Philippines Sets 75% Emissions Target Through 2035, With Most Cuts Dependent on International Support

A larger domestic commitment, but finance remains decisive

The Philippines has renewed its pledge to reduce or avoid 75% of projected cumulative greenhouse gas emissions during 2025 to 2035, raising the portion it will deliver through domestic resources to 7 percentage points. The remaining 68 percentage points depend on international climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building.

The government's 2026 climate commitment also projects that, if all identified policies and measures are implemented, the country could absorb more greenhouse gases than it releases across the entire period. Forestry and other land use are central to that projection, making ecosystem protection a major part of the pledge alongside changes in energy, transport, agriculture, industry and waste.

The 75% headline matches the previous commitment, but the accounting period, domestic contribution and treatment of land use have changed. The earlier pledge covered 2020 to 2030 and made 72.29 percentage points conditional on international support. That left an unconditional contribution of 2.71 percentage points, compared with 7 now.

Environment and Natural Resources Secretary Juan Miguel T. Cuna said President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. had approved the updated Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC. Speaking at the Philippine Net Zero Conference in Pasay City on September 15, 2026, Cuna presented it as an economic program connecting climate action with energy security, fiscal resilience and social protection.

The distinction between a promise and a projection matters. The formal 75% target is measured against a scenario of future emissions, not against current emissions. The projected net sink outcome goes further than that target and depends on delivering the wider package of measures.

What the 75% target actually measures

The government's technical accounting appendix identifies 2015 as the base year and 2025 to 2035 as the reference period. Its target is calculated against cumulative projected business as usual emissions and removals, meaning the total expected across those years under the reference scenario.

The distinction prevents a common misreading: the Philippines is not promising to make emissions in 2035 exactly 75% lower than emissions in 2015. Instead, it is committing to reduce or avoid three quarters of the projected cumulative total, including the effect of forestry and other land use.

The appendix puts that reference total at 1,309.53 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or MtCO2e, including forestry and other land use. Excluding that sector, the total is 3,605.09 MtCO2e. Carbon dioxide equivalent converts different greenhouse gases into a common measure according to their warming effect.

Applied directly to the stated net reference total, a 75% reduction would leave about 327.38 MtCO2e over the period. That remains positive. The separate projection of emissions below zero therefore describes the modeled potential of all identified measures, rather than the minimum numerical outcome implied by the headline target. The appendix says the target was set below the modeled level to make it achievable.

The accounting covers carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride. A conference report described the renewed pledge as retaining a 2030 deadline, but both official documents specify 2025 to 2035. The official reference period is the basis for understanding the new commitment.

How much has the domestic share increased?

The unconditional contribution has risen by 4.29 percentage points, from 2.71 to 7. It is now about 2.6 times its previous size. As a share of the entire 75 percentage point commitment, the domestic component has increased from about 3.6% to 9.3%.

International support still underpins about 90.7% of the promised reduction and avoidance. These percentages describe portions of the emissions target, not shares of the financial cost. A 7 percentage point unconditional commitment does not mean the government has promised to pay 7% of the program's budget.

The sequence of commitments and implementation steps shows how the new pledge developed:

• 2021: The Philippines submitted its previous NDC, targeting 75% reduction and avoidance during 2020 to 2030.
• February 2025: The latest round of updated national climate pledges was due; the Philippines did not submit by that deadline.
• April 2026: The Philippines signed an Article 6 implementation agreement with Singapore.
• September 8, 2026: The updated Philippine NDC was published and reported submitted to the United Nations.
• September 15, 2026: Cuna discussed the approved pledge at the Philippine Net Zero Conference in Pasay City.

NDCs are national commitments under the Paris Agreement, updated every five years. The Philippine government argues that this version advances the earlier pledge through a larger unconditional contribution, wider coverage and improved analysis, even though the headline percentage remains unchanged.

Forests make the biggest difference to the net balance

Forestry and other land use account for projected cumulative removals of 2,295.56 MtCO2e in the reference scenario. Those removals offset approximately 64% of the 3,605.09 MtCO2e projected from the other sectors. This explains why including land use changes the national emissions balance so sharply.

