World Bank Clarifies Timor-Leste Poverty Estimates as New Survey Report Nears Release

Three poverty figures, three different readings

The World Bank estimates that 71.7 percent of Timor-Leste's population falls below an international poverty threshold of US$4.20 per person per day in 2026. The government reports a national poverty rate of 37 percent for 2024, based on a newer household survey. A third figure, 44.3 percent, is the World Bank's 2026 estimate using a lower international threshold of US$3.00.

These figures differ in their reference year, poverty threshold and underlying evidence. The World Bank's April 2026 Macro Poverty Outlook uses projections from the 2014 Survey of Living Standards, not a fresh measurement of households in 2026. The government's 37 percent figure comes from the 2024 survey and uses the national poverty line.

In its technical note, the World Bank explains that international poverty lines support comparisons between countries, while the national line is the more relevant benchmark for domestic policy. Neither the higher international estimate nor the lower national result, by itself, disproves the other.

The next development is publication of the full 2024 survey report. On September 23, 2026, National Institute of Statistics President Elias dos Santos Ferreira said the report was finalized, had been presented to the Council of Ministers and was scheduled for release in October 2026. That publication should provide the detailed evidence needed to examine the new national result and update the World Bank's international estimates.

Why the threshold changes the result

A poverty line sets the minimum level of resources used to classify someone as poor. Raising that threshold brings more people below it, even if their circumstances have not changed. In the World Bank's 2026 estimates, moving from US$3.00 to US$4.20 increases the measured share by 27.4 percentage points, from 44.3 percent to 71.7 percent.

The World Bank, the institution responsible for the international benchmarks, states the distinction directly:

A higher line simply sets a higher bar, meaning more people fall below it and are classified as poor. This does not, however, mean that living conditions have worsened.

Since 2025, the institution has used three international thresholds: US$3.00 for countries with low incomes, US$4.20 for those with lower middle incomes and US$8.30 for those with upper middle incomes. Each is expressed per person per day in 2021 purchasing power parity, or PPP.

The thresholds are grounded in national poverty lines across groups of countries. US$3.00 reflects the median national line in 25 countries with low incomes. US$4.20 reflects the median in 47 countries with lower middle incomes. The median is the middle value when those national lines are ordered from lowest to highest.

What purchasing power parity means

PPP converts money into a common unit that accounts for differences in prices between countries. The purpose is to compare the amount of goods and services people can obtain, rather than simply compare currencies at market exchange rates. The reference to 2021 identifies the price basis used for these international thresholds.

That distinction matters in Timor-Leste, where poverty lines expressed as daily dollar amounts can appear directly comparable when they are not. Historical reporting places the national poverty line at US$1.52 per person per day in 2014. The World Bank gives the current national line as US$2.93 when expressed in 2021 PPP terms. Those amounts use different price and measurement bases and should not be treated as competing descriptions of the same dollar threshold.

The national line reflects local prices and consumption patterns, including the cost of basic needs such as food, housing, health and education. International lines instead provide shared benchmarks across countries. Their usefulness depends on the question being asked: comparison with other economies or assessment of poverty under Timor-Leste's own definition.

Why Timor-Leste is assessed against two lines

The World Bank places Timor-Leste in the lower middle income category because its gross national income per person, measured using the Atlas method, was US$1,510 in 2025. The classification range for that category in 2026 is US$1,136 to US$4,495. This makes US$4.20 the corresponding international poverty benchmark.

Gross national income per person is a national average, not a measure of what every household receives. It determines the country's income classification but does not show how resources are distributed or replace a household poverty survey.

The World Bank also reports results at US$3.00 because Timor-Leste is near the lower end of its income category and its national poverty line, US$2.93 in 2021 PPP, is close to that threshold. The difference between those two lines is just US$0.07 per person per day in the same PPP units.

The institution's Tetum technical note gives the same explanation. Reporting both international rates recognizes the country's formal income classification while retaining a benchmark closer to its national poverty line. Proximity between thresholds, however, does not make a projected international rate interchangeable with a national survey result.

What the 2014 baseline can establish

The household evidence behind the April 2026 outlook comes from the 2014 Timor-Leste Survey of Living Standards. It collected detailed information on consumption of food, goods and services, housing, health and education. At the international thresholds now expressed in 2021 PPP, measured poverty in that survey was 44.0 percent at US$3.00 and 71.3 percent at US$4.20.

For subsequent years, the World Bank estimates poverty using assumptions about how growth in gross domestic product per person translates into changes in poverty. Its technical note classifies 2015 through 2026 as estimates and 2027 through 2028 as forecasts. None of those annual figures represents a separate household survey measurement.

The Macro Poverty Outlook covers 150 developing countries and is published twice yearly, before the Spring and Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund. This schedule provides regular economic assessments, but it does not mean that every country's household evidence is refreshed twice a year.

World Bank country representative David Freedman has explained that the 2024 survey data were not available for use when the April outlook was prepared. His clarification is consistent with the technical note: the 71.7 percent figure is an estimate derived from older household evidence and subsequent economic developments, not a confirmed result from the 2024 survey.

The projections show decline after 2023

The April outlook projects poverty at the US$3.00 line to fall from 48.3 percent in 2023 to 42.1 percent in 2028. That is a decline of 6.2 percentage points. At US$4.20, the projected fall is from 74.5 percent to 70.1 percent, a reduction of 4.4 percentage points.

