Kazakhstan's $10 Billion AI Hub Faces a Power Test as Data Center Plans Expand

A coal city prepares to export computing power

Kazakhstan plans to turn Ekibastuz, a city built around coal mines and power stations, into an international artificial intelligence hub. A $10 billion package of agreements announced on June 15, 2026, envisages 100,000 advanced processors and at least $3 billion in annual export revenue. Construction updates now describe three initial data centers totaling 304 megawatts, with openings scheduled across 2027.

The ambition comes with a demanding electricity calculation. Kazakhstan generated 123.1 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 but consumed 124.6 billion, according to Energy Ministry figures. A campus running continuously at the proposed eventual capacity of one gigawatt would use about 8.8 billion kilowatt-hours a year, roughly 7% of that national consumption.

Nvidia founder and chief executive Jensen Huang promoted the country's potential during his first visit to Kazakhstan on October 23. He met President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the Akorda presidential palace in Astana and spoke with Deputy Prime Minister Zhaslan Madiyev, who also serves as minister of artificial intelligence and digital development, at the Alem.ai international center.

Huang described a business model in which Kazakhstan sells the results of computing rather than simply selling fuel. During the discussion, he said:

Instead of just exporting energy in the future, you could transform this energy into intelligence and export intelligence,

For Kazakhstan, the promise is a new source of foreign currency and skilled employment alongside oil, gas and minerals. Delivering it requires several projects to work together: data centers, power generation, transmission lines, international internet connections and contracts with customers willing to buy the computing capacity.

What the $10 billion agreements cover

The government's June 15 announcement describes a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov with Nvidia Vice President Rev Lebaredian and Firebird cofounders Razmig Hovaghimian and Alexander Yesayan. Firebird is a US company specializing in AI infrastructure and data centers.

The announcement names two signed documents: a Strategic Cooperation Agreement between the AI ministry and Firebird, and a Binding Term Sheet covering cooperation between Kazakhtelecom and Firebird. A term sheet sets out the principal terms of a planned business arrangement. Subsequent descriptions identify Kazakhtelecom's wholly owned subsidiary KT-Telecom as the signatory to that document.

Nvidia participated in the talks and presented technology, while the two disclosed agreements name the ministry, Firebird and the Kazakhtelecom side as signatories. The announced financing structure gives Firebird responsibility for funding and owning computing equipment. A joint venture involving Kazakhtelecom and Samruk-Kazyna Invest is to finance supporting infrastructure.

The financing figures have changed across announcements. June descriptions put an opening phase at $5 billion, including $1 billion from Kazakhtelecom, with another $5 billion intended for a larger computing cluster. On July 13, Bektenov described more than $10 billion as foreign investment. A later assessment attributed to consulting firm KPMG estimated $115 billion in investment over a projected operating period of 20 years, a much longer scope than the initial package.

The full financing breakdown, the timetable for releasing funds and the identities and contract values of prospective customers remain undisclosed. Kazakhtelecom chairman Bagdat Mussin has said Firebird already holds service agreements with major international companies.

How the construction schedule has developed

Ekibastuz's development plan has become more detailed as work has advanced. Pavlodar regional authorities allocated 177 hectares, including 124.4 hectares for the opening phase. By May 25, survey crews had completed geodetic work, which maps the site's precise shape and position, while geological investigations and excavation were underway.

A July update described two centers of 125 MW each, with the first due in the first half of 2027 and the second in 2028. A subsequent project review set out a different opening configuration: three facilities totaling 304 MW, all scheduled for 2027. The published updates do not explain how the earlier two facilities fit into that revised configuration.

The announced milestones show the intended pace:

• June 15, 2026: The government announces the $10 billion cooperation package involving Firebird and Nvidia technology.
• July 13: Bektenov says partners are deploying 250 MW of infrastructure.
• Second quarter of 2027: A 68 MW data center is scheduled to open.
• Third quarter of 2027: The 164 MW Firebird AI data center is scheduled to begin operations.
• Fourth quarter of 2027: A third facility, with 72 MW of capacity, is scheduled for commissioning.
• 2029: Kazakhstan targets total Data Center Valley capacity of one gigawatt.

