Thailand's Exports Jump 24%, but Record Imports Push September Trade Deficit to $5.9 Billion

Record imports outpace a powerful export surge

Thailand exported $38.438 billion of goods in September 2026, up 24% from a year earlier, yet recorded a trade deficit of about $5.9 billion as imports surged to a record $44.296 billion. Commerce Ministry figures released on October 26 show an economy selling more electronics and food abroad while spending even faster on energy, machinery and components.

September marked the 27th consecutive month of export growth. Excluding oil related products, gold and military equipment, exports rose 28.2%, showing that the increase extended across other goods. Electronic component shipments jumped 66%, supported by demand connected to artificial intelligence, data centers and international manufacturing networks.

Imports rose 50.4% from September 2025, accelerating sharply from August's 25.1% increase. The monthly trade deficit reached $5.857 billion, compared with $2.48 billion in August. A trade deficit means a country buys more goods from abroad than it sells overseas.

Thailand's first nine months produced exports of $304.589 billion, up 19.6%, and imports of $348.283 billion, up 37.8%. The resulting deficit was $43.694 billion. For factories, the purchases include equipment and inputs that can support production. For businesses paying higher fuel and transport bills, they also represent immediate pressure on costs.

Why the September figures surprised markets

September's export growth exceeded the market's median forecast of 18% by six percentage points. Imports rose faster than even the highest forecast of 41.5% in a survey of economists. The expected trade deficit had been about $1.8 billion, leaving the actual shortfall more than three times that estimate.

August had already delivered strong exports, up 24.3% to $34.62 billion, alongside imports of $37.10 billion. September therefore brought little change in the annual pace of export growth but a much faster increase in imports. The monthly deficit more than doubled, rising by about $3.38 billion.

Thailand had accumulated a $37.84 billion deficit during January through August. September added almost $5.9 billion to that gap in a single month. August was the 11th consecutive month with a deficit, placing September's result within a sustained run of imports exceeding exports.

The pattern was visible after October's trade reversal in 2025, when Thailand recorded a $3.4 billion deficit despite continuing export growth. Imports from China and shipments to the United States were central then, and both trading relationships remain central to the latest figures.

AI demand lifts exports and the import bill

Electronics help explain both sides of Thailand's trade accounts. Overseas customers are ordering more components and equipment linked to digital infrastructure, while manufacturers in Thailand are buying imported machinery and inputs to meet that demand. Equipment purchases enter the import bill when they arrive, even if the resulting goods are exported later.

Global manufacturing activity strengthened in September, with the purchasing managers' index reaching 53, its highest level in 55 months. The index uses company surveys to track changes in business conditions. A reading above 50 generally indicates expansion. Stronger new orders and manufacturers building inventories supported the latest increase.

The Institute of Trade Strategies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, or UTCC, identified a large increase in electronics related imports before September. Imports of electronic components and electrical appliances rose by $40.1 billion, or 92.4%, during the first eight months of 2026.

The institute also found that electronic component imports rose from 1.17 times the value of electronics exports in January through August 2025 to 1.40 times in the same period of 2026. It suggested that manufacturers may be accumulating raw materials or retaining a smaller share of production value within Thailand.

Domestic value added is the part of a product's value created locally, through work such as manufacturing, design and assembly. A factory can increase its export sales while spending heavily on imported parts. The amount left for local wages, suppliers and profits depends partly on how much of the product is made in Thailand.

Food and fruit join the September expansion

September's export gains extended beyond technology. Rubber, frozen chicken, pet food, fresh durian, mangosteen and longan all contributed to growth. Continued fruit supplies from southern Thailand helped support shipments of fresh produce.

Agricultural performance has varied across the year. UTCC's assessment of the first eight months showed agricultural exports declining 1.2%, while exports of processed agricultural goods rose 0.6%. Industrial goods expanded 26.5% over that period, accounting for most of the export increase.

September's stronger food and fruit shipments therefore offer a broader source of export earnings after a period dominated by industry. Growers and processors still face different risks from electronics manufacturers. Weather affects harvests, while refrigeration, fuel and delivery costs influence how much exporters earn from perishable goods.

Wichian Kaeowsombat, director of UTCC's Institute of Trade Strategies, identified El Niño and its effects on agricultural production among the risks to the outlook. The institute called for measures addressing supply and drought risks for rice and cassava, alongside sugar price issues.

The United States becomes a larger customer

The United States remained Thailand's largest export market, accounting for 26.5% of exports in the latest September account. UTCC's figures for January through August put the American share at 24.3%, with shipments rising 42.6% to $64.7 billion. In August alone, exports to the United States increased 48.7%, compared with 15.5% growth in sales to China.

America's importance has grown substantially. UTCC put its share of Thai exports at 12.7% in 2019 and 20.3% in 2025. The first eight months of 2026 therefore showed a share almost twice the 2019 level.

Strong American demand gives Thai manufacturers a large market, but greater dependence also concentrates exposure to US tariff decisions. Wichian identified reciprocal tariff rates, US Section 301 trade measures and the durability of AI demand as factors shaping future orders. Section 301 allows Washington to take action over trading practices it considers unfair.

