Uzbekistan's External Debt Reaches $84.1 Billion as Corporate Borrowing Drives Annual Growth

Companies account for most of the $11.9 billion increase

Uzbekistan's external debt reached $84.1 billion on July 1, 2026, up $11.9 billion, or 16.5%, from $72.2 billion a year earlier. Corporate borrowing accounted for $7 billion of that increase, compared with $4.9 billion for government external debt, according to figures in the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan's external sector review.

The balance was almost evenly divided: government external debt stood at $41.7 billion and corporate external debt at $42.4 billion. Companies and banks therefore accounted for about 50.4% of the total and 58.8% of its annual increase, calculated from the published figures.

The increase came alongside a $13.4 billion trade deficit in the first half of 2026, falling gold exports and a smaller positive balance between Uzbekistan's foreign assets and liabilities. Yet the Central Bank also cited an International Monetary Fund assessment that the external debt burden remained low, with most borrowing obtained on concessional terms.

A separate Ministry of Economy and Finance measure put total public debt at $48.31 billion, including domestic borrowing. That figure is not an alternative estimate of the $84.1 billion external debt total: it measures government obligations, while total external debt also includes corporate borrowing from abroad.

The distinction matters for repayment responsibility. The Central Bank says corporate borrowing without government guarantees does not create government obligations. A rise in the national external debt total therefore cannot be treated as an equivalent increase in debt payable from the state budget.

Growth slowed after the sharp increase in 2025

Government external debt rose from $36.8 billion to $41.7 billion over the year to July 1, an increase of 13.3%. Corporate external debt grew faster, rising from $35.4 billion to $42.4 billion, or 19.8%.

The longer comparison shows how much the corporate component has changed. Corporate external debt increased from $12.5 billion in 2020 to $41.7 billion at the end of 2025, more than tripling. Total external debt increased by $18.1 billion during 2025, compared with annual increases of $9.2 billion in 2020, $9.8 billion in 2023 and $10.8 billion in 2024.

Reports place total external debt at $82.2 billion at the start of 2026, suggesting an increase of about $1.9 billion, or 2.3%, during the first half. On that basis, roughly $10 billion of the $11.9 billion annual increase occurred in the second half of 2025.

There is a timing discrepancy in the reported comparisons. One account also gives $82.2 billion as the April 1, 2026 balance, with government debt at $40.5 billion and corporate debt at $41.7 billion. Other accounts use those totals for the beginning of the year. The July endpoint is consistent, but the $1.9 billion increase cannot be assigned exclusively to the second quarter without resolving the earlier reference date.

• July 1, 2025: total external debt was $72.2 billion, comprising $36.8 billion in government debt and $35.4 billion in corporate debt.
• End of 2025: reports put total external debt at $82.2 billion after a record annual increase of $18.1 billion.
• April 1, 2026: a quarterly comparison also reports an $82.2 billion balance.
• July 1, 2026: total external debt reached $84.1 billion.
• September 29, 2026: the Central Bank's Uzbek publication was updated.

Corporate debt is not a government repayment obligation

The Central Bank explains that the corporate category includes borrowing by private businesses without state guarantees. Repayments must come from the funds of the borrowing companies and banks themselves.

In its explanation of repayment responsibility, the Central Bank states:

Such borrowing does not create government liabilities, and payments on these obligations are made from the own funds of the respective businesses and banks.

This separates direct budget obligations from corporate obligations. It does not establish that every corporate borrower faces the same repayment conditions. The published summary does not provide a complete breakdown of corporate debt by borrower, maturity, interest rate or currency.

The debt balance also should not be read as a simple total of new loans received. Reporting on the Central Bank's methodology says government external debt includes accrued but unpaid interest, while sovereign international bonds are valued using market prices on the reporting date. These accounting features can affect the recorded stock independently of new cash borrowing.

Why the public debt figures are different

The Ministry of Economy and Finance put public debt at $48.31 billion on July 1, up $4.82 billion, or 11%, from a year earlier and $1.46 billion, or 3.1%, since the beginning of 2026. External public debt accounted for $40.71 billion, or about 84%, while domestic debt was $7.6 billion, or about 16%.

