Japan Could Take Until 2065 to Recover ¥15.4 Trillion in Fukushima Support

A Repayment Bill Stretching Across Generations

Japan could be recovering money advanced for the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster until fiscal 2065, according to a Board of Audit calculation that assumes the full ¥15.4 trillion government financing facility is used. The longest scenario would mean another 39 years of repayments, while the shortest would finish in fiscal 2050.

The government increased the facility from ¥13.5 trillion to ¥15.4 trillion in its fiscal 2024 budget as compensation needs expanded, including losses associated with the release of treated water. The new ceiling is ¥1.9 trillion higher, an increase of about 14%.

Japan's recovery system spreads the financial burden across Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, other nuclear operators, electricity customers and the national budget. TEPCO receives the compensation funding without paying interest, while the government borrows from private financial institutions and pays the financing costs.

The audit covering the period through March 2026 also puts spending on compensation, decontamination, interim storage and work at the damaged plant at about ¥13.9 trillion. That is roughly 59% of the government's ¥23.4 trillion estimate for responding to the accident.

Two pressures now meet in the same accounts: Japan still has decades of money recovery ahead, and some of the most difficult work at the plant has yet to receive a complete cost estimate. TEPCO must fund that work while maintaining electricity supplies and making contributions toward compensation costs.

How Government Funding Comes Back

The Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation sits between the government and TEPCO. The government provides bonds to the corporation, then supplies cash when those bonds are redeemed. The corporation passes compensation funding to TEPCO.

Nuclear operators make annual general contributions to the corporation. TEPCO also pays a special contribution, set at ¥40 billion for fiscal 2025. Money flowing through the corporation is returned to the national treasury, gradually recovering the funds advanced.

The repayment framework also depends on selling TEPCO shares held by the corporation. The government's 2016 plan assigned expected share sale profits to recovering approximately ¥4 trillion in decontamination costs. The price obtained for those shares therefore affects how much must be recovered through continuing annual payments.

Interim storage has a further public funding channel. Under Article 68 of the law governing the corporation, the government provides money that increases the corporation's income and its payments back to the treasury. The 2016 framework assigned the government responsibility for approximately ¥1.6 trillion in interim storage costs, with surplus share sale profits available to reduce that amount.

For readers following the totals, the ¥15.4 trillion facility is the maximum compensation financing assumed in the latest recovery calculation. The approximately ¥13.9 trillion is expenditure across several accident response activities through fiscal 2025. The government's ¥23.4 trillion estimate covers a broader set of expected costs, including decommissioning.

Why the Recovery Date Depends on TEPCO

The latest calculation reaches fiscal 2065 when TEPCO's special contribution stays at ¥40 billion annually from fiscal 2026 onward and share sale proceeds are calculated using a TEPCO share price of ¥614.9. Different assumptions produce the earliest recovery date of fiscal 2050.

A gap of 15 years between those outcomes shows how strongly recovery depends on the company's finances and the value of its shares. Larger annual contributions or higher share sale profits can bring the finishing date forward. Smaller payments leave more money to be collected over a longer period.

The Board of Audit's 2022 audit report calculated recovery of the earlier ¥13.5 trillion ceiling under several sets of assumptions. One set produced total recovery periods of 33 to 45 years. Keeping TEPCO's special contribution at ¥40 billion produced periods of 36 to 53 years, with the longest ending in fiscal 2064.

The latest maximum finishing date is one year later. The earlier periods count the recovery process from its starting point, while the latest description of 39 more years measures the time remaining from 2026. The calendar dates make the comparison easier to follow.

The recovery dates are calculations based on assumed payments and share values. Actual timing will depend on those financial conditions and how much of the facility is ultimately used.

Where ¥13.9 Trillion Has Gone

Accident response spending rose by approximately ¥1.8 trillion in the four years since the previous audit period, which ended in fiscal 2021. The latest breakdown shows how different parts of the recovery are moving at different speeds.

