UK settlement overhaul would extend waits for many Nepali workers while protecting some care staff

Five years could become 10 for workers already in Britain

Britain's revised settlement plans would make an estimated 517,000 migrants wait longer for permanent residence, while preserving the existing five years for qualifying care workers who entered or switched into the sector before May 2025. For many Nepali chefs, hotel staff and other workers outside protected occupations, the standard qualifying period would double from five years to 10.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's earned settlement framework would link the wait for indefinite leave to remain, known as ILR, to earnings, occupation, immigration history and other conditions. Some people earning £50,271 could qualify after five years, while the highest earners and qualifying talent visa holders could apply after three.

The legal position matters immediately to families approaching eligibility. Current GOV.UK settlement guidance still says eligible Skilled Worker, Health and Care Worker, T2 and Tier 2 visa holders must have lived in Britain for five years before applying. The announced timetable would begin introducing changes through Immigration Rules in December 2026, with implementation during 2027.

London immigration solicitor Raju Thapa says the new system has not yet taken legal effect. His concern is particularly acute for Nepalis working in restaurants and hotels, where reaching the earnings threshold for the shorter route can be difficult.

ILR gives a person permission to live, work and study in Britain without a fixed end date. For sponsored workers, it also brings freedom to take jobs without needing an employer to sponsor their immigration status. A longer wait therefore affects employment choices as well as plans for a permanent home.

How earnings would determine the wait

The revised framework sets out several routes rather than a single deadline for everyone. On the standard route lasting 10 years, applicants would need to have earned at least £12,571 annually in five of the seven years immediately before settlement, alongside the other mandatory conditions.

The shorter route lasting five years would cover people who earned at least £50,271 in three of the five years before applying. Qualifying public service workers and certain groups with a British connection would also retain shorter routes.

The route lasting three years would cover people earning £125,141 for three years, or three of the previous four years, and people qualifying through designated talent schemes. These include qualifying migrants on Global Talent or Innovator Founder visas.

The earnings history is crucial. A worker who obtains a higher salary shortly before an application may still need to build up the required number of years at that level. The proposals measure contribution over time, rather than simply checking the latest payslip.

Applicants would also face requirements concerning criminal records, English, debts owed to the taxpayer and at least three years of National Insurance contributions. National Insurance is collected through earnings and helps fund state pensions and certain benefits. The announced English timetable would raise the relevant standard from B1 to B2 from 26 March 2027. B2 generally requires a person to understand and discuss more complex subjects with greater independence.

Why Nepali hospitality workers are worried

Abhishekkumar Shrestha, a Nepali worker who has spent roughly five years in Britain on a work permit, says the announcement has left him anxious. He describes fellow chefs who had expected to become eligible within about a year but could instead face a total wait of 10 years.

Thapa identifies the salary threshold as a practical problem for restaurant and hotel employees. A worker can remain legally employed, pay taxes and meet visa conditions while earning less than £50,271. Unless that person qualifies for an exemption, the standard route would take twice as long as the current five years.

Marley Morris, associate director for migration at the Institute for Public Policy Research, says the effect reaches beyond hospitality. He identifies engineers, chefs and architects among workers who may fall below the threshold despite having moved to Britain expecting the existing timetable.

For a household already several years into a sponsored visa, another five years could mean more renewals and a longer period in which employment must satisfy immigration conditions. The central dispute is whether the government should apply the longer timetable to people who made major decisions under the earlier rules.

Care workers gain a narrower protection

Care workers were initially among those facing the largest increase, from five years to a proposed 15. The revised plans preserve five years for workers who entered or switched into the relevant route before May 2025, earned at least £25,000 annually in social care and complied with their visa conditions.

Mahmood explained the concession to MPs by referring to the earnings condition attached to those workers' visas.

Those who earn £25,000 a year working in the social care sector, which was the condition of their visa, will therefore be able to settle on their existing five-year path.

Workers who fail to meet the relevant conditions would be offered the opportunity to apply for another visa lasting five years and seek settlement afterward. The announced arrangements would allow eligible workers to move away from their previous employer, with government help to find a legitimate care provider.

The government says around a quarter of people who entered or switched onto the care route between 2022 and 2025 did not meet the conditions. Mahmood also told MPs that around 1,400 care employers had lost their sponsorship licences. These are permissions allowing employers to recruit workers through sponsored immigration routes.

The concession is tied to the date and conditions of the worker's route. Most care workers outside the transitional protection would fall under the standard framework lasting 10 years. Some health and education staff working below graduate skill level, including nursing auxiliaries and teaching assistants, would receive similar protection if they joined before May 2025.

Public service workers and families have other routes

Doctors, nurses and teachers are among the public service workers who could retain eligibility after five years without meeting the £50,271 salary threshold. The occupations identified also include psychotherapists, physiotherapists, dental practitioners, children's nurses and midwifery nurses.

Hong Kong residents holding British National (Overseas) status would keep their existing settlement route. The government also says routes would remain unchanged for armed forces members, people with specified British connections and applicants on legacy arrangements, including the Windrush scheme. Eligible partners, parents and children of British citizens would continue to qualify after five years.

For other migrant families, a partner arriving with the main applicant could settle at the same time if the relevant requirements are met. A partner arriving later would need to complete the applicable residence period. Eligible couples could combine earnings toward a household threshold of £25,142, twice the individual minimum of £12,571.

