Myanmar Farmers Face Ruin as Fuel and Fertilizer Shortages Threaten Harvests

A Harvest Deadline Meets a Fuel Shortage

Myanmar's farmers are approaching the May monsoon with overdue rice crops, idle tractors and fertilizer prices that have nearly doubled. As of April 28, 2026, fuel on the black market costs about 12,000 kyat, or US$3, per litre, while the World Food Programme warns that reduced fertilizer use could cut agricultural production by 10% to 15%.

In the Ayeyarwady Delta, the immediate task is to bring rice out of the fields before rain and rising water damage it. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran has disrupted supplies to a country that imports approximately 90% of its fuel. Machines needed for harvesting and processing grain have fallen silent.

A farmer in the delta described the danger facing crops already waiting too long to be harvested.

Many of the crops are now overdue for harvest. If the tide rises or the weather worsens, it will be even more devastating for us,

Farmers can cut some crops by hand, but they still need fuel for threshing equipment that separates the grain from the harvested plant material. The same farmer explained that the problem involves both price and availability.

How can we afford these prices? Even if we could afford them, the fuel isn't available. It's almost impossible to find,

Those with money can use connections to get what they need, but farmers like us are the ones who suffer.

Myanmar enters this crisis after years of disruption following the 2021 military coup, continuing civil conflict and runaway inflation. Mandalay and other affected communities are also still recovering from the earthquake of magnitude 7.7 that struck in March 2025. The new shortages threaten both the harvest now in the fields and the planting season that follows.

How the Disruption Reached Myanmar

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow shipping passage between Iran and Oman. Oil, liquefied natural gas and fertilizer materials move through it to buyers around the world. Its temporary closure on February 28, 2026, interrupted supplies far beyond the Middle East, with vessel traffic dropping sharply from late February and maritime insurance costs rising.

The disruption removed an estimated 20% of global oil supply from circulation and pushed international prices up by more than 50%. Estimates of the strait's usual share of global seaborne oil trade range from roughly one fifth to one quarter. For Myanmar, reliance on imported fuel means that disrupted shipping quickly reaches petrol stations, fishing boats, rice mills and farms.

The agricultural calendar leaves little room to wait for supply chains to recover. Important dates in the crisis include:

• 2021: Myanmar's military coup began a period of continuing political and economic disruption.
• March 2025: An earthquake of magnitude 7.7 struck Mandalay, leaving households and businesses with substantial rebuilding costs.
• February 28, 2026: The Strait of Hormuz temporarily closed during the conflict between the United States and Iran.
• March 2026: Myanmar authorities introduced fuel rationing based on odd and even vehicle registration numbers.
• April 10, 2026: Min Aung Hlaing promised support for farmers during his oath taking speech as president.
• May 2026: The usual start of monsoon rains brings the deadline for vulnerable harvests closer.

Fuel shortages therefore affect two linked stages of food production. Farmers need diesel to gather and process the current crop, then machinery and fertilizer to prepare the next one. Losing income from the first harvest makes paying for the next planting season harder.

Six Hours in a Queue, Higher Prices Outside It

Yangon motorists have been queuing for up to six hours to obtain limited fuel allocations. Some towns and cities have reportedly seen stations run dry entirely. Official petrol stations have tried to maintain regulated prices, but the shortage has pushed buyers toward a black market charging more than twice official rates.

Authorities introduced an odd and even rationing system in March. Vehicles can buy fuel on alternate days according to whether the final digit of their registration number is odd or even. The system spreads purchases across different days while drivers continue to face restricted supplies.

The military council says Myanmar has approximately 50 days of strategic fuel reserves and expects 16 additional fuel tankers to arrive. The announcements gave no arrival dates for those tankers.

Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's military leader, made agricultural support a public priority during his April 10 oath taking speech as president.

reducing poverty and improving the lives of farmers is our main priority.

Amara Thiha, a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center's China Program, described a storage problem that leaves Myanmar dependent on frequent deliveries.

What makes it a little bit more difficult is we don't have storage facilities like Malaysia and Singapore,

Myanmar can't buy a lot and store it for a while. It has to rely on week-to-week imports coming in.

Limited storage exposes Myanmar to repeated changes in international supply and prices. Farmers needing fuel immediately have little protection when a shipment is delayed or stations cannot supply enough diesel.

Fertilizer Prices Threaten the Next Crop

Fertilizer supplies are being squeezed by the same Middle East conflict. Up to one third of global trade in fertilizer raw materials normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. With the waterway effectively closed, shipments of ammonia and nitrogen have dropped sharply and prices have surged.

