Marcos Trust Falls to 45%, Performance Rating to 44% in OCTA Survey

Second Quarterly Decline Takes Marcos to New Lows

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s trust rating fell to 45 percent and satisfaction with his performance dropped to 44 percent in OCTA Research's third quarter 2026 survey, the lowest readings in the polling firm's four years of tracking his presidency. The survey was conducted from September 28 to October 4.

The latest Tugon ng Masa poll recorded a second consecutive quarterly decline in both measures. Trust fell four percentage points from 49 percent in July, while performance satisfaction declined three points from 47 percent. Distrust rose to 36 percent from 32 percent.

The longer comparison shows a larger loss of public support. Marcos' trust rating was 19 percentage points below its July 2025 level, while satisfaction with his performance was down 18 points over the same period.

Malacañang responded on Wednesday by pointing to assistance for farmers, hospital patients and households facing food insecurity. Palace Press Officer Claire Castro said the figures served as reminders for the administration but did not fully reflect the President's work or the experiences of people receiving government assistance.

Vice President Sara Duterte's latest results moved slightly in the opposite direction. Her trust rating reached 48 percent and performance satisfaction stood at 46 percent, each one point higher than in the previous quarter. Both officials nevertheless remained below 50 percent on both measures.

How the Ratings Changed

OCTA's surveys trace Marcos' decline from majority ratings in March to less than half of respondents expressing trust or satisfaction in July. The latest poll extended those losses.

• July 2025: Marcos' trust rating was 64 percent and performance satisfaction was 62 percent, calculated from the stated declines of 19 and 18 percentage points to the latest results.
• March 2026: Trust stood at 54 percent and satisfaction with his performance at 55 percent.
• July 4 to 11, 2026: OCTA interviewed 1,200 Filipino adults. Trust registered 49 percent and performance satisfaction 47 percent.
• July 27, 2026: The July findings were released ahead of Marcos' fifth State of the Nation Address.
• September 28 to October 4, 2026: Fieldwork for the survey described as the third quarter poll recorded trust at 45 percent and satisfaction at 44 percent.

The quarter labels and interview dates serve different purposes. OCTA described the July findings as its second quarter results, while the latest survey carried a third quarter label even though interviews continued into early October.

A Larger Slide Since March

Marcos lost nine percentage points in trust between March and the latest survey, moving from 54 percent to 45 percent. Satisfaction with his performance fell 11 points, from 55 percent to 44 percent.

A percentage point measures the distance between two percentages. The change from 54 percent to 45 percent is therefore a decline of nine percentage points. In simple terms, it is equivalent to nine fewer people out of every 100 expressing trust.

The biggest of the two recent quarterly drops came between March and July, when trust fell five points and satisfaction declined eight points. The subsequent falls of four and three points were smaller, but took both measures to new lows.

Trust and performance satisfaction capture different judgments. Trust concerns confidence in the President, while performance satisfaction concerns how people assess his work. Both moved downward across the two survey rounds.

The latest distrust figure adds another measure of the change. At 45 percent trust and 36 percent distrust, the gap between the two was nine points. In July, trust of 49 percent and distrust of 32 percent produced a gap of 17 points.

July Results Showed a Regional Divide

Mindanao recorded the lowest satisfaction with Marcos' performance in the July survey, at 26 percent. Dissatisfaction there reached 48 percent, the highest among the geographic areas listed in that poll.

Balance Luzon, meaning Luzon outside the National Capital Region, gave Marcos his strongest July performance result. Satisfaction reached 60 percent, compared with 45 percent in the Visayas and 43 percent in the National Capital Region.

The distance between Balance Luzon and Mindanao was 34 percentage points. That wide gap helps explain why a single national figure can sit alongside very different public judgments across the country.

Dissatisfaction in July stood at 26 percent in Balance Luzon and 32 percent in both the National Capital Region and the Visayas. Nationwide, 33 percent expressed dissatisfaction with the President's performance, seven points higher than in March.

These regional figures describe the July survey. They provide a picture of where Marcos' support was weakest before the latest national decline.

Income Groups Moved in Different Directions

Class D respondents recorded the largest fall in satisfaction with Marcos' performance between March and July. Their satisfaction rating dropped 11 percentage points, from 56 percent to 45 percent.

The survey described Class D as the lower middle income segment. That decline was larger than the eight point fall in performance satisfaction nationwide during the same period.

