Thailand's Older Population Overtakes Children as Ageing Reshapes the Economy

13.6 Million Older Thais and 9.5 Million Children

Thailand has reached a demographic turning point in 2025: people aged 60 and above outnumber children under 15 for the first time. An analysis by the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) puts the older population at 13.6 million, compared with 9.5 million children. The gap is 4.1 million people, or roughly 143 older residents for every 100 children.

As of August 31, 2025, the shift is reshaping questions that reach into almost every household: who will work, who will provide care, how retirement will be financed, and what kinds of homes and services communities will need. Thailand's demographic transition is being described as entry into the ranks of ultra-aged societies.

Declining birth rates and longer lives have changed the balance between generations. Thailand shares that experience with much of East and Southeast Asia, but its transition is happening rapidly while the country remains at a middle income level. Japan and Singapore reached advanced stages of ageing with greater financial resources, giving Thailand less economic room to meet growing needs.

National figures also hide sharp differences between places. Some provinces already have far more older people than children, while parts of the western border and lower south retain younger populations. Healthcare, employment and housing policies therefore face two tasks at once: responding to the national shift and matching the different needs of individual communities.

Where Thailand Is Ageing Fastest

GISTDA's population Insight Map shows the highest ageing index in the north and central regions. The index compares the number of older people with the number of children. Many provinces in these regions have a much larger older population, showing how far their population balance has already changed.

The northeast is also ageing quickly. Adults of working age moving to urban centres, together with persistently low birth rates, are accelerating the change. The region is on course to become a super-aged society within the next decade, increasing pressure on communities where younger adults have moved away.

The eastern region has a different profile, with a higher density of residents of working age and a smaller proportion of older people. Along the western border and in the lower south, children still outnumber older residents in places including Tak, Kanchanaburi, Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat.

These differences matter for practical decisions. Communities with many older residents need more accessible healthcare, transport and housing. Places with larger younger populations still need services suited to children and families. A national ageing strategy must account for both, rather than assume that every province has the same population structure.

Fewer Births and Longer Lives

Thai women had an average of five or more children in the 1970s. By the 1990s, fertility had fallen to about 2.1 children per woman, the replacement level at which a population can replace itself from one generation to the next. The rate now stands at around 1.5.

Thailand is therefore adding smaller generations of children while larger generations move into older age. At the same time, advances in healthcare, nutrition and living standards have increased life expectancy. Those two developments together explain why the older population is growing in importance within the national total.

The median age has climbed to about 40. In simple terms, the median divides the population into two equal groups, with half younger and half older. United Nations projections indicate that nearly one in three Thais will be over 60 by 2050, placing Thailand among the world's most rapidly ageing societies.

The main dates show the scale and direction of the transition:

• 1970s: Thai women had an average of five or more children.
• 1990s: Fertility reached approximately 2.1 children per woman.
• 2025: People aged 60 and above number 13.6 million, compared with 9.5 million children under 15.
• Within the next decade: The northeast is on track to become a super-aged society.
• 2050: Nearly one in three Thais is projected to be over 60.

A Smaller Workforce Supporting More Retirees

Thailand's population of working age is projected to fall from 43.2 million in 2020 to 36.5 million in 2040. That is a decline of 6.7 million people, or about 15.5%, over two decades. The number of workers relative to retirees will fall sharply as older generations grow and younger generations remain smaller.

The economic challenge is a reversal of the demographic dividend, the boost a country can receive when a large share of its population is of working age. With fewer potential workers supporting more retirees, Thailand faces possible labour shortages, slower growth and greater pressure on social welfare systems.

The World Bank estimates that demographic change will account for more than half of the projected decline in Thailand's long term economic growth between 2020 and 2050. A smaller workforce could also push up labour costs, reduce productivity and put pressure on the country's competitiveness.

Employers and policymakers are considering how older adults can continue contributing through work. Longer careers and second careers offer ways to retain skills and experience, while also giving older people opportunities to earn income. The government and private sector are exploring these approaches alongside products and services designed for an older population.

Pension and Healthcare Bills Are Rising

Thailand's combined spending on pensions, old age allowances and healthcare is projected to rise from 6.2% of gross domestic product in 2020 to 11.3% by 2060. Gross domestic product, or GDP, measures the value of goods and services produced in the economy. Comparing spending with GDP shows how large the bill is relative to the country's economic resources.

The projected increase is 5.1 percentage points, taking these costs to nearly twice their earlier share of the economy. More people reaching retirement age means a larger population needing income support, while longer lives can mean more years receiving pensions and healthcare.

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), working with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), has brought the National Transfer Accounts framework into policy analysis. Known as NTA, it uses evidence on labour income, consumption and transfers between generations to examine how people finance their needs at different ages.

The framework helps connect household circumstances with public budgets. Children, working adults and retirees have different patterns of earning and spending, while families and government programmes move resources between them. Understanding those flows can help policymakers assess where support is needed as the population balance changes.

Chronic Illness Adds to the Care Burden

Noncommunicable diseases, including diabetes and heart disease, account for nearly three quarters of all deaths in Thailand. These are illnesses that do not pass from person to person. Their estimated annual economic cost is 1.6 trillion baht, almost 10% of GDP.

Diabetes cases alone are projected to reach 5.3 million by 2040. Managing chronic conditions often requires continuing treatment and monitoring, adding to demand for care as the number of older patients rises. Healthcare costs are increasing, while shortages of staff are becoming more acute as the pool of professionals of working age shrinks.

