South Korean Experts Propose 8,500 Won Cigarettes as Ministry Rules Out Immediate Price Review

A near doubling of cigarette prices meets government caution

South Korean health specialists have proposed raising cigarette prices from 4,500 won to 8,500 won a pack, alongside a broader law covering tobacco and electronic inhalation products. Their proposal comes as imports of liquids marketed as nicotine free grow rapidly following tighter controls on synthetic nicotine.

At a November 10, 2026, forum at the Korea Press Center in Seoul, Park Eun-chul, vice president for health policy at the National Academy of Medicine of Korea, presented a scenario projecting 35.6% fewer cigarette sales, a fall in adult smoking prevalence from 17% to 14%, and about 2.76 trillion won more in annual tobacco tax revenue.

The Ministry of Health and Welfare, however, said a cigarette price increase was not currently under consideration. Jeon Eun-jeong, director of its Health Promotion Division, said the government would examine management options for nicotine analogues and products marketed as nicotine free after a hazard assessment expected before the end of 2026.

The sixth media forum, jointly organised by the academy and the Korean Association of Medical and Bio Journalists, brought together proposals on prices, product testing, school prevention, advertising and the use of health promotion funds. Its central concern was concrete: tobacco rules are changing, while products are changing faster.

What would an 8,500 won pack change?

Park's proposed increase would add 4,000 won to a pack, a rise of about 89%. A person continuing to buy one pack a day would spend an additional 120,000 won over 30 days, calculated from that proposed increase.

The scenario's projected decline from 17% to 14% means three fewer smokers for every 100 adults, or a relative reduction of about 17.6%. Cigarette sales measure the quantity purchased, while smoking prevalence measures how many adults smoke. Sales can fall faster because people who continue smoking may also buy fewer cigarettes.

Park presented the figures as estimated effects of the proposed price change. The government has set no implementation date, and the presentation did not specify when the projected reductions would be reached.

Park explained his case for a higher price by pointing to the long freeze and the cost of cigarettes compared with other wealthy countries.

Korea's cigarette price has been frozen at 4,500 won since 2015, and even when adjusted for purchasing power parity, it ranks low among OECD countries,

Purchasing power parity compares prices while accounting for how much money buys in different countries. Park put South Korea's adjusted cigarette price at 5.51 international dollars. That measure helps compare affordability across economies rather than simply converting won at a currency exchange rate.

Why a high tax share can coexist with cheap cigarettes

The Korea Health Promotion Institute's tobacco taxation guidance lists taxes and charges of 3,323.4 won on a cigarette pack retailing for 4,500 won. That is 73.8% of the price, close to the 75% benchmark the institute cites from the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

A tax share describes how the price is divided between government receipts and the rest of the supply chain. Affordability describes how easily a buyer can pay that price. A large tax share can therefore sit alongside a low purchase price, especially when income rises while the sticker price stays unchanged.

The institute's table also shows different tax burdens across products: 3,004.4 won per 20 sticks of heated tobacco, with a listed tax share of 66.8%, and 2,209.22 won per millilitre of electronic cigarette liquid, with a listed share of 49.1%. The different units matter when comparing actual purchases.

Park proposed automatically adjusting tobacco taxes and the National Health Promotion Levy as prices and incomes rise. Such a system would make regular adjustments rather than waiting for another large increase after a lengthy freeze.

What the 2015 increase teaches

The World Bank's Korea tobacco taxation report records the previous major increase: in 2015, cigarette prices rose 80%, from 2,500 won to 4,500 won. Taxes increased from about 62% to 74% of the retail price.

Cigarette sales fell 23.7% immediately after that reform. They recovered somewhat in 2016 but remained below their 2014 level. The report's revenue series for the National Health Promotion Charge and tobacco excise tax rose from 4.584 trillion won in 2014 to 5.520 trillion won in 2015 and 6.836 trillion won in 2016.

Higher revenue can accompany lower sales when the tax collected on each remaining purchase increases enough to outweigh the fall in purchases. Park's new scenario applies that same broad mechanism, projecting fewer cigarettes sold alongside higher annual receipts.

The World Bank also recommended considering adjustments tied to inflation or income growth. Its analysis warned that rising affordability could gradually weaken the effect of a price increase. It found that young people and people on lower incomes tended to respond more strongly to higher prices, making access to help with quitting an important part of taxation policy.

Imports shift toward liquids marketed as nicotine free

Lee Sung-kyu, head of the Korea Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, said imports of synthetic nicotine liquid fell sharply after the revised Tobacco Business Act took effect in April 2026. The amendment brought synthetic nicotine within the legal definition of tobacco.

Imports of liquids classified as nicotine free moved in the opposite direction. Their value from January through August 2026 exceeded twice the value imported during all of 2025, Lee said. The comparison concerns money spent on imports, rather than litres imported or the number of users.

Lee described online sales of liquids advertised with test certificates and devices holding large quantities of liquid. Government testing had detected nicotine and nicotine analogues in some products marketed as nicotine free, prompting calls for closer verification of ingredients and health risks. Nicotine analogues are substances with chemical structures similar to nicotine.

Kim Ji-eun, director of the Smoking Cessation Policy Planning Division at the Korea Health Promotion Institute, said conventional cigarette smoking had declined while electronic cigarette use had increased. Use of both product types had also become more varied, strengthening the case for tracking people's complete pattern of use.

Schools face products designed to blend in

Fruit and dessert flavours, together with devices resembling pencil cases, earphone cases and cosmetics, were among the products Lee described. Their appearance can make use harder for adults to notice, while claims that a liquid contains no nicotine complicate school responses.