• Compensation to affected people and businesses reached ¥7.9384 trillion, about 11% above the earlier audit total.
• Decontamination costs reached ¥3.2131 trillion, an increase of about 7%.
• Decommissioning and contaminated water measures reached ¥2.2477 trillion, an increase of about 32%.
• Interim storage costs reached ¥531 billion, an increase of about 98%.

Compensation remains the largest category. It includes payments for damage suffered by people and businesses after the disaster. Decontamination covers work to remove radioactive contamination from affected areas, while interim storage covers facilities and activities needed to hold material collected during cleanup.

Interim storage spending has nearly doubled from a smaller starting amount. At the plant itself, expenditure is growing as TEPCO prepares for increasingly difficult work on the damaged reactors.

The earlier official audit recorded ¥10.2351 trillion transferred by the government to the corporation for TEPCO compensation through fiscal 2021. By then, ¥2.2881 trillion had been returned to the treasury, approximately 22% of the amount transferred. About ¥7.95 trillion of those transfers remained to be recovered at that point, before subsequent funding.

The Missing Costs Inside Reactor Cleanup

Decommissioning spending and estimated future expenses together now total ¥5.8341 trillion. That is about 73% of the government's ¥8 trillion estimate for dismantling the damaged plant and associated work.

TEPCO had spent ¥2.2477 trillion on decommissioning and contaminated water measures by the end of fiscal 2025. Additional costs expected from fiscal 2026 onward amount to approximately ¥3.6 trillion.

The future estimate leaves out equipment costs for retrieving fuel debris from Units 1 and 2. Fuel debris is the material left when nuclear fuel melted and mixed with parts of the reactors. Removing it requires equipment able to work in highly radioactive, damaged spaces.

Subtracting the ¥5.8341 trillion already spent or expected from the ¥8 trillion estimate leaves about ¥2.17 trillion for costs outside the current accounting. The eventual price of the omitted retrieval equipment and other remaining work is not yet known.

TEPCO is expected to fund decommissioning in full. The earlier audit recorded a decommissioning reserve balance of ¥585.5 billion at the end of fiscal 2021, alongside approximately ¥1.7019 trillion in costs incurred through that year. The reserve system requires TEPCO to set money aside with the corporation and obtain approval for withdrawals needed to carry out the work.

Government support also covers difficult research, facilities and training. The 2022 audit recorded ¥317.8 billion in public financial measures for those activities through fiscal 2021, including work connected to radioactive material analysis and remote technology.

The Dates Behind the Long Financial Tail

Fukushima's financial timetable now extends beyond the target for completing decommissioning. Japan and TEPCO aim to finish that work in 2051, while the latest recovery scenarios extend as far as fiscal 2065.

The main milestones show how the obligations have developed since the accident:

• March 11, 2011: The earthquake and tsunami triggered the Fukushima Daiichi disaster.
• September 2011: The government established the support corporation to help secure compensation funding.
• December 2016: The government raised the compensation bond ceiling from ¥9 trillion to ¥13.5 trillion.
• 2023: Releases of treated water into the sea began.
• 2024: Trial retrieval of fuel debris began, and the fiscal 2024 budget raised the financing facility to ¥15.4 trillion.
• March 2026: The latest audit period closed, 15 years after the disaster.
• Fiscal 2037 or later: Large scale fuel debris retrieval is planned to begin at Unit 3.
• 2051: The government and TEPCO's target year for completing decommissioning.
• Fiscal 2050 to fiscal 2065: The range of finishing dates in the latest funding recovery scenarios.

The Unit 3 plan places the start of large scale debris retrieval relatively close to the 2051 completion target. Its cost and progress will matter to TEPCO's ability to maintain funding for both plant work and compensation obligations.

Why Compensation Keeps Expanding

TEPCO's estimated compensation liability was ¥12.5865 trillion in the special business plan approved in April 2022. The Board of Audit said the estimate had increased as new claims arrived and decontamination and storage projects progressed.

That estimate excluded compensation for possible reputational damage associated with releasing treated water because the scale of such losses could not then be estimated. Reputational damage means businesses losing sales because customers avoid a product or place following concerns about it.