Class ABC, the combined upper and upper middle income group, recorded a smaller decline of three points, from 56 percent to 53 percent. Satisfaction among Class E respondents, the lowest income group, rose four points, from 48 percent to 52 percent.

July's results therefore showed uneven movement across income groups. Satisfaction remained above half among Class ABC and Class E respondents, while falling below half among Class D respondents.

The contrast matters to the Palace's focus on government assistance. People in different income groups reported different assessments of the President even as the national rating fell. The July poll recorded improving satisfaction in the lowest income group alongside a sharp decline in Class D.

OCTA Cited Prices, Conflict and Accountability

OCTA identified several possible reasons for Marcos' earlier decline: concerns about the economic effects of the Middle East conflict, demands for accountability in the flood control corruption scandal, inflation and rising petroleum prices.

The polling firm said public perceptions that the administration had failed to protect the local economy from the conflict could have contributed to the July results. It also pointed to perceptions that the government had been slow to demand accountability from people involved in the flood control scandal.

Household costs formed another part of OCTA's explanation. Inflation means prices are rising, leaving families able to buy less with the same amount of money. Higher petroleum prices can increase transport expenses and the cost of moving goods.

OCTA also cited concerns about whether the government had secured enough support to cushion lower and middle income households against those pressures. For families managing food, fares and other daily expenses, assistance programs and prices affect the same household budget.

The polling firm's explanation accompanied the July decline. The latest results show that public confidence continued to weaken after those concerns had been identified.

The Palace Pointed to People Receiving Assistance

Claire Castro, the Palace press officer, said the administration acknowledged the survey but considered its figures an incomplete account of the President's work. Speaking in Filipino, she described how Malacañang viewed the results:

Survey results are figures that serve as reminders, but they do not reflect the actual work the President is doing for our fellow countrymen,

Castro cited farmers receiving government support and patients benefiting from the Zero Balance Billing policy in public hospitals. She suggested that some people reached by those programs might not have been included in the surveys.

The press officer also pointed to positive feedback from beneficiaries of the Walang Gutom Program, which aims to address food insecurity among vulnerable households. According to Castro, beneficiaries whose living conditions had improved had given positive assessments.

Her response focused on the experiences of people receiving specific services. A national opinion poll measures the views of a broader adult population, including people with different levels of contact with government programs.

Castro maintained that Marcos would continue carrying out his responsibilities and implementing programs regardless of the ratings. The Palace's response placed farmer assistance, hospital bills and access to food at the center of its defense of his performance.

What the Survey Details Tell Readers

OCTA conducted the July survey through face to face interviews with 1,200 Filipino adults nationwide. It reported a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

A survey interviews a sample of people to estimate the views of a much larger population. The margin of error describes uncertainty arising from that sampling process. A 95 percent confidence level means that, across many surveys using the same method, about 95 out of 100 resulting intervals would contain the population value being estimated.

Those published technical details belong to the July survey. The sample size, interview method and margin of error for the September 28 to October 4 poll were not specified in the information accompanying the latest figures.

Castro's suggestion about beneficiaries concerns who was interviewed. Assessing that suggestion would require information about how respondents were selected and how many had received the programs she cited. The latest figures and the Palace response give no such breakdown.

Duterte Recovered One Point After July Losses

Vice President Sara Duterte's latest trust rating of 48 percent followed a decline from 55 percent in March to 47 percent in July. Satisfaction with her performance moved from 50 percent in March to 45 percent in July, then rose to 46 percent in the latest poll.

OCTA had described her July trust result as a record low and connected the decline to her impeachment trial. The polling firm also said her July performance rating fell below the majority level for the first time since November 2024.

Duterte's July distrust rating stood at 33 percent, up from 26 percent in March. The geographic divide was pronounced: distrust reached 47 percent in the National Capital Region and 44 percent in Balance Luzon, compared with 28 percent in the Visayas and four percent in Mindanao.

The latest results put Duterte three percentage points ahead of Marcos on trust and two points ahead on performance satisfaction. Her one point increases left both ratings below their March levels, while Marcos' figures continued to fall.

Key Points

• Marcos' trust rating fell to 45 percent and performance satisfaction to 44 percent, the lowest in OCTA's four years of tracking his presidency.
• The latest survey was conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026.
• Trust fell four percentage points from July, while performance satisfaction declined three points.
• Marcos' distrust rating rose from 32 percent to 36 percent.
• The Palace cited farmer support, Zero Balance Billing and the Walang Gutom Program in defending the President's work.
• Duterte's trust and performance ratings rose one point each, to 48 percent and 46 percent.