Uzbekistan Births Fall 8.6% From 2023 Peak as Population Growth Slows

Births decline while the population keeps growing

Uzbekistan recorded 879,599 live births in 2025, according to the National Statistics Committee, marking a second consecutive annual decline after the country reached its highest birth total since 1991. The figure was about 82,400, or 8.6%, below the 962,000 births registered in 2023.

The committee's 2025 birth release, published on January 30, 2026, puts an exact number on a slowdown that continued into 2026. Births fell from 926,400 in 2024 to approximately 879,600 in 2025, a decrease of 46,800, or about 5.1%.

During January through June 2026, another 373,400 births were recorded. That was more than 32,000 fewer than in the same six months of 2025. The comparison between matching periods shows that the decline extended beyond the two completed calendar years.

Uzbekistan's population nevertheless continued to expand. Its permanent population exceeded 38.23 million by the end of 2025, and births still substantially outnumbered deaths in the first half of 2026. The country is experiencing fewer births alongside continued, but slower, population growth.

How the country reached its recent peak

Uzbekistan's birth totals have followed a long rise after a substantial decline during the 1990s. The country recorded 723,400 births in 1991 and 527,600 in 2000, a reduction of 195,800, or about 27%.

Births then recovered, passing the 1991 total by 2015 and reaching 962,000 in 2023. The main stages show how the latest decline follows more than two decades of growth:

• 1991: 723,400 births; 1995: 678,000.
• 2000: 527,600 births; 2005: 533,500.
• 2010: 634,800 births; 2015: 734,100.
• 2020: 841,800 births; 2021: 905,200.
• 2022: 932,200 births; 2023: 962,000.
• 2024: 926,400 births; 2025: approximately 879,600.
• January through June 2026: 373,400 births.

The 2025 total remained 37,800 above the 841,800 births recorded in 2020. The recent decline has therefore brought annual births below their peak while leaving them higher than at the beginning of that decade.

What the first half of 2026 shows

Uzbekistan registered 191,100 live births during January through March 2026, according to figures attributed to the National Statistics Committee. That was 7,000 fewer than in the same quarter of 2025, a decrease of approximately 3.5%.

The first quarter included 98,500 boys and 92,600 girls, representing 51.5% and 48.5% of births respectively. Rural areas accounted for 97,400 births, or 50.9%, while urban areas recorded 93,700, or 49.1%.

By the end of June, the birth total had reached 373,400. The decline of more than 32,000 compared with the first half of 2025 was larger than the decrease recorded in the first quarter alone, showing that the shortfall widened as the year progressed.

The half year total covers six months, so its useful comparison is with the same six months of another year. A completed annual total for 2026 was not yet available in the figures discussed here.

Samarkand leads in numbers, Surkhandarya in rates

Samarkand province recorded the largest number of births in 2025, with 106,266, followed by Kashkadarya with 99,656 and Fergana with 98,319. Together, those three provinces accounted for 304,241 births, approximately 34.6% of the national total.

Surkhandarya recorded 81,885 births, Andijan 79,672 and Namangan 75,689. Tashkent region registered 64,245, while Tashkent city recorded 62,318. At the lower end of the regional totals were Navoi with 24,127 and Syrdarya with 21,042.

Samarkand was also the most populous province, with about 4.37 million residents at the end of 2025. Syrdarya had approximately 946,300 residents. Their birth totals partly reflect the large difference in the number of people living in each province.

The Family and Gender Scientific Research Institute's demographic analysis gives a different ranking when births are measured relative to population. Surkhandarya had the highest crude birth rate at 27.5 births per 1,000 residents, followed by Kashkadarya at 27.1 and Samarkand at 24.5.

Karakalpakstan had the lowest rate at 19.2 per 1,000, followed by Tashkent city at 19.8 and Tashkent region at 20.5. Surkhandarya's rate was 8.3 births per 1,000 residents higher than Karakalpakstan's, a gap of about 43%.

Why the birth rate figures need careful explanation

The institute's analysis puts Uzbekistan's national crude birth rate at 23.2 births per 1,000 residents in 2025. A crude birth rate measures births against the whole population, including children and older people. It helps compare places with very different population sizes.

Macrotrends gives a lower figure for the same year. Its Uzbekistan birth dataset lists 18.58 births per 1,000 people in 2023, 18.14 in 2024 and 17.70 in 2025. The reason for the gap between its 2025 figure and the institute's 23.2 is not explained in those publications.