Some customers have placed orders early ahead of tariff measures, according to the institute. Such purchases can lift current exports while shifting demand away from later months. UTCC recommended diversifying markets and products, advancing negotiations with Washington and accelerating the proposed Thailand–EU free trade agreement.

Trade negotiations remain unfinished

Thailand's export expansion has continued while Bangkok and Washington work toward a final reciprocal trade agreement. Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun said on September 8 that the principal issues had been settled and negotiations had reached the final wording stage.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said on September 20 that Washington had introduced an additional condition. No completion date was given, and his subsequent visit to the United States ended without an announcement of a final agreement.

The main developments unfolded as follows:

• January through August 2026: Thailand accumulated a trade deficit of $37.84 billion.
• September 8: Suphajee said the principal US trade negotiation issues had been settled.
• September 20: Anutin said Washington had added a condition.
• September 25: Anutin arrived in London seeking stronger commercial ties and investment.
• October 23: UTCC published its export outlook using figures through August.
• October 26: September trade figures showed a monthly deficit of about $5.9 billion.

Rules of origin are part of the commercial stakes. They determine where a product is considered to have been made and whether it qualifies for particular tariff treatment. For manufacturers using imported components, the production work completed in Thailand can affect the customs treatment of the finished goods.

Chinese machinery supplies a growing industrial economy

Chinese customs figures show exports to Thailand of $83.3 billion during January through August, against imports from Thailand of $36 billion. That left China with a bilateral surplus of $47.3 billion. In August, Chinese exports to Thailand reached $11.3 billion, more than twice its roughly $5 billion of purchases from Thailand.

Electrical machinery and equipment formed China's largest export category to Thailand in August. Machinery and mechanical appliances were another major category, illustrating the role of imported equipment and components in Thai production.

Chinese and Thai customs authorities use different methods to compile their figures, so the bilateral Chinese balance needs to be considered separately from Thailand's worldwide trade balance. The manufacturing issue for Thailand is how much more production it can develop locally as its export industries expand. UTCC recommended investment in domestic electronic component manufacturing to reduce dependence on imported inputs.

Hormuz disruption squeezes Gulf sales

The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting Thailand through higher energy and shipping costs and weaker demand in Gulf markets. Thailand's trade promotion office in Dubai said exports to the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, fell 1.68% during January through August 2026.

Excluding gems and jewelry, Thai exports to the six GCC countries fell about 27.73%. Jewelry helped support the total while vehicles, electrical appliances, and canned and processed seafood declined. The difference shows how heavily performance in one product group can influence a regional export figure.

The Dubai office cited International Monetary Fund projections for the GCC economy to contract 4.8% in 2026, with Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain suffering the largest falls. Imports across GCC countries other than Oman were expected to decline by roughly 5% to 16%.

Shipping companies have redirected cargo through alternative ports, including Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates and Sohar and Salalah in Oman, followed by transport over land. Those routes add time, freight costs and insurance charges for war risks. Thai exporters also face possible disruption to European logistics if protests develop into strikes.

The IMF scenario cited by the Dubai office projects GCC growth of 9.1% in 2027 if Hormuz reopens around March. Kuwait's imports could rise 25.6%, Qatar's 18.8% and Bahrain's 18.2% as businesses replenish stocks and repair infrastructure. The office identified food, essential goods, construction materials, vehicles and electrical appliances as potential Thai exports for that recovery. A reopening delayed until the second half of 2027 could push the recovery into 2028.

Higher forecasts, followed by slower growth

Nuntapong Jiralerspong, director of Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office, raised the 2026 export growth forecast from 11% to 15–16%. He said growth could reach 19.6%, taking exports to about $404.9 billion, a record. Electronics demand, AI infrastructure investment and a relatively low export base in the final quarter of 2025 support that stronger scenario.

UTCC's October 23 forecast put 2026 exports at $401 billion, up 17.8%. It projected exports to the United States of $98.9 billion and electronics exports of $90.8 billion. Its forecast preceded the September release, which showed that Thailand's cumulative deficit had already exceeded the institute's projected annual shortfall of $41.7 billion.

The two institutions expect slower export growth in 2027, although their estimates differ. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office's preliminary forecast is 2–4%, partly because exports will be measured against 2026's high level. UTCC projects 7.4% growth to $431 billion, with a range of 0.8% to 11.1% depending on external conditions.

UTCC's central scenario also puts 2027 imports at $479 billion and the deficit at $48.1 billion. Thailand could therefore keep increasing exports while continuing to spend more on imported goods. Future orders, local component production, energy costs and the terms of US market access will determine how much benefit the export surge brings to businesses and workers.

Key Points

• September exports rose 24% to $38.438 billion, marking 27 consecutive months of growth.
• Imports surged 50.4% to a record $44.296 billion, leaving a deficit of about $5.9 billion.
• The deficit for January through September reached $43.694 billion.
• Electronic component exports jumped 66%, while machinery, component and energy purchases increased import spending.
• The United States remained Thailand's largest export market as a final bilateral trade agreement awaited completion.
• Hormuz disruption weakened Gulf demand and increased shipping costs.
• The government raised its 2026 export growth forecast to 15–16%, with a stronger scenario near 19.6%.
• Government and university forecasts both point to slower export growth in 2027.