Lee said schools lacked clear response standards when students insisted their electronic cigarette liquid was nicotine free. He called for accurate information about new inhalation products, stronger prevention education and clearer guidance for staff.

Urine testing for cotinine, a substance the body produces after processing nicotine, also presents difficulties in this setting, Lee said. His recommendation was to improve education and response rules as the range of ingredients and devices expands.

Kim said policy should prevent new use among adolescents and young adults while supporting people trying to quit. For schools and families, the practical task is to recognise a widening range of products rather than focusing only on familiar cigarettes and vaping devices.

Pouches, strips and toothpicks widen the challenge

Lee identified nicotine pouches associated with KT&G and Philip Morris Korea as products awaiting entry into the domestic market. He also pointed to nicotine strips and toothpicks as possible future arrivals.

Lee described the companies' products and the regulatory response he wanted.

Nicotine pouches held by companies such as KT&G and Philip Morris Korea are waiting to enter the domestic market, and nicotine strips and nicotine toothpicks could soon become common as well,

Lee also cited the 2025 U.S. National Youth Tobacco Survey as showing a declining share of exclusive liquid electronic cigarette use among adolescent users, alongside increasing exclusive use of nicotine pouches and use of pouches together with other products. He used the American experience to explain why Korean prevention efforts should prepare for more than inhaled products.

The World Bank documented an earlier example of sellers adapting to product definitions. After electronic cigarette taxes increased in 2015, sellers offered nicotine liquid and flavouring liquid separately. Because liquid without nicotine was untaxed, the report estimated that this practice could avoid 95% of tax duties. It also warned about the danger of consumers mixing highly concentrated nicotine themselves.

A broader law and stronger protections

Park proposed replacing the Tobacco Business Act with an Act on the Management of Tobacco and Electronic Inhalation Products. His aim was to bring all tobacco and electronic inhalation products into a framework centred on public health rather than industry management.

Park also presented South Korea's average score under the WHO MPOWER tobacco control framework as 3.563 out of five. Monitoring tobacco use and providing cessation support each scored five, while protection from secondhand smoke scored 2.125, enforcement of advertising, promotion and sponsorship bans scored 2.375, and tobacco taxation scored 2.5.

MPOWER groups tobacco policy into practical tasks, including tracking use, protecting people from smoke, helping people quit, warning about harm, restricting promotion and raising taxes. Park's figures placed weaker performance in protection, advertising controls and taxation alongside stronger monitoring and cessation services.

Jo Hong-jun, emeritus professor at Ulsan College of Medicine, called for controls on additives, including flavourings, that can increase products' appeal, dependence or toxicity. He also proposed standardised cigarette packaging and a broader tobacco and nicotine products law.

Jo said nicotine analogues required discussion across disciplines and ministries, including whether to regulate them as tobacco or under the Act on Registration and Evaluation of Chemical Substances. Kim pointed to harmful substance testing introduced under the Tobacco Harmfulness Management Act as a foundation for future policy and prevention work.

Where the money and legal responsibility would go

Park linked higher levies to a proposed change in health funding. He called for reducing health insurance support from 65% to 50% of expected tobacco levy receipts, while increasing support for health insurance from general government finances.

His proposal would leave more of those levy receipts available for health promotion and disease prevention. The change concerns how expected levy income is allocated, alongside his wider call to increase the National Health Promotion Levy.

Lim Hyun-jung, director of the Legal Support Office at the National Health Insurance Service, argued that tobacco litigation should also be viewed as a public health tool. She said changing product designs did not remove responsibility for health damage and social costs.

Drawing on overseas litigation, Lim said lawsuits can bring internal company records into public view, clarify what companies knew about risks and affect advertising, promotion and sales practices through financial responsibility. She argued that facts established in court could also help improve regulation and prevent future harm.

What happens next?

Jeon said the Health Ministry would review management options with other ministries after the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety completes its hazard assessment of nicotine analogues and products marketed as nicotine free, expected within 2026. The ministry would continue monitoring emerging products and prioritise feasible measures that do not involve price increases.

The sequence shows how the debate has developed:

• 2015: Cigarette prices increased from 2,500 won to 4,500 won, and taxes rose across several tobacco categories.
• April 2026: The revised Tobacco Business Act took effect, including synthetic nicotine in the definition of tobacco.
• January to August 2026: Import value for nicotine free liquids exceeded twice the total for 2025, according to Lee.
• November 10, 2026: Specialists proposed an 8,500 won cigarette price and broader product regulation at the Seoul forum.
• By the end of 2026: The hazard assessment is expected to inform government discussions on managing nicotine analogues and nicotine free products.

The immediate government response therefore centres on testing, monitoring and measures outside pricing. The specialists' package reaches further, combining higher prices with automatic tax adjustments, wider legal coverage, school guidance, advertising controls and changes to health funding.

Key Points

• Experts proposed raising cigarette prices by 4,000 won to 8,500 won a pack, an increase of about 89%.
• Park's scenario projects 35.6% fewer cigarette sales, adult smoking prevalence falling from 17% to 14%, and 2.76 trillion won more in annual tobacco tax revenue.
• The Health Ministry said a cigarette price increase was not currently under consideration.
• Import value for nicotine free liquids in the first eight months of 2026 exceeded twice the total for 2025, according to Lee.
• Government testing found nicotine or nicotine analogues in some liquids marketed as nicotine free.
• A hazard assessment expected by the end of 2026 will guide discussions on broader product management.