Thailand is investing in preventive care, early intervention and public awareness campaigns to manage chronic illness and reduce costs over time. The aim is to address health problems earlier and help people remain healthier before and after retirement.

Digital services are another part of the response. Telemedicine allows consultations at a distance, while diagnostic tools using artificial intelligence and wearable devices are being adopted to improve access and efficiency, especially in rural areas. These approaches sit alongside the continuing need for healthcare workers and services close to where older people live.

Care Moves Into Homes and Communities

Partnerships between public bodies and private companies are helping expand support for older people. Companies including DKSH are working with hospitals and the Thai Red Cross Society on care delivered at home, digital payment platforms and free medical services for older people in underserved communities.

Care at home is part of a wider effort to meet needs beyond hospitals. The government is encouraging the development of facilities for older people, insurance for continuing care and infrastructure that is easier for older residents to use. Together, these measures address both medical treatment and the daily circumstances in which people grow older.

Health promotion before retirement is also among the policy recommendations. The focus extends beyond treating illness in old age to helping people maintain their health through earlier stages of life. That approach connects prevention with the financial and staffing pressures already facing the healthcare system.

Older Consumers Are Becoming a Larger Market

Older consumers spent 2.18 trillion baht in 2023, according to the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). That spending is projected to reach 3.5 trillion baht by 2033, an increase of 1.32 trillion baht, or about 61%, over ten years.

The growing silver economy, meaning economic activity linked to older consumers, creates opportunities in healthcare, housing, food and recreation. Older people are expected to remain active as both customers and workers, making their needs, preferences and experience increasingly important to businesses.

The government and private sector are exploring how to use those skills and experience while developing suitable goods and services. The opportunity extends from supporting second careers to making everyday products and housing more appropriate for an older population.

Affordability remains part of the policy agenda. Recommendations include encouraging businesses to develop housing and services that older people can afford, improving access to financial products, and supporting informal workers with skills development and access to funding. Informal workers, whose employment falls outside standard formal arrangements, are among those considered in efforts to broaden economic security.

Housing and Tourism Adjust to Older Customers

Property developers are responding to changing preferences with flexible rentals, shared living arrangements and housing designed for older residents. Demand is rising for healthcare facilities, retirement communities and accessible infrastructure, creating opportunities for investment and new approaches to development.

Thailand is also positioning itself as a destination for older travellers and people seeking longer stays in retirement. Affordable living costs, high quality healthcare and the country's hospitality support that effort. Tourism for older people and travel focused on health and wellbeing are expanding parts of the market.

Specialised travel packages, retirement visas and services combining healthcare with hospitality are being developed for domestic and international seniors. The policy recommendations also call for tourism infrastructure that better serves older visitors.

The silver market is among the fastest growing and most profitable segments of global tourism and consumer markets. Older customers have different needs and interests, so dividing the market into suitable groups can help businesses develop more targeted services. Housing, travel and healthcare are all being reshaped by this growing demand.

Women Face Distinct Pressures in Later Life

Women make up the majority of older adults because they tend to live longer. They also face higher rates of illness, fewer financial resources and a greater likelihood of widowhood. A longer life can therefore bring more years in which health needs and limited income overlap.

Many older women care for grandchildren or other relatives, often without adequate social protection. Their role in supporting families continues even when they may need care or financial support themselves.

Policy discussions call for support across the whole course of life, including women's health, employment and economic security. Conditions during working life help shape the resources available in retirement, making ageing policy relevant well before someone reaches 60.

Family support, community participation and policies that include all ages can also help reduce social isolation. Strengthening connections between generations allows older people to remain involved in society while recognising both the care they need and the contributions they continue to make.

Thailand and Its Neighbours Prepare for Change

Thai policymakers are considering changes to labour markets, social protection and healthcare. Recommendations include extending retirement ages, promoting second careers, expanding affordable housing and services, improving financial access and supporting informal workers. These measures address different parts of the same shift: more people living longer alongside fewer younger workers.

Thailand has also taken a leading role in the regional response through the creation of the ASEAN Centre for Active Ageing and Innovation (ACAI). The centre promotes research, policy development and training to support healthy, active ageing across Southeast Asia.

Across the Asia-Pacific region, nearly all countries are projected to have fertility below replacement level by 2050. By 2040, the region is expected to have more people aged 65 and older than children under 15. Thailand's national comparison uses a younger threshold for older people, age 60.

Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia are moving along similar demographic paths, although their pace and scale differ. Declining births and ageing populations put pressure on economic growth, labour supply and social development. Investment in health, education and innovation, together with timely policy changes, offers ways to support development while adapting to a different population balance.

Key Points

• Thailand has 13.6 million people aged 60 and above, compared with 9.5 million children under 15 in 2025.
• The north and central regions have the highest ageing index, while children still outnumber older people in parts of the western border and lower south.
• Fertility has fallen from five or more children per woman in the 1970s to around 1.5 today, while life expectancy has increased.
• The population of working age is projected to fall from 43.2 million in 2020 to 36.5 million in 2040.
• Pensions, old age allowances and healthcare are projected to cost 11.3% of GDP by 2060, compared with 6.2% in 2020.
• Older consumer spending is projected to rise from 2.18 trillion baht in 2023 to 3.5 trillion baht in 2033.
• Policy priorities include longer working lives, preventive healthcare, affordable services, stronger social protection and support for older women and caregivers.
• Nearly one in three Thais is projected to be over 60 by 2050.