Urea fertilizer, which supplies nitrogen needed for plant growth, cost 90,000 kyat per bag before the Iran war. Its price has since climbed above 170,000 kyat. Compound fertilizer, which supplies a mixture of nutrients, has risen from just over 100,000 kyat to more than 200,000 kyat per bag.

The World Food Programme says production expenses for farmers preparing for monsoon planting could reach twice last year's levels. It warns that a 50% reduction in fertilizer use during the current planting season could lead to a 10% to 15% decline in agricultural production.

Farmers facing these prices may buy less fertilizer or apply smaller amounts. That lowers their immediate spending, but it also reduces the nutrients available to crops during growth. The resulting loss of production would affect households earning money from farming and the markets supplying food to towns and cities.

Agriculture employs roughly 70% of Myanmar's rural population and forms the backbone of the economy. Years of mechanization have also narrowed the options for working without diesel. Many farming households no longer keep cattle or buffalo for fieldwork and depend instead on machinery powered by fuel.

Factories, Currency and Farm Debt

Myanmar has five state fertilizer factories, but only two remain operational. Together they produce about 40,000 tons annually against a national requirement of 1.6 million tons. Those figures put their output at just 2.5% of the country's requirement, leaving a large gap dependent on imports.

Inflation reached 20% last year and has risen again during the current crisis. The kyat has also weakened substantially against the dollar in black market currency exchanges. Importers consequently face greater difficulty securing the foreign currency needed to buy fuel and fertilizer abroad.

The Central Bank sets domestic reference prices and sells foreign currency to importers. Market participants say those official rates increasingly fail to reflect what buyers can actually obtain. In April 2026, the reference price for a bag of urea weighing 50 kilograms in Yangon was 94,000 kyat, while open market prices exceeded 150,000 kyat. Other local fertilizer prices put urea above 170,000 kyat.

Farmers commonly borrow to pay for each planting cycle and rely on the harvest to repay those loans. Many have yet to repay credit from last year's summer paddy season, leaving them unable to secure new financing as the next planting window approaches.

An agricultural supply shop owner in Naypyitaw said farmers were choosing cheaper fertilizer of lower quality or reducing application rates. Higher input costs, outstanding debts and uncertain prices for their eventual crops are squeezing farmers from several directions at once. A smaller harvest would leave less income available to repay debt or finance another season.

Workers, Rice Mills and Fishing Boats Lose Income

Migrant farmhands who travelled to the Ayeyarwady Delta for seasonal work are finding harvesting operations stalled. Without fuel for machinery, the shortage threatens their wages as well as the farmers' crops.

One worker described the prospect of returning home without the expected work.

If we can't get any fuel, what can we do? We cannot do our job. If there's no fuel, we will just have to go back home,

Other workers warned that a food shortage was a "real possibility" if diesel could not reach the region. Their concern connects the immediate interruption to harvesting with the supply of rice that households will need later.

Small rice millers are also struggling to keep operating as fuel costs consume their margins. These mills are important for farmers processing rice for their own consumption, so their difficulties reach beyond commercial sales.

Some fishermen have abandoned trips to sea because fuel is unavailable or too expensive to make the journey worthwhile. Fewer fishing trips mean lost earnings for crews and less food reaching markets.

The World Food Programme reports that diesel prices across Myanmar have risen by nearly 200% on average compared with levels before the crisis. A rise of nearly 200% means prices are close to three times their earlier level. Remote areas and regions affected by conflict, including Rakhine State, have experienced even steeper increases.

Mandalay Faces Another Blow During Recovery

Mandalay residents are confronting the fuel crisis while still repairing homes damaged by the March 2025 earthquake. Businesses had begun recovering a year after the disaster, but higher costs and shortages are again making daily survival harder.

A taxi driver in Mandalay described how rebuilding expenses and the new fuel shortage were combining.

The main problem is the cost of living. We were already struggling after the earthquake with the added cost of repairing our homes. One year after the quake, businesses were starting to recover. But now, with this fuel crisis, we are facing a huge struggle just to survive. Everything is connected - higher prices, shortage of goods and the lack of fuel.

Transport links these pressures together. More expensive fuel raises the cost of moving food and other goods, while restricted travel limits access to work and markets. Households can face higher prices at the same moment that their opportunities to earn money shrink.

Michael Dunford, the World Food Programme's country director for Myanmar, described the effect on people still recovering from the earthquake.

People who survived the earthquake have barely begun to stand again, and now another blow is knocking them back down,

The people of Myanmar have endured shock after shock - conflict, climate disasters, the devastating earthquake, and now a global fuel crisis.

For families already paying to rebuild their homes, rising food and transport bills are drawing on money that was needed for recovery. The fuel crisis is pushing communities back toward emergency survival needs.