The ministry's external figure is approximately $990 million below the Central Bank's $41.7 billion government external debt measure. The Central Bank series includes accrued interest and market valuation of sovereign bonds, but the published explanations do not reconcile the entire difference. The two measures should therefore remain separately identified.

The public debt ratio was reported at 27% of gross domestic product, compared with 26.3% in the first quarter. External public debt represented 22.8% of GDP and domestic debt 4.2%. Gross domestic product measures the value of goods and services produced in the economy; comparing debt with GDP helps show its size relative to the economy supporting it.

The reference date for an earlier 31.9% public debt ratio also differs across reports. One July account describes it as an earlier annual comparison, while the account of the 2025 results assigns 31.9% to the end of that year. Both indicate a higher earlier ratio, but they do not establish the same comparison period.

Who lends to the government

International financial institutions held $22.48 billion, or 55%, of external public debt in the ministry figures. Financial institutions associated with foreign governments accounted for $11.45 billion, or 28%, and international investors for $6.77 billion, or 17%. Small differences between these amounts and the total reflect the precision of the reported figures.

The World Bank was the largest individual institutional creditor at $9.12 billion, followed by the Asian Development Bank at $8.17 billion. Together, their $17.29 billion represented about 42.5% of the ministry's external public debt total. Other creditors included the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank at $2.32 billion and the Islamic Development Bank at $1.2 billion.

Among foreign government lenders, institutions from China accounted for $3.88 billion and those from Japan for $3.09 billion. France accounted for $1.3 billion, Germany for $725 million and South Korea for $693 million.

The creditor mix shifted modestly from the end of 2025. International financial institutions accounted for 56% then, foreign government institutions for 29% and investors for 15%. By July, the investor share had risen to 17%, with the amount increasing from about $5.85 billion to $6.77 billion.

Budget support takes more than half of external public debt

The ministry's allocation figures show $20.53 billion of external government debt assigned to state budget support, just over half of the $40.71 billion total. This was up from $19.838 billion at the end of 2025, an increase of about $692 million in the recorded balance.

The remaining allocations included $5.47 billion for fuel and energy, $3.72 billion for healthcare, education and information technology, $3.37 billion for housing and utilities, $3.34 billion for agriculture and water management, and $3.06 billion for transport and transport infrastructure. These are allocations within the debt stock, not amounts all newly borrowed during the first half.

Currency composition presents a separate consideration. US dollars accounted for 67.4% of external public debt, or $27.44 billion. Euros accounted for 9.6%, or $3.89 billion, and Japanese yen for 6.8%, or $2.75 billion. Exchange rate changes can alter the cost of servicing those obligations relative to government revenue collected in soums.

Domestic debt was also not entirely denominated in local currency. Reports give about $5 billion in soums and $2.38 billion in US dollars. Those rounded components do not fully reconcile with the $7.6 billion domestic total. The figures nevertheless show why domestic borrowing and borrowing in local currency are not interchangeable terms.

Exports improved outside gold, but imports grew faster

Uzbekistan exported $15.4 billion in goods and services during the first half of 2026, down 8.6% from the same period in 2025. The Central Bank attributed the decline mainly to lower gold exports, even as exports of goods excluding gold rose 27% and services exports increased 45%.

The bank's Uzbek language statement, updated on September 29, adds that goods imports rose 24% and services imports 21%. Total imports increased 24% to $28.8 billion, driven by machinery and equipment, vehicles, chemical and mineral products, and food products amid investment activity and strong consumer demand.

Imports exceeded exports by $13.4 billion and were about 1.87 times their value. Positive primary income of $1.9 billion and secondary income of $5.3 billion offset $7.2 billion of that gap, leaving a current account deficit of approximately $6.2 billion.

Primary income includes items such as investment earnings and compensation from work. Secondary income covers transfers without a corresponding exchange of goods or services, including personal transfers. The Central Bank reported growing international remittances but did not identify the entire $5.3 billion secondary income surplus as remittances.

