India's Gulf Oil Imports Overtake Russian Crude as Hormuz Flows Recover

Gulf deliveries reach 2.1 million barrels a day

India's crude oil imports from the Persian Gulf have climbed to an estimated 2.1 million barrels a day so far in November 2026, overtaking Russian supplies for the first time since the Iran war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Russian deliveries averaged about 1.8 million barrels a day over the same period, according to estimates from energy intelligence company Kpler.

The Gulf's lead of 300,000 barrels a day marks a substantial recovery from April, when shipments reaching India through Hormuz collapsed to just 247,000 barrels a day. Tanker shuttle voyages and transfers of oil between ships have helped producers restore deliveries, with some transfer operations moving toward India's western coast.

India's imports through Hormuz are now about eight and a half times their April level. They remain 700,000 barrels a day, or 25 percent, below the February average of 2.8 million barrels a day. The November figures cover only part of the month, so the final monthly comparison is still pending.

Prices and transport costs are also changing purchasing decisions. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, a major Indian state owned refiner, said at the end of October that it would reduce Russian crude purchases in November because freight charges and premiums were making those cargoes less attractive than competing Middle Eastern supplies.

For India, the world's third largest oil buyer, the shift changes where refineries obtain their raw material. Russia remains a major supplier, while Gulf producers are regaining business as they find ways to move crude through a dangerous and congested shipping corridor.

How the supply balance changed

Kpler's figures trace a sharp disruption followed by a partial recovery. Russia helped fill the gap when Gulf shipments fell, reaching a much larger share of India's purchases in July than it held in October.

• February: India's crude imports through Hormuz averaged about 2.8 million barrels a day.
• April: Those flows fell to approximately 247,000 barrels a day as attacks on shipping effectively closed the waterway to most traffic.
• July: Russian arrivals reached 2.82 million barrels a day, accounting for 55 percent of India's crude purchases.
• October: India's total crude imports reached an estimated record 5.6 million barrels a day, including 1.97 million barrels a day from Russia.
• November so far: Gulf deliveries averaged 2.1 million barrels a day, compared with 1.8 million from Russia.

Russia's October share was about 35 percent, down from 55 percent in July. Its deliveries nevertheless rose by roughly 100,000 barrels a day from September, showing that the subsequent Gulf recovery followed a month in which Indian refiners had also increased Russian purchases.

Oil changes ships to reach buyers

Gulf producers have been using shuttle voyages to carry crude through Hormuz, then transferring it to customers' tankers outside the strait. A ship to ship transfer involves moving oil directly between tankers rather than unloading it at a port.

The arrangement lets different vessels handle different parts of a delivery. It still requires ships to carry oil out of the Gulf through Hormuz, where fears of attacks have disrupted normal traffic.

Congestion in the Gulf of Oman has pushed some transfer activity farther toward India. By October, the Gulf of Kutch, on India's western coast facing the Arabian Sea, had become another transfer point for Gulf producers seeking to maintain supplies to Asian customers.

Gulf exports recover faster than normal shipping

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait exported a combined 15.53 million barrels of crude a day in October, broadly matching their level at the beginning of the year. Their recovery helps explain why Gulf oil has become more available to Indian refiners.

Transport through Hormuz has also increased. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, known as CREA, said oil volumes measured through detected vessel crossings rose 9 percent in October from September. Volumes of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, rose 15 percent.

CREA said both remained well below levels before the US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Export totals and traffic through the strait measure different things: the first counts oil shipped by producers, while the second tracks movement through a particular waterway.

India's own figures show the remaining gap. Deliveries through Hormuz have recovered strongly from April, but they are still below February's average. Producers are moving substantial quantities of oil while relying on extra transfers and altered shipping arrangements.

Why Russian discounts buy less advantage

Indian refiners compare the cost of crude delivered to their plants, including the oil itself, freight and insurance. A cheaper barrel at the loading port can become expensive after a long voyage.

Russia's Urals crude averaged $101.70 a barrel in October, up 13 percent from September, according to CREA. Its discount to Brent, a widely used international oil price benchmark, averaged $23 a barrel, compared with $24 in September.