At the later review chaired by Bektenov, Mussin said the 68 MW facility had reached foundation and infrastructure construction, with an administrative building also being built. Excavation for Firebird's 164 MW facility was reported to be 70% complete.

Expansion discussions extend beyond those buildings. Preliminary agreements with Gaw Capital, Boosteroid and Firebird cover 480 MW, potentially rising to 620 MW. Talks with Aleria, Energy Capital Global and China Energy concern another 240 MW, potentially expandable to 420 MW. Those figures describe separate proposed development packages at different stages of negotiation.

What the processors would actually do

Firebird has secured a US export license for 45,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell graphics processing units for the first phase. GPUs are chips that perform many calculations at the same time. That makes them useful for training AI systems and running those systems when customers ask them to produce text, analyze images or perform other tasks.

Madiyev's larger plan calls for 100,000 GPUs, including Nvidia GB300 and Vera Rubin technology. The opening licensed shipment would therefore represent 45% of the planned processor count, although computing performance also depends on the chip models and how they are connected.

Kazakhstan would earn export revenue by selling access to this computing equipment to customers abroad. Instead of moving coal or oil across a border, the country would use electricity locally to process digital work delivered through communications networks.

Madiyev estimates annual export revenue of at least $3 billion once the project is operating at its intended scale. KPMG's assessment puts potential annual exports at up to $3.1 billion. Both are projections. The money available to investors and the state would also depend on electricity bills, equipment costs, financing and other operating expenses.

Firebird chief executive Razmig Hovaghimian has said a launch in 2027 would place Kazakhstan among the world's top ten countries in AI infrastructure. Kazakhstan already has systems on the June 2026 TOP500 supercomputer list: Alem.Cloud ranked 104th and AI-Farabium 122nd, both using Nvidia H200 accelerators. Ekibastuz is intended to serve a much larger commercial market.

Why Ekibastuz has an advantage

Ekibastuz sits in the Pavlodar region, one of Kazakhstan's major coal basins, beside the GRES-1 thermal power plant. Its industrial land, established electrical infrastructure and cold climate offer practical advantages for a business that consumes large amounts of electricity and produces heat around the clock.

The government's June announcement says 300 MW of power capacity is already available, with expansion planned in stages to one gigawatt. The first center is expected to use an existing 215 MW substation, the equipment that adjusts voltage and distributes electricity to users.

Nvidia Vice President Rev Lebaredian explained the role of power during the June meeting:

But everything begins with energy. If you do not have energy, you cannot build the rest. It is the foundation.

Cold weather can reduce the work needed to cool server halls. Water for staff and site operations is expected to come from the Satpayev Canal, with use estimated at 2,300 cubic meters a day and separate reserves for fire protection. That daily volume equals about 2.3 million liters.

Mussin described the commercial model as "transforming Ekibastuz coal into digital export revenue." It would give an established industrial city a new product to sell, while retaining electricity generation as the foundation of its economy.

Can the electricity system keep up?

Kazakhstan's electricity shortfall in 2025 was approximately 1.5 billion kilowatt-hours, with nearly that amount imported from Russia. At a continuous 250 MW load, the early development described in July would consume about 2.19 billion kilowatt-hours annually, roughly 1.8% of national consumption in 2025 and about 1.5 times that year's shortfall.

A megawatt measures the rate at which electricity is used; a kilowatt-hour measures the amount used over time. The annual calculations assume the facilities operate at the stated capacity every hour of the year. Actual consumption will depend on utilization, equipment and cooling requirements.

The one gigawatt plan would require roughly four times as much electricity as the 250 MW configuration. Huang has also discussed a possible eventual scale of five gigawatts, well beyond the government's announced one gigawatt target for 2029.

Fossil fuels dominate the power supply. Project descriptions put thermal generation at 74.4% of domestic output in 2025, while an Energy Ministry breakdown lists coal at 51.4% and gas at 25.6%, totaling 77%. Both figures point to substantial reliance on fuel burning power stations.

Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov says new facilities should allow Kazakhstan to meet domestic demand by the end of the first quarter of 2027, followed by stable surpluses in electricity and balancing capacity by 2029. Balancing capacity is the ability to adjust supply quickly as demand changes.