The appendix says the sector has been an annual net sink since 2020. It also describes forestry and other land use as a cumulative net emissions source across the historical 2010 to 2020 series. Those statements concern different measures: a sector can shift to annual removals while its total over an earlier period still records more emissions than absorption.

The government attributes the sharp decline in annual net emissions in 2020 mainly to changes in land use, including declining cropland and continuing forest gain. It says reduced agricultural pressure on forests and an expanding forest sink contributed to the change.

The appendix also describes forestry measures as reducing cumulative business as usual emissions by about 2,296 MtCO2e, with mitigation in other sectors bringing the modeled national total below zero. The relationship between that mitigation figure and the similar reference scenario removal figure needs careful explanation in implementation reporting. The two should not simply be added together by readers.

Fire emissions are included in the national inventory, and the updated target makes no allowance for natural disturbances on managed lands. Forest protection and accurate measurement are therefore central to the credibility of the projected sink, rather than optional additions to an energy transition.

Energy leads emissions, while grid constraints delay projects

The reference scenario assigns energy 1,639.8 MtCO2e of cumulative emissions, transport 658.81, agriculture 693.9, waste 422.67, and industrial processes and product use 189.89. Energy and transport together account for about 64% of projected emissions excluding forestry and other land use.

The Philippine Energy Plan 2023 to 2050 targets renewable energy at 35% of power generation by 2030 and 50% by 2040. The earlier climate commitment implementation plan estimated that renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency could reduce cumulative emissions by approximately 990 MtCO2e during 2020 to 2030. That estimate belongs to the earlier period and should not be treated as a quantified contribution to the new target.

At the September conference, Jerome Cainglet, president and chief operating officer of Energy Development Corporation, said transmission constraints were blocking around 600 megawatts of potential wind projects in Ilocos Norte and another 150 megawatts in Guimaras. Together, that represents about 750 megawatts of potential capacity.

Cainglet also said geothermal plants in Leyte sometimes could not operate at full capacity because the grid could not accept their output. Electricity that cannot reach consumers cannot displace fossil fuel generation, even when the renewable resource and generating equipment are available.

The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines was targeting completion of six transmission projects worth P23.5 billion in 2026, including the P3.6 billion Panay to Guimaras interconnection. The Energy Regulatory Commission approved a P2.79 billion Laoag power quality project in May to manage voltage fluctuations as more wind and solar generation connects. These are planned or approved investments, not confirmation that all constraints have been resolved.

Finance without adding to national debt

The NDC says the Philippines will draw on public and private finance, alongside technology development, technology transfer and capacity building. It calls for international support that is highly concessional, does not create debt, and can be accessed through simpler, direct arrangements.

This demand reflects the country's position that wealthy industrialized nations should provide support consistent with their greater historical contribution to warming and stronger financial capacity. Developing country leaders and civil society representatives have advocated grants rather than loans, so climate action does not increase existing debt burdens.

Cuna urged investors and financial institutions to help develop projects that can attract funding. He stated the financing priority at the Philippine Net Zero Conference:

"We need capital that builds. Let us stop treating climate projects as high-risk anomalies; make green financing accessible, scalable, and non-debt creating," Cuna said.

Michael Williamson, chief of the Energy section at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, offered a different financing option at the same conference: loans with lower or zero interest for particular activities. Such loans may reduce the cost of investment, but they remain distinct from grants and from the NDC's demand for support that creates no debt.

Cuna identified a wider delivery framework covering the national long term strategy, NDC Implementation Plan, Just Transition Framework, Carbon Market Policy Framework, and Financial and Investment Plan. The NDC assigns its implementation plan responsibility for guiding financing strategies, but does not give a total funding requirement or a timetable for securing the conditional support.

Carbon trading could bring investment, with accounting safeguards

The Philippines plans to use cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to attract investment and technology. These arrangements can allow countries to cooperate on emissions reductions, including transfers of recognized mitigation outcomes, while other forms of cooperation operate without trading.

