Heat Stress Cost Sri Lanka Working Time Equal to 120,000 Jobs in 2023, ILO Estimates

Rising heat takes a measurable toll on work

Sri Lanka lost working time equivalent to more than 120,000 full-time jobs in 2023 because of increased workplace heat stress, according to the International Labour Organization (ILO). The organisation estimated an additional $6.5 billion in lost economic output compared with an average year during its historical reference period of 1985 to 2014.

Agriculture accounted for 48% of the estimated loss of working time, while 35% of the annual total occurred in the second quarter, from April through June. Those figures identify both the workers facing the largest burden and the months when protection is especially urgent.

The ILO report, Impacts of heat stress on jobs and productivity in Sri Lanka, projects further losses as temperatures rise. By 2040, the annual reduction in working time could equal between 145,000 and 221,000 full-time jobs, depending on global greenhouse gas emissions. By 2060, the range increases to between 158,000 and 349,000.

For workers, the problem is immediate: physically demanding tasks become harder to sustain, more recovery time is needed, and fewer hours can be worked safely. For businesses and the government, those lost hours translate into reduced production and pressure on an economy trying to build a durable recovery.

What the jobs figure measures

The figure of more than 120,000 full-time jobs represents working hours lost across the economy, converted into the amount of work normally performed by that many people employed full time. The ILO calculated the estimate from lost working time associated with heat stress.

For example, reduced working hours spread across many farms, factories and building sites can add up to thousands of full-time job equivalents. The workers affected may remain employed while completing less work, slowing their pace or taking additional breaks to recover from the heat.

The historical comparison also matters. The report measures the additional burden against average conditions during 1985 to 2014. Its $6.5 billion estimate therefore describes the extra economic loss associated with increased heat stress relative to that reference period.

Which workers face the largest losses?

Agriculture accounted for nearly half of the estimated job equivalents lost in 2023. Services followed at 22%, manufacturing at 13%, construction at 11%, and transport and trade at 6%.

• Agriculture: 48% of the estimated loss.
• Services: 22%.
• Manufacturing: 13%.
• Construction: 11%.
• Transport and trade: 6%.

Agriculture and construction together represented 59% of the total. Workers in both sectors often combine prolonged exposure to high temperatures with demanding physical activity. Their bodies generate heat through exertion while also absorbing heat from their surroundings.

Services, manufacturing, transport and trade together accounted for the remaining 41%. The distribution shows that the challenge extends beyond fields and building sites. Indoor workplaces can also become difficult to work in when ventilation and cooling are inadequate.

Service industries and transport bore a substantial share of the financial impact in 2023. The sector with the most lost working hours can differ from the sector with the largest monetary loss because the value of production associated with each hour varies across activities. Both measures matter when deciding where to direct protection and investment.

Why Colombo's heat is especially demanding

Sri Lanka's average temperature has risen by approximately 1°C since the 1960s, according to the ILO analysis. Rainfall has also become more unpredictable, while climate data covering the past three decades show accelerating warming and more frequent and intense extreme temperature events.

Colombo and the surrounding southwestern coastal region experience wet-bulb globe temperatures exceeding 33°C. This measure combines several conditions affecting the body, including humidity, radiant heat from sunlight and surrounding surfaces, and air temperature.

A wet-bulb globe temperature reading differs from the air temperature shown in a routine weather forecast. It helps describe how demanding the environment is for someone working in it. Humidity makes it harder for sweat to evaporate, while direct sunlight adds to the heat a worker must release.

The concentration of 35% of the annual estimated loss in April through June gives employers a practical planning window. Staffing, water supplies, rest arrangements and working hours need particular attention before and during this period.

How the projected losses grow

The ILO's projections describe several possible futures rather than a single forecast. Greenhouse gas emissions influence how much additional warming occurs, which in turn affects the amount of work that can be performed safely.