The January 14, 2026, government review identified 81 generation projects totaling 15.3 GW, within an accelerated energy program worth more than 13 trillion tenge, or about $27.7 billion. More than 26 GW of additional generation is planned by 2035. Installed capacity rose from 25.3 GW to 26.7 GW during 2025, but the annual shortfall shows the importance of how much electricity plants actually produce.

Power lines and new plants have their own deadlines

Kazakhstan must expand electricity delivery as well as generation. National grid operator KEGOC plans to complete two transmission projects in 2027: a line of 475 kilometers linking Shu, Zhambyl and Shymkent, and another of 604 kilometers connecting the western system through Ulke and Karabatan.

Those projects address wider national supply needs. By 2035, KEGOC plans 6,659 kilometers of new transmission lines and modernization of more than 10,500 kilometers of existing infrastructure. Samruk Energo's generation portfolio includes 7.4 GW of additional capacity by the same year.

Some major plants near Ekibastuz are scheduled after the first data centers. New units at Ekibastuz Power Plant-2 are due in 2028 and 2030. Plans also include a 2,640 MW Ekibastuz Power Plant-3 and a 700 MW plant in Kurchatov. Kazakhstan's first nuclear plant is expected in 2034.

Other industries will also need more electricity. Mining, metallurgy and manufacturing expansion includes a planned $1.5 billion KAZ Minerals copper smelter in the Abai region, expected around 2030. The data centers will enter a power system serving several growing industries at once.

Reaching customers beyond Kazakhstan

International connections are another essential part of the export plan. About 90% of Kazakhstan's outbound internet traffic currently passes through Russia. The Trans-Caspian fiber cable, scheduled to begin operations in 2027, would provide another route toward overseas markets.

Marat Beksultanov, a geospatial analyst whose US consultancy examined Data Center Valley, argues that the customer base and financing deserve closer scrutiny. He says US restrictions on advanced chips could exclude Chinese and Russian customers, limiting access to two large nearby markets.

Beksultanov also argues that European customers may be concerned about data routes through Russia and emissions from coal generation. Corporate environmental requirements could affect which customers are willing to buy services and what electricity arrangements they expect.

His financing assessment is similarly cautious: he says some spending presented as private investment appears to involve government financing through bonds and borrowing. That would make the project's commercial performance relevant to public finances as well as to Firebird and its partners.

Firebird points to its AI factory near Hrazdan in Armenia as evidence of delivery experience. Its first phase is designed for 18 MW and more than 6,000 Nvidia Blackwell GPUs. The company says it moved from initial construction to readiness for deployment in just over six months. The 164 MW Firebird facility now planned in Ekibastuz would be more than nine times that size by stated power capacity.

What Kazakhstan expects to gain locally

Officials expect more than 1,500 temporary construction jobs and over 250 permanent positions. Data centers require heavy spending on chips, buildings, power equipment and cooling, but relatively small operating teams once construction ends.

The broader domestic program includes Firebird Labs Kazakhstan at Alem.ai, intended to support research, startups and engineering skills. The government also expects local computing access to support cloud services, scientific work and AI applications within Kazakhstan.

The project sits within the Digital Qazaqstan National Strategy for Digital Transformation and Artificial Intelligence Development. Kazakhstan declared 2026 the Year of Digitalization and Artificial Intelligence, placing the campus within a wider government push rather than treating it as an isolated construction project.

The next concrete tests arrive in 2027: the government's electricity sufficiency deadline at the end of the first quarter, the first 68 MW center in the second quarter, Firebird's facility in the third and the 72 MW center in the fourth. Meeting those milestones would begin turning the export ambition into an operating business.

Key Points

• Kazakhstan's $10 billion agreement package targets a major AI computing cluster in Ekibastuz using Nvidia technology.
• The latest described opening phase comprises three data centers totaling 304 MW, scheduled across 2027.
• Firebird has secured a US export license for 45,000 GPUs; the broader plan calls for 100,000.
• The government targets one gigawatt of campus capacity by 2029 and projects at least $3 billion in annual export revenue.
• Kazakhstan consumed 1.5 billion kilowatt-hours more electricity than it generated in 2025.
• Power supply, international connections, financing and customer contracts will shape how quickly the development can grow.