Hunger Relief Becomes More Expensive

The World Food Programme says 12.4 million people in Myanmar, nearly one quarter of the population, already face acute hunger. Acute food insecurity means people cannot reliably obtain enough food to meet their immediate needs.

The agency requires US$150 million to assist 1.5 million people across Myanmar this year. That funding need, described as a gap in the response, comes as higher operating costs constrain how far assistance can reach.

Corinne Fleischer, the World Food Programme's director of supply chain, explained how transport disruptions reach household food budgets.

When supply chains are disrupted, it's felt when they cash out at the supermarket,

Delays and higher transport costs push up food prices, and families who spend 50 to 70 percent of their income on food are the first to go without.

The World Food Programme is planning distributions covering two months, buying food closer to the people receiving it and switching to assistance through cash where possible. These measures seek to reduce transport requirements and costs while keeping support moving.

Higher delivery expenses mean the same amount of funding buys less assistance. Myanmar's humanitarian response is consequently dealing with rising costs while a large population already needs food support.

A Wider Threat Across Asia and Beyond

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that the global food market faces a large supply shock that could last into early next year. Oil, gas and fertilizer disruptions are reaching economies across Asia, Africa and elsewhere that depend on imports.

UN estimates indicate that 9.1 million additional people in Asia could face acute food insecurity if the crisis persists. Globally, up to 45 million additional people could face acute hunger if Middle East disruptions continue, bringing the worldwide total to 363 million.

Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal are among countries introducing measures including fuel rationing, working weeks of four days and school closures to conserve supplies. In Thailand, some fishermen have reportedly stopped going to sea because diesel costs make operations uneconomic. Fuel pressures also threaten jasmine rice production, which requires extensive irrigation.

Máximo Torero, chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization, explained why farmers cannot simply postpone the growing season until prices fall.

The clock keeps ticking... the crop calendar is based on the climate and biological conditions of the countries. That we cannot change,

If the inputs keep going up, [farmers] will plant less and yields will be lower for the next half of the season.

Myanmar's approaching monsoon illustrates that time pressure. Fuel and fertilizer must be available when crops require them. Delays during harvesting or planting can reduce food supplies months after the initial shipping disruption.

Civilian Shortages and the Conflict Economy

Myanmar's continuing civil conflict adds another layer to the fuel crisis. Amara Thiha said the military maintains separate jet fuel reserves, leaving its air defense and air raid capabilities largely unaffected by civilian shortages.

The Stimson Center fellow described the relatively small share of national fuel consumption involved in those aviation requirements.

The military, they only require jet fuel - that's a very tiny portion compared to the whole country's consumption,

Resistance forces face different pressures, according to Amara Thiha, particularly where they rely on fuel moving across the border with Thailand.

For the resistance forces, that's going to be a huge blow,

Those groups along the Thai-Myanmar border may not be able to smuggle fuel as easily as before. The Thai government is now strictly controlling everything.

Restricted fuel access could affect the tactical balance in some regions. Civilian households, farmers and workers continue to bear the main burden through interrupted production, lost income and higher prices.

Myanmar's immediate agricultural problem remains the same across these pressures: the current rice harvest needs fuel before the monsoon, and the next crop needs affordable inputs during its planting window. Announced reserves and incoming tankers sit alongside shortages already disrupting that work.

The Essentials

• Myanmar imports approximately 90% of its fuel. Black market prices have reached about 12,000 kyat, or US$3, per litre, more than twice official rates.
• Ayeyarwady Delta farmers are struggling to harvest before monsoon rains typically begin in May. Fuel shortages affect tractors, threshing equipment and rice mills.
• Urea has risen from 90,000 kyat to more than 170,000 kyat per bag. Compound fertilizer has increased from just over 100,000 kyat to more than 200,000 kyat.
• The World Food Programme warns that cutting fertilizer use by 50% could reduce agricultural production by 10% to 15%.
• Only two of five state fertilizer factories operate, producing 40,000 tons annually against a national requirement of 1.6 million tons.
• Authorities introduced odd and even fuel rationing in March. Yangon motorists face queues of up to six hours, while the military council says it holds about 50 days of reserves and expects 16 tankers.
• Diesel prices have risen nearly 200% on average nationwide, with larger increases in remote areas and regions affected by conflict.
• About 12.4 million people in Myanmar already face acute hunger. The World Food Programme requires US$150 million to assist 1.5 million people this year.
• The crisis compounds disruption from the 2021 coup, continuing civil conflict, inflation and recovery from the March 2025 earthquake.
• UN estimates warn of 9.1 million additional people facing acute food insecurity in Asia and up to 45 million more facing acute hunger globally if the disruptions continue.