The second quarter brought stronger exports and investment

Quarterly comparisons suggest that much of the first half's current account deficit had already accumulated by March. The deficit was reported at $5.79 billion in the first quarter and about $6.2 billion for the first half, implying roughly $410 million in additional deficit during the second quarter.

Exports rose from $5.6 billion in the first quarter to about $9.8 billion in the second. Imports increased from $13.9 billion to about $14.9 billion. Those figures imply a second quarter trade deficit of about $5.1 billion, smaller than the first quarter's $8.3 billion deficit.

Net foreign direct investment inflows reached $2.3 billion for the half year, including about $1.6 billion in the second quarter. Net portfolio investment inflows were around $2 billion, compared with only $4.1 million in the first quarter. Other investment recorded net inflows of about $1.5 billion, including roughly $400 million in the second quarter.

These investment categories are not all equivalent to external borrowing. Direct investment can include ownership stakes, while portfolio investment can include both shares and debt securities. The Central Bank reported a negative financial account balance of $7.5 billion under the IMF accounting framework. That accounting balance should not be interpreted automatically as capital flight or added to the current account deficit as another funding requirement.

Foreign assets still exceed liabilities, but the cushion shrank

Uzbekistan's external assets stood at $127.4 billion on July 1, against external liabilities of $114.1 billion. The difference, its net international investment position, was positive at $13.3 billion but had fallen 34% since the beginning of the year.

This measure is broader than external debt because liabilities include foreign equity investment as well as borrowing. A positive national position also does not mean that every company or public institution with a foreign debt has matching assets available to repay it.

External assets fell by $1.1 billion during the first half, while liabilities increased by $5.8 billion. The Central Bank attributed a $2.5 billion decline in international reserves to lower global gold prices, partly offset by a $1.4 billion rise in direct and other investment assets. Reserve assets stood at $63.8 billion on July 1.

A quarterly comparison puts the net investment position at $21.6 billion on April 1, implying a decline of $8.3 billion during the second quarter. The gold valuation effect is important: a lower dollar value of reserve gold is not the same as spending an equivalent amount of cash reserves.

A falling debt ratio depends on growth and exchange rates

Economist Mirkomil Xolboyev estimated total external debt at 48.5% of GDP in the second quarter of 2026. That was 4.4 percentage points below the first quarter and 7.4 points below the 55.9% ratio at the end of 2025. His calculation used economic output over the latest four quarters and the average exchange rate for that period.

Xolboyev attributed the decline to the economy's dollar value growing faster than debt. He cited real GDP growth of 8.5% and a 5% strengthening of the average exchange rate used in the second quarter calculation compared with a year earlier. A stronger soum increases the dollar value of output measured in local currency, helping lower the debt ratio even when the dollar debt balance rises.

He projected that external debt could fall to 45% of GDP by the second quarter of 2027 if current growth, exchange rate conditions and borrowing trends continue. That is a conditional estimate, not an announced government target or a guaranteed outcome.

The Central Bank's review cites the IMF's low debt burden assessment and the prevalence of concessional borrowing, meaning financing on more favorable terms than ordinary market loans. It does not provide a complete future repayment schedule or aggregate debt service figure. Those details are needed to judge payment pressure alongside the debt stock, GDP ratio and reserve balance. No next publication date is specified.

Key Points

• Total external debt reached $84.1 billion on July 1, 2026, up 16.5% from a year earlier.
• Corporate debt was $42.4 billion and accounted for about 59% of the annual increase.
• The Central Bank says corporate borrowing without state guarantees creates no government repayment obligation.
• The ministry reported public debt of $48.31 billion, including $40.71 billion external and $7.6 billion domestic debt.
• The first half trade deficit was $13.4 billion, while the current account deficit was about $6.2 billion.
• External assets exceeded liabilities by $13.3 billion, down 34% since the start of the year.
• Xolboyev estimated external debt at 48.5% of GDP; his projected decline to 45% by the second quarter of 2027 depends on continued growth and stable exchange rate conditions.