The government reports an implementation agreement with Singapore signed in April 2026. Its Joint Crediting Mechanism with Japan includes five approved methodologies and 31 projects in active development. Methodologies establish how a type of project's emissions reductions should be calculated; developing projects are not the same as completed projects delivering verified reductions.

Potential bilateral agreements are also being pursued with New Zealand, Hungary and South Korea. Seven activities under the earlier Clean Development Mechanism are beginning a transition, and 14 mitigation activities have been submitted for prior consideration.

The NDC requires governance, transparency and accounting safeguards to prevent the same emissions reduction from being counted by both the Philippines and a purchasing country. Corresponding adjustments are accounting changes used to avoid that double counting. The government is developing an Article 6 strategy, domestic monitoring systems and a carbon registry.

Congress is considering bills for a compliance market, but the appendix does not identify an enacted system or a decision date. Carbon markets are therefore part of the prospective financing structure, not evidence that the resources needed for the conditional target have already been secured.

Adaptation and public budgets must match the pledge

The NDC identifies the National Adaptation Plan 2023 to 2050 as the anchor for adaptation. It describes adaptation as a continuous priority because climate hazards already threaten infrastructure, livelihoods, agriculture, fisheries, water resources and public health.

With the population projected to reach 123.96 million by 2035, the government connects emissions policy with food security, poverty reduction and economic resilience. Its approach includes ecosystem protection, indigenous knowledge, gender equality, disability inclusion and support for vulnerable communities.

John Leo Algo, national coordinator of Aksyon Klima Pilipinas, argues that domestic budgets need to reflect those priorities. In his assessment, 2026 funding for nature based solutions was 28 times lower than funding for climate tagged roads, bridges and other conventional infrastructure, and five times below an ASEAN spending benchmark. Those ratios are his assessment, not figures established by the NDC.

Algo also argues that easing restrictions on the coal moratorium and declining to join a global coalition for moving away from fossil fuels weaken the government's direction. His criticism highlights a practical tension: a larger domestic commitment still needs spending and energy policies capable of delivering it.

The transition extends beyond electricity. Oliver Chan, executive vice president and chief sustainability officer of Arthaland Corporation, identified cement and steel as major sources of emissions embedded in construction materials. Cleaner electricity for building operations does not remove emissions generated when those materials are produced.

Consultation has widened, but delivery needs verification

The Climate Change Commission's stakeholder consultation statement describes a hybrid session in Quezon City with more than 200 participants. Representation included 14 national government agencies, 22 development partners, 35 civil society and nonprofit organizations, five academic institutions, three marginalized groups and 26 private sector entities.

The commission and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources jointly lead development of the updated NDC. Commissioner Rachel Anne S. Herrera said consultation inputs would be reviewed and reflected in the final text. Algo acknowledged progress in participation while calling for timelier communications and clearer feedback on how contributions were incorporated.

Executive Order 174 of 2014 designates the commission as the lead agency for the national greenhouse gas inventory and NDC monitoring, reporting and verification. The updated pledge builds on sectoral systems, the national inventory and the Paris Agreement's transparency requirements.

Important delivery details are still unresolved publicly: the total cost, how much of the previous pledge has been implemented, when international support will arrive, and the schedule for the updated implementation plan. The projected cumulative net sink is also not a dated national commitment to reach and maintain net zero in a particular year.

Francis Giles B. Puno, president of First Gen Holdings Corporation, said progress should be measured by partnerships formed and projects delivered rather than commitments alone. That is the practical test of the new pledge: verified reductions and removals, functioning infrastructure, secured finance and protection for the people affected by the transition.

Key Points

• The Philippines targets 75% reduction and avoidance against projected cumulative emissions during 2025 to 2035.
• The unconditional contribution rises from 2.71 to 7 percentage points; 68 percentage points depend on international support.
• Forestry and other land use account for projected cumulative removals of 2,295.56 MtCO2e in the reference scenario.
• A cumulative net sink is a modeled outcome of the full policy package, distinct from the minimum 75% target.
• Transmission constraints affect about 750 megawatts of potential wind projects in Ilocos Norte and Guimaras.
• Implementation costs, financing commitments and the delivery timetable still need fuller public detail.