Macrotrends defines the measure as live births during a year per 1,000 people, using the population estimated at the middle of that year. Its estimated rate for 2026 is 17.26, a projected decline of 2.48% from its 2025 figure.

Uzbekistan's first quarter statistics give a birth rate of 20.2 per 1,000 people for January through March 2026. That figure describes the first quarter, while the Macrotrends estimate concerns the full year. The periods and statistical series need to stay attached to their figures.

A fertility rate answers another question: how many children a woman would have over her lifetime if current patterns continued. The figures at the centre of this story measure either registered births or births relative to the total population.

Uzbekistan still has a higher rate than regional peers

The Family and Gender Scientific Research Institute's comparison places Uzbekistan above Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Against Uzbekistan's 23.2 births per 1,000 residents, it gives rates of 18.2 for Kazakhstan and 19.4 for Kyrgyzstan.

On those figures, Uzbekistan recorded five more births per 1,000 residents than Kazakhstan and 3.8 more than Kyrgyzstan. The comparison also lists Russia at 8.6, Moldova at 9.8, Azerbaijan at 10 and Armenia at 11.1.

Uzbekistan therefore combines a falling annual birth count with a birth rate that remains higher than those of several countries in the comparison. For maternity services, childcare and future school places, the scale remains substantial: almost 880,000 children were born in 2025.

A smaller generation is reaching parenthood

Economist Mirkomil Xolboev identifies changes in the size of successive generations as one possible explanation for the decline. People born during the lower birth years of the late 1990s and early 2000s are now moving through ages when many people form families and have children.

The historical figures help explain his argument. Uzbekistan recorded 527,600 births in 2000, compared with 723,400 in 1991. A smaller generation can later produce fewer births simply because it contains fewer potential parents, even when family sizes stay similar.

Demographers describe this delayed effect as demographic inertia. A change in births can echo decades later, when the children born during that period become adults. Xolboev presents this shift in population structure as a possible major contributor to the current slowdown.

The relative contribution of smaller generations, changes in family size and delayed parenthood has not been quantified in the figures discussed here. Establishing that balance would require more detail about the ages of parents and births among different age groups.

Marriage and economic pressures add context

Uzbekistan registered 92,300 marriages and 24,800 divorces during the first half of 2026. Those figures sit alongside discussion of later marriage, later first births, longer periods in education, migration, urban growth and pressure on household finances.

Housing, employment and the cost of raising children can affect when people feel ready to start a family. Education and work may also change the timing of marriage and childbirth. These are possible influences identified in discussion of the decline, rather than measured shares of the reduction.

Kazakhstan offers a nearby comparison. Births there reached a peak in 2021 before declining in subsequent years. Explanations discussed for that change include the end of a surge in births associated with the pandemic period, economic conditions and changes in the population reaching reproductive ages.

For Uzbekistan, the practical issue is both the number of children being born and where families live. Samarkand's large birth total and Surkhandarya's high rate point to different kinds of demand: a large number of children in one province and a greater concentration of births relative to population in another.

More deaths narrow the gap with births

Uzbekistan recorded 43,500 deaths in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 2,100 from the same period in 2025. Births fell by 7,000 over that period, so the gap between births and deaths narrowed from approximately 156,700 to 147,600.

During the first half of 2026, deaths totalled 86,900. Subtracting that figure from 373,400 births gives a natural increase of approximately 286,500 people. Natural increase means births minus deaths; migration is another component of population change.

The permanent population reached 38,382,700 on April 1, 2026, up 1.8% from a year earlier. Figures discussed for the first half put annual population growth at 1.7%, compared with 2% a year before.

Uzbekistan's recent figures describe a growing population with a smaller margin between births and deaths. The country still adds hundreds of thousands of people through natural increase, while fewer births are slowing the pace.

Key Points

• Uzbekistan registered 879,599 live births in 2025, about 8.6% below its 2023 peak.
• Births declined for two consecutive full years, with a further fall during the first half of 2026.
• January through June 2026 brought 373,400 births, more than 32,000 fewer than a year earlier.
• Samarkand recorded the most births in 2025; Surkhandarya had the highest regional birth rate.
• The institute's national birth rate of 23.2 per 1,000 differs from the Macrotrends figure of 17.70 for 2025.
• Economist Mirkomil Xolboev identifies smaller generations reaching parenthood as a possible contributor.
• Births exceeded deaths by approximately 286,500 in the first half of 2026, supporting continued population growth.