By fiscal 2025, about ¥90 billion had been spent on compensation connected with the treated water releases that began in 2023. That development helps explain why the government expanded the compensation financing facility.

Court decisions were another pressure identified in the earlier audit. By March 2022, seven final judgments among 40 group lawsuits had ordered TEPCO to pay more than its existing compensation standards allowed. In April 2022, the government's Nuclear Damage Compensation Dispute Reconciliation Committee began considering whether the guidelines behind those standards needed revision.

For affected residents and businesses, compensation standards determine which losses qualify and how much is paid. For the financing system, changes to those standards can increase the amount that needs government support and eventual recovery.

Electricity Customers Are Paying Too

Electricity users contribute through charges embedded in the transmission and distribution system. Collection began in October 2020 to recover compensation reserves that had not been accumulated before the accident.

The earlier official audit recorded an approved collection amount of approximately ¥2.4398 trillion, to be recovered over 40 years. Dividing that amount across the period gives about ¥60.9 billion annually.

During fiscal 2021, the existing portion of nuclear operators' annual general contributions fell from ¥163 billion to ¥133.7 billion, a reduction of ¥29.3 billion, or about 18%. Adding the approximately ¥60.9 billion collected through network charges produced a total general contribution of about ¥194.6 billion.

The Board of Audit found that published company contribution totals did not show the two components separately. Readers could see the total paid by each company without seeing that the older contribution component had been reduced while electricity customers were providing the additional money.

The corporation explained the reduction by referring to changes in operators' finances after the accident and changes in the electricity market following retail liberalisation. The auditors called for fuller explanations of changes to general contributions and how TEPCO's special contribution was calculated.

Interim storage also remains a practical issue for communities. Japan is considering using Fukushima cleanup soil in landscaping at Yokohama's 2027 horticultural expo. Approximately 14 million cubic metres of removed soil are stored around the plant, and Japanese law requires final disposal outside Fukushima Prefecture by March 2045.

Higher Interest Meets Weaker Earnings

The government faces a growing financing cost while it waits for recovery. Using the outstanding borrowing balance and the average interest rate of 1.287% at the end of fiscal 2025, the auditors calculated annual interest payments of approximately ¥101.9 billion.

That annual amount is roughly twice the approximately ¥50.8 billion in interest paid across the entire period from fiscal 2011 through fiscal 2025. The comparison shows how a higher rate can change the cost of carrying a large unpaid balance.

The 2022 audit had used a borrowing rate of 0.1% in its scenarios and warned that higher rates could require additional public funding. Interest is paid by the government, placing that expense on the national budget even as operators continue making contributions.

TEPCO's earnings present another constraint. The group reported a net loss of ¥454.2 billion for the year ended March 2026, affected by special losses associated with decommissioning. It secured approximately ¥368 billion for compensation and decommissioning in fiscal 2025, against an annual goal of ¥500 billion.

The shortfall was about ¥132 billion, leaving the company at roughly 74% of its funding goal. The auditors called on TEPCO to improve its ability to earn money so it could continue supplying electricity and meeting accident response costs.

Japan's financing arrangement therefore depends on several connected outcomes: TEPCO generating enough cash, annual contributions continuing, shares producing sufficient sale profits and decommissioning costs being funded as work advances. Each affects how long the financial consequences of the disaster remain with customers and the public budget.

Key Points

• Recovery of a fully used ¥15.4 trillion compensation facility could finish between fiscal 2050 and fiscal 2065.
• Accident response spending reached about ¥13.9 trillion through fiscal 2025, roughly 59% of the government's ¥23.4 trillion estimate.
• Decommissioning spending and estimated future costs total ¥5.8341 trillion, with some fuel debris retrieval equipment costs still excluded.
• Electricity customers help fund recovery through network charges, while the government pays borrowing interest.
• Annual government interest costs were calculated at about ¥101.9 billion using the rate and borrowing balance at the end of fiscal 2025.
• TEPCO secured about ¥368 billion for compensation and decommissioning in fiscal 2025, below its ¥500 billion goal.