Vietnam Projected to Overtake Indonesia in GDP per Capita in 2026

A $106 lead would mark a regional shift

Vietnam is projected to reach GDP per capita of $5,259 in 2026, overtaking Indonesia's $5,153 and moving into fifth place among Southeast Asian economies, according to the International Monetary Fund's October World Economic Outlook. The projected lead is $106 per person, or about 2.1%, reversing a gap that favored Indonesia by roughly $250 in 2025.

The change comes as Vietnam's factories, exports and infrastructure spending expand rapidly. Vietnam's government, in an October 30 economic update, cited National Statistics Office figures showing economic growth of 9.95% in the third quarter and 9.01% over the first nine months of 2026.

Indonesia would remain Southeast Asia's largest economy by a wide margin. The IMF projects its total GDP at $1.48 trillion in 2026, compared with $542 billion for Vietnam. Indonesia's economy would therefore be about 2.7 times Vietnam's size, while its population is nearly three times Vietnam's population of just over 100 million.

Vietnam's projected advance is a change in average output per person. GDP per capita divides the value of goods and services produced in a country by its population. It helps compare economies of different sizes, while wages and household incomes depend on how that production translates into jobs, business earnings and public services.

How the ranking changed in one year

Vietnam's GDP per capita stood at $4,829 in 2025, against Indonesia's $5,078. The IMF's new projections put Vietnam's increase in 2026 at 8.9%, compared with about 1.5% for Indonesia. Vietnam's projected figure is also nearly twice its level a decade earlier.

The forecast has changed within months. The IMF's April outlook had still placed Indonesia ahead in 2026. Its October projections now put Vietnam behind only Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, known as ASEAN.

The sequence shows how quickly the comparison has moved:

• 2025: Vietnam's GDP per capita was $4,829, compared with Indonesia's $5,078.
• April 2026: The IMF still projected Indonesia would remain ahead that year.
• October 2026: The IMF projected Vietnam would reach $5,259 in 2026, ahead of Indonesia's $5,153.
• 2027: Vietnam is projected to reach $5,659, compared with Indonesia's $5,550.
• 2030: The IMF projects $7,105 for Vietnam and $6,944 for Indonesia.

The comparison uses nominal GDP expressed in US dollars, meaning output is valued at current prices and converted into dollars. Domestic price changes and exchange rates therefore affect the figures alongside changes in production. A weaker local currency reduces the dollar value of output when other factors stay the same.

Growth accelerated through September

Vietnam's economy grew faster in each of the first three quarters of 2026. Growth rose from 8.15% in the first quarter to 8.81% in the second and 9.95% in the third, each measured against the same period a year earlier. The third quarter recorded the fastest expansion in four years.

The National Statistics Office put growth for January through September at 9.01%, the strongest pace for that period in 15 years. These figures measure real GDP growth, which adjusts for price changes to show how much more the economy produced.

Industry and construction led the expansion, growing 11.21% over the first nine months and contributing 49.62% of the increase in the economy's total value added. Value added is the value created during production after subtracting the cost of goods and services used to make the final product.

Services grew 8.96% and contributed another 45.03% of the increase. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries expanded 4.02%, accounting for the remaining 5.35%. Industry, construction and services together therefore supplied almost 95% of the additional value created during the period.

Factories and exports power the expansion

Vietnam's Industrial Production Index rose 14.8% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier. Across the first nine months, it increased 12.3%. The index tracks changes in industrial output, providing another measure of activity alongside GDP.

Electronics manufacturing is central to Vietnam's growing role in international production networks. Taiwan's Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, is expanding production in northern Vietnam. South Korea's Samsung Electronics operates factories there that make smartphones and other electronic products for export.

Vietnam is also attracting businesses seeking manufacturing locations outside China, including in electronics and semiconductors. These industries connect local factories to overseas customers and to suppliers that provide components, machinery, transport and other services.

Goods exports reached $434.3 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 24.5% from the same period in 2025. That gives the manufacturing expansion a concrete outlet: factories are producing for demand well beyond Vietnam's domestic market.

Export sales and GDP measure different things. Exports count the full value of goods shipped abroad, including imported components inside finished products. GDP counts the value created within Vietnam. For workers and local businesses, the economic benefit depends partly on how much production, engineering and supply activity takes place inside the country.

Foreign investment rises on two measures

Foreign investment figures show both a surge in commitments and an increase in money already put into projects. As of September 30, registered foreign investment had reached $50.36 billion, up 76.4% from a year earlier, according to the government's update.

Registered investment includes newly registered capital, increases to existing registrations, and foreign capital contributions and share purchases. It captures investment commitments and transactions recorded by authorities, with projects often developing over several years.

Realized foreign direct investment, meaning investment actually carried out during the period, reached $21.07 billion in the first nine months. That was an increase of 12.1% and the highest total for the same period in five years.

