Pakistan Business Council Urges India Trade Revival, Citing $40 Billion in Losses

A $40 Billion Claim and a Call to Reopen Commerce

Pakistan has suffered an estimated $40 billion in economic losses since trade relations with India were disrupted in 2019, Pak-India Business Council chairman Noor Muhammad Qasuri said on November 2, 2026, urging both countries to restore commercial ties. His appeal centres on the cost of buying medicines, cotton and industrial supplies from countries farther away.

In a statement issued in Lahore, Qasuri estimated that access to Indian pharmaceutical raw materials could save Pakistani manufacturers between $2 billion and $3 billion annually. He also put the additional expenditure incurred by textile manufacturers sourcing cotton from alternative suppliers at about $5 billion.

India's recorded trade figures add another dimension to the appeal. Bilateral commerce continued after 2019, reaching $1.19 billion in the financial year 2023–24 before falling to $558.24 million in 2024–25. Further restrictions imposed in 2025 sharply reduced the remaining flows.

Qasuri's argument is that businesses are paying more because a nearby source of goods has become harder to access. A raw material bought at an attractive price can become expensive once shipping, freight handling and the time spent waiting for delivery are included.

For Pakistani manufacturers, his proposal connects two pressures: restrictions on supplies from India and problems within Pakistan, especially falling cotton production. Reopening trade could widen their choice of suppliers, while reviving domestic crops would address part of their dependence on imports.

No formal decision to restore bilateral commerce or date for negotiations has been announced. Qasuri has not published a detailed calculation or independent audit of the $40 billion estimate, the projected pharmaceutical savings or the textile expenditure figure; the period covered by the $5 billion textile estimate was also unspecified.

How Restrictions Deepened After 2019

The breakdown in commercial relations followed the 2019 Pulwama terror attack and subsequent escalations between India and Pakistan. Although trade was heavily restricted, India's later statistics record continuing exchanges between the neighbours.

A further deterioration followed the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025. India closed movement through the Integrated Check Post at Attari and then introduced a prohibition covering goods originating in or exported from Pakistan. Pakistan subsequently imposed its own restrictions.

• 2019: Trade relations were disrupted following the Pulwama attack and subsequent escalations.
• April 24, 2025: India closed passenger and goods movement through the Integrated Check Post at Attari.
• May 2, 2025: India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued Notification No. 06/2025–26, prohibiting direct or indirect imports and transit of goods originating in or exported from Pakistan.
• May 4, 2025: Pakistan introduced further trade restrictions, including restrictions on the movement of goods of Indian origin through its territory.
• November 2, 2026: Qasuri called for commercial ties to be restored.

The Indian prohibition covers both direct imports and goods brought through another country. For businesses, the origin of a product therefore matters alongside the country from which it is shipped. Qasuri's appeal would require governments to revisit rules that now reach beyond their shared border.

What India's Trade Figures Show

India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry set out the scale of bilateral commerce in an August 1, 2025, written response to Rajya Sabha Unstarred Question No. 1487. The figures were compiled by the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, which records merchandise trade.

Total bilateral trade rose from $329.26 million in 2020–21 to $516.36 million in 2021–22 and $647.21 million in 2022–23. It then reached $1,191.73 million in 2023–24 before declining to $558.24 million in 2024–25.

The fall between the last two financial years was $633.49 million, or about 53%. Pakistan's share of India's total international trade fell from 0.11% to 0.05% over the same period. The ministry described the effect of the restrictions on India's total trade as negligible because bilateral commerce represented such a small share.

The figures for May and June show a sharper contraction after the 2025 restrictions. Trade during those two months fell from $103.45 million in 2024 to $13.17 million in 2025, a decline of approximately 87%.

Qasuri's $40 billion estimate concerns the wider economic costs he attributes to restricted trade over several years, including more expensive sourcing. The ministry's figures measure the value of goods actually traded. Understanding the business council's estimate requires information about those extra costs as well as transactions that companies could otherwise have made.

Why Medicine Manufacturers Want Indian Supplies

Pakistan's pharmaceutical manufacturers are among the businesses Qasuri identifies as potential beneficiaries of reopening trade. He said raw materials available in India could generate annual savings of $2 billion to $3 billion if imports resumed.

Pharmaceutical raw materials are the ingredients and other inputs manufacturers use to make medicines. Their cost includes purchasing them and getting them to a factory. Qasuri said restrictions had pushed companies towards alternative suppliers, increasing procurement expenses, transportation costs and delivery times.

A supplier closer to a factory can offer practical advantages when a manufacturer needs regular deliveries. Shorter routes can reduce freight expenses and make it easier to plan production around arriving materials. Those are the benefits Qasuri is seeking for Pakistani drug makers.

His proposed saving concerns manufacturers' expenses. Any change in the price patients pay would depend on how those savings moved through medicine production, distribution and pricing. The immediate business demand is for access to a broader and potentially cheaper pool of inputs.