The 2026 estimates sit between those endpoints: 44.3 percent at US$3.00 and 71.7 percent at US$4.20. The World Bank attributes the downward trajectory to actual and expected economic growth. It does not describe the difference between the two thresholds as evidence of deteriorating living conditions.

The longer comparison requires care. The 2026 estimates are slightly above the directly measured 2014 rates, by 0.3 percentage points at US$3.00 and 0.4 percentage points at US$4.20. The projected decline after 2023 therefore does not amount to evidence of an uninterrupted fall since 2014. It is a modeled trajectory whose starting point remains the older survey.

Growth also does not establish how gains reach individual households. Reported real GDP growth per person was approximately 1.1 percent in 2021, 2.5 percent in 2022, 1.2 percent in 2023, 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025. These figures describe economic recovery, but they cannot independently verify a poverty rate or show whether rural households benefited as much as urban households.

What the 2024 survey reports

The government's reported national poverty rate fell from 41.8 percent in 2014 to 37 percent in 2024, a reduction of 4.8 percentage points. The newer survey covered approximately 7,500 households across Timor-Leste. Its summary results were endorsed by the Council of Ministers, according to accounts of the government's presentation.

The national figures are separate from the World Bank's international series. In particular, the 41.8 percent national rate for 2014 is not the same measure as the 44.0 percent recorded that year at US$3.00 or the 71.3 percent recorded at US$4.20.

The 2024 results also show a substantial geographical gap: poverty was reported at 45.5 percent in rural areas and 18.4 percent in urban areas. The difference is 27.1 percentage points, with the rural rate about 2.5 times the urban rate. This comparison is more useful for identifying domestic priorities than subtracting the national 37 percent from the international 71.7 percent.

The rural and urban figures do not, on their own, explain the causes of the gap. Detailed results on consumption, livelihoods and municipalities are needed to assess where deprivation is concentrated and which households face the greatest difficulty meeting basic needs.

Why newer household evidence matters

The period between the two surveys included economic disruptions that a projection must capture through assumptions. A reported 2021 assessment by the National Institute of Statistics and the United Nations Development Programme covered about 4,200 households and 1,100 businesses. It found income losses among 81 percent of micro, small and medium enterprises and employment losses among 43.3 percent of people aged 25 to 39 during the pandemic.

Those findings are not poverty rates and cannot be converted into one. They do show why an economic average alone cannot describe all household experiences. Pandemic responses included cash transfers, subsidies, electricity discounts, temporary tax and loan payment relief, assistance for basic needs and formal social security support. Measuring their effect on poverty requires household evidence, rather than assuming either that they eliminated hardship or made no difference.

Reports differ on the date of the latest national poverty data. One account describes them as collected in 2023 and calls for a new living standards survey. The World Bank's official technical note explicitly identifies the newer survey as the 2024 Survey of Living Standards and says its analysis has been completed. Government announcements likewise refer to the 2024 survey and its forthcoming report.

The official clarification therefore changes the immediate issue. A new survey has already been conducted and analyzed. What is pending is publication of its data and associated national poverty statistics, followed by their use in updated international estimates.

October publication is the next checkpoint

INETL President Elias dos Santos Ferreira said on September 23 that the October release would provide detailed results, methodology and guidance on interpreting the 2024 figures. The institute plans to invite the World Bank, development partners, civil society and journalists. No specific October launch day has been announced in the accounts of those remarks.

The sequence explains why newer national summary results and older international projections can circulate at the same time:

• 2014: The household survey established the baseline used in the current international poverty projections.
• 2024: A new Survey of Living Standards collected household evidence for the updated national measure.
• April 2026: The Macro Poverty Outlook published estimates based on the 2014 baseline.
• September 23, 2026: INETL announced plans to release the finalized 2024 report in October.
• October 2026: The planned publication should make detailed findings and methodology accessible.

Finance Vice Minister Regina de Jesus de Sousa has challenged the World Bank figure while pointing to the government's 37 percent result. The technical distinction is narrower than a choice between a correct number and an incorrect one: the figures refer to different years, thresholds and methods. Their disagreement cannot be resolved by comparing the percentages alone.

Publication should allow scrutiny of the sample, questionnaire, poverty line definitions, consumption calculations and municipality results. These details matter for evaluating the government's reported reduction and understanding the rural gap. A summary endorsed by the Council of Ministers does not substitute for the evidence needed to examine how the result was calculated.

The World Bank says updated international estimates will replace the current projections in future outlooks after the official 2024 survey data and relevant national statistics are published. It has not specified which edition will first include them or what the revised rates will be. Until then, the 37 percent national survey result and the 2026 international projections should each retain their date and measurement label.

Key Points

• The World Bank's 2026 estimates are 44.3 percent below US$3.00 and 71.7 percent below US$4.20, both in 2021 PPP.
• Those estimates use the 2014 household survey as their baseline, not direct measurements from 2026.
• The government reports national poverty of 37 percent in 2024, compared with 41.8 percent in 2014.
• Reported rural poverty is 45.5 percent, compared with 18.4 percent in urban areas.
• INETL plans to publish the full 2024 survey report in October 2026.
• The World Bank will update its international estimates after publication of the new official data and associated statistics.