The different growth rates help explain the investment picture. Registered capital rose much faster than realized investment, pointing to a rapidly expanding pool of commitments alongside a more measured increase in implementation. Construction, equipment installation and the start of production determine when many commitments become operating businesses and jobs.

Public spending adds another growth engine

Vietnam plans public investment of VND1.014 quadrillion, approximately $39.3 billion, in 2026. Roads, airports and other infrastructure projects are under construction across the country, adding demand for labor, materials and construction services.

State budget investment carried out in the first nine months reached VND661.8 trillion, up 19% from a year earlier. The statistics put that amount at 59.9% of the annual plan. The relationship between the annual plan used for that percentage and the separately stated VND1.014 quadrillion spending figure was not detailed.

Mai Fujita, a senior research fellow at Japan's Institute of Developing Economies, identified the government's public investment push as a source of support for economic growth. Infrastructure spending creates activity during construction and can improve transport connections once projects enter service.

For a manufacturer, a road or airport connection can affect the time needed to move components into a factory and send finished goods to customers. Vietnam's simultaneous expansion in infrastructure and export manufacturing makes the completion and operation of those projects relevant beyond the construction sector itself.

Consumer spending grows as businesses adjust

Vietnam's total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue reached VND5,925.7 trillion, nearly $228 billion, during January through September. The figure rose 13.4% from the same period in 2025, showing that activity also expanded in shops and services serving customers within the country.

The retail figure is measured at current prices. Its increase combines changes in prices with changes in the amount of goods and services sold. It therefore measures something different from the economy's 9.01% real growth over the same period.

Business registrations show substantial movement in both directions. More than 223,900 enterprises were newly established or resumed operations in the first nine months, down 3.2% from a year earlier. About 172,000 withdrew from the market, a decline of 1.7%.

New and returning enterprises outnumbered withdrawals by roughly 51,900. The figures show expansion alongside continuing business turnover: growing national output still leaves individual companies facing decisions about whether to open, restart or leave the market.

Indonesia remains much larger, but grows more slowly

Indonesia's economy has been expanding at around 5% annually. The IMF forecasts growth of 5.1% in 2026, compared with 8.4% for Vietnam, a difference of 3.3 percentage points.

Indonesia's much larger population explains why its total economy can remain far bigger while its output per person falls slightly behind Vietnam's. Dividing $1.48 trillion among nearly three times as many people produces a different ranking from comparing national production totals alone.

A weaker Indonesian currency has also slowed the increase in its nominal GDP when converted into dollars. This matters especially in a close comparison: the projected 2026 gap between the countries is only about 2%.

The IMF expects Vietnam's lead to persist rather than widen dramatically. Its projections put the gap at $109 per person in 2027 and $161 in 2030. Both countries would remain close in the regional ranking, with Vietnam fifth and Indonesia sixth in 2030.

The 2030 target requires a faster climb

Vietnam's government is targeting economic growth of at least 10% in 2026. The IMF's 8.4% forecast falls below that goal, while the Asian Development Bank's September 2026 Asian Development Outlook projects growth of 7.8%.

For 2027, the two institutions expect somewhat slower expansion. The IMF forecasts 7.5% growth and the Asian Development Bank forecasts 7.6%. Vietnam's strong results through September therefore sit alongside forecasts that anticipate a lower pace in the following year.

Vietnam also aims to reach GDP per capita of about $8,500 by 2030, roughly Thailand's current level. The IMF projects $7,105, leaving a gap of $1,395 between its forecast and the government's target. The target is about 19.6% above the IMF projection.

From the projected $5,259 in 2026, reaching $8,500 would require an increase of about 61.6% over four years. The IMF instead projects a rise of about 35.1% over that period. Both paths involve substantial gains, but they describe different speeds of economic progress.

Fujita has pointed to human resources and technology as priorities alongside infrastructure. For Vietnam, that means developing the skills and technical capabilities needed to sustain growth after the immediate boost from construction spending. The projected move above Indonesia would mark an advance in output per person; the larger task is turning continued investment and production into better jobs and higher living standards.

Key Points

• The IMF projects Vietnam's GDP per capita at $5,259 in 2026, ahead of Indonesia's $5,153.
• Vietnam would rank fifth in ASEAN, behind Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand.
• Indonesia would remain Southeast Asia's largest economy, with projected GDP of $1.48 trillion against Vietnam's $542 billion.
• Vietnam's economy grew 9.01% in the first nine months of 2026, with industry and construction leading the expansion.
• Goods exports reached $434.3 billion, while realized foreign direct investment reached $21.07 billion during that period.
• The IMF forecasts Vietnam's GDP per capita at $7,105 in 2030, below the government's $8,500 target.