Shipping costs have taken a larger bite out of that discount. Anshika Prajapati, lead analyst for liquid bulk at Drewry Maritime Research, put October freight from Russia's Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga to India's western coast at around $25 to $30 a barrel or more. Before the war, the range was approximately $8 to $12.

Those two ports account for around 90 percent of India's Russian crude imports. Their longer journeys make freight especially important when refiners compare Russian supplies with offers from nearby Gulf producers.

Gulf crude also carries a much higher freight bill

Transporting Gulf oil to India has become far more expensive too. Prajapati put freight from Fujairah in the UAE to India's western coast at $7.51 a barrel in October, against $1.57 in late February and $4.76 in September.

The October rate was nearly five times February's level. The short distance that traditionally made Gulf supplies attractive still matters, but congestion, transfers and fewer willing tankers have raised the cost of using that route.

Prajapati described how the crisis had changed the comparison between nearby and distant suppliers:

Historically, Gulf suppliers benefited from lower freight costs, while Atlantic Basin suppliers typically paid several times more. The current crisis has narrowed crude price differentials, temporarily making some Gulf cargoes less competitive,

The figures help explain why refiners keep adjusting their purchases. Gulf freight has risen sharply, while Russian freight remains much higher in dollar terms on the routes cited. BPCL's decision to reduce Russian purchases reflects its assessment of the combined price and transport bill.

October brought a record Russian oil bill

India spent €5.8 billion, about $6.43 billion, on Russian crude in October, according to CREA. Crude represented 91 percent of India's €6.4 billion in purchases of Russian fossil fuels that month. Coal accounted for €333 million and oil products for €232 million.

CREA recorded increases in Russian crude imports at three major Indian refining locations: 12 percent at Vadinar, 22 percent at Jamnagar and 28 percent at Paradip compared with September. Jamnagar again became the largest importer of Russian crude arriving by sea.

Higher crude prices helped push up the bill. CREA put Urals at its highest monthly average in its data going back to October 2021. Indian buyers were therefore paying more for Russian oil shortly before Gulf deliveries moved ahead in November.

Russia's shipments to overseas markets slipped by 40,000 barrels a day to 3.63 million in the four weeks ending November 8, according to tanker tracking estimates. Continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure were cited as a factor in the decline.

Insurance and longer voyages add pressure

OPEC's figures show how heavily transport risks now weigh on some oil trades. Freight and insurance normally represent around 3 percent of the total cost of crude or petroleum products. For very large crude carriers sailing from the Middle East to East Asia, their share rose from around 5 percent at the end of January to 30 percent at the end of October.

On that route, freight climbed from $3.18 to $37.13 a barrel, while insurance rose from $0.06 to $12.29 a barrel. These are figures for large tankers travelling to East Asia; the Fujairah to India figures describe a different route.

Longer voyages also reduce the supply of ships available for new cargoes. Prajapati said diversions around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope can add 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 sailing days. A tanker spending extra days on one delivery has less time to carry another.

Indian refiners must finance oil for longer while it is at sea, tying up more money before it can be processed and sold. Higher freight also affects India's petroleum exports, including diesel shipped to Europe, by raising the delivered price paid by customers.

What buyers face next

Normal commercial shipping through Hormuz would give Gulf producers and Indian refiners a less costly way to maintain deliveries. Prajapati said a return to normal transit in 2027 would bring more vessels back to Gulf trade and allow insurance premiums for war risks to decline.

New tankers expected to join the global fleet in 2027 could also ease pressure on vessel availability. Continued disruption would keep buyers dependent on transfers, longer journeys and costly insurance.

For now, India's purchasing pattern shows both recovery and continuing strain. Gulf oil has regained the lead over Russian crude, but transport costs remain far above their earlier levels. Refiners are choosing among suppliers whose prices, voyage lengths and shipping risks can change quickly.

Key Points

• India's Gulf crude imports averaged 2.1 million barrels a day so far in November, ahead of Russia's 1.8 million.
• Flows through Hormuz remain 25 percent below February's average despite a strong recovery from April.
• Tanker shuttle voyages and transfers between ships are helping Gulf producers restore deliveries.
• BPCL planned to reduce Russian purchases in November because freight costs and premiums weakened their appeal.
• India spent about $6.43 billion on Russian crude in October, according to CREA.
• Freight, insurance and vessel availability remain major costs for Indian refiners.