By 2040, Sri Lanka could lose working time equivalent to between 145,000 and 221,000 full-time jobs each year. The gap between those estimates is 76,000 job equivalents, showing how widely outcomes could vary under different emissions pathways.

By 2060, the projected range widens to between 158,000 and 349,000. The upper estimate exceeds the lower one by 191,000 job equivalents and is more than twice as large. Under the highest emissions scenario, the report estimates an annual economic output loss of 15.2% relative to the historical baseline.

The main dates and reference periods are:

• 1985 to 2014: the historical period used to calculate average reference conditions.
• 2023: additional lost working time exceeded 120,000 full-time job equivalents, with an estimated $6.5 billion economic loss.
• 2040: projected annual losses reach between 145,000 and 221,000 job equivalents.
• 2060: projected annual losses reach between 158,000 and 349,000 job equivalents.

A regional comparison with the Maldives

A combined projection for Sri Lanka and the Maldives puts annual losses by 2040 at approximately 147,000 full-time job equivalents and $26.6 billion in economic output. Sri Lanka accounts for about 145,000 of those job equivalents and roughly $26 billion of the output loss.

Using those figures, Sri Lanka represents about 99% of the combined projected loss of working time and about 98% of the financial loss. The regional total is therefore dominated by Sri Lanka's exposure.

The 145,000 estimate matches the lower end of Sri Lanka's wider 2040 employment range. The emissions scenario and valuation assumptions attached to the combined $26.6 billion projection are not specified in the published account. Readers therefore have a range for future working time losses, alongside a regional financial estimate with less detail about its assumptions.

What protection looks like at work

The ILO recommends regulated work and rest schedules, adequate drinking water, improved ventilation, cooling measures and changes to working hours. These measures address different parts of the same problem: how much heat workers absorb, how much they generate through effort, and how effectively they can cool down.

Changing working hours can move demanding tasks away from the hottest part of the day. Planned rest periods give the body time to recover. Accessible drinking water helps replace fluid lost through sweating, while ventilation and cooling can reduce heat exposure inside workplaces.

Agriculture and construction deserve particular attention because their workers face both high temperatures and heavy physical demands. Protection in these sectors must fit the actual work setting, including outdoor locations where a building's cooling system offers little help.

Employers also need to account for the seasonal concentration of losses. Arrangements prepared before April can be more useful than decisions made only after extreme heat disrupts work. The report's recommendations put worker protection and the preservation of productive working time within the same response.

Why heat protection matters to the recovery

Sri Lanka's effort to improve productivity depends partly on whether people can work safely through hotter conditions. Productivity means the amount produced with a given amount of labour and other resources. Heat reduces that capacity when workers need more time to complete a task or must stop to recover.

The country's recovery and jobs debate has already drawn attention to the gap between economic growth and household security. Real economic growth reached 5% in both 2024 and 2025, yet about two thirds of workers remained in informal employment and poverty was estimated at 16.9% in 2025.

Those conditions make workplace protection a practical economic concern. An economy seeking better jobs and higher output must also preserve the hours people can work safely. The ILO's findings connect climate adaptation directly to that goal through specific changes to schedules, water access and workplace conditions.

Sri Lanka's choices operate on two timescales. Employers can reduce exposure through immediate workplace measures, while global emissions influence the scale of warming over coming decades. The difference between the report's lower and higher projections shows why both responses matter.

Key Points

• Increased workplace heat stress cost Sri Lanka working time equivalent to more than 120,000 full-time jobs in 2023, the ILO estimates.
• The estimated additional economic loss was $6.5 billion compared with average conditions during 1985 to 2014.
• Agriculture accounted for 48% of lost job equivalents, and April through June accounted for 35% of the annual total.
• Projected annual losses rise to between 145,000 and 221,000 job equivalents by 2040, and between 158,000 and 349,000 by 2060.
• The ILO recommends planned rest, drinking water, ventilation, cooling and adjusted working hours to protect workers and reduce lost production.