Children younger than 18 could continue to settle with their parents without meeting income, government debt, English or Life in the UK test requirements. Suitability and criminality requirements would still apply. Dependent adults aged 18 to 24 could also settle alongside their families, meeting adult mandatory conditions but receiving an exemption from the individual income requirement. Those aged 25 or older would generally need to qualify independently.

Refugees face waits reaching 30 years

Refugees admitted through designated government resettlement or sponsorship schemes would have a route lasting five years. The detailed framework gives UK Resettlement Scheme refugees an A2 English requirement and allows access to that route without having spent five years off public funds.

Other refugees granted protection in Britain would face different routes according to their arrival and subsequent activity. Those moving into sustained work, education or training could qualify after 10 years on the relevant route. Those remaining on core protection without that activity would face 20 years.

People who entered illegally, including by small boat, would generally face an additional 10 years: 20 years where they move into work or study, and 30 where they do not. The detailed framework includes an exception to the additional period where Article 31 of the Refugee Convention applies. That provision concerns protection against penalties for certain refugees entering without permission.

Imran Hussain, executive director of external affairs at the Refugee Council, criticised the prospect of repeatedly renewing temporary protection during such long waits.

Refugees are being asked to rebuild their lives on a status that expires every 30 months for what could be 30 years. That is unfair and unworkable.

For refugees on the work route, the stated requirements include earning at least £12,571 annually for three years, B2 English and passing the Life in the UK test. Where repayment of asylum support is required, applicants would need to repay it or keep to an agreed repayment plan.

What the population and cost estimates measure

The Home Office estimates that 1.9 million people will settle between 2026 and 2030, within a range of 1.3 million to 2.2 million. The revised package would delay settlement for 517,000 people, compared with 799,000 under the earlier version. That is 282,000 fewer people facing a delay, a reduction of about 35%.

The government's financial argument has focused heavily on care workers and adult dependants. Figures attributed to the Home Office put that group at 196,000 expected settlers between 2026 and 2030; IPPR uses a broader estimate of around 287,000 care workers and dependants, including a different dependant population.

An earlier Home Office calculation put the net lifetime fiscal cost of 117,000 care workers at £4.2 billion, rising to £9.5 billion when adult dependants were included. A net fiscal cost means estimated public spending associated with a group exceeds the taxes and other revenues attributed to it over the period modelled.

IPPR's earned settlement analysis, published by Morris on 2 November 2026, places those figures alongside an estimated £115 billion net lifetime contribution from skilled workers expected to settle in 2026 to 2030 and their adult dependants, including health and care workers.

The think tank applies Migration Advisory Committee estimates for people arriving in 2022/23 to projected settlement cohorts. Its calculations include 164,000 skilled worker main applicants and 75,000 adult dependants outside health and care, alongside 189,000 health and care main applicants and 129,000 adult dependants. Results are expressed in 2022/23 prices.

IPPR says delaying settlement mainly changes the timing of access to benefits, while the lifetime estimates also include later pensions and greater use of health and social care. Its methodology also acknowledges uncertainty from applying one arrival cohort's characteristics to another and from accounting for departures in more than one part of the calculation.

The argument over changing existing expectations

The consultation attracted 204,667 responses, including 202,241 from individuals and 2,426 from organisations. Following pressure from Labour MPs and senior colleagues, Mahmood protected some existing care workers while retaining longer waits for many others already in Britain. People who already hold settlement would be outside the changes.

Mahmood has defended linking permanent residence to contribution. Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp has called the care concession a reversal and attached the earlier £9.5 billion lifetime estimate to his criticism. Unions have welcomed the protection while seeking stronger freedom for care workers to change employers.

Dana Denis-Smith, vice president of the Law Society, focused on the treatment of people already following a settlement route.

The home secretary's decision to change pathways to settlement retrospectively undermines the legal certainty that individuals, families and employers rely on.

IPPR proposes an alternative transitional status after five years that would allow workers to change jobs without sponsorship while waiting for full ILR. Under its proposal, that status would stop short of granting all settlement rights, including access to welfare. It is a recommendation rather than an announced entitlement.

When the changes are expected to happen

The announced sequence stretches from the first proposals to implementation during 2027. For workers nearing eligibility, the start date of each individual rule will determine which conditions apply to their application.

• May 2025: The Immigration White Paper established the cutoff used for several protections for existing workers.
• November 2025: Detailed earned settlement proposals set out longer qualifying periods.
• November 2026: Mahmood announced the revised framework following consultation.
• December 2026: The government plans to begin laying changes through Immigration Rules.
• 26 March 2027: The announced timetable would introduce the B2 English standard for relevant settlement applications.
• During 2027: The government plans to roll out the wider reforms.

Detailed commencement provisions, guidance and impact assessments are still to be published as the changes are introduced. Those documents will be especially important for people whose current eligibility date falls close to implementation.

Existing residence conditions also deserve attention. Current guidance for the specified work routes generally permits no more than 180 days outside Britain in any 12 months. It allows time on certain eligible visa categories to be combined, but excludes time spent as a visa dependant from the main worker's qualifying five years.

Key Points

• The proposed standard wait for settlement would rise from five years to 10, with an estimated 517,000 people facing delays.
• Current GOV.UK guidance still gives eligible holders of the specified work visas a qualifying period of five years.
• Qualifying care workers who joined before May 2025 and earned at least £25,000 could retain five years.
• Higher earners and designated public service workers could qualify sooner than the standard route.
• Some refugees would face waits of 20 or 30 years, depending on entry and work or study conditions.
• Changes are planned to begin through Immigration Rules in December 2026 and take effect during 2027.