Cotton Costs Expose a Domestic Problem Too

Pakistan's textile mills face a combination of declining domestic cotton production and more expensive sourcing abroad, according to Qasuri. He estimated that manufacturers had incurred about $5 billion in additional expenditure while obtaining cotton from Brazil, Egypt, China and the United States.

Cotton is a basic material for making yarn and fabric. When domestic supplies fall, mills need more imports to keep production running. Qasuri said purchasing from distant countries had increased the burden on manufacturers already dealing with reduced access to Indian supplies.

Farmers in traditional cotton growing regions are increasingly switching to sugarcane, he said. That connects decisions made on farms with costs borne by factories: less cotton grown locally means mills must look elsewhere for a larger part of their requirements.

Qasuri called for better agricultural policies to revive cotton production. His proposal therefore has two parts. Restored trade could give textile businesses another source of imported cotton, while changes in agricultural policy could encourage more production within Pakistan.

The domestic element matters to the substance of his appeal. Even with commercial access to India restored, Pakistani mills would still have to manage the consequences of farmers choosing other crops. Qasuri is asking the government to address both the supply route and the supply at home.

Fuel, Fertiliser and Machinery Also Feature

Qasuri identified sugar, fertilisers, cement, petroleum products, iron and steel, vegetables and heavy machinery as other goods Pakistan obtains from distant markets despite India's production capacity. He argued that closer sourcing could reduce costs across agriculture and industry.

Petroleum products were a specific example. Qasuri said Indian oil refineries are geographically closer to Pakistan than several existing suppliers, potentially allowing cheaper and faster deliveries. His argument focuses on the delivered cost of fuel, including transportation, rather than simply its price at the refinery.

Fertiliser, steel and machinery connect the trade debate to other stages of production. Farmers purchase fertiliser to grow crops, while factories and construction businesses use steel, cement and equipment. Changes in the cost of these inputs can affect the expense of producing goods further along the chain.

Qasuri's case is consequently broader than a request to reopen a market for finished products. He wants manufacturers and farmers to regain access to supplies that enter their own production processes, with proximity helping reduce both transport bills and waiting times.

Enforcement Continues Through Other Shipping Routes

India's restrictions remained an active enforcement issue in 2026. The World Trade Organization's quantitative restrictions database lists the Indian prohibition on imports and transit of products from Pakistan as in force from June 30, 2026. The underlying Directorate General of Foreign Trade notification was issued on May 2, 2025.

On October 14, 2026, India's Directorate of Revenue Intelligence announced the detection of 295 containers carrying approximately 7,311 metric tonnes of industrial and Himalayan rock salt originating in Pakistan. The agency alleged that the consignments had been routed through Colombo using fabricated certificates of origin and invoices.

On October 23, authorities announced another operation involving approximately 25,000 kilograms of watermelon seeds originating in Pakistan. Those goods were allegedly routed through Dubai and declared as originating in the United Arab Emirates.

Certificates of origin identify where goods come from, which helps customs officials apply import restrictions. The October cases illustrate the practical reach of India's rules: sending a shipment through a third country still leaves its Pakistani origin relevant to whether it can enter India.

Tourism and Family Connections Form Part of the Appeal

Qasuri also argued for renewed commerce as a route to investment, tourism and regional cooperation. He said Pakistan could attract Indian visitors interested in religious and historical destinations, ancestral homes and villages, and family connections across the border.

The Pak-India Business Council chairman presented shared history as a foundation for better relations. In his statement, he said:

"Pakistan and India share historical, cultural and family ties, which could provide a foundation for improved relations," he said.

Qasuri cited India's financial assistance to Sri Lanka during its economic crisis as an example of neighbours supporting one another during difficult periods. He used that example to argue for greater regional economic cooperation.

Political differences should be addressed through dialogue while both countries explore commercial opportunities, he argued. His appeal places the interests of manufacturers, farmers and potential visitors alongside the disputes that have shaped government policy.

India's statistics and Qasuri's sector estimates also show why the debate has different dimensions on each side. Pakistan represents 0.05% of India's total international trade in the latest financial year cited, while the council chairman describes concentrated costs for Pakistani industries dependent on imported inputs. Those industries are the immediate focus of his request to reopen commerce.

Key Points

• Pak-India Business Council chairman Noor Muhammad Qasuri called on November 2, 2026, for trade relations to be restored.
• He estimated Pakistan's economic losses since the 2019 disruption at $40 billion, without publishing a detailed calculation.
• Qasuri projected annual pharmaceutical savings of $2 billion to $3 billion and estimated additional textile expenditure at about $5 billion.
• India recorded bilateral trade of $558.24 million in 2024–25, down about 53% from the previous financial year.
• Trade in May and June fell approximately 87% between 2024 and 2025, following further restrictions.
• The appeal includes reviving Pakistani cotton production and expanding tourism and investment. No formal trade reopening decision has been announced.