receive when they sell an older model.

The bank offers used EV financing of 90% to 100% of its assessed vehicle value. A buyer's cash contribution depends partly on how that valuation compares with the seller's price. If a car sells for 600,000 baht but is valued for lending at 550,000 baht, financing the full assessed value would still leave 50,000 baht to cover before other charges.

Reliable resale prices connect ttb's new and used car strategies. Owners need a workable sale or trade value when replacing a vehicle, dealers need stock they can price, and lenders need a realistic estimate of the asset behind each loan. The next stage of EV growth will depend on those transactions as well as new car approvals.

Key Points

• ttb's new BEV lending grew 133% in January to September 2026, and BEVs represented 44% of new car financing approvals.
• The bank targets a 50% BEV approval share in 2027 and more than 70 billion baht in outstanding BEV loans by the end of 2026.
• Covered imported BEVs face an excise increase from 10% to 35% on January 1, 2027. Qualifying locally produced BEVs currently receive a 2% rate.
• Purchases brought forward before the tax change could support late 2026 activity and weaken demand early in 2027.
• Price forecasts vary, while stock cleared through customs before the deadline could delay increases for some vehicles.
• ttb is expanding used EV pricing and lending as an estimated 10,000 to 25,000 